Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

I don't know if Jeff/Matthew were planning on doing any sort of draft preview stuff, and the pieces that tarheels1 and Humbled Fan were posting seemed more focused on the mock draft at Minor League Ball, so this is what I have on the names in the first round. Nothing about it is groundbreaking, but I tried to be fairly comprehensive.

(toot toot)

12 months ago Claw_tiny JY 53 comments 7 recs  | 

Story-email Email Printer Print

More from Lookout Landing

MLB Draft Rounds 2-30 Open Thread

Jun 2011 by Matthew - 622 comments

Comments

Display:

The more I read about it, the less strongly I feel about any particular player.

Yeah, I still want Rendon and think he fits as both a position player (woo!) and you given the Les Mis offense and state of the farm system, he fits an organizational need as well. Yes, I know the platitude about not drafting for need.

But if Rendon should go first, I could understand and embrace nearly any of the other guys you mentioned without much hesitation. Hey there, Trevor Bauer and your splattered frog delivery. I’m into it. Let’s do this.

by abender20 on May 31, 2011 1:21 PM PDT reply actions  

That's pretty much where I'm at.

I love the idea of Rendon, but the fact that he’s just not releasing the pertinent medical information seems a liiittle sketchy. As a result, I’m starting to feel roughly the same way about him as I do about anybody.

What’s going to be a riot is three years from now when all of the above players have had an opportunity to establish themselves and everyone comes out of the woodwork to grouse about “WE SHOULD HAVE PICKED THIS GUY IT WAS SOOOOO OBVIOUS”

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on May 31, 2011 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions   2 recs

I secretly feel*, and completely without any rational support, that Bauer is going to become a Cahill-style powerjunker.

The flashy upside probably isn’t there and it’d probably be dumb to take him over Cole given current evidence, but if I were given a ballot for the Tulowitzki Award for 2011, it would be him. Notice how I’ve cleverly avoided calling it the Lincecum Award? Clever.

*Not so secret now, is it?

by abender20 on May 31, 2011 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

That's a nice comp for Bauer.

He’s certainly an interesting guy with how much process seems to go into him being all that he can be. I definitely wouldn’t bet against him, but as you said, his ceiling and everyone else’s ceiling are different. His floor seems like it could be a lot higher though.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on May 31, 2011 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

Can't believe the draft is almost here.

So many names though. Not sure which one I’d be happiest with. Maybe Rendon still, but I dunno. I hope we get this one right!

by ThundaPC on May 31, 2011 2:48 PM PDT reply actions  

I have a growing feeling that Bundy, Lindor, or Starling (if he commits to baseball pre-draft) might be the best choices for us.

The now well-known question marks about Anthony Rendon (medical records, injury-proneness, power drough) and Cole (command and hittability problems) give me pause.

Francisco Lindor is definitely fascinating and you really can’t have too many legit shortstop prospects.

Bubba Starling has the upside of Mickey Mantle, but he’s the riskiest and furthest from the majors out of this group and I wouldn’t touch him unless he commits 100% to baseball and agrees to sign quickly enough to get some rookie ball experience this summer.

I really like the 18 year-old Dylan Bundy because has almost all the velocity, makeup, upside, polish, and arsenal of the 21 year-old Gerrit Cole but hasn’t taken any steps backward recently. If we assume that they both sign too late to play minor league ball in 2011, Cole is looking at 1+ year in the minors while Bundy is looking at 2+ years, which isn’t a huge difference if you think about it. Moreover, Bundy will have less mileage on his arm and we would benefit from having more of his peak velocity age (21-24) in the majors than we would with Cole.

The immense, almost unprecedent strength of this draft class’s top 200 makes going after a safe but low-upside pick like Bauer or Hultzen a silly idea. The Mariners, who have picks 2, 62, 92, 121, and 123, should be able to get guys who are quite similar to Bauer and Hultzen in upside and not far below them in their chances for success.

by Decatur on May 31, 2011 5:19 PM PDT reply actions  

I want Cole, then Rendon then Starling

and will be mildly disappointed/annoyed if they pick anyone else. I’ll be very frustrated if they take Hultzen

by seattlebruin on May 31, 2011 5:34 PM PDT reply actions  

I don't want Hultzen either, and I think there's a very low probability of it happening.

Cole has great stuff, but the command is not so hot.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on May 31, 2011 5:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

If not for selfish reasons and Rendon's medicals, I would want Rendon

but I think Cole has a way higher upside than Bauer, and it’s not like Bauer doesn’t come with question marks of his own.

abender and I were discussing this, but we think it makes a lot of sense to take a guy who is closer to MLB ready because we’re not the Pirates or the Royals – we have a real budget and reasonable aspirations of competing in the not-too-distant future. Because of that, if you think that say Cole is anywhere close to Bundy, you take Cole because he would be ready to contribute to the big league team faster

by seattlebruin on May 31, 2011 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm not sure that's really true. Cole has, at this point, almost as much stuff to work on in the minors as Bundy does. Everyone thinks that Bundy and Lindor will be the two quickest high-schoolers to reach the big leagues.

Everything is firing on all cylinders for Bundy, and unless he takes a big step backwards, it sounds like most people think he’d be in the majors after, at most, two years. Cole will need at least a year in the minors.

by Decatur on May 31, 2011 6:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

One year makes a huge difference in this scenario, assuming you think that Cole has a good chance of contributing

and that his upside is near Bundy’s.

Plus, I’m irrationally distrustful of high school pitchers, anyway

by seattlebruin on May 31, 2011 6:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

I would prefer both Bauer and Cole to Bundy simply because of this

unless you honestly think that Bundy has a significantly higher potential than Bauer or Cole with similar risk, it would be hard for me to rationalize selecting him

by seattlebruin on May 31, 2011 10:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

The risk is there, as it is with all HS pitchers

but Bundy is an outlier among them in terms of abilities, composure, and work ethic.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on May 31, 2011 10:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

My preference, in order:

Rendon, Cole, Bundy, Bauer, Hultzen, Lindor, Starling.

I still think Rendon, being the lone college hitter in the group, is the safest bet even considering his injuries. I think Cole and Bundy have the best stuff, and are pretty comparable, though if I had to choose I go with the college player (as a general rule).

Bauer’s interesting, but I wonder how much his stuff will hold up to big-leaguers. His velocity isn’t what Lincecum’s was, and in terms of unconventional deliveries I still think that Lincecum is the exception rather than the rule. It would be complacent on everyone’s part to think that just because someone throws differently, he’s going to have similar success. That being said, Bauer seems like a smart guy and I wouldn’t be too angry if we chose him.

Hultzen I feel is the safest bet, but not with the upside of anyone else. I echo JY’s thoughts on him here. I shy away from high school players in general, save cant-misses like Harper and J Upton, and I feel too much can go wrong with either Lindor or Starling.

Boy, I would love to be in the D-Backs position. You get to grab two of these players.

"Satisfaction is the enemy of success." SanFranPreps

by perfectstrat on May 31, 2011 6:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

Right now my preference of the top 4 is Rendon, Cole, Bauer, and Bundy. So very close to yours.

And really, I wouldn’t name a 5th guy. I’d be upset if we took any other name at #2.

I know that the D’Backs will grab one of those guys, but I’m not so sure they’ll grab another one at #7. It’s a good position to be in depending on what they’re willing to spend.

follow @casetines

by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 2, 2011 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

Rendon, Bauer, Starling.

Rendon because he’s a perfect fit for the team..I know that you shouldn’t draft for need, but considering he’s getting comparisons to David Wright & Ryan Zimmerman, it wouldn’t really be that. The injuries are somewhat concerning, but not enough for me to not want him the most. Bauer just seems fucking awesome. He throws a billion different pitches, he has a retarded delivery, he’s a genius…he’s the most interesting prospect in the world. Bubba Starling has the coolest name & is the toolsiest player in the draft, & I love me some tools.

by SuperDopaLiciousFunkStar on Jun 1, 2011 3:47 AM PDT via mobile reply actions  

If you had to guess what kind of players we'll be targeting in the draft, what would you say?

College vs. Prep
Pitchers vs. Positional
Hitting vs. Defense
Talent vs. Skills
etc.

by Edgar for Pres on Jun 2, 2011 4:27 PM PDT reply actions  

We know certain preferences.

As I’ve said elsewhere, they love LH bats and switch hitters, and will take gym rats and such over guys who are talented but lack skills. At the same time, the two drafts we’ve had are quite different from one another, one seemed to emphasize college hitting, the other, prep pitching. I’d say that it would probably be somewhere in between there, a more balanced approach this time out.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Jun 3, 2011 12:28 AM PDT up reply actions  

So we're looking at the draft on Monday...

and Doctor KLaw and others are now saying the Pirates are all about pitching with 1/1 which means we get Rendon.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Jun 3, 2011 12:37 PM PDT reply actions  

But medicals

although to be honest, I want Rendon if he’s there. Even above Gerrit Cole or Trevor Bauer.

I am praying Bauer asks for $5M and slips to 62

by seattlebruin on Jun 4, 2011 4:14 AM PDT up reply actions  

Not gonna lie, I'm nervous

We should probably take Rendon anyways because he’s clearly got huge potential and even if he is hurt he can likely be fixed and still be a very good player. But to me (and this is just my personal conjecture) the strained shoulder doesn’t sound like it’s just a strained shoulder from the way it has continued being a problem this long, and the no medicals. Maybe they can get him some platelet therapy and it’ll be fine or something but it definitely makes the decision less of a no-brainer than it would’ve been. That said I’ll still be happy if we pick him.

by OlSalty on Jun 4, 2011 5:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

The way the baseball draft works is just so weird to me.

I guess we don’t have anything to compare it to. In cricket it’s all basically farm system depending on where you live/grow up, and in the AFL you’re so thankful you’re drafted you sign wherever you get picked to whatever salary they give you as a first year player (I think).
How significant a change would going to hard slot be?

by Aussie Mariner on Jun 4, 2011 3:15 AM PDT reply actions  

Pretty significant.

Hard slot wouldn’t allow the Yankees/Red Sox to overpay talented players that had excessive demands. It would also likely result in more prep players going to college first to try to help improve their stock.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Jun 4, 2011 8:52 AM PDT up reply actions  

Thanks for that, greatly appreciated.

I wondered about the prep players to college kind of thing.
Although it makes me wonder if soem of the clubs wouldn’t start trying to do fancy things with tuition, sponsorships etc to get around the hard slot amount. That has been known to happen in Australia with some of the rugby codes to get around the salary cap.

by Aussie Mariner on Jun 4, 2011 10:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

Hey, you described the cricket scene as basically one big farm system. I think it would be fascinating to see someone compare player development in cricket and baseball (not that I'm asking you yourself to do so),

but could you briefly describe how the drafting and player development process works in cricket (for Australia and for the rest of the best cricket countries, e.g. India, South Africa, England, Pakistan, etc.)? There’s no other major U.S. league where facing many levels of progressively tougher competition is essential to player development like it is in baseball, but cricket is so similar to baseball that it presents an interesting comparison. I know absolutely nothing about cricket, but I’d love to hear your thoughts on the subject. Lastly, I know there are many international matches, but what is the highest level of club competition in cricket (i.e., is there something like the Champions League in cricket?) and do players tend to play club cricket mostly in their home countries or do they go all over the place like in the Premier League and the big European leagues?

by Decatur on Jun 4, 2011 9:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

TL;DR: I'm not much of a cricket fan.

To my knowledge there’s no such thing as a farm system in cricket

The highest level is international (someone more of a cricket fan might argue that the Indian Premier League has taken top spot but it’ll be a few years before I believe them). Every country has its domestic leagues but I find it very difficult to care about them. English County cricket, for example, bores the arse off me.

by Eyeball Kid on Jun 4, 2011 9:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

True, there's not.

But it seemed like the closest comparison I could make that would make sense without a long winded explanation (see below).

by Aussie Mariner on Jun 4, 2011 10:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

Good, because I'm not qualified to do so in any way shape or form!

The way cricket works in Australia is you start to play for your local club in age brackets, progress into regular grade cricket, from there you hope to be identified to play in state/regional representative teams, state second teams. If you continue to do well you may get a rookie contract with the state (this is probably about equivalent to a minor league deal), and if you play enough for the state you’ll get a regular state contract.
State players then might play for Australia A, which is actually the “B” team to get some exposure to playing other A teams from other countries and usually in warm up games against sides from other countries warming up for the real thing against Australia. If you continue to perform well or if there are injuries and you’re lucky (or both) you might get the call to play for the national side.
Though it’s important to note you don’t have to progress through all these stages.
There’s no such thing as team control, you play for a team only as long as you’re contracted to them. There’s no really formal free agency, once you’re out of contract you can sign anywhere. I think the states all have a salary cap, but I could be wrong. National side contracted players don’t count towards this, though.
And there’s no trading of players, either.
I think that’s everything relevant. I can’t speak for how it works in other countries because I don’t really know.

by Aussie Mariner on Jun 4, 2011 10:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

In England,

The cricket system is similar to Aussie Mariner above, but the schools especially the more well to do schools provide a lot of the talent in this country. Many of the good young cricketers will play for junior county teams from early to mid teens and then either break into their county teams at 18-19 or get a scholarship to University (Cambridge, Oxford, Durham or Loughborough mostly) and continue their development there. I think that international cricket starts at around a U15-16 level and many of the England players have played from this level through to the senior team.

by ChelseaMariner on Jun 5, 2011 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

By reading a game thread of your own volition you agree to accept all liability for any and all damage done to your delicate sensibilities.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Small
Starlin Castro's fit with Seattle
Kawasaki80_small
Lists! So many lists!
M_s_hat_copy_small
OT -- May 22nd In Memoriam
Ichiro_small
Why do managers and media members hate walks?
Wbc_029_small
Friday Morning Music Thread
Small
Dustin Ackley BP swing vs game swing
Beastquakerwallpaper_small
More on the Struggles of Smoak
Randy2_for_sbn_small
Albert Pujols 2012: Three Retrospectives
Small
On Batting Orders
Niehaus_small
More on Dustin Ackley and the strikezone

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

Yahoo_full_count

Sexy People

Wbc_029_small Jeff Sullivan

Small Matthew

Claw_small JY