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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

Series Preview: Seattle Mariners @ Anaheim Angels

MARINERS (43-44) Δ Ms ANGELS (46-42) EDGE
HITTING (wOBA) -93.8 (30th) -9.4 -10.4 (17th)
Anaheim
FIELDING 25.4 (4th) - 11.7 (10th)
Seattle
ROTATION (tRA)
42.5 (3rd) 3.5 33.1 (4th) Seattle
BULLPEN (tRA)
3.7 (13th) 0.2 3.6 (14th)
Seattle
OVERALL(RAA)
-22.3 (19th) -5.6 38.0 (9th)
ANAHEIM
Running (BsR)
0.5 (12th) -
-2.5 (23rd)
Seattle

If Kyle Seager and Josh Bard start on Friday, the Mariners' entire infield defense could realistically be Blake, Josh, Justin, Dustin, Kyle and Brendan. Jack Zduriencik might have confused building a baseball team with assembling his America's Cup crew. Also, he apparently believes that he's either Swedish or working in San Francisco.

The Mariners are a Carlos Peguero for Mike Carp roster swap away from at least having an intriguing offense again. Not intriguing in the sense that it would be good, but in the sense that I would become more interested in watching them hit than I am in confirming the number of individual post-it notes in a 100 note pack. I have an interest in how well Justin Smoak, Dustin Ackley, Kyle Seager and Mike Carp hit. I have no interest in Carlos Peguero or Adam Kennedy or Chone Figgins.

Completely unrelated to any of this, I just realized that Josh Lueke (DOB: 5 Dec '84) and Cesar Jimenez (DOB: 12 Nov '84) are nearly the same age. I though Jimenez was like 30. Jimenez, incidentally, is having a good season in Tacoma's bullpen. I wonder what Rainier relievers hope for. Do they aspire to get called up to the Mariners to then not play? Or, based on the number that have fled the team, are their dreams occupied with fleeting desires to escape to another, more Baltimore-y, organization?

Mike Carp, meanwhile, was born on June 30. Baseball age is cut off on the midnight of June 30/July 1 barrier. So in baseball terms, this is Mike Carp's age-25 season. In real terms, he just turned 25 a week ago. In hypothetical terms, if Carp had been born a few hours later, this would be his age-24 season. Would you feel more interest in Mike Carp's potential Mariner future if he was only 24 instead of 25? I wouldn't because I have already reached my highest level of possible interest in Mike Carp, but ahhhhhh, just let him play! He can maybe hit! Find out if he can hit in Major League games! Real games, not flipping batting practice you weird men.

Star-divide

Thu 07 Jul 19:05

DOUG FISTER JERED WEAVER

Good news for Doug Fister and his run support complex! 

Fri 08 Jul 19:05

BLAKE BEAVAN ERVIN SANTANA

Blake Beavan's grades are based off his one start so I wouldn't go assigning any meaning to it. I present it only as a means as an overview of what he throws. Then again, if you want to assume a static and never-changing reality, go wild. Blake Beavan is the weirdest pitcher ever!

In a way, Ervin Santana is a lot like Michael Pineda, just with worse command. In that way, it's pretty encouraging how successful Ervin Santana has been with that skill set. Sure, outside of one season he hasn't been the sort of ace we dream Pineda will be, but average shouldn't be sold short though Santana's inconsistency is a sign of what kind of trouble Pineda could run into without a third offering. In another way, an injury-based way, no no no no no.

Sat 09 Jul 18:05

MICHAEL PINEDA JOEL PINEIRO

A battle of the Pines! By virtue of height alone, Michael Pineda is much more the Pine than Joel Pineiro could ever dream of in his numerous arboreal dreams.

Year two of Joel Pineiro in Anaheim is going less well than year one. I liked Pineiro's deal for Anaheim when he signed --even sort of wishing the Mariners had signed him instead-- and he's delivered almost exactly what I expected him to. The walks have slowly gone up while the ground balls have slowly come down. The hiccup for him this season has been a drop off in strikeouts, but that's entirely in called strikeouts as his swinging strike and strikeout rates are the same. Called strikeouts are fickle creatures and I'd expect Pineiro to get a few more than the current three he has had this season.

Sun 10 Jul 12:35

FELIX HERNANDEZ DAN HAREN

Of course we couldn't play the Angels and avoid seeing both Weaver and Dan Haren. At the conclusion of this series, the Mariners and Angels will have played nine times and six of those will have been started by either Weaver or Haren.

Comment 45 comments  |  3 recs  | 

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Yeah.
At the conclusion of this series, the Mariners and Angels will have played nine times and six of those will have been started by either Weaver or Haren.

Just one more reason why the Angels are annoying.

by Hopefulmsfan on Jul 7, 2011 1:43 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

While the Angels got to face the M's 4/5/6 starters 6 out of 9 times.

And yet the M’s just need to go 2-2 to keep leading the season series.

by Baconburger on Jul 7, 2011 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

Sorry if this has been covered somewhere else, or answered before, but...

I understand the black bar to be a sort of average or total. If that is the case, why is Doug Fister’s black bar for bats missed lower than each of his other pitches?

by ATM's34 on Jul 7, 2011 2:24 PM PDT reply actions  

It's a weighted average.

And each of the pitches are measured against only that pitch type, not the overall rate. Fister throws a lot of fastballs, which miss bats way less often than other pitch types do which brings his overall missed bat rate down.

by Matthew on Jul 7, 2011 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

Or, an example with actual missed bat numbers

Pitch – Fister – MLB SP Average
FA – 4% – 5%
SI – 4% – 4%
CH – 11% – 11%
CV – 7% – 9%
SL – 10% – 11%

Fister’s close to average on each of his pitches, but taken all together:

Fister’s overall SwStr rate: 5.8%
MLB SP avg SwStr rate: 7.8%

by Matthew on Jul 7, 2011 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ok that makes sense.

The fact that he throws a pitch with a low SwStr rate more often brings down the overall rate relative to the rest of the league.

And for some reason, I never looked at these as percentiles, even though it’s pretty obvious. Of course they are though, because it makes no sense for 50+% of pitches to miss bats.

by ATM's34 on Jul 7, 2011 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

So what do we know about Wedge?

He likes aggressiveness, hates walks, loves raw power. Therefore we get Peguero instead of Carp. Cust, with the 4th highest wOBA on the team, rides the bench. He loves over the top enthusiasm, so we get Ryan on a daily basis, even though he’s fallen to just over .200 BA for June and July with a OPS just over .500.

Ryan’s and Wedge’s eyes appear very similar to me. Both look as though they could be recalled to their home planet at any time.

by PackBob on Jul 7, 2011 2:45 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

It's hard to know if any of these things are true; Wedge has only been the Mariners' manager for a limited amount of time.

It’s only speculation to say that Peguero is starting solely because he’s a better power hitter than Cust or Carp. Also, of course Brendan Ryan is going to start on a regular basis; who else would?

by katal on Jul 7, 2011 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

I would think some other wine would go better with fruitcake than chardonnay.

I don’t know, Port maybe. Or a mulled/spiced wine.

Either way, Eric Wedge is that guy who gets fruitcakes for Christmas and then goes on a binge and only eats fruitcake till mid January. He doesn’t re-gift it like most people, and all of his family and friends know this, so they re-gift all their fruitcakes to him. Then around the 3rd week of January he says to himself “I will never eat another fruitcake ever again”, but everyone knows he’s fibbing. Because if there is one thing Eric Wedge loves, it is fruitcake.

by Craptastic-J on Jul 7, 2011 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm not sure about your wine choices

Isn’t mulled wine for skiers, the Germans (Gluewein) & their Nordic relatives (Glugg – spelling – from Ikea at Christmas) and port for people who like cigars and the English?

No, I’m pretty sure that Matthew is right; barring salmon dinners, chardonnay is the wine of choice of fruitcakes everywhere.

by BigMtnMonkey on Jul 7, 2011 6:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

Maybe it's the eyes

But I see him as more of a Mad Dog 20/20 kinda guy.

by VB1138 on Jul 7, 2011 5:00 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Well, it was meant to be a little bit tongue in cheek, given the last paragraph

But Wedge has stated repeatedly that he likes the fact that Peguero can hit the ball out at any time. He also has said that he thinks Pegero can be coached into a better overall hitter at the major league level. He’s also stated that he wants hitters to be more aggressive, and Cust is the take what is given type of hitter.

Wilson could be plugged in at shortstop at times. A lot of people don’t seem to like Wilson, but he is a premiere defender and not much different with the bat.

Of course, Wedge is stuck with team that just can’t hit, and being the manager, not any of us, does what he thinks will work. No problem with that. I’d just like to see Carp given more of a chance instead of Peguero, Ryan spelled sometimes, and Cust either played more or dropped. Cust’s power has been a disppointment, but at least he gets on base.

by PackBob on Jul 7, 2011 3:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well the confusing thing about this
Mike Carp, meanwhile, was born on June 30. Baseball age is cut off on the midnight of June 30/July 1 barrier

Is that the rules were changed from July 31 to June 30 only about six or seven years ago, so even though that didn’t affect Mike Carp, it could have affected many other players, especially those born in the Dominican Republic. Hey look mom, I got younger by one year for real!

by seattlebruin on Jul 7, 2011 4:01 PM PDT reply actions  

It's not an official MLB thing, it's just how most people figure baseball age.

I don’t know when it started, but I know it was used in the 80’s by Bill James, for purposes of comparisons and aging studies. Not everyone does it that way, some use age at start of baseball season, some use age at end of season.

by nathaniel dawson on Jul 7, 2011 5:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm actually looking forward to seeing Ackley and Seager hit.

Nevertheless, batters are only hitting .202 off him at home, and he’s only given up 12 ER’s in 52.1 innings pitched. I probably don’t need to say this but they’re going to have their work cut out for them.

Official prediction: The Angels will win the AL west this season.

by RexTookMyStash on Jul 7, 2011 4:16 PM PDT reply actions  

Sometimes I forget Weaver is the younger Weaver to the older Weaver, largely because I selectively forget about the older Weaver.

Then I un-forget about the older Weaver and :(

I don't want to achieve immortality through my work... I want to achieve it through not dying.

by Terminator X on Jul 7, 2011 6:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

Weaver is a weird word.

Weird word weaver.

I don't want to achieve immortality through my work... I want to achieve it through not dying.

by Terminator X on Jul 7, 2011 6:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

This game will go down as the Fister-Weaver showdown.

It’s unfair that I can’t craft any puns about Doug; although I can understand why at least.

Official prediction: The Angels will win the AL west this season.

by RexTookMyStash on Jul 7, 2011 6:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

Vernon Wells!

Because, $86 million!

It can always be worse, folks.

by cwel87 on Jul 7, 2011 6:54 PM PDT reply actions  

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