Series Preview: Anaheim Angels @ Seattle Mariners
by Matthew on Jun 13, 2011 3:00 PM PDT
in Seattle Mariners Previews
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Print| MARINERS (34-32) | Δ Ms | ANGELS (31-36) | EDGE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HITTING (wOBA) | -55.4 (30th) | -6.7 | -14.1 (21st) | Anaheim |
| ROTATION (tRA) |
23.5 (4th) | -1.0 | 23.7 (3rd) | Anaheim |
| BULLPEN (tRA) |
6.6 (9th) | 2.4 | 1.0 (16th) | Seattle |
| OVERALL(RAA) |
-25.3 (22nd) | -5.0 | 10.5 (11th) | ANAHEIM |
| Fielding (BABIP) |
7.4 (7th) | - | 7.8 (5th) | Anaheim |
| Running (BsR) |
-1.3 (19th) | - | -0.1 (14th) | Anaheim |
I have replaced UZR in the fielding row. After digging further into some of the numbers this season and talking to a couple people, I have decided that at this point, I trust a more simple BABIP look at fielding over UZR. Even though BABIP introduces some issues with park adjustments and not being as comprehensive and contextual as UZR, at least I can tell exactly what it is doing and on what data. From watching, I don't think I buy the Mariners being seventh best at defense, but I also don't buy them being fourth-worst.
Three more right-handed starters and dating back to John Danks in the White Sox series and to Cole Hamels in the next Phillies series means 10 straight right-handers faced for the Mariners at which point they'll have faced a non-southpaw in 83% of their games.
Mon 13 Jun 19:10 |
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| JASON VARGAS* | DAN HAREN | |
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Dan Haren and Jered Weaver again for the Mariners in a bit of unlucky scheduling. The Angels have an incredibly top-heavy rotation and once again Seattle passes through that top part. While they managed to win both games last time, neither was by a healthy, convincing margin and had little to do with the offense impressing. Jason Vargas was remarkably good last time out against the Angels and he will probably need to be the same this time.
Tue 14 Jun 19:10 |
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| DOUG FISTER | JERED WEAVER | |
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Doug Fister, despite my statement last preview that I had run out of things to say about him, is a fascinating case of pitcher development. He continues to get better in many measurable ways. His fastball speed is up almost 2mph from when he broke in during 2009 and he's found new success in throwing his big looping curve ball even more frequently for an almost automatic (actually 35% of the time) called strike.
Despite his low swinging strike rate, Fister's strikeout rate is only minutely below league average. In fact, his walk rate has risen this season in a year of down offense and since his ground ball rate continues to hover right around league average, Fister has morphed into nearly the epitome of an average American League starting pitcher. He is so weird! Weirdo Wildes, that's what I call him.
Wed 15 Jun 19:10 |
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| ERIK BEDARD* | ERVIN SANTANA | |
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Erik Bedard is 40 outs away from throwing the most amount of innings in any of his Mariner seasons. Personally, I'm hoping he gets all of those in this game. Boy that would be exciting!
36 comments
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2 recs |
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Seems like the opponent always has the edge in these previews
Or maybe I’m wrong. But fuck it, we keep on fighting through.
Some friends and I are going to the game tonight.
Go Mariners!
That's what having such a pathetic offense will do for you!
Imagine have even a respectable offense would make this team look like.
A slightly worse version of the Phillies?
I’d take it.
by Snuffleupagus on Jun 13, 2011 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't know, I hope Bedard only needs to get 27 outs.
That’s probably not going to happen, but it doesn’t stop me from mentally holding my breath each game until the first hit is given up.
With the way the season has gone, it feels like we've been better offensively.
I guess that’s just what winning does to you though. We’re still as bad as ever.
"Satisfaction is the enemy of success." SanFranPreps
by perfectstrat on Jun 13, 2011 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions
I love these previews, very informative.
However, I have a stupid question and I can’t seem to figure it out.
What is the purpose of the black bar on the charts?
I just noticed:
Baseball Reference’s one-year park factors for Safeco Field this season are: Batting – 100, Pitching – 101. Has it really been playing as an average park, when the M’s have had a near-league-worst offense and near-league-best pitching? That seems strange.
We're not even close to league-best pitching.
The Phillies have 78.9 (!!!!!) pRAA, and we’re at less than 1/3rd of that with 23.5.
This Philly rotation is the best this league has seen in a very long time.
"Satisfaction is the enemy of success." SanFranPreps
by perfectstrat on Jun 13, 2011 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions
But when you look at the fact that the Phillies are spending $65 million
on their rotation while we’re spending ~$19M (and that’s including Bedard’s performance bonuses), over half of which is Felix, I think it’s pretty darn good for us.
Good point about Bedard's performance bonuses.
Although it’s more like $20.75 MM for the rotation, if he reaches all of his incentives, which he undoubtedly won’t. I haven’t seen how his incentives break down, but the way he’s going, he’ll likely reach most of them, so with a possible 7.45 MM, they’ll probably end up paying him around 6 or so (I’m guessing one of those would be Comeback Player of the Year, which could be within reach). If he reaches that, it must mean he’s been healthy and productive for the year. Well worth whatever money they end up paying him, even if he breaks down at some point.
by nathaniel dawson on Jun 13, 2011 6:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Even though the advantage seems to lie with the Angels, I feel like M's could really slam the door on their season.
LAA have been playing positively Mariner’s esque baseball of late.
Who's gonna save the world? Who's gonna save the day? From Ahab crabs who steal and eerie eels with evil rays?
If we win 2 out of 3 that will be stellar and I think will convey the message we want to send to LA.
You know, the “Fuck you” message.
follow @casetines
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 13, 2011 3:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Matthew, would you recommend looking at a different defensive metric right now? Any that you prefer?
...and now I'm here
Anything interesting contribute to that opinion?
Or are you just disappointed in the way they work right now?
...and now I'm here
UZR I've talked about this week
and the others (TZ, DRS, etc) don’t re-balance mid-season. People might remember last year when FanGraphs had DRS and about this time the average time had like a +20 DRS rating. They’re useful and I like them for looking at past years data, but during the year they’re worthless right now.
by Matthew on Jun 13, 2011 6:19 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Realistically I'd be very, very happy with taking 2 out of 3.
But man, I just want the M’s to crush and embarrass the Angels.
by sanford_and_son on Jun 13, 2011 3:35 PM PDT reply actions
I always get so uncomfortable with this big series.
Especially against the Angels. Just about the time everyone begins to talk about the M’s…. they seem to crumble. Though that normally happens in august.
This year we have to get past some june excitement over the M’s and then if we do some in august too!? Not good.
Believe Big! I mean HUGE... believe Gigantic! like the Titanic.
Mariners Baseball: Believe Big.
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