Series Preview: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals

by Matthew on Jun 21, 2011 12:00 PM PDT in Seattle Mariners Previews

	MARINERS (37-35)	Δ Ms	NATIONALS (35-37)	EDGE
HITTING (wOBA)	-61.7 (30th)	-6.3	-18.3 (21st)	Washington
FIELDING	17.2 (5th)	-	20.4 (2nd)	Washington
ROTATION (tRA)	25.8 (3rd)	2.7	-22.8 (27th)	Seattle
BULLPEN (tRA)	2.5 (14th)	-2.2	0.8 (18th)	Seattle
OVERALL(RAA)	-13.6 (17th)	-5.5	-19.9 (20th)	SEATTLE

*Running (BsR)*	-0.9 (16th)	-	2.8 (8th)	Washington

And for the fourth consecutive series preview, the fielding row changes. I am still using the same process outlined previously, but thinking through the problem with line drives versus fly balls mentioned in the comments section, I decided to tinker with combining those two and at the moment, prefer that method. I do lose some granularity, but I feel it is the best compromise between dumb batting average on balls in play and over fitting the data based on subjective batted ball types. Similarly, it's why I have always preferred to express home run rates per "ball in air" rather than per "fly ball".

Tue 21 Jun 16:05
DOUG FISTER	LIVAN HERNANDEZ

Livan Hernandez is approaching Jamie Moyer pitch speed territory. Actually, approaching is not quite the correct word because he's been in the low to mid 80s with his fastball since 2006. Livan Hernandez is loitering around Jamie Moyer pitch speed territory and eventually the talent police are going to come by and take him away. In the meanwhile, he continues to just be there, existing with a Major League job.

Hernandez hasn't been poor by any means while with the Nationals, nor was he poor during his last stint with the Nationals (né Expos). Mayhap the two never should never have split up.

Wed 22 Jun 16:05
ERIK BEDARD*	JOHN LANNAN*

I remembered John Lannan as being a good young starter for the Nationals. Catching up with his numbers, I still see the youth, but now I am not sure where the impression of good came from. Lannan has not even come within flirting range of a league average tRA while in the Majors and even managed to end up down in Double-A last season before coming back up to Washington.

Which is odd because individually his pitches grade out decently. He just cannot seem to translate that into results. He doesn't get strikeouts and he walks too many. That's really what it comes down to. This is the sort of scuffling pitcher that the Mariners' offense should theoretically exhibit some life against.

Thur 23 Jun 10:05
MICHAEL PINEDA	JASON MARQUIS

Jason Marquis was a disaster last season. It was a short-lived season for him at only 58.2 innings, but while there he struck out 31 and walked or plunked 32. He also served up nine home runs to boot, which is an awful lot over that few innings. He has recovered mostly this season, but is a third consecutive soft-tossing sinkerballer in this series so hopefully by this juncture the Mariner hitters will have finally adjusted and might eke out a run or two.

Tweet Comment 52 comments | 2 recs |

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Comments

This might be a fun week to play the "how many Brendan Ryan groundballs will sneak into the outfield for singles" betting game

by seattlebruin on Jun 21, 2011 12:04 PM PDT reply actions

You must be thirsty.

follow @casetines

by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 21, 2011 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions

You could always run an IV.

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Just North of Wrigley Field

by jameslcrockett on Jun 21, 2011 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions

Now I won't feel so lonely at LL events!

"Satisfaction is the enemy of success." SanFranPreps

by perfectstrat on Jun 21, 2011 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions

We'll have to form our own clique.

Sobriety is starting to feel normal.

by Thingray on Jun 21, 2011 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

I'll take an Apple juice!

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Just North of Wrigley Field

by jameslcrockett on Jun 21, 2011 3:01 PM PDT up reply actions

I just read your signature line, and Yes. I agree.

Just letting you know why someone random rec’d it.

by ambrosia2112 on Jun 21, 2011 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions

Honestly, that was one of the things I was concerned about going to an LL event.

So many people here seem to be fans of their Beer. I did that and just can’t anymore, but if there are other non-drinkers there I think that would be really cool and I would probably feel a little better going.

by ambrosia2112 on Jun 21, 2011 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions

Nationals are playing well right now, but we do miss Jordan Zimmerman. So that's good? Pitching matchups have thus far proved inconclusive.

A chance to see Mike Morse, that “Why do they always get better?” player I don’t hear mentioned around here ever, it seems.

follow @casetines

by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 21, 2011 12:12 PM PDT reply actions

Listen to the podcast

You’ll literally hear him mentioned

by J0SER on Jun 21, 2011 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions

Well, I literally won't be able to do that until I am home this evening.

follow @casetines

by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 21, 2011 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions

Two 'n's on Jordan Zimmermann.

One ‘n’ Jordan Zimmerman actually was a brief-tenured Mariners pitcher in the late 90s.

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Just North of Wrigley Field

by jameslcrockett on Jun 21, 2011 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions

These are the types of pitchers Peguerro can crush

He won’t have to worry about that hard inside fastball that’s been breaking all his bats lately. Probably will only start a game or two but him having another one of those job saving series wouldn’t surprise me.

by Vegasexpat on Jun 21, 2011 12:14 PM PDT reply actions

This would be a great series to do something about that stupid -62 hitting RAA.

That negative run differential is nauseating.

by Drew_D on Jun 21, 2011 12:14 PM PDT reply actions

I feel like this is the first time the Mariners have been in the Overall category

by d0nkey on Jun 21, 2011 12:20 PM PDT reply actions

What word is missing here?

by Mariner John on Jun 21, 2011 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions

Overall (RAA)?

by d0nkey on Jun 21, 2011 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions

Do you mean have had the advantage overall?

by Mariner John on Jun 21, 2011 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions

That is a better way of saying it

by d0nkey on Jun 21, 2011 2:38 PM PDT up reply actions

I feel like this gets mentioned every time the Mariners come out ahead in the overall category.

Which is not all that rare

by Matthew on Jun 21, 2011 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions

I just think it's incredible that a team with an average run differential would ever be better than another team

by seattlebruin on Jun 21, 2011 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions

Although it makes sense since the last few times I have looked have been against some good teams.

by d0nkey on Jun 21, 2011 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions

It's amazing their defense is so good with Morse in left.

by Mariner John on Jun 21, 2011 12:24 PM PDT reply actions

He's been playing a lot of 1st lately with LaRoche injured

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Just North of Wrigley Field

by jameslcrockett on Jun 21, 2011 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions

Morse hasn't been in the outfield all the time

He’s started 24 games in LF but only played there for the entire game in 11. By contrast he’s started 29 games at 1B and played the whole game there in 25. Toss in some fielding-after-PH at both positions and in total he has 180.1 innings in the OF and 256.2 at 1B. Which is still a lot more than he should have in the outfield — though the Nats were trying to keep his bat in the lineup before LaRoache got knocked out for the season.

by J0SER on Jun 21, 2011 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions

I hope we see more of Carp and Halman this series and less of Peguero

Peguero just doesn’t seem like he belongs in the majors, although I reserve the right to change my opinion if/when he hits some dingers

by Punkhazard on Jun 21, 2011 12:36 PM PDT reply actions

Shouldn't see him against Lannan, certainly

Lannan may be the sort of scuffling pitcher that the Mariners’ offense should do well against, but he’s much better (or at least, less bad) against lefties than righties, which means the M’s may not do so well anyway.

by J0SER on Jun 21, 2011 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions

With Carp, Halman and Ackley...

up now, it just seems like Wilson for Peguero is a swap that has to happen until Cust is off the roster or Carp proves he doesn’t belong on it. I know the dingers are nice, but he just doesn’t bring enough to the table.

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Just North of Wrigley Field

by jameslcrockett on Jun 21, 2011 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions

Halman already does what Wilson would do, but while able to cover CF for Gutierrez as well

The team just needs a better starting LF in general.

by CMC_Stags on Jun 21, 2011 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions

I'll take Wilson's ability to hit LHPs over Halman's, every day.

I think I was pretty clear in saying Wilson for Peguero, not Wilson for Halman, by the way. The team still needs Halman, but they need a player who they put at DH when a LHP is on the mound. Best player in the system for that right now is Mike Wilson.

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Just North of Wrigley Field

by jameslcrockett on Jun 22, 2011 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions

In that context (LF and DH being platooned) I agree that Wilson makes more sense than one of Carp/Peguero

If the assumption is that Halman is in LF and you need a RH DH.

Then Carp/Peguero would be in LF and Cust would be at DH when facing a RHP.

by CMC_Stags on Jun 23, 2011 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions

My point was that the team just needs a better starting LF (or DH) in general

Then that person could DH vs LH with Halman taking over LF and then play LF with Cust at DH vs RH. Then Carp and Peguero could both go back to AAA to get at bats every day.

If the team wants to win the division this year, rotating Carp, Peguero, Cust, Halman, and Wilson between LF and DH (with the odd start in CF and RF) isn’t a good recipe for success.

by CMC_Stags on Jun 23, 2011 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions

At least we don't have to face Stephen Strasburg!

by ThundaPC on Jun 21, 2011 12:36 PM PDT reply actions

I'd like to think it'll happen eventually but...

Strasburg vs. Ackley would be a matchup I’d pay to go see.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jun 21, 2011 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions

All-Star game!

I still won’t predict Washington vs Seattle WS, but a Mid-Summer Classic meeting could surely happen.

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Just North of Wrigley Field

by jameslcrockett on Jun 21, 2011 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions

You don't have to pay to see this one.

Courtesy of AZGiants

"Satisfaction is the enemy of success." SanFranPreps

by perfectstrat on Jun 21, 2011 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions

While certainly not great, Lannan has actually kind of improved lately.

Since 05/21 he has a 21:13 K:BB ratio, which is a lot better than it was earlier in the season. And he’s getting lots of ground balls.

To me, it sounds like exactly the kind of pitcher that has one of those season-best performances against the M’s, where he allows 6 dinky squibblers/bloops over 8 shutout innings.

Obviously I’m hoping otherwise.

by HititHere on Jun 21, 2011 12:49 PM PDT reply actions