Series Preview: Tampa Rays @ Seattle Mariners

The Mariners miss out on facing David Price while the Rays avoid Michael Pineda. Lucky for them. Or maybe lucky for us because the Rays are somewhat stacked with patient left-handed hitters. Including their starting first basemen Casey Kotchman and his nearly .900 OPS. Do all the people over this past offseason who decried Jack Zduriencik because of his terrible moves and cited Kotchman as one want to pipe up here?

Naturally, the only meaningful difference between Kotchman this year and Kotchman as a Mariners is his BABIP which was .229 with Seattle and is orbiting at .383 as a Ray. The power, the discipline, the batted balls, it's all almost completely the same, but now he's batting .358. He is not this good just as he was not that bad last season. Just like Chris Ray wasn't likely to be as bad as he was the first week and just as Chone Figgins isn't likely to be this bad either.

David Price is Tampa's only starting southpaw so get ready for four more days of Carlos Peguero. And lo how did the citizenry cast down their eyes and bemoan their fate.

Thu 02 Jun 19:10
FELIX HERNANDEZ	JAMES SHIELDS

I am not worried about Felix Hernandez in the slightest, but I have noticed that it has been quite a while since he last had one of those ground ball dominant games. While still good, Felix's ground ball rate is at the lowest of his career by quite a margin. The strikeouts are slightly up and the walks are still fine, but he is a slightly worse pitcher because of it. Again, not a concern, but it is something I am looking out for.

James Shields had a bump in the road last season as his home runs spiked to a career high 34 and his ERA jumped to over 5 thanks in large part to that and a .341 BABIP. Both numbers have fallen off and with a large increase in strikeouts, Shields is currently pitching better than ever. Until now that is because he's about to run into the pain train! Feel the hot wrath of Adam Kennedy and Miguel Olivo, James. You don't get this kind of heat down in Tampa.

Fri 03 Jun 19:10
JASON VARGAS*	ANDY SONNANSTINE

I did not know that Andy Sonnanstine was still around. After his under appreciated 2008 campaign while part of our traitorous bandwagoning of the Rays, he became a bit of a local darling and then promptly became terrible in 2009 and fell out of favor everywhere he went. Even his cat ran away. He moved to the bullpen but saw no better success there and still waffles between the two roles. When he was good, he was similar in profile to Doug Fister and is the sort of tale that causes me to never trust Fister.

Batters are swinging much less often against Jason Vargas this season. 47% of his pitches were swung at last season but that is down to 42.5% this year. That has aided Vargas in getting more called strikeouts. While they used to represent about 1 in every 5 strikeouts he recorded, this season they are over 1 in 3. Most of those have come on his fastball.

Sat 04 Jun 13:10
DOUG FISTER	JEREMY HELLICKSON

Jeremy Hellickson's second exposure to the Majors is not going as well as his first. His control is worse and the strikeouts are down. The superficial results are still there, but the Mariners must do their best to destroy him as he presents competition to Michael Pineda's bid for Rookie Award. Why do we have a Rookie Award anyways? Why that and no Sophomore Player Award? Why no Under-23 Award? We are inescapable creatures or the status quo.

Sun 05 Jun 13:10
ERIK BEDARD*	WADE DAVIS

Erik Bedard is not going to return to his 2006-7 form. That is probably gone for good, dispersed into the ephemeral mist of our memories and the emotionless whirring of our databases. However, after a rocky start, Bedard of 2011 is similar in numbers to the Bedard of 2008-9. That's not superstar Erik Bedard but it is good Erik Bedard and importantly, this is a so far healthy version. That has to be a wonderful feeling in between the aches and pains of pitching; each of which must be terrifying.

The thrust of Wade Davis is that Wade Davis has been very bad this season. He's struck out 31 batters and walked or plunked an equal 31. His ground ball rate is down to just 32% but because he had been stranding runners and luckily avoiding home runs, he was escaping notice for how poor he was pitching. Nine home runs and 22 total runs allowed over his last five starts put an end to that. It would be a shame if the Mariners didn't continue the derby. It will be a shame when the Mariners don't continue the derby.