My post trade deadline Mariners top 25 prospect list
I know many of you hate prospect rankings and I understand why, but I'm a prospect junky and I know I'm not alone, so for the others who enjoy this type of thing, here's my updated M's top 25 list. I'm certainly no expert, but based on my understand of various scouting reports and performance, here's how I see it. I'd love to hear others thoughts on this. (I'm going to include Hultzen and Miller since I expect both to sign, but no other as yet unsigned draftees as most of the others are still pretty iffy signs).
Tier 1 (Solid A prospects, top 25 overall)
1) RHP Taijuan Walker - Pleasedontgethurtpleasedontgethurtpleasedontgethurtpleasedontgethurt
2) LHP Danny Hultzen - I wasn't a big fan of the selection at draft time, but I'm coming around on him. Still not the guy I would have taken but I think he's going to start racking up a lot of WAR very quickly for the M's.
Tier 2 (B+ prospects, all in top 40 to 70 range)
3) SS Nick Franklin - The concussion put a big damper on things, but suffice to say I a) think he sticks at short and b) believe more in the breakout full season at Clinton than the disappointing half season at High Desert.
4) LHP James Paxton - The command is still spotty game to game, but this guy misses bats with the best of them. Barring injury he'll see time with the M's in 2012.
5) LF Trayvon Robinson - Probably the next Randy Winn who doesn't post enough batting average to impress or hit for enough power to satisfy but racks up 3-5 WAR seasons as a plus to plus plus defensive left fielder in Safeco who does everything at least average offensively.
Tier 3 (B- prospects, top 100-200)
6) RHP Jose Campos - My latest prospect mancrush. Showing incredible control to go with strikeout stuff and strong GB tendencies. They say the peripherals need work, but suffice to say his is the most exciting US debut of a Latin pitcher the org has seen since Felix (no, he's not the next Felix). Could easily be a top 50 guy overall by mid 2012 if he can do this at HD or Jackson. They might have him at Clinton though.
7) RF Chih-Hsien Chiang - Like everyone else I want to see that he can continue his incredible 2011, but I'm cautiously optimistic it's not a fluke. Doesn't seem to have much defensive value and he won't walk a ton, but I believe the power is real. Should be Ichiro's replacement if the M's don't extend him.
8) 3B Francisco Martinez - Scouts love him, stats are lukewarm. A toolsy but inconsistent defender, he's always been young for his level...
9) SS Carlos Triunfel...just like this guy. Seriously the two most similar prospects in the system.
10) LF Guillermo Pimentel - The Appy seems to have figured him out. The power is real but he's got to cut down on the strikeouts. At least he's starting to walk a bit.
Tier 4 (everybody else)
11) 3B/LF Vinny Catricala - The bat might be for real, but his defense is a real handicap. Don't think he can handle third, and left field just got really crowded. Might be trade bait this offseason. Much like:
12) 2B/3B Kyle Seager - Profiles best at 2B where he could potentially be an average starter, just not for the M's.
13) SS Brad Miller - Probably the hardest guy for me to slot, I still don't really know what I think of him.
14) 3B Alex Liddi - I'm a bigger fan of his defense than some, but his strikeout issues are maddening. Easy kid to root for, but his time is running out.
15) LF Phillips Castillo - Starting to flash some patience to go with tons of doubles/triples power which will turn into HR's as he progresses. Still tons of K's, but he's just 17 and has plenty of time to work that out.
16) 2B Martin Peguero - Another 17 year old, he's probably a second baseman long term but he could be a bigtime asset with the bat at that position.
17) RF Alfredo Morales - Solid all around package of skills has thrust him onto the radar out of nowhere. Scouts seem to really like him.
18) SS/C Marcus Littlewood - Plenty of upside here if he sticks behind the plate, but I'm skeptical.
19) RHP Forrest Snow - A decent candidate to take the Mariners vacant 5th starter position, if the first couple candidates flop. Should be a solid backend starter fairly soon in the bigs.
20) RHRP Stephen Pryor - Really struggled to start the year but has been lights out of late. Probably the best relief prospect in the system at this point.
21) OF Johermyn Chavez - A respectable July has sort of put him back on the map, but his June was so terrible it hurts to look at the numbers. At 22 he's still young enough to put it together, but the shine has certainly worn off a bit.
22) LHP Jordan Shipers - The obscure late round draftee we were all thrilled the M's signed last year, turns out he was a year old for his grade so he's already 20. Has pretty good stuff and his performance has been solid so far (minus the walks), but let's face it, he's kind of the white Mauricio Robles. Which is a decent guy to have around, I guess, but not the kind of guy you do huge backflips over.
23) OF James Jones - Mr Second Half is going to half to show up in the first half one of these years or risk completely losing relevance.
24) RHP VIctor Sanchez - Just signed last week for nearly $3 million, probably deserves to be higher.
25) C/2B Jack Marder - The steal of the draft at just $200,000 in the 16th round, holding his own at High Desert and most scouts seem to think he'll stick behind the plate.
Next five (no particular order): 3B Yordi Calderon, RHP Jose Valdivia, OF Jabari Blash, RHP Ambioris Hidalgo, 1B Rich Poythress
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Quick shots, though I like the list overall:
- Liddi’s time isn’t really running out. He was just added to the 40-man last winter, and is getting his first taste of triple-A when he won’t turn twenty-three until two weeks from now, making him the youngest position player on the roster. He’s competing with a lot of guys for one spot, but that’s it.
- What I’m reading does suggest that Chiang’s power is real. I do remember him being a big deal in Taiwanese scouting way back when.
- Paxton struck out eight without a single walk today!
- Franklin apparently had mono :(
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Jul 31, 2011 11:53 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Franklin's been kissin' da girlies.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Aug 1, 2011 12:29 AM PDT up reply actions
Or they were passing around a 2-liter of soda or something.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Aug 1, 2011 12:32 AM PDT up reply actions
So you're saying Franklin's been kissin' da boysies?.... I can deal with that too...
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Aug 1, 2011 12:44 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Good stuff, thanks for the feedback Jay
Great point about Liddi. I guess I’m getting a bit hasty with him.
I have no recollection of Chiang whatsoever before this season, so that’s nice to hear that he has some scouting cache.
I saw that about Paxton (he and Campos both had impressive starts today).
So Franklin got mono after the concussion which has kept him out, or he had mono at HIgh Desert? And didn’t he have some sort of issue that caused him to lose tons of weight last season, too?
by dnc on Aug 1, 2011 1:02 AM PDT up reply actions
It was mono after the concussion.
Or I heard mono on the radio, where a couple weeks before some people were saying food poisoning. I think this is second bout with it, adding in last year, but we may be thinking of someone else.
Here’s an ancient SR on Chiang courtesy of the wayback machine and Taiwan Baseball Blog.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Aug 1, 2011 1:08 AM PDT up reply actions
You can only get chicken pox once, but the virus stays with you forever.
About half of all people have it reactivate as shingles at some point in their life. One of the herpes family of viruses.
by nathaniel dawson on Aug 1, 2011 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions
I really would've expected:
“more than you wanted to know”
by nathaniel dawson on Aug 1, 2011 5:32 PM PDT up reply actions
I google searched it but this is all I got
But to be fair, I knew that too. Or rather, I learned it recently while studying for boards.
by twelveoutof10 on Aug 6, 2011 11:20 PM PDT up reply actions
I really like how 3 of the top 10 are less than two day old Mariners.
Very very happy about the new blood.
If we assume puhtubnul from the Tigers is one of the three rumored names, where would he place on a list like this? Top 10 as well?
Depends which three rumored names you mean
I’m in the “It’s definitely not Castellanos” camp, meaning I expect it to be Smyly, Ruffin, Brantly or Fields. Fields was a longshot, and today’s mini-run on outfielders would seem to suggest it’s not him. Ruffin’s on the 25 man so he’d have to pass through waivers, which seems to render him unilkely.
Given that Smyly a) was one of their top three picks in 2010, and b) is the only one of said picks that is not easy to eliminate, I’d say it’s pretty likely him. Sources on both the Detroit and the M’s side seem to think that’s the case as well.
So where would Smyly rank? Anywhere from 8 to 11, depending on how you feel about the Latin trio at 8-10. For me, I’d probably put him at 10 since his upside is limited, but he’s a much safer bet to make the bigs and contribute than any of the three ranked 8-10.
If it’s Brantly he’d have to rank in the 15ish range, but I highly doubt it’s going to be him.
So yeah, chances are pretty good the M’s just picked up 4 top 10 caliber prospects for their system. Pretty nice couple of days, especially considering they still have League. It’s not like Jack’s never moved a closer during the offseason before.
by dnc on Aug 1, 2011 1:00 AM PDT up reply actions
Awesome, makes sense.
I was going off the rumored three of the top three picks, but that’s all pretty unclear, and knowing that Castellanos seems unlikely. I can be happy with “Possible Smyly, M’s 10th rated prospect”
Ruffin was sent back down before the trade, so no longer on the 25 man and can be a PTBNL
I still think it’s Smyly though, and I’d prefer the starter.
I did not know that
Thanks for the info. I’m with you, I’d much rather have Smyly. Anyone see any reports on how his stuff looked in his Double A debut?
by dnc on Aug 1, 2011 1:46 AM PDT up reply actions
I saw the box
I was asking if anyone had seen a report on his stuff?
Trayvon!
League average offense! From a corner outfield spot!
That’s a very exciting prospect after witnessing these last two years.
I hope I'm not repeating something everyone knows already
The deal with Chiang’s breakout, per BA, is “getting hooked up with a Chinese speaking nutritionist.” Sure, he needs to repeat the numbers and there are plenty of players whose gaudy AA line does not follow them to AAA. But its worth remembering that he’s still young for the league (avg age 24+) and seems to have pretty good contact ability, so its not like he’s Pegging at the plate.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Aug 1, 2011 6:44 AM PDT reply actions
Really enjoyed this, though im higher on Blash than others it seems. I like him more than Jones, for example.
Also intrigued watching Valdivia.
I could easily switch Blash for Jones
In fact, looking at it more, I think I agree with you.
by dnc on Aug 1, 2011 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions
Nice list overall, although I think you're a bit too high on Triunfel and a bit too low on Seager.
Seager, because of his solid defense at multiple positions, his excellent eye and bat control, and his success at every level of the minors, probably has the highest floor of any current Mariners prospect after Hultzen. I’d say that makes him a B-/C+ at least. Triunfel, well, he needs to demonstrate sustained excellent at AAA before we should place much hope or confidence in him.
I know I'm higher on Triunfel than most
I’ve just heard enough scouting reports that he’s really made progress with his body and subsequently his defense that suggest he could really stick at short. For me that defensive value is worth a lot, even if his floor is admittedly lower than Seager’s. I imagine your opinion will be that of the majority.
by dnc on Aug 1, 2011 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm curious about people's opinions on the following guys who were left off of dnc's list but still seem pretty interesting to me:
Mauricio Robles, 22: Yeah, he’s been hurt, but he was a B- prospect and one of our top 7 or so prospects at the beginning of the year and still has time to figure it out in AAA.
Greg Halman, 23: Still a prospect, techincally. He needs another year in AAA, but he has made some improvements in his approach and I’m interested in what he does in Tacoma this year.
Anthony Vazquez, 24: Pitching well in AAA right now, he looks like he could step into the rotation today and have a solid shot at being a decent 4th/5th starter.
James Gillheeney, 23: A bit old, but having a solid season with over a K an inning in High Desert
Julio Morban, 19: struggling somewhat in Clinton, but still has big potential
Erasmo Ramirez, 21: pitching pretty well in AA. I think Jeff said he could be a Twins-vintage Carlos Silva if things break right.
I would probably slot at least 4 of those guys in this top 25, removing some of the 18 and unders.
Probably Erasmo, Halman, Vazquez, and Robles.
follow @casetines
by Kenneth Arthur on Aug 1, 2011 8:52 AM PDT up reply actions
I know you're looking for other's thoughts but I'll still share mine
Robles – I was really high on him coming into the year but I’ve finally given up and accepted that he’s probably just a reliever. As relief prospects go he’s a good one, I guess, but there’s basically zero chance he’s ever starting games for the M’s, and probably not for anyone else.
Halman – I didn’t view him as eligible (along with Peguero) although you’re probably right that he still is. If he’s eligible I’d probably put him ahead of Jones/Blash, as his defensive value is real. I think he has a floor as a 4th OF with that shred of upside to be something far more. So I agree.
Vazquez – I wouldn’t be surprised to see him promoted to the big league rotation soon. Probably the one guy I overlooked the worst. He should be 18-22.
Gilheeney – Hard for me to get excited about an old for his league pitcher who doesn’t have exciting stuff.
Morban – On raw talent he’s probably top 15, but the injuries keep piling up. Not a prospect for me until he proves he can play at least 3/4 of a season.
Ramirez – Had the big velocity spike for a start or two and then settled back down. His control is still impeccable though not quite what it was at the lower levels. If someone has him in their top 25 I’m not really going to argue, but the ceiling is pretty low IMO.
by dnc on Aug 1, 2011 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions
Robles' complete lack of everything leads me to believe he's still injured or this was the type of injury that he's just not coming back from
I suppose it could just be rust, but he’s been really awful, and his stuff has looked really awful. I might slot him somewhere in the low 20’s, but he’s really got me worried. Might just need to go back on the DL for a while.
I’ve liked Vazquez for a while as a BOR guy and think he could be exactly the type of guy who succeeds in Safeco. I’d like to see him come up for Bedard’s start (though Snow would make me excited, though that’s unlikely.
Paxton has basically been walking less guys every time out.
He was bad at the start of the season and has been good lately
He's still not necessarily throwing a lot of strikes.
July 20th: 4.0 IP, 4 H, R, 3/5 K/BB, 4/2 G/F, 44 of 90 pitches for strikes
July 26th: 5.1 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 8/2 K/BB, 6/0 G/F, 48 of 90 for strikes
July 31st: 6.1 IP, 5 H, R, 8/0 K/BB, 2/3 G/F, 64 of 96 for strikes (against the team in the league with the worst plate discipline)
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Aug 1, 2011 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions
holy crap, I didn't realize that at all
so what gives then? Circumstantial evidence really pointed at his control improving – perhaps he’s now nibbling more in two strike counts or something?
by seattlebruin on Aug 1, 2011 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions
My guess is that either he's trying to expand the zone and better teams aren't biting or he's not hitting his spots as well as we think he is.
I don’t have any real data on how he’s doing when ahead or behind in the count, but to be more fair, some improvement is happening. Montgomery was the first start, and they’ve drawn 356 walks as a team (still ranked 4th). The start on the 26th was against Chattanooga, which has 401 (3rd), and then the last one is Mississippi, which has 327 (last).
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Aug 1, 2011 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions
I was looking at David Price today
I think he might be a good comp, his strike/ball ratio has gotten worse this year but his K’s are up and his BB’s are down.
Price's stuff is a couple notches better than Paxton's
So not sure it’s a good comp from that perspective.
by dnc on Aug 7, 2011 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Wasn't supposed to be a comp from that perspective
Just a guy at the ML level who has thrown more balls while walking less people. Better stats and video at the ML level so if someone wanted to dig deeper that would be a good place to start.
I think you're underselling Kyle Seager by quite a lot, but otherwise a good list.
And I’m guessing you don’t consider Beavan eligible for this list, or that he won’t be eligible by the time the season is over.
Correct about Beavan
I didn’t include anyone currently in the majors. I actually like Beavan quite a bit.
by dnc on Aug 1, 2011 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Bad news, kids. Jack Marder's not sticking at catcher.
Oregon had some atrocious catchers this year, and he didn’t play there then, even when the team was absolutely stacked in the middle infield (both shortstop KC Serna and second baseman Danny Pulfer got drafted; Pulfer’s a really, really nice guy with a pretty cool story, for what it’s worth). Marder broke a finger this year anyway, so I’m surprised he’s performing well at the moment.
I write for Stumptown Footy, SB Nation's Portland Timbers blog.
That seems hasty considering he just started catching and has barely logged any time there.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Aug 1, 2011 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions
He started the conversion before this season, but he still didn't have much of an opportunity behind the plate.
It may have been the injuries, but it wasn’t as if there was a luminary behind the plate.
Here’s a good story about the transition that ran in the Emerald last October.
I write for Stumptown Footy, SB Nation's Portland Timbers blog.
by thehemogoblin on Aug 1, 2011 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions
I've read a few reports that say differentlly
He looks really smooth behind the plate in the video I’ve seen. I think he has a real shot at sticking.
by dnc on Aug 1, 2011 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions
Sounds like you're an Oregon fan
Have you seen this? Love the nickname.
by dnc on Aug 1, 2011 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions
That's pretty ridiculous; I preferred the ODE's "Jack of All Trades," however.
I write for Stumptown Footy, SB Nation's Portland Timbers blog.
by thehemogoblin on Aug 1, 2011 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Great list!
The only thing I might disagree with, although it hardly matters, is he Randy Winn comp for Trayvon Robinson. The only similarities between them are they are both African-American, switch-hitting outfielders. And Randy Winn actually had a very respectable (.284) career batting average, and only struck out 14.7% of the time. I expect Robinson to strike out much more than that
I think he was comparing Trayvon to Randy Winn in terms of overall value (in WAR) and potential for being underrated by most fans.
First comp I thought of was Al Martin
At least the good Al Martin of 1993-1997:
.289/.353/.461
Averaging 22 stolen bases over that span. Defensively, not too similar.
by Ben Tumbling on Aug 2, 2011 12:01 AM PDT up reply actions
Shin Soo Choo circa 08-09
Before he really cut the strikeouts.
Good corner OF range, solid eye, nice pop. Trayvon might not hit for quite as much average, and doesn’t have the arm, but otherwise Choo’s probably his best case scenario.
by dnc on Aug 2, 2011 8:51 AM PDT up reply actions
I've heard/read Mike Cameron
Speed, power, strike-outs, and range.
Interesting comp
Pretty sure he won’t have the range, but few do. I’d be thrilled if he’s another Cameron.
by dnc on Aug 2, 2011 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions
I threw that one out and kind of like it.
I think his overall tools probably aren’t as good, but they’re appreciably close and he can switch hit.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Aug 2, 2011 11:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Not quite Mike Cameron is still pretty nifty.
How come you can do all this other great shit, but you can't lie the fuck down and sleep?
by JAH on Aug 4, 2011 9:35 PM PDT up reply actions
CF range, LF arm
The defensive profile is what inspired the comp. Definitely not saying it’s perfect, and your point about the K’s is well taken.
I don't like the Cameron comp
Mike Cameron was an all-world defensive CF, and derived a large chunk of his value from his defensive play.
Robinson is a player who is described as a CF/LF. It sounds like he can play the position, but will be slightly below average there.
Cameron was a power and walks batter, the current theory on Robinson is that his one power hitting year (this year) is largely an Albuquerque park illusion.
I think Robinson can be valuable, but smiles alone do not a good comp make. (Easy to kibbitz: I don’t have a comp to propose.)
I don't think he's a LF defensively
at least not because of his range. Everyone seems to think he has CF range but might end up in left because of a poor arm.
That said, I don’t think he has Mike Cameron’s range out there either.
He was a LF in the upper minors because they already had Matt Kemp and didn't think they were going to move him.
That was the only reason.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Aug 7, 2011 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions
I would think so
Whether it’s Smyly, Ruffin or Brantly whoever the PTBNL is is almost assuredly going to be a top 25 guy. Without looking at it too in depth I’d say Smyly would be in the 11 to 13 range, Ruffin would be 15 to 18, and Brantly would be 17 to 20 or so. None of them would be huge impact guys, but Ruffin would be the best reliever in the system, Brantly would be the best catcher in the system and Smyly would be…well he wouldn’t be the best anything in the system, but he is the best prospect of the three. So all three are interesting for different reasons.

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