Franken-Ackley (or, Improving Infield Defense via Smarter Positioning)

by oneiric232 on Jun 4, 2011 3:49 PM PDT

Greetings!

/Cue Law and Order Theme

In Lookout Landing there are lurkers who rarely post. Some sporadically decide to come out of the woodwork and contribute an idea.

These are their stories.

*DUN DUN*...

With the promise of Dustin Ackley on his way to the big club "soon," I've begun to do what I'm sure must be a novel idea for any Mariners fan - posture about what we should expect from the kid upon him manning the keystone. That of course has been played out to Dead Horse© status by now. In short, expect an offensive skillset centered on an elite eye that should translate well to the majors and a defensive skillset that... well yeah. About that.

Most accounts so far have not been peachy. I find myself repeatedly chewing on the bitter sinew of a mental image called "Dustin Ackley, -10 UZR/150" and then wondering how awesome it would be if we could somehow combine Ackley's bat, Brendan Ryan's glove, some neck bolts and electrodes and a creepy castle surrounded by lightning. Franken-Ackley! Sweeet.

That's what brings me to my "Aha!" moment and the point of this point (I have bolts! Who has a castle we can borrow?). But really, what if we could pair Ryan's defense - if at least only partially - with the swift justice of Ackley's stick?

Here's what I'm thinking:

As one would expect, batters have a tendency to yank pitches to their pull side more often than they hit they hit the ball the other way*. Among balls hit to the middle infield by LHB, 62% got yanked towards second base. For righties, 66% were pulled to short. From this I believe it's safe to assert that by looking at the handedness of the batter we can more often than not guess who, between the two, is more likely going to get the fielding chance.

What if we leveraged it? Say the Mariners adopted a scheme similar to strong and weak-side linebackers in football. When a RHB is at the plate, keep Ryan at short and Ackley at second. When a LHB steps up, shift Ryan, the better defender, over to the pull side at second base and let Ackley cover the weak side at short. Does it buy us anything?

For this hypothesis I pegged Ackley as crummy at -10 UZR/150 at second base (better than what Figlet did for us over there last year, for a frame of reference) and Ryan as elite at +10 UZR/150 at shortstop. Then, applying straight positional adjustments between the two (where shortstop is five runs "harder" than second base at +7.5 runs versus +2.5 runs) I asserted that Ryan would translate as +15 at second and Ackley would duff it up as -15 at shortstop.

Using overly-simple math for an initial rough estimate:

66% of a +10 Strong-SS = +6.6 runs

33% of a -15 Weak-SS = -5 runs

62% of a +15 Strong-2B = +9.3 runs

38% of a -10 Weak-2B = -3.8 runs == A net positive of 7.1 runs.

I attempted to dive down and get fancy with the math to account for things like the fact that there are more RHB than LHB so more chances go to short (and so on and so forth) but it always comes out to the same ~7 runs area. It pushes up towards 10 runs if you assume Ackley will be worse than -10 UZR/150.

In conclusion, if my math if close to correct, it seems that we could mitigate the potential defensive weakness of Ackley (or any weak defender paired with a strong defender) to the tune of almost a full win simply by having them switch sides of the diamond to match handedness of the batter. What do you think? Crazy idea or next open letter to pass into the dugout?

*Interesting tidbit: while there are large pull tendencies for the infield, there's absolutely none for the outfield, for either RHB or LHB. I wonder why?

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Comments

Almost certainly impractical.

Given the many other duties of middle infielders such as wheel plays, covering on stolen base attempts, turning double plays, taking cut off throws and the like, you really wouldn’t want to be shifting those responsibilities with each new batter.

Still, interesting thought concept.

by Matthew on Jun 4, 2011 4:19 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs

Could be used similar to a shift maybe.

Only flip them in situations where there is nobody on to limit the responsibilities or only against certain batters with above average pull rates.

by wetzelcoal on Jun 4, 2011 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions

Impractical, given the reasons Matthew stated, but intriguing for sure.

It’s sort of like a defensive shift in the infield. I like the idea, but (always the but), it may be better suited for two veterans. It just seems a bit much to ask for a rookie second baseman/shortstop. It makes a lot of sense to me for veterans in both positions where there is a noted weakness. Please keep submitting, I like your writing.

by TrustBaseball on Jun 4, 2011 10:47 PM PDT up reply actions

Very interesting idea, but as Matthew pointed out above, it's not likely to be "passed through the dugout."

Ackley’s got his hands full learning one position, and even though SS is similar to 2B, it doesn’t seem wise to stick him in an even more unfamiliar situation.

You should post more! I like your writing style.

"Satisfaction is the enemy of success." SanFranPreps

by perfectstrat on Jun 4, 2011 4:51 PM PDT reply actions

This is a pretty interesting concept. Regardless of if it is actually practical or not, I'd like to see you post some more ideas in the future.

by Shmelix Shmernandez on Jun 4, 2011 5:05 PM PDT reply actions

"Interesting tidbit: while there are large pull tendencies for the infield, there's absolutely none for the outfield, for either RHB or LHB. I wonder why?"

It’s the angle of the bat when it contacts the ball. Next time you hold a bat in your hand and swing it, you’ll notice that the bat is angled downward away from you. Imagine if the ball is hitting slightly above the centerline of the barrel, and you’ll see that the ball will rebound up in the air, and off to the opposite field. Imagine that it now hits under the centerline, and you’ll see that the ball will tend to be pulled on the ground.

Here’s a nifty little article by Matt Lentzner that does a much better job of explaining it than I do.

by nathaniel dawson on Jun 4, 2011 5:23 PM PDT reply actions

Interesting

Thanks for the link.

by oneiric232 on Jun 4, 2011 6:09 PM PDT up reply actions

Agreed

The thought crossed my mind and I agree it’s something that couldn’t be implemented on a whim or over a single Spring Training. Figlet and Lopez made that point all too clear. If it were to be implemented it would have to take time so the middle infielders could properly develop at both positions.

And yeah, that probably won’t happen for all of 7.1 runs. Maybe it would if it was more like 20 or 30 runs… and it might be. We just haven’t proved it yet!

I’m curious how much the calculated run savings would increase if the OPS on pulled infield balls was significantly higher than pushed ones and that was factored in. I know that yanked outfield balls are on average way more damaging than opposite field shots. Something to ponder…

by oneiric232 on Jun 4, 2011 6:03 PM PDT reply actions

How fitting

The newbie with the reply fail. That was for Matthew’s comment.

by oneiric232 on Jun 4, 2011 6:06 PM PDT up reply actions

One issue I'd have with this is Ackley's arm strength.

One of the reasons he went from the outfield to first base in college was because of a Tommy John surgery. I think it would be advisable to not put him in a position where longer, more strenuous throws would be necessary.

I do, however, like how you’ve taken the initiative to at least hack out the numbers and put a framework in place for this. This concept could make a lot of sense in an ideal world, but, as anyone who comments here can attest, the Seattle Mariners are far from ideal.

I write for Stumptown Footy, SB Nation's Portland Timbers blog.

by thehemogoblin on Jun 4, 2011 6:09 PM PDT reply actions

I like the thought in very specific circumstances

It probably wouldn’t work most of the time because of what Matthew said, but there are a few game states where it might be a reasonable strategy. I like the concept of covering for bad defenders in prime hitting locations with creative shifting based on the hitter’s profile, definitely. I know teams do custom shifts based on the hitters hit locations but do they make adjustments like this for their own defensive vulnerabilities in their shifts too? It’s an interesting question.

by OlSalty on Jun 4, 2011 6:18 PM PDT reply actions

I could see doing it more in situations where the roles are less specific so, the outfield.

It would be awfully neat to always play your best corner outfielder according to the batter-specific spray tendency.

by abender20 on Jun 4, 2011 10:53 PM PDT up reply actions

Neat idea on paper

I wonder how a player would react to being the worse half of such a situation- would a Dustin Ackley be insulted by moving to whichever position was less likely to have a ball hit to him? Would that cause free agent middle infielders to avoid us like the plague?

Determined, Jonesing Commentor

by Corco on Jun 4, 2011 7:07 PM PDT reply actions

ex-Royals minor league pitcher Disco Hayes blogged about the same thing a couple years ago,

except with the corner outfielders. I can’t seem to find it but with some Google-fu I bet someone might.

by Double06 on Jun 4, 2011 8:32 PM PDT reply actions

Though I could be wrong.

I seem to recall a similar situation being discussed re Holliday and Berkman flip flopping LF and RF based on the size of the field when the Cards signed him to play the outfield. Doesn’t have the same implications as they don’t have all the extra plays to make, but I did wonder why teams don’t do it. I had one of my friends in the US try and explain to me why you put your second best outfielder in right rather than left but I didn’t really understand it.

by Aussie Mariner on Jun 4, 2011 9:53 PM PDT reply actions

Maybe because everything here drains clockwise as opposed to counter-clockwise.

No, that doesn’t make any sense.

by TrustBaseball on Jun 4, 2011 10:52 PM PDT up reply actions

Was it 2001 that we did this with Buhner and Ichiro?

I remember one series in New York they played Ichiro in left and Buhner in right.

by BigR on Jun 5, 2011 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions

Ichiro has never played in LF

I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul - Invictus

by EequalsMc2 on Jun 5, 2011 5:36 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm really quite sure this happened.

Playoffs maybe?

by BigR on Jun 5, 2011 7:06 PM PDT up reply actions

Here we go

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA200110220.shtml

by BigR on Jun 5, 2011 7:09 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Looks like it was just that game though.

by BigR on Jun 5, 2011 7:10 PM PDT up reply actions

Hasn't Ackley's defense been way, way better this year?

I think this is a really cool idea though.

by Kirk on Jun 5, 2011 12:49 PM PDT reply actions

Depends on who you ask.

According to some, “nobody thinks he’ll stick at 2B”.
According to others, “he looks fine”

by Matthew on Jun 5, 2011 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions

Thanks for the votes of confidence all

I’ve got a notepad full of off-the-wall thoughts like this. I’ll definitely try to put more fanposts up in the future!

(As time permits… got a wedding next weekend. And then the weekend after I’m… crap, I forgot. I was something mildly relevant I think? OH YEAH! I’m only flying from NY to SEA to see all three games against Philly!!! Bring it!)

by oneiric232 on Jun 5, 2011 6:35 PM PDT reply actions

I think assuming that Ryan would get better at second base is premature.

I feel like having them switch every batter could cause a lot of problems, it would be hard to readjust every AB to make a different throw. It might even make both of them worse at their normal positions, making throws from SS could screw up Ackley’s mechanics at 2b when he switches back. But you used very conservative estimates for Ackley’s defense (i highly doubt he’ll be as bad as you posted) so it does seem pretty plausible that there could be a benefit to this. It’s an interesting idea. I feel like it would be a lot easier to do in the outfield. Have ichiro sprint over the left field when a right handed pull hitter comes up. It would be funny to watch.

by Sambearpig on Jun 6, 2011 1:27 AM PDT reply actions