Series Preview: Seattle Mariners "@" Florida Marlins
by Matthew on Jun 24, 2011 2:30 PM PDT
in Seattle Mariners Previews
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Print| MARINERS (37-38) | Δ Ms | MARLINS (33-42) | EDGE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HITTING (wOBA) | -63.5 (30th) | -1.9 | -18.2 (22nd) | Florida |
| FIELDING | 18.7 (4th) | 1.5 | -2.5 (17th) | Seattle |
| ROTATION (tRA) |
33.6 (2nd) | 5.1 | -21.4 (24th) | Seattle |
| BULLPEN (tRA) |
0.7 (18th) | -1.7 | 11.7 (7th) | Florida |
| OVERALL(RAA) |
-10.5 (17th) | 3.1 | -30.4 (22nd) | SEATTLE |
| Running (BsR) |
-0.9 (16th) | - | -5.0 (27th) | Seattle |
The Mariners play below average and take a series from the Phillies. Then they play overall above average and are swept by the Nationals. There is so much complexity, so much randomness, in baseball --in all reality truthfully-- that while I try not to begrudge the desire to reduce things down into simple story lines and arcs, it just misses out on so much detail. And it's detail that's beautiful. Monochrome may be easy to grasp, but we shouldn't be content with easy. We should always strive for depth, because why else concern ourselves? The prize isn't so much in the knowing, it's in the puzzle.
The Mariners lost three times to the Nationals. There will be other opportunities. Other games, including these coming up. Baseball is a game, I believe, fundamentally different from our collective sports mindset in that I do not think that effort really offers much chance to impact the game. Football, soccer, hockey, basketball, boxing, lacrosse and others are all examples where effort can indeed matter. Arenas where the nebulous "hustle" can actually apply. In those competitions, I see validity in "statement games" or "turning the corner". I don't see that in baseball. No amount of will power is going to enable Chone Figgins to start hitting in the middle of the season. It's skill and luck. Felix might be able to throw faster on command, but that's not the same as running faster. There's no guarantee that a faster pitch will be better.
If the Mariners fall apart and become the 75-win team we mostly expected them to be, it will not be because they blew a 5-run lead to Washington. It will be largely because they had a talent base on the roster that amounted to about 75 wins.
Fri 24 Jun 19:10
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| FELIX HERNANDEZ |
RICKY NOLASCO |
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It hasn't garnered as much notice, since wins and losses ultimately drive the conversation over performance, but the Mariner starters have put together another nifty run of quality starts. Over the previous seven games and 50 innings pitched, only seven runs (earned or otherwise) have crossed the plate against the team's starters. That's a RA of 1.26 along with an outstanding 43 strikeouts and just 11 walks or hit batters.
Felix's start opposite Vance Worley is the weakest link of those seven as three runs crossed the plate against Felix. In fact, only once this season has Felix limited opposing batters to zero runs while he's been on the mound. The Marlins have three hitters worth paying attention to for their prowess: Gaby Sanchez at first, Logan Morrison in left and Mike Stanton in right. Navigate around that trio, and Felix could cruise through the rest.
Sat 25 Jun 19:10
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| JASON VARGAS* | CHRIS VOLSTAD | |
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In contrast, Jason Vargas has three starts already this season in which he has allowed zero runs through nine innings. There's an obvious correlation between allowing home runs and allowing runs overall, but in games (8) in which Vargas keeps all the balls in the yard he has allowed zero runs (4 times), one run (3 times) or two runs (just one). In games (7) which have featured a home run allowed, he's allowed 3 (once) , 4 (once), 5 (twice), 6 (twice) and 7 (once) runs.
I know we've stated before how Vargas seems a tad bi-polar in that he seems to get hit hard or not at all. This might be where that perception comes from.
Sun 26 Jun 19:10 |
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| DOUG FISTER | ANIBAL SANCHEZ | |
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Anibal Sanchez broke out last season when he finally got his walk rate under 10%. He's lowered it even further this season and pushed his strikeout rate over 25% to boot. That's a potent combination and Sanchez is a tough opponent. However, you never know when someone is going to wake up feeling sore or just off or be confused by what all those people in the seats are doing watching you. Maybe Sanchez is like a bird and us fans can distract him with noise. I encourage you to go to Safeco and squawk at Anibal Sanchez. It'll totally work I swear.
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Give'em Hell
signed,
A Bitter Giants Fan.
Obviously any links in the above post are probably NSFW
The baseball gods do not always punish the wicked but they will not just allow people to spit in their faces -- Joe Posnanski
Kudos, You are a sick, sick man, but you are very good at it -- wcw
Why are you bitter?
Believe Big! I mean HUGE... believe Gigantic! like the Titanic.
Mariners Baseball: Believe Big.
by Robert Praetor on Jun 24, 2011 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Some dude named Buster got a booboo from a guy who now has back spasms.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jun 24, 2011 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions
If not hustle, then focus?
It seems clear now that Ichiro is a different player now than prior to his day off. Are we allowed to say the day off and Ichiro’s uptick in production were examples of causation and not correlation? Not that it couldn’t be, but it would quite the coincidence if that’s what we decided to chalk it up to.
No. How could it be any less relevant to chalk it up to "Ichiro had spicy tuna roll every day since" than to say it was the day off?
I don’t understand why Ichiro would have lost focus in his 11th season in the major leagues and 18 seasons of professional baseball, that this was the time he finally lost focus?
“Hey Ichiro, we’re actually competing this year in June!”
“What? I’m sorry, I just saw a butterfly. Hey Franklin, look at this butterfly.”
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by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 24, 2011 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Care to elaborate?
Or are you just going to dismiss someone’s comment as “idiotic” and leave it at that?
In choosing to counter someone's point,
I think it makes sense to not immediately jump to obnoxious and irrelevant hyperboles.
On the parts of this that are reasonable, I’d say stating Ichiro’s effort and focus are constant would be off-base as we’ve seen him give less than what we’d expect of other players as he’s let balls fall in front of him.
I think you're missing Humbled's point entirely.
You wrote:
It seems clear now that Ichiro is a different player now than prior to his day off.
No it isn’t. The only thing “clear” is the results of his at bats. He’s doing better now than he was before the day off.
What you want to do is attribute the day off as a correlating factor. In what way would we do that? Based on the results? What Humbled is trying to ask you is why is it only the day off the matters? What if Ichiro’s refound success is due to something completely nonsensical? What if it’s due to nothing at all?
It seems strange to state factually something that cannot be proven except by circumstance. That’s the very definition of “circumstantial evidence”.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jun 24, 2011 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Perhaps I would've been better off to remove the word clearly,
as I’m only attempting to raise the question based on information that’s available. Again, in countering someone’s point I would bring what’s available as opposed to jumping to far-out hypotheticals, if this could even be considered an example of such.
The only thing I’m trying to point to is that the day off definitely happened, a rise in Ichiro’s production definitely happened and that luck definitely happens—and the day off may be a more plausible explanation than luck. That it’s a possibility. If the idea that immeasurable factors impact a baseball game is untouchable, then I apologize.
Relax a bit.
We’re not angry trolls here.
But we do appreciate arguments be directed by facts and evidence. As you stated, the only facts we have are that Ichiro wasn’t doing well before, then had a single day off, and now is doing better. If we simply accept that this is all the information required to make a conclusion, then your supposition looks obvious. However, there is always more information, and in this case, as Humbled pointed out below, Ichiro has had stretches of good at bats that follows in line with what he’s done since the day off. We also have information that shows that days off don’t necessarily help other players, so we can’t automatically assume that a day off is, by itself, a helpful factor. I’m sure it helps in various ways: rest being the most obvious. But to go farther than that requires more.
The truth is, we’re overanalyzing this. Ichiro was good at the start of the season, got really bad for a very un-Ichiro like stretch of time, then got good again. Do we really need to acquire a reason as to why he’s gotten back to good again in order for us to accept that he’s back good again? Is there some need for us to find import in the day off that requires such discussion?
Frankly, I just don’t see the need to argue about it in the first place.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jun 24, 2011 4:59 PM PDT up reply actions
And I'm not the 'goddamn statistics!' guy either,
but only brought up the Ichiro example when attempting to open dialogue on Matt’s point that all of baseball is can be scaled down to skill and luck. We don’t know or can’t measure so much of what’s going on, but that doesn’t mean it’s not there. Lumping it all in under ‘luck’ seems misleading to me. But, meh.
It was never my intention to imply that baseball is 100% skill + luck
See: “I do not think that effort really offers much chance to impact the game” coming before the sentence you appear to be referencing. It was quasi-short hand because I felt my point had already been established that I think effort is less rewarded, not entirely meaningless, in baseball.
Furthermore, me implying that would be a rather hypocritical statement coming right after the first paragraph.
I think everyone here has already said their peace and I'm not going to get into it as it seems we've come to an understanding.
My only issue was “Is it safe to call this causation?”
How could we possibly call a day off causation? Even if he hit .400 for the rest of the year.
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by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 24, 2011 5:43 PM PDT up reply actions
I didn't say it was impossible. I said "How could we possibly say its causation?"
How can we possibly quantify a day off with causation?
If Ichiro started hitting right-handed, we could see the differences in his numbers as causation because he moved to the other side of the plate, but how do you quantify a day off? Not even Ichiro could say with 100% certainty that a day off is why he’s been hitting the ball well over the last 11 games. It might be his opinion, but we can’t go back in history and not give him the day off to see how the following 11 games would play out.
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by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 24, 2011 6:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Wouldn't you then need a control group to compare it too?
If you did, that would appear to be a fairly large project. Just identifying players off days and building a database for all that info, checking to make sure they didn’t have pinch hit appearances or late inning defensive replacement duties off the bench and such.
That's only if Doc lets us borrow the Delorean.
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by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 24, 2011 6:12 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, this is impossible. I understand where you're coming from.
It isn’t impossible for the day off to have caused Ichiro to play better, but it is impossible to quantifiably discern beyond all doubt that this immeasurable factor had said impact.
I’d say it’s likely that the two events, Ichiro’s off day and the ensuing uptick in production, are related as opposed to independently correlating but it’s impossible to measure.
I’m saying x caused y. You’re not saying it didn’t, just that I can’t say that.
It's total and utter randomness
Ichiro’s day off wasn’t a magic potion. Nor have Figgins’ been.
by bookbook on Jun 24, 2011 2:46 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
There has been such a dramatic difference in productivity that I'm inclined to believe it did *something* to help Ichiro
But I still feel like the most influential reason for Ichiro’s recent success is much more luck on balls in play than he had prior to his day off.
I think if anything...
it inspired Ichiro to stop screwing around and pick up more hits or else he might find himself sitting more frequently (thus decreasing his chances at picking up more hits, so that he might reach 200 again this year.)
I don't know that it can be ruled out.
So often we try to remove the mental side to the game because it’s impossible to measure. Having been at a few of the games it didn’t seem like balls just finding holes or falling in. He started driving the ball with much more authority after the break.
Would it be so bad that a player sat down, seriously looked at how bad he’d been and then actually had the opportunity to say “Since then I’ve been good and that’s all that matters.”? Why is that less likely than him stringing together a run of multi-hit games and having it perfectly, out of all 162 games, line up with that one he sat for?
In his last 11 games, Ichiro has 20 hits.
In 11 games between April 19th and April 30th of this year he accumulated 21 hits.
There was no magic spell. He’s still Ichiro and if there’s a decline this year, its because he’s getting old. His hitting streak is nothing new however.
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by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 24, 2011 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
See, this makes sense.
As an in-person observer I saw Ichiro driving the ball more—especially compared to the slump leading up to the benching—and thought the four doubles in three games shortly after that streak were an indication.
Eh, whatever. I look forward to rooting on skill and happenstance.
Sure, but that's close to his usual season best (21-24 in any 11 game stretch)
From 2008-2010 his worst 11 game stretch was 7 hits in 11 games, and that was a very brief dip. His worst ever career stretch was 4 hits in 11 games (2003, arguably his worst season). His second worst until this year was 7. His season maxima are usually around the low 20’s, but his best ever was 30 hits in 2004.
His career mean is around 16 hits in 11 games, with a standard deviation of around 4. So he followed a -3 sigma stretch (4 hits) with a +1-ish standard deviation (20 hits).
So in any 11 game stretch anywhere from 10 to 22 hits (1.5 sigma, let’s say) is unremarkable, but outside that things get interesting.
The 20 hits in the last 11games is unremarkable, the 4 hits is very remarkable. That one followed the other in such abrupt fashion is noteworthy, and can’t be brushed off as mere luck.
by Dave Paisley on Jun 24, 2011 9:42 PM PDT up reply actions
Though the numbers are interesting
it most certainly can be brushed off as mere luck.
I still don't get how Fister has been so successful in the Majors,
but hey I don’t care as long as he keeps having that success!
Which would be more upsetting to watch an M's pitcher give up
A Jose Lopez walk or a Jose Lopez dinger?
I would be extremely happy to watch either because I am a fan of Jose Lopez
I would not be happy if it cost us the game, but Jose Lopez is adorable and I want him to succeed.
by SuperDopaLiciousFunkStar on Jun 24, 2011 3:05 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
I guess upsetting is the wrong word
Supriesed maybe?
I would say a walk
Because wow what the fuck is Lopez doing walking? If one of our pitchers walked Lopez he should be pulled immediately because it would be a sign that he’s about to give up 10+ runs.
by SuperDopaLiciousFunkStar on Jun 24, 2011 5:30 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Ricky Nolasco is an interesting dude.
This is his third straight season with a good xFIP and an ugly ERA. There’s some temptation to say he’s been screwed by his defense or park and that may be part of it, but there’s more to it. His HR/FB isn’t particularly weird and his strand rate is a little low but not miserable, but tRA doesn’t like him and there’s a good reason for it. Dude gives up a lot of line drives, especially this year.
So I guess the moral of the story is while he misses bats and throws strikes, his frequent non-grounders are too often hit sharply. Beat his ass, Ackley.
So he's like the exact opposite of Matt Cain.
by SuperDopaLiciousFunkStar on Jun 24, 2011 3:33 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Right. Cain has been good at suppressing home runs despite being a fly ball pitcher (so xFIP will always ding him for that).
Also, he has mostly been good at getting IFFB and suppressing line drives. This is why tRA is good as it accounts for batted ball profile. Statcorner!
Why Scott Baker's page?
"Satisfaction is the enemy of success." SanFranPreps
by perfectstrat on Jun 24, 2011 3:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Fuck Yeah Statcorner?
"Satisfaction is the enemy of success." SanFranPreps
by perfectstrat on Jun 24, 2011 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions
I haven't checked lately, but going into the year, his FIP-ERA was the biggest gap over the last 3 years by a wide margin. I think almost 1.50 runs.
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by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 24, 2011 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions
ERA minus FIP I mean.
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by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 24, 2011 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Via @GregJohnsMLB:
#Mariners vs. Marlins: Ichiro RF, Ryan SS, Kennedy 3B, Smoak 1B, Ackley 2B, Olivo C, Peguero LF, Gutierrez CF, Hernandez P.
I’m surprised Ackley isn’t batting second.
Swap Ryan and Ackley, and that's pretty close to optimal vs RHP for a no-DH game.
Currently seeking employment. My homepage
I'd rather have Halman over Peguero, but that's pretty sexy.
by sanford_and_son on Jun 24, 2011 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Eh I'd rather have Carp
Defense seems a wash, and I’d give him a few more PAs this year before sending him back down. Peguero, I think we’ve all seen enough of him.
Mariners/D Broncos/BSU Broncos fan in Seattle
The first rule of Lookout Landing is...
by appleshampoo on Jun 24, 2011 4:58 PM PDT up reply actions
A wash compared to Peguero, that is
Clearly Halman’s defense would be better
Mariners/D Broncos/BSU Broncos fan in Seattle
The first rule of Lookout Landing is...
by appleshampoo on Jun 24, 2011 4:58 PM PDT up reply actions
The Ackley sarcasm (I hope)
is the best
“Wearing gray uniforms, that will be a pretty big deal. It will be weird, but we’ll do what we can.”
Determined, Jonesing Commentor
Danny Hultzen just struck out the first 6 batters he faced.
Its on ESPN right now.
Freakin' dealing.
6 hitters faced, 6 k’s. Hitting 95 on the black, with a sick breaking ball. Struck out Bradley, Jr with two-straight 95 MPH heaters on the black.
He sucks.
Upside: 3rd starter. Everybody who says that can’t be wrong.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jun 24, 2011 4:39 PM PDT up reply actions
3rd starter on the 2011 Phillies, maybe.
Cliff Lee.
JAC is still convinced Z overruled McNamarra on the decision.
He has no evidence of this, of course, but when has that ever stopped anyone.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jun 24, 2011 4:44 PM PDT up reply actions
I have no evidence of this, but I bet you think you're a better person for that, doncha?
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jun 24, 2011 5:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Holy shit he's dealing.
Completely over-matching the hitters. I can’t wait to see him in a few years.
by wyte_lightning on Jun 24, 2011 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Plus he's sick as a dog.
Been going to the clubhouse b/w innings (probably puking). Just got pulled after 40 pitches.
Although - Why would they pull him after 3 innings??
Might they need him to use him on Sunday or something?
Given Taijuan Walker and James Paxton's successes this year, I'm pretty confident in the Z regime to draft pitchers.
Currently seeking employment. My homepage
Which is interesting, because Z had some successes in Miliwaukae (which is Elgonquin for...) drafting pitchers, but his greatest successes were with the bats.
Now, people are in different positions with this organization and Z is, JAC’s opinion aside, not running the draft. But, it’s nice to have that confidence.
by It's Good To Be King on Jun 24, 2011 5:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Then again, has anybody done any serious analysis on Z's drafting of pitchers as the Brewer's director of scouting?
If they all were victims of the attrition war, then how critical of Z’s recognition of pitching talent can we be?
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jun 24, 2011 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions
And then there's the quality of talent available to consider as well
No matter how badly you want or need something doesn’t mean it’s going to be magically available
There's no "guarantee" that greater effort will be successful in most sports
Other than something like running, where if you run harder, you run a faster time. Even that’s not necessarily true, though; running faster could tire you out or make you slip.
Throwing a football harder won’t make it more likely to be caught. Rushing really “hard” to get to the edge might burn you when the RB cuts back to the middle.
On and on and on.
This strikes me as a needless quibble.
Of course there isn’t a guarantee, but I think anyone would be hard pressed to say that effort is not more rewarded in other sports. Most other sports have a higher premium placed on physical skill compared to coordination than baseball does.
Sorry
Didn’t mean to quibble, at least not excessively so; I thought that it was an interesting concept to think about. Has been a long day quibbling with lawyers about various things, so that may have bled into my thinking here. You wrote a nice post, as is typical.
This is true of most Mariners.
Good thing we only have to play there once every three years.
...and now I'm here
Sorry it's not directly about the preview
but thanks for teaching me about UZR in the game wrap-up thread a couple days back. (I was away from the computer and posted late).
Oh, you're welcome.
Hopefully my assumptions in those posts weren’t way off the mark.
...and now I'm here
I'm not even sure how I would find this out but because of the odd home-away thing... have we ever played 6 o clock games at Safeco?
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I see. Just wasn't sure if there would be unusual start time because of the unusual situation.
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by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 24, 2011 5:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Sunday's is!
Because the MLS is stupid.
by Mariner John on Jun 25, 2011 12:28 AM PDT up reply actions
Completely agree about skill vs. effort in baseball compared to other sports
Winning football games isn’t easy, but the luck/variability factors are just nowhere near as high as baseball. Its a lot easier to string together 4 completed passes than it is to string together 4 hits.
Which as you said, is exactly how you can have a contrast like the Phillies and Nats series.
Hanley Ramirez?
Doesn’t he scare you just a little bit? He’s been horrible this year, but with his history, he’s still a guy you’d think was capable of having a big game and doing a lot of damage. Not someone I would think of as an easy out in the lineup. He’s not going to be interesting to watch when he comes to bat?
by nathaniel dawson on Jun 24, 2011 7:32 PM PDT reply actions
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