Series Preview: Anaheim Angels @ Seattle Mariners

MARINERS (34-32) Δ Ms ANGELS (31-36) EDGE
HITTING (wOBA) -55.4 (30th) -6.7 -14.1 (21st) Anaheim
ROTATION (tRA)
23.5 (4th) -1.0 23.7 (3rd) Anaheim
BULLPEN (tRA)
6.6 (9th) 2.4 1.0 (16th) Seattle
OVERALL(RAA)
-25.3 (22nd) -5.0 10.5 (11th) ANAHEIM
Fielding (BABIP)
7.4 (7th) - 7.8 (5th) Anaheim
Running (BsR)
-1.3 (19th) - -0.1 (14th) Anaheim

I have replaced UZR in the fielding row. After digging further into some of the numbers this season and talking to a couple people, I have decided that at this point, I trust a more simple BABIP look at fielding over UZR. Even though BABIP introduces some issues with park adjustments and not being as comprehensive and contextual as UZR, at least I can tell exactly what it is doing and on what data. From watching, I don't think I buy the Mariners being seventh best at defense, but I also don't buy them being fourth-worst.

Three more right-handed starters and dating back to John Danks in the White Sox series and to Cole Hamels in the next Phillies series means 10 straight right-handers faced for the Mariners at which point they'll have faced a non-southpaw in 83% of their games.

Mon 13 Jun 19:10

JASON VARGAS* DAN HAREN

Dan Haren and Jered Weaver again for the Mariners in a bit of unlucky scheduling. The Angels have an incredibly top-heavy rotation and once again Seattle passes through that top part. While they managed to win both games last time, neither was by a healthy, convincing margin and had little to do with the offense impressing. Jason Vargas was remarkably good last time out against the Angels and he will probably need to be the same this time.

Tue 14 Jun 19:10

DOUG FISTER JERED WEAVER

Doug Fister, despite my statement last preview that I had run out of things to say about him, is a fascinating case of pitcher development. He continues to get better in many measurable ways. His fastball speed is up almost 2mph from when he broke in during 2009 and he's found new success in throwing his big looping curve ball even more frequently for an almost automatic (actually 35% of the time) called strike. 

Despite his low swinging strike rate, Fister's strikeout rate is only minutely below league average. In fact, his walk rate has risen this season in a year of down offense and since his ground ball rate continues to hover right around league average, Fister has morphed into nearly the epitome of an average American League starting pitcher. He is so weird! Weirdo Wildes, that's what I call him.

Wed 15 Jun 19:10

ERIK BEDARD* ERVIN SANTANA

Erik Bedard is 40 outs away from throwing the most amount of innings in any of his Mariner seasons. Personally, I'm hoping he gets all of those in this game. Boy that would be exciting!

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