An Exercise in Futility

Despite their recent win streak, it's blatantly obvious that the Mariners have a mediocre offense. The adjective I hear most often out of our broadcast booth is "timely." Timely offense. I think Jeff mentioned a while back that that's code for inept. Either way, timely offense isn't sustainable, and certainly not "good" or even "average." While some players have kept the offense watchable, it's clear not everyone is playing well. It speaks volumes about this team when Adam Kennedy is the second-best hitter.

Because of how bad the Mariners offense has been, you often see casual fans rallying for more small-ball; moving runners over and making productive outs will help us win, they say. Traditional sabermetric knowledge says that the bunt is generally an ineffective play, especially in the American League, where there are no pitchers. But I found myself pondering, with the low run-scoring environment the Mariners have imposed on themselves, combined with offense down league-wide, is the bunt a strategy that should be used? Specifically, which Mariners, based on just this season's performance, should have bunted often?

For this hypothetical, my friends, we should consult The Book. League-wide offense is down considerably since Tom Tango did his study in the height of the ‘Steroid Era' (2000-2004, primarily), and so we'll have to adjust the numbers a little bit but use the same methodology.

Turn to page 260, and you'll find the following boxed:

In an average run environment, and not considering the bunting proficiency or speed of the batter, or the speed of the runner on first, if the batter has an expected wOBA of less than .300, 44 points less than the league average, he can attempt a sacrifice bunt, even if the defense is expecting one.

At the time of Tango's writing, the average wOBA was .344, and the rule states that you needed a .300 wOBA to bunt, or a wRC+ of about 70 or below, using a rough estimate of one point of wOBA to one half run above/below average (thanks seattlebruin!).  While the league-average wOBA now sits around .321, that would make a wRC+ of 70 equal to a .277 (park-neutral) wOBA, give or take a few points.

So, if a batter with a .277 wOBA or less comes up with a runner on first and no outs, and if they can successfully sacrifice, then the resultant run expectancy will be similar to the RE if the  batter where to swing away, given a large enough sample.

The Book goes on to say:

In a low run-scoring environment, and not considering the bunting proficiency or speed of the batter, or the speed of the runner on first (with no outs), almost any batter can attempt a sacrifice bunt, as long as the defense is playing accordingly (the better the hitter, the more the defense must be playing back).

In reality, that .277 wOBA is less than the actual threshold needed for a sacrifice, as the Mariners are in a lower run-scoring environment given the league-wide offense, the Mariners offense, and their home park. All of these parameters lead to situations more conducive to a sacrifice bunt.

Anyway, let's look at Mariner hitters with more than 60 PA who can and should bunt often, if in the situation described above.

Keep in mind that the wOBAs listed are not park or league-adjusted. When these batters come up to bat, given their performance so far this season, it would have been more productive for all but maybe Brendan Ryan to sacrifice often. That's more than half of our regular lineup.

It's unlikely these players will continue this level of futility, but if you needed another way to illustrate how bad our offense has been, now you have it.