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The Mike Carp Question

With the Mariners playing so well but hitting so poorly, it's become impossible for us to ignore what Mike Carp has been doing with AAA Tacoma. Over 200 trips to the plate, Carp is running a four-digit OPS with the second-highest home run total in the PCL, mostly thanks to a white-hot month of May. He's been on an absolute tear, and he's forced his way into the discussion.

He's forced his way into the discussion because the long-time first baseman has been spending a lot of his time in left field. Carp's played 32 games in left and three games in right, and left field, of course, has been a total black hole in Seattle. The Mariners need help, and Carp is one intriguing potential solution.

So it's worth discussing this, at least a little bit. In the recent past, the Carp possibility has been waved away dismissively, with statements like "he's not a left fielder" or "he's not the answer." These explanations are insufficient. The former means nothing. Wilson Valdez isn't a pitcher, but he pitched. Carlos Ruiz isn't a third baseman, but he played third base. Ichiro isn't a shortstop, but he could play short. Mike Carp is not incapable of playing left field. He might play it poorly, but all that means is that he'd be a certain amount of runs below average.

As for the latter, Mike Carp is clearly not a franchise building block for the outfield. He's not the answer if the question is, who's going to hold down left in Safeco for the next five years? But if the question is, who's the Mariners' best option to play left against righties? Then things are different. It's not about roster perfection. It's about roster maximization.

The matter at hand is trying to figure out what player or combination of players would give the Mariners the best overall production in left field. And this is where Carp stands out. Michael Saunders cannot hit. He couldn't possibly look more lost than he does right now. Carlos Peguero - for all of his earlier heroics - has a .210 OBP and more than seven times as many strikeouts as walks despite being platooned. These guys aren't helping. Carp, meanwhile, is sitting on a 1.007 OPS, and swings a left-handed bat.

From the looks of things, it definitely seems as though Carp should be on this roster. Not necessarily as an everyday player, but he could hit against righties and platoon with Mike Wilson, essentially swapping places with Peguero. It's hard for me to imagine that Carp's defense could be so bad that his offensive advantage would be canceled out.

There's little doubt in my mind that Carp would be of more use to this team right now than Peguero or Saunders. An interesting question is whether he'd be of more use than Ryan Langerhans, who's also in Tacoma. Langerhans, of course, is also a lefty, and brings a better glove. But I'm not sure how good Langerhans' defense is anymore now that he's in the low 30s, and Carp has the more capable bat. While I don't think the difference is huge, I think Carp is the better option to hold a steady gig in left. And Langerhans could always come up and fill the reserve role, sending both Peguero and Saunders down for more work.

If Carp were to come up, how good would he be? I'm not sure how to answer that. I haven't been watching him play every day. His defense would probably be bad. Noticeably bad. But he's not so new to the outfield that he couldn't manage without embarrassing himself. And he'd be coming up for his bat. Used to be that Carp was a doubles hitter from whom we wanted to see more home runs. Since the start of last season, he's hit 44 home runs. Carp turns 25 at the end of the month, and his power is arriving.

Carp isn't four-digit-OPS good. Aside from BABIP, there's very little difference between his 2010 in Tacoma and his 2011. But he has some power and enough of an idea of the strike zone to keep from getting exploited every time he comes to the plate. In other words, he'd hit better than Peguero, and better than Saunders. Given enough time, his offense would probably best be described as "all right," and who knows, maybe it would be more than that.

It says a lot about the state of the Mariners' left field situation that we're talking about Mike Carp as a possibility for a platoon. Mike Carp would almost certainly not make a good Major League outfielder. But the Mariners don't need good. The Mariners need non-disastrous, and I think Carp could come up and not be a disaster. Bring him up and pair him with Wilson until or unless something better comes along. There's not a whole lot to lose.

Comment 94 comments  |  14 recs  | 

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Couldn't agree more.

Unless the Mariners can somehow swing a trade for an impact outfielder sooner rather then later, I see nothing wrong with giving Carp the AB’s that Peguero has been using to cool the infield.

Best case scenario is that you hopefully have someone who could serve as a cheap DH option next year while not entirely negating his offensive value in left field.

Worst case scenario, you have another Carlos Peguero and move on down the list of AAA talent or make a trade..

by Adam B on Jun 2, 2011 5:05 PM PDT reply actions  

I'm not so sure about that.

Furthermore, I’m even less sure of the rationale behind leaving him down there. I admittedly have no numbers on hand, but I can’t imagine his defense being such a drop off from I-Swing-Solely-From-My-Ass that this doesn’t make perfect sense. Could very well be wrong but I don’t think so.

Teams (for foreign blogs): Seahawks, Mariners, Huskies and Broncos. Yes, I recognize the contradiction; I was born in Denver.

by THolt on Jun 2, 2011 5:52 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

And now, after reading further, I'm wondering if that was sarcasm.

And also how you managed to post second and still be on top of it.

Teams (for foreign blogs): Seahawks, Mariners, Huskies and Broncos. Yes, I recognize the contradiction; I was born in Denver.

by THolt on Jun 2, 2011 5:53 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

It all depends who is going away and if there is a corresponding move

if there is a corresponding move to trade for Endy Chavez, make Peguero go away and let Saunders work on his hitting in Tacoma, then yes. Otherwise, no.

by seattlebruin on Jun 2, 2011 6:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

The non-union, cost controlled equivalent of Endy Chavez

it literally does not matter. It could be Jeremy Reed for all I care.

I want Saunders to away, but not his skillset.

by seattlebruin on Jun 2, 2011 6:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

Anyone here who's seen him play who can comment on his defense?

Calling him up sounds good as long as he’s not at the Jack Cust/Adam Dunn level of suck in the outfield.

Yes, we have a coupon.

by Crystal for DH on Jun 2, 2011 5:07 PM PDT reply actions  

Everytime I've seen him play I've come away impressed with his defense.

That’s mostly because I am expecting Adam Dunn level defense, but he’s not horrible out there.

by Flamefox111 on Jun 2, 2011 6:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

LF at Safeco plays a bit bigger than Cheney, though

That’s my impression, anyway — I haven’t been to a Rainiers game yet this year, so the renovation may have changed things.

But ultimately it’s more about the routes/instincts than the footspeed/dimensions, most of the time (when you’re not Adam Jonesing a catch out of pure velocity, anyway).

by J0SER on Jun 2, 2011 7:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

This is really a no lose situation

Send Peguero down who has been horrible of late and bring up Carp. I’m kind of surprised it hasn’t happen yet.

by aussie_chop on Jun 2, 2011 5:09 PM PDT reply actions  

It's not like Peguero has been awesome in the field either

He looks lost out there at times. Plus his offense has been really really bad. Send him down for more work and bring in Carp. I find it hard to believe Carp could be worse than Peguero in left field. We gave Carlos a chance, bring in the next guy to get his chance.
Saunders has had his chance, but we need him to backup Guti in center.

CARP/WILSON PLATOON!

by GriffinNW on Jun 2, 2011 5:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

He looks lost out there all the time

He’s just not ready to be at this level. At first I thought it was some cute little experiment because we had nothing to lose and no better options, but now we have something to lose and better options so he should go away.

by OlSalty on Jun 2, 2011 6:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

He hasn't looked totally lost

He’s come up with a few very nice plays. He’s also had his problems, and it’s obvious now he’s not a very good outfielder, but he’s had his moments.

by nathaniel dawson on Jun 2, 2011 8:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

Personally, I think he's looked lost

He has made plays but you can be lost and still find a nut every once in a while. When he does make plays he hasn’t looked good when he made them. He has looked pretty awkward in the field so far and he doesn’t judge balls off the bat well or run good routes. He isn’t ready for the position yet and it appears patently obvious to my eye at least.

by OlSalty on Jun 3, 2011 6:34 AM PDT up reply actions  

I would agree with you, there have been plays where he's looked lost.

While looking like he absolutely knew what he was doing on others. The play that abender mentioned is a good example. An outfielder that just had no clue might have tried a foolish dive in an attempt to catch the ball, only to have it bounce off him or get behind him for extra bases. Or not have the presence of mind to notice that the runner had started back toward second, and thrown too late to third to get the out. He made two good decisions on that play, and it resulted in a rare out at third on a runner advancing from second on a single. On another play a couple of weeks ago, he started a nice flyball out double play after catching the ball up against the wall. He knew where the ball was going, he got into position to make a good play on it, and threw a strike from the base of the wall right to the cutoff man. Ryan barely had to move a step or two to catch the ball at his chest and make the relay to first. He’s also made a couple nice diving/running catches on balls in front of him.

This guy’s not a good outfielder, I think we’ve seen enough to know that now. He’s not a slow guy, but doesn’t have the speed to run down well-hit balls, and sometimes has problems tracking balls over his head.

In my mind, there’s a difference between being “totally lost” and just not having the skills to play the position well. He’s neither talented nor skilled enough to be a good outfielder, but I don’t get the impression he just has no clue out there.

by nathaniel dawson on Jun 3, 2011 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't love the idea of Mike Carp.

But at the same time, I can’t see any real downside to calling him up and plugging him in for Peguero. He couldn’t make things any worse than they already are.

by wetzelcoal on Jun 2, 2011 5:13 PM PDT reply actions  

I think a proper analogy is in order:

If you’ve just had your left-arm torn off, it’s better to wrap the wound in duct tape then it is to try see how far your arterial spray can travel.

This doesn’t mean you’re okay with having a duct-taped stump for a left arm.

by Adam B on Jun 2, 2011 5:14 PM PDT reply actions  

I think the better analogy would be

You just lost your left arm. You need to wrap it in gauze but all you have is duct tape. You may as well try the duct tape while you wait for the gauze to arrive.

by GrodyToadie on Jun 2, 2011 5:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

I would think that I wouldn't be satisfied with simply upgrading to gauze in that scenario.

The analogy assumes that someone with their arm torn off would seek serious medical attention, but splitting hairs…

by Adam B on Jun 2, 2011 5:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

Shit that's morbid

Autoampuerotica?

Teams (for foreign blogs): Seahawks, Mariners, Huskies and Broncos. Yes, I recognize the contradiction; I was born in Denver.

by THolt on Jun 2, 2011 6:22 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

Actually, there's a huge difference in his L/R splits from 2010 to 2011.

Sample size and all though.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Jun 2, 2011 5:14 PM PDT reply actions  

Last year:

vs LHP (120 AB): .200/.300/.324
vs RHP (369 AB): .266/.336/.554

This year:
vs LHP (54 AB): .333/.383/.500
vs RHP (143 AB): .322/.389/.664

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Jun 2, 2011 5:16 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

There's also the lowered fences in Cheney

Wasn’t Curto keeping track of the HRs that would have been off the walls last year? (And of course even the road stats are perfectly comparable, what with Portland gone to Tucson, etc)

But if those L/R stats stand up in a larger sample and especially at the MLB level (or at least he shows he can hit lefties as well as righties — an Ichiro-style reverse split seems unlikely to be permanent) that’s a huge improvement.

by J0SER on Jun 2, 2011 6:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

He was close to neutral in 2009, couldn't hit lefties in 2010, and then is close to neutral again.

And before it was ~15 HR, ~30 HR, ~30 HR, so something seems to be in the process of being put together.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Jun 2, 2011 9:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

Bring up Carp and Langerhans, send down Peguero and Saunders

Saunders needs remember how to hit again. Langerhans won’t be worse than Saunders and will allow Guti to take the necessary days off.

by seattlee on Jun 2, 2011 5:16 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

I'm pretty sure Langerhans isn't on the 40 man anymore.

So there is that. Also, Saunders is a better CF than Langerhans, so might be worth keeping Saunders around until they’re sure Guti is up to full strength.

by Paul AB on Jun 2, 2011 5:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

I would like to see Wilson play more so that he gets some MLB experience against both types of pitchers.

But since we’re competitive-ish, and since Peguero is probably the most clearly unprepared prospect call up I’ve ever seen, this sounds like a great idea.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Jun 2, 2011 5:16 PM PDT reply actions  

Once they get to the major league level, so far as I'm concerned, people can complain however they want about their usage.

I spent years following the system when they’d call up someone from Tacoma to get maybe three at-bats in the span of a week.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Jun 2, 2011 9:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

Two things:

First, can someone speak intelligently on Carp’s contract status, and how a callup might affect his team control and arbitration eligibility?

Second, I found this latest article on minor league equivalencies at insidethebook interesting, even if it didn’t reach any stable conclusions.

by Lanky on Jun 2, 2011 5:18 PM PDT reply actions  

Simple answer:

He’s behind Saunders, Wilson, and Peguero on the depth chart. I don’t think anyone should be worrying about how much he’s being paid at this point.

by Adam B on Jun 2, 2011 5:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yes, I'm aware.

Playing the rest of 2011 still doesn’t add up to a full year of service time. Which can be seen on his BRef card. But really, it’s of no care at this point. If anyone is counting service time on Mike Carp to stunt a call up then he or she has gone off the deep end. He’d have to hit like he is in Tacoma for it to being to matter and even if that happened, you wouldn’t want to be signing him to a free agent contract when the time came because he’d be past 30.

by Matthew on Jun 2, 2011 5:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

Thanks. I was trying to think of a reason the FO might be waiting to call him up.

Clearly I didn’t think it through, and clearly this isn’t a reason.

by Lanky on Jun 2, 2011 5:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'd love to know about this too

I feel like the Ms know how well Carp is doing and how poorly Saunders and Peguero are doing. Knowing that they know that, there has to be a reason why they haven’t made the call. And I’m guessing (hoping?) the reason is more than they’re being stubborn and stupid.

by GrodyToadie on Jun 2, 2011 5:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

I really like the idea mentioned of also bringing back the Hans

Sending down Saunders and Peguero means baseball gets a lot more interesting. Who also goes down or off when Ackley arrives? Hopefully this all happens mid way through our Tampa Bay Series.

by Dgood on Jun 2, 2011 5:24 PM PDT reply actions  

The glove and pop are pretty awesome.

I wouldn’t mind swapping him and Saunders for the “Guti’s caddy” position. Saunders needs to get things right ASAP.

by Adam B on Jun 2, 2011 5:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

And he does have a body part named after him, which I guess is pretty cool.

I mean, how many guys can say that? You got Gräfenberg and his G-spot, and Langerhans and his islets.

by SeattleJunkieQueen on Jun 2, 2011 6:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

Fishing for recs, much?

I usually post at a guitar forum so if what you see in here is spam, I got confused.

by tsunamijesus on Jun 2, 2011 7:19 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Why would anyone think that would get a rec?

I realize we should all try to keep the conversation quality as high as possible, but is it really necessary to not post anything unless we think it’s likely to get a rec? In fact, considering some of the things that get recs, I’m not sure “fishing for recs” is even universally consistent with the whole conversational quality thing.

In this case SJQ posed a question. A rhetorical one, sure, but I thought it was actually kind of an interesting and then the Illiad connection popped into my head. I am kind of sorry about the pun-ishment at the end, though. And I did resist mentioning Fister.

by J0SER on Jun 2, 2011 8:53 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

He is a nice guy to have around.

He is versatile, which is what you want in a bench player. He can play all the outfield positions, and 1B if need be. Even though he doesn’t hit for a high average he is still a viable pinch hitter late in games because he has a little pop and draws a good number of walks. Plus he is a veteran so there is no concern that you are hurting his development by not having him play everyday. He isn’t a great player but he fits the fourth outfielder role well.

by wetzelcoal on Jun 2, 2011 5:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

A very good and deep offensive team would have little need for Langerhans.

The Mariners are not such a team. He’s easily better than Saunders and Peguero and that’s all that matters.

by abender20 on Jun 2, 2011 5:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

One other thing is that the Mariners don't have a DH beyond this year.

While I’m not saying “Yeah, Carp is definitely that guy” it wouldn’t hurt to see how he handles ~300 PA at the ML level. If he responds well then, hey, you might have something.

Maybe Carp comes up and he’s a pile of crap, but at this point I think he’s 100% earned a look and the Mariners would be better off finding out what they have in him this year.

by 200tang on Jun 2, 2011 5:35 PM PDT reply actions  

This is of course assuming his defense doesn't warrant starting in LF

and he hits well enough to actually be considered DH. Long shot but hey, there have been lots of guys who were long shots and worked out.

by 200tang on Jun 2, 2011 5:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

...'s future with the M's

Involves being a piece of a trade deal to get someone who isn’t blocked by Smoak

(sorry about the premature post)

by J0SER on Jun 2, 2011 6:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

Instead of calling up Carp, could we trade him for a decent left fielder?

I understand he would probably have to be packaged with at least one other player but it would be awesome if we could turn Carp into Chris Denorfia or someone similar.

by jruss22 on Jun 2, 2011 7:09 PM PDT via mobile reply actions  

Carp vs Kennedy

1. I like this idea.

2. How does it compare value-wise to Dave’s suggestion that they move Kennedy to left?

by bookbook on Jun 2, 2011 7:32 PM PDT reply actions  

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