Michael Pineda, Cliff Lee, And Command Vs. Control
by Jeff Sullivan on May 5, 2011 1:03 PM PDT
in Seattle Mariners Stats
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PrintLast night, I posted a little table of statistics that rather favorably compared Michael Pineda to Cliff Lee when Lee was a Mariner. I expressed after the table that Lee is still the better pitcher of the two because he has superior command, and I thought I'd take this opportunity to expand real quick on what that meant.
We've talked about this before a bunch of times, and I think it's a pretty simple concept to get. It's just good to have the occasional refresher for those who may not understand the difference between command and control. "Control" is used to refer to a pitcher's ability to throw strikes in the zone. "Command" is used to refer to a pitcher's ability to aim for, and hit, a particular spot.
Here are screengrabs from two pitches, the first obviously thrown by Pineda, and the second obviously thrown by Lee:
The red dot designates the spot where the catcher wanted the pitch. The yellow dot designates where the pitch wound up. In the first image, we see Pineda's pitch to Mitch Moreland in the top of the fifth that Moreland hit out. Olivo wanted a fastball down, but Pineda missed up and a little in. His pitch was still a strike, but it was not a well-located strike.
In the second image, we see a Lee pitch to some butt-sticker-outer on the Nationals. The catcher set up thigh-high and a little inside. Lee's pitch wound up thigh-high and a little inside. His pitch hit the target with precision.
It's clear based on Michael Pineda's zone rate and strike rate that he has strong control - not just for a rookie, but for anyone. Pineda does an outstanding job of throwing strikes. But his command isn't terrific, which is one of the reasons he ever allows a hit. He'll miss his spots, and even though he'll often miss in the strike zone, some strikes are more hittable than others.
It isn't a major red flag. Pineda's command is still pretty good, and while opposing batters will make him pay for the occasional missed spot, as Moreland and Chris Davis did yesterday, his results to date clearly show that his stuff is sufficiently overpowering that he can get away with inconsistent location. Pineda doesn't have to be perfect with every pitch. But as for the difference between Pineda and Lee outside of that data table - refer to those images above. Pineda throws hard-to-hit stuff in and around the zone. Lee throws his stuff almost exactly where he wants to.
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I was writing up a post to the same effect!
You beat me to it, Jeff. Excellent.
M's fan in the Bay, soon to be LA SanFranPreps
I'm still not sure which pitcher I enjoy watching more.
Brutal power vs. glorious precision. It’ll be nice to have Pineda around for longer than 3 months though.
Most frustrating pitch of the year, hands down.
I mean, Pineda/Olivo WATCHED Davis’ swing on the 0-0 slider. This isn’t a scouting report thing… they observed the result of throwing Davis a bendy pitch like 30 seconds earlier.
Even if his stuff gets a bit away from him, he's tons of fun to watch
Cliff Lee is impressive for the command, but Pineda is the first guy to really give me Johnson flashbacks. It’s like watching a solo violinist vs a rock concert; both are great, but the energy level is different.
Side note, should this be More You Know instead of Miscellaneous? Seems rather infotastic.
I understand what you mean by command versus control,
but I am not sure you have much evidence to support this statement:
But his command isn’t terrific, which is one of the reasons he ever allows a hit. He’ll miss his spots, and even though he’ll often miss in the strike zone, some strikes are more hittable than others.
I think if anyone can make a helpful observation on this front by observing a few Pineda starts, it’s you, but I don’t really think that anyone can do that. I understand that you have been paying particularly close attention to Pineda’s ability to hit the catcher’s glove in his handful of starts this year, but that hardly seems scientific. In addition to being a SSS, I’d be surprised if you had a good grasp of the baseline for comparison’s sake. Are you saying Pineda has worse command than Cliff Lee? Worse than average? Have you spent much time studying other pitchers and the amount that catchers have to move their gloves to make a catch?
Because I see those measurement problems with your method of evaluating command, it seems to me that BB% is probably better. Wouldn’t you think that command and control, as you’ve defined them, are highly correlated? Are you saying Pineda misses his spots, but has some strange skill that causes him to miss one spot in the strike zone and hit another spot in the strike zone, rather than to miss out of the zone? That seems pretty questionable to me. BB% is, of course, not a perfect measure for command, but isn’t it better than trying to eyeball it by watching a few starts?
Any remarks on command are always going to be subjective, as we don't have any data on pitcher target vs. pitch location
I think I have a good feel for what’s good command, what’s average command and what’s poor command, but maybe I don’t. I don’t claim to have the absolute truth.
But we can always look at it like this:
Pineda strike%: 71%
Pineda BB%: 7%
Lee strike%: 72%
Lee BB%: 1%
by Jeff Sullivan on May 5, 2011 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, that is a useful statistic--certainly helps make your point
Obviously, Cliff Lee has a higher strike% on 3 ball counts, which means he has been better at throwing a strike when he most needs to do so. This seems to me to be more about control than command, but, then again, I think they are probably highly correlated.
I guess my point is that I think we do have useful objective measures for command—all the same measures we use for control. But, I can see your point too and I think your post is interesting.
Lee has a walk rate of 1%?
Holy Spicoli! I hope that’s not rounded up, because that would mean his real walk rate is almost zero.
by nathaniel dawson on May 5, 2011 3:09 PM PDT up reply actions
So far in 2011 Lee has thrown 591 pitches and issued just 6 walks
Last year, across both the M’s and Rangers, it was 2980 and 18, which is significantly higher.
Of course, it’s early yet. Then again, he’s back in the NL.
I'm confused by this
Current rate is a walk every 99 pitches, previous was one every 166, no?
by Graham MacAree on May 5, 2011 5:12 PM PDT up reply actions
I think it's possible for guys to have "some strange skill" that cause them to miss spots in the strike zone more often than out of it.
After all, pitchers are taught from age 6 to throw strikes. Guys don’t want to be wildly throwing pitches their catcher can’t catch. They try to throw strikes. Pineda is good at throwing a baseball so it ends up in the strike zone at 99 mph, but isn’t so good at pinpointing exactly which part of the zone he wants it to go to yet.
I am going to come into your house at night and rec up the place.
I suppose it is "possible"
but I do not find your argument all that persuasive. Are you saying that young pitchers are not taught to throw pitches, or regular throws for that matter, to particular spots? I don’t think that is true. Even if it were true, I don’t see how it would matter.
I think strike% is a crude measure of a pitchers ability to throw a pitch to the place he wants to throw it. There might be other better measures of this talent, such as strike% on a particular count or unintentional BB%, but I think this sort of data is the best data we have.
The only counter to this I can see would be if a pitcher did not try to hit spots, he rather aimed for the center of the plate every time, and so even when he missed, he threw strikes. But in this example, I still think control correlates with command, it is just that the pitcher adopted a unique strategy that inflates his control numbers to the detriment of his overall numbers.
In other words, I think control and command are both descriptions of a pitcher’s ability to throw a pitch where he wants to throw it. I have yet to see strong evidence that this represents two different skills rather than one.
I'm not saying that we aren't trained to throw to exact spots from an early age
But for some guys it makes more sense, mechanically, to sacrifice an inch or two of precision for 3-5mph and some movement. This is a very human phenomenon that you seem to be trying to objectify.
Jeff has it right, in my opinion, that you can’t judge command until you watch someone. Jeff’s initial post said everything that needed to be said in two pictures. Granted, one was a worst case scenario of Pineda and one was a best case of Lee, but if you watch 5 starts by any two guys, I guarantee you can discern who is commanding the strike zone and who is simply trying to throw strikes
I usually post at a guitar forum so if what you see in here is spam, I got confused.
I think you are talking about a difference in strategy,
to account for differences in the single skill of throwing pitches where you want to throw them.
I may be misunderstanding you here
but Pineda throws ~96+, every time, with poor mechanics (the crux of the issue, really) while Lee throws 89-92 with impeccable mechanics. Look at their finishes in those pictures, they are good representations of what I’ve seen of their skill. Pineda has a golden arm, is 6’7’’/260, and is very young. Lee is a champion athlete with middling ‘stuff’ who didn’t break out until his age 26 and 29 seasons because he had to work his ass off learning to get down the mound farther, get on top of the ball, and repeat his mechanics. He can rear back for 94 at times, but his location suffers, so he consistently pumps 90 exactly where it should be. It’s a very different feel for pitching than Pineda throwing as hard as he can in the general area of the glove and getting away with it not being exactly right most of the time.
Please redirect me if I digress from your intended point, I have a hard time zeroing in on the point. I go to an interdisciplinary university
I usually post at a guitar forum so if what you see in here is spam, I got confused.
How does Pineda have bad mechanics?
I can’t imagine that a player can have the kind of control he has without almost perfectly repeating his delivery almost every time he throws the ball.
He doesn't have good mechanics
BUT I WON’T JINX ANYTHING
I usually post at a guitar forum so if what you see in here is spam, I got confused.
It's interesting you should ask this
“Have you spent much time studying other pitchers and the amount that catchers have to move their gloves to make a catch?”
This is actually the first thing I look for when watching any pitcher, and I know it’s high up on Jeff’s list too, because we have exchanged many, many emails over the years about ways of actually measuring where the target might be. Location and movement are the two key parts of pitching, and although you can cite ball and strike percentages the best way of determining location is spotting the target and seeing how far away the pitch goes.
Like Jeff says, it’s an inexact art, but it’s something I know he watches very closely.
by Graham MacAree on May 5, 2011 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions
My question would be if the individual catcher affects this at all.
Perhaps some catchers targets are more stable than others, and some catchers may set up early, or later.
Sobriety is... Interesting.
Yeah, I believe it.
Like I said, I think if anyone can make a meaningful comment on this, it’s Jeff.
But I still am not sure these subjective observations by anyone are better than the only objective numbers we have on the ability of pitchers to throw pitches where they want them to go: ball% and BB%. Or perhaps, ball% on 3-0 counts for non-IBBs.
Sometimes you don't want to throw strikes
It’s a grey area and one we have no data for, so we then have to rely on our eyes. For me it’s a lot like fielding in that regard – we can look for unreliable analytical shortcuts or we can trust those who watch a lot of a certain player (and know what they’re doing) to give us better answers.
There’s a gap in our knowledge, and Jeff is trying to fill it, because current statistics don’t tell the whole story. So we rely on ‘scouting’, if you will.
by Graham MacAree on May 5, 2011 4:12 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yes, I agree with everything you've just said,
and I find Jeff’s post useful.
And I also think there is room for my counterpoint. I’m surprised you’re not the first to applaud my stubborn promotion of the objective measure. And I think your example of fielding supports my point more than yours. I suppose your parenthetical prevents me from bringing up, say, Geoff Baker on Raul’s defense, but you’d agree that good defense is tough to discern with your eyes, even for professionals.
I also think your point that sometimes pitchers don’t want to throw strikes is a good one. That was the reason I brought up the stat: Ball% on 3-0 counts that are not IBBs. Perhaps that is not the best measure, but it is an example of how to try to control for pitches thrown intentionally out of the zone.
RE: Fielding
I’d actually disagree with you that good defence is tough to discern – professionals know it when they see it, and I think fans who watch enough games do too. However, the problem is putting a value on that defence, which requires a league-wide context, something defensive statsitics should be able to do far better than our eyes and memory. Unfortunately, there are problems with defensive stats, so we also should be listening to people who watch tonnes and tonnes of baseball for a living as well.
Regarding looking at 3-0 – it’s a) cutting the sampling down by a lot, b) not accounting for non-intentional intentional walks, which we see sometimes and c) preselecting for pitchers who get into 3-0 counts, no? I like the concept, but the finer we cut the stats the more we’re left with a sampling that to me, at least is unacceptable.
by Graham MacAree on May 5, 2011 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions
All good points on the sample size,
and I think the sample size point should apply to our judgments about Pineda’s command as well.
While I have your attention, I am curious about your thoughts on a discussion that is a bit up-thread. Do you think command and control represent the same singular skill (i.e., the ability to pitch to a specific location) and are thus almost perfectly correlated, or two separate skills (i.e., the ability to throw to a specific location, and the ability to throw to the strike zone)?
Re command/control
They’re certainly incredibly intertwined, but command is the more focused of the two, I think. My feeling (and I’ll leave it to someone else to run the studies and whatnot – I’m sure Matthew could) is that pitchers tend to miss in a way that’s biased in a certain direction, thanks to pitch movement and delivery. That would mean that you can cover up for a pitcher lacking the command of a Cliff Lee by giving him a target in an area that would still probably result in a strike if the pitcher misses.
A further thought on command, though… We know that pitchers almost never want to throw straight down the middle where they get hit the hardest, so why not define an area of the strike zone that should be ‘no go’ and see what percentage of strikers are thrown to that area compared to the edges. It’s not quite the same as a catcher setting a target and the pitcher hitting it, but at least we know it’s somewhere pitchers should only be hitting if they have missed.
by Graham MacAree on May 5, 2011 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Thanks,
very interesting. I think your k% excluding “no go” pitches would be a very useful study.
I still think the catcher's target itself should be taken into account.
If he’s set up early and not moving, you can probably assume it’s an accurate representation of where they wanted the pitch to end up. But if he’s setting up late, and perhaps not as stable, then there may be some margin for error there.
Sobriety is... Interesting.
I think it should too
But we have no data for that, and this is a way of looking at it analytically without sitting around and waiting for that data to appear
by Graham MacAree on May 5, 2011 5:13 PM PDT up reply actions
And it would require a person to watch every single pitch and make a determination.
I think much like defense, this is something that would be hard to quantify with numbers (the catcher’s target).
Sobriety is... Interesting.
Not even a failsafe
because we cannot guarantee the pitcher’s intent.
The catcher and pitcher communicate through a limited number of hand signals and we cannot know for certain that they always agree on exactly where the pitch should go. The true measurement is not where the catcher wants the pitch, it’s where the pitcher is aiming. The catcher’s glove set up is merely a proxy and not always a reliable one.
There are stories of catchers and pitchers that don’t like to set up and show where the pitch should be because they’re afraid of tipping off hitters either glancing back or getting signals from a runner on 2nd.
by Matthew on May 5, 2011 5:21 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Wait, so was I wrong about the idea that control counts pitches that are swung out of the strike zone?
I thought control was any strike, so a pitcher with nasty stuff but not the greatest aim would get credit for control if they could throw a pitch that, even if it’s not a strike, is difficult to hit and gets swings.
...and now I'm here
My understanding has always been that control is hitting the zone, command is hitting the target
It’s entirely possible that I’m wrong.
by Graham MacAree on May 5, 2011 5:17 PM PDT up reply actions
That's really as complicated as it needs to be
I usually post at a guitar forum so if what you see in here is spam, I got confused.
My opinion:
Many people use strike% as a measure of control. Strike% includes all swings as strikes. So, in that sense, a swing and a miss at a pitch out of the strike zone represents good control.
But, I think this is just a reason why strike% is not a perfect measure for control, which is generally thought of as the ability to throw a strike on purpose.
sorry, didn't mean to post that yet
Meant to say in the body those pictures mean absolutely zero. I can guarantee that there are pictures of Pineda hitting the glove spot on and Cliff Lee giving up a long ball when he was in the zone but missed the spot.
This is a silly complaint
Jeff was explaining the difference between command and control. He was not saying that because of these two pitches, we can conclude that Pineda has inferior command to Cliff Lee.
by Graham MacAree on May 5, 2011 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Seems to be a lot of vitriol over this post.
How bizarre. Are people offended at the notion that Pineda is not, in fact, perfect? Yet.
I heard he shits rainbow butterflies and rare Faberge eggs.
I am going to come into your house at night and rec up the place.
Yes, generally the threshold for caring lies just past the 2 shits marker.
As Thingray eloquently expresses below.
I am going to come into your house at night and rec up the place.
I find the whole thing to be shallow and pedantic.
Yes, shallow and pedantic.
"When I bust I swing exactly like my homeboy"
It is difficult to know to which "thing" you refer
among the ray of things.
You know, the thing...
Obscure Family Guy reference.
Sobriety is... Interesting.
Oxymoron; one of the most popular shows on television
hard to call anything they do on that show ‘obscure’ even if it was in the early seasons, pre-cancellation. Even the animation style makes it hard for them to do anything subtle enough to be obscure, like putting something in the background or something.
I usually post at a guitar forum so if what you see in here is spam, I got confused.
Excellent point.
I guess I was just thinking it’s not exactly a running gag.
Sobriety is... Interesting.
Yeah, "that funny thing that happened that one time in that one show"
counts as an obscure reference.
Behold, the Platyproliferatorinator!
...and now I'm here
didn't mean to bust yer balls.
just struck a nerve with me, sometimes I dickishly point out harmless vocab mistakes. No one benefits from it, I should stop.
I usually post at a guitar forum so if what you see in here is spam, I got confused.
What color are those red fire trucks?
...and now I'm here
Don't help me Lois, I can do this...
Sobriety is... Interesting.
I thought all Faberge eggs were rare?
Ehh, I don’t give two shits anyway.
"When I bust I swing exactly like my homeboy"
Secondary thought to make you smile:
Pineda is only using two pitches right now
Michael Pineda arrested for domestic violence after beating his changeup?
by seattlebruin on May 5, 2011 4:27 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
The changeup was asking for it.
Sobriety is... Interesting.
I doubt it will press charges.
It still loves him.
Sobriety is... Interesting.
For all the hype and expectations we've put on Pineda this season,
I’m thinking that I may have underestimated him. Pineda’s been one of the best pitchers in the AL this season, but he hasn’t been particularly lucky.
Someone posted this graph in today’s Red Sox game thread at Sons of Sam Horn (don’t worry- I was only there to read the SAWKS fans flames regarding Lackey’s terrible outing). It indicates that the “skill” (I assume FIP) that Pineda has displayed this season is similar to that of Verlander and Sabathia, yet he also has been practically neutral in terms of “luck”.
He is displaying excellence, and while he will have some bad outings someday (I think), he shouldn’t really be expected to fall off much. Although I suppose arm fatigue could become an issue later on.
Either way, I feel that soon we will be able to declare “Pineda Day” an official holiday, and be justified for being worthless piles of crap at work on these days. Considering ~40% of game days will be holidays, I hope there aren’t many air traffic controllers who are Mariners fans.
Any more holidays and the Mariners will be Jewish.
...and now I'm here
by CapSea on May 5, 2011 5:02 PM PDT up reply actions 8 recs
My Saturdays would be much more productive.
I would have a perfect lawn if this happened.
Hey, c'mon
The Mariners wish they could bat like Gabe Kappler. Though maybe you meant they bat like Sandy Koufax…
Seriously, I guess the Mariners fall somewhere between Ian Kinsler and Moe Berg:
Ian Kinsler: .231 / .343 / .462
Mariners: .232 / .311 / .329
Moe Berg: .243 / .278 / .299
(That’s 2011 numbers for Kinsler, career numbers for Berg)
Hmmm, looking a little further, the M’s collectively resemble no chosen one so much as their former manager, Bob Melvin: .233 / .268 / .337
Though I had no idea he was Jewish until just now, when Wikipedia told me so.
by J0SER on May 6, 2011 2:06 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Mike Mordecai career OPS: .665
2010 Mariners OPS: .637
Don’t be an anti-Semite:)
by mkries on May 6, 2011 4:46 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Pineda is reminding me of Felix's first year
I still think Felix is awesome but after his first year I thought he would throw a no-hitter every game forever.
I guess...lt's like they're getting to a similar level through completely different methods.
When Felix came up, he was fresh off of walking 4-5/9IP in AAA. He was much better in MLB, of course, and a big reason why was his advanced breaking pitches. The Royal Curve, a great change-up, the Forbidden Slider. He was effective, because he came up with some of the best offspeed stuff in MLB (and a high-90s FB).
Pineda didn’t walk many in the minors, and hasn’t walked many in the majors. He’s just a freak flinging four-seamers in the zone, and when hitters sit on it, he’ll throw a slider that really isn’t all that great or a change-up that’s worse than that. Often, it doesn’t matter….just being slower than 98mph is enough for hitters to swing ahead of it. Pineda’s effective because he came up with one of the best fastballs in MLB (and a decent slider too).
I went to Felix's last three or four starts in Tacoma
And I really got the impression he was bored much of the time. He’d futz around, walk a guy, and then with men on base he’d kind of wake up, focus, and strike out the rest of the side (with pretty much all fastballs the AAA guys couldn’t get around on). That’s probably an exaggerated memory, but it certainly left that impression.
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