Series Preview: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals

HITTING (wOBA) -61.7 (30th) -6.3 -18.3 (21st) Washington
FIELDING 17.2 (5th) - 20.4 (2nd) Washington
25.8 (3rd) 2.7 -22.8 (27th) Seattle
2.5 (14th) -2.2 0.8 (18th) Seattle
-13.6 (17th) -5.5 -19.9 (20th) SEATTLE
Running (BsR)
-0.9 (16th) - 2.8 (8th) Washington

And for the fourth consecutive series preview, the fielding row changes. I am still using the same process outlined previously, but thinking through the problem with line drives versus fly balls mentioned in the comments section, I decided to tinker with combining those two and at the moment, prefer that method. I do lose some granularity, but I feel it is the best compromise between dumb batting average on balls in play and over fitting the data based on subjective batted ball types. Similarly, it's why I have always preferred to express home run rates per "ball in air" rather than per "fly ball".

Tue 21 Jun 16:05


Livan Hernandez is approaching Jamie Moyer pitch speed territory. Actually, approaching is not quite the correct word because he's been in the low to mid 80s with his fastball since 2006. Livan Hernandez is loitering around Jamie Moyer pitch speed territory and eventually the talent police are going to come by and take him away. In the meanwhile, he continues to just be there, existing with a Major League job.

Hernandez hasn't been poor by any means while with the Nationals, nor was he poor during his last stint with the Nationals (né Expos). Mayhap the two never should never have split up.

Wed 22 Jun 16:05


I remembered John Lannan as being a good young starter for the Nationals. Catching up with his numbers, I still see the youth, but now I am not sure where the impression of good came from. Lannan has not even come within flirting range of a league average tRA while in the Majors and even managed to end up down in Double-A last season before coming back up to Washington.

Which is odd because individually his pitches grade out decently. He just cannot seem to translate that into results. He doesn't get strikeouts and he walks too many. That's really what it comes down to. This is the sort of scuffling pitcher that the Mariners' offense should theoretically exhibit some life against.

Thur 23 Jun 10:05


Jason Marquis was a disaster last season. It was a short-lived season for him at only 58.2 innings, but while there he struck out 31 and walked or plunked 32. He also served up nine home runs to boot, which is an awful lot over that few innings. He has recovered mostly this season, but is a third consecutive soft-tossing sinkerballer in this series so hopefully by this juncture the Mariner hitters will have finally adjusted and might eke out a run or two.

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