Fun Fact: Dustin Ackley is Probably Okay

by Matthew on May 7, 2011 11:40 AM PDT in Seattle Mariners Good News

Dustin Ackley is off to a slow start this season. His OPS currently stands at .707 thanks mostly to a really low batting average. His .136 isolated discipline (OBP-AVG) and his .135 isolated power (SLG-AVG) are fine. Ackley profiles as a high average kind of hitter and I think we'd all be perfectly happy with a .280/.415/.415 batting line from him. Sure, more power would be nice at his peak, but I'm willing to settle for anything involving a .400+ on base percentage.

Ackley started slowly last season as well, so this may be a thing. Or it may not be. It's his second professional season. Anyways, I wanted to focus on that low batting average for the moment because as stated above, that's about his only offensive worry*. He is batting .218 and that's no good. He's basically some Chone Figgins/Jack Cust hybrid right now and we don't want that. But is that .218 a cause for actual concern?

*Defensively, you'd have to ask someone who's been watching him play. Any T-Towners want to chime in?

I think it is not. Ackley's batting average on his balls in play (BABIP) is abysmally low at .229. It's a small sample but he carried a more usual .300 rate last season between West Tenn (now Jackson) and Tacoma. There has been no real change in his batted ball profile this season compared to last. He's getting roughly the same percentage of grounders, flies, line drives and pop ups so we would expect a similar BABIP.

Ackley is missing seven hits if you assume his true talent BABIP is at that .300 range. Add those seven hits back and his batting average jumps from .218 to .277, his triple slash line becomes .277/.413/.412 if you assume those seven are all singles. With that line we'd turn to obsessing over him just needing to add a little more power (hey, it's freaking cold out if you hadn't noticed), but truthfully we'd be pretty pleased. I know many of us are impatient to see him dazzle, but take heart. He has shown some real improvement this season in his plate approach which was already fantastic and the hits will come. Dustin Ackley will be here soon.

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A tiring wait

I can’t wait to see Ackley vs major league pitching — especially LHP

by paracorto on May 7, 2011 11:58 AM PDT reply actions

Both Ackley and Nick Franklin seem to be playing very similarly at the moment.

Low averages, but they’re both walking A LOT.

by Chipanese on May 7, 2011 12:05 PM PDT reply actions

I just want to step back and appreciate

how successful the M’s organization has been implementing a policy of plate discipline and that we’re finally seeing it pay off with high walk rates and quality ABs.

After watching jokers (I mean the likes of you Loafie) hack away at everything thrown in the general vicinity of the catcher for years this is a breath of fresh air!

Once they can combine plate discipline with some guys that can recognize and execute on crushable pitches, this team will be fun to watch.

by TrashiDawa on May 7, 2011 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions

So is Steve Baron!

Walking more, that is. He does not have a low average which is also a fun fact. Steve Baron might not be terrible!

by Matthew on May 7, 2011 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions 5 recs

Rejoice!

by Jeff Sullivan on May 7, 2011 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions

The incredibly small sample sizes of ST were certainly encouraging.

by SethGrandpa on May 7, 2011 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions

I love it when Mariners turn out to be not terrible!

Dawg! He put da team on his back!

by JAH on May 7, 2011 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

I like when fun facts are actually fun facts.

"I can't recommend highly enough going back and watching old clips of Jose Lopez." -Jeff Sullivan

by joof on May 7, 2011 12:08 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs

I had forgotten that the term "fun fact" could be used in a non-sarcastic way.

by wetzelcoal on May 7, 2011 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions

Only Matthew's fun facts are fun

You got slurved!

by Slurvey on May 7, 2011 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions

I was just looking at his AAA last night and noticing the same thing.

800 OPS from a 2B, with at least half coming from OBP is a damn good player.

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by lailaihei on May 7, 2011 12:42 PM PDT reply actions

Just keep in mind that minor league BABIP doesn't equate to major league BABIP

It’s true that Ackley does profile as a line-drive type of hitter, and on that basis we would expect a high BABIP. On the other hand, we have a continually growing sample of his minor league performance, and if he finishes the season with something like a career-to-date .290 or .300 BABIP in the minors over two seasons, that’s reason for some concern. Coincidentally, Dave Cameron mentioned this on FanGraphs yesterday, but minor league BABIPs are significantly inflated by bad defenders, bad fields, and a population of pitchers that hasn’t been selected for BABIP talent. I’ve never seen a systematic study done on this issue, but from the numbers I’ve seen, a .300 BABIP in AAA is equivalent to something like a .285 or .290 BABIP in the majors. Again, there’s reason to believe that he should be an average-or-better hitter BABIP-wise, and even after this year, we’ll have a relatively small sample on which to judge him. But if he finishes the year with a career BABIP around or below .300 in the minors, there’s significant evidence that his true talent BABIP in the majors might be closer to .285. That said, there isn’t much wrong with a competent defender at second base who can also hit around .260/.385/.385 in MLB.

by austinh on May 7, 2011 1:05 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs

Ackley's profile would suggest that he would have an above average BABIP

He is a line-drive hitter with good speed and patience, that generally leads to a high BABIP. As for his minor-league BABIP, most of the inflated BABIP is at the lower levels, which he has skipped, and as you mentioned we still have a small sample size to judge his true talent.

by Flamefox111 on May 7, 2011 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions

800 OPS

Perhaps that’s a reason they moved in from the OF ?

by paracorto on May 7, 2011 1:08 PM PDT reply actions

I'm getting kind of excited about Kyle Seager.

He seems to be adjusting very nicely. As far as Ackley goes, I’m still hoping he can hit around .300 and keep his walk rate up. That would play very well in left field just in case Saunders doesn’t pan out and Seager does.

by morrow on May 7, 2011 1:18 PM PDT reply actions

TAC-TOWN!!!

I actually haven’t been to any games this year. I just like making it known that I’m a Tacoman. (end of useless comment)

by G@B3 on May 7, 2011 3:26 PM PDT reply actions

You're a Tacoman?

What kind of tacos do you make? I prefer hard shell.

by quacker27 on May 7, 2011 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions 5 recs

I hate that the call soft shell tacos soft tacos

It’s a freakin burrito not folded quite all the way

by sofa_king on May 8, 2011 12:13 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions

*they

by sofa_king on May 8, 2011 12:14 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions

Does it make you, sofa_king, frustrated?

I write for Stumptown Footy, SB Nation's Portland Timbers blog.

by thehemogoblin on May 8, 2011 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions 5 recs

You down with OBP (yeah you know me!)

Who’s down with OBP (Dustin Ackley!)

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on May 7, 2011 4:50 PM PDT reply actions 4 recs

Ackley starts slow before being ridiculously awesome

Ichiro starts slow before being ridiculously awesome
Therefore Ackley is a future hall of famer

Q.E.D. :-)

Today I Found Out

by TIFO on May 7, 2011 5:20 PM PDT reply actions

I don't think that's how it works.

M's fan in the Bay, soon to be LA SanFranPreps

by perfectstrat on May 7, 2011 5:30 PM PDT up reply actions

It's possible he wasn't being serious

But the emoticon is confusing me.

by J0SER on May 7, 2011 5:53 PM PDT up reply actions

Ackley's Defense in Tacoma

I saw him play a couple times in Tacoma. He made routine plays, but I had serious concerns about his efforts on plays immediately outside his position. He let several ground balls go through without a full effort, even when a dive would not have been necessary to reach a ball. It got even worse when during one blowout where he essentially gave up on non-routine balls. I got the distinct impression that while he is learning a new position, he is not taking much pride in the process.

I did not see any double play balls.

by ewdewald on May 8, 2011 4:21 PM PDT reply actions