Today's Michael Pineda Fun Fact

by Jeff Sullivan on May 23, 2011 12:16 PM PDT in Seattle Mariners Stats

I was skimming over a Baseball Prospectus chat with Mike Fast today when I happened upon the following question and response:

Lucas Apostoleris (Massachusetts): Would you be able to elaborate on your issues with HR/FB?

Mike Fast: There are issues with classifications of fly balls for one thing, and ballparks play differently, and very few people or published stats account for either of those.

The other big issue that I have is that directionality of air balls matters a lot, and pitchers have been shown to have a repeatable skill for this. Pulled air balls go out of the park quite frequently, and opposite field air balls almost never do.

Fast's overall answer is certainly interesting, but I want to focus on the second part of his reply real quick and pull it out of a simple discussion about HR/FB. Directionality of batted balls allowed doesn't get a whole lot of talk, but it's pretty damn important. It should come as little surprise that the most damage is done on batted balls that are pulled, with the following being the 2011 AL breakdown:

Pulled: .387 average, .708 SLG
Up the middle: .284 average, .402 SLG
Opposite: .277 average, .392 SLG

It stands to reason, then, that a pitcher who allows more pulled balls will be less successful, and a pitcher who allows fewer pulled balls will be more successful, relative to the average. So without taking up any more of your time, here's a table comparing a bunch of baseball's top righties this season (note: all balls, not just fly balls):

Pitcher	Pull%
Pineda	21%
Lincecum	24%
Weaver	24%
Johnson	24%
Verlander	26%
2010 Strasburg	27%
Halladay	29%
Felix	30%
Haren	33%
Shields	35%
Beckett	35%
Cahill	35%

In first, by a healthy margin, we get our own Michael Pineda. And while I don't know if he's first overall in the league - I didn't check everybody - he's at least first among this elite class of righty starters. And this is a big reason why batters haven't been able to do much damage against him on the balls they've put in play. If they can't pull the ball, they can't hit the ball with maximum bat speed.

I don't know if this is going to continue. I'd assume it'll regress at least a little bit, just because of how far away it is from the rest. But given Pineda's real velocity, perceived velocity, and breaking ball, it makes sense that batters would be off-balance and behind, so he may always allow fewer pulled balls than the average pitcher. And that would limit his home runs and extra-base hits.

Take a step back, and Michael Pineda is amazing. Take a step forward, and Michael Pineda is amazing. Michael Pineda is amazing.

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Comments

The sarcasm level of the "Fun Fact" designation is one of the surest barometers of current team success.

by TheBishop on May 23, 2011 12:19 PM PDT reply actions 13 recs

This "Fun Fact" is actually fun.

I am surprised, and sort of disappointed.

by georgmi on May 23, 2011 12:23 PM PDT reply actions

He seems to pound balls up and a way too, but that's just an impression I get and i haven't checked any heat maps

But this would also limit pulled fly balls. Pineda is awesome, who’d have thought he’d be pitching like a cy young winner out of the gate? My favorite part about him is how everyone raves about his work ethic and his desire to be better and learn the ins and outs of smart pitching. He’s already special and it can only go up from here.

by Shmelix Shmernandez on May 23, 2011 12:41 PM PDT via mobile reply actions

Fangraphs heat maps would seem to agree with you.

by MT Olson on May 23, 2011 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions

This is an interesting angle to take on the usual HR/FB discussion

It certainly makes sense that categorizing the fly balls as a whole would go a long way towards better understanding what a pitcher is doing and even just differentiating between pull/middle/opposite seems to give a decent picture of what is going on.

by tootthekazoo on May 23, 2011 12:45 PM PDT reply actions

Then there's (guys like) Pegeuro who can hit the 401 feet to opposite field field

All be it, that was a double at Petco

by sofa_king on May 23, 2011 12:55 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions

*ball

by sofa_king on May 23, 2011 12:56 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions

*albeit

: )

by msb on May 23, 2011 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions

*Peguero

by pdb on May 23, 2011 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions

*so fucking

by Jeff Sullivan on May 23, 2011 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions 11 recs

*field

field

by GrodyToadie on May 23, 2011 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions

This is cool

Did you do this by hand?

by Edgar for Pres on May 23, 2011 12:53 PM PDT reply actions

Yes

There are obviously ways to automate this but I don’t know how. Data Fairy?

by Jeff Sullivan on May 23, 2011 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs

Yeah

Its cool. It would be a useful stat to be able to look up. I haven’t thought about it much but it makes a lot of sense.

by Edgar for Pres on May 23, 2011 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions

I've often wondered by what magic Weaver has been able to limit home runs over his career.

Where did you get this info Jeff? I’d love to look up some if the guys with elevated HR/FB.

by Bearskin Rugburn on May 23, 2011 12:55 PM PDT reply actions

How is this not a Small Sample Size problem for Mr. Pineda?

It just seems like he’d have a lot less statistical history to judge this on; compared to many of the others in the list. (Not that I’m complaining about the resulting data, mind you!)

by NWade on May 23, 2011 1:25 PM PDT reply actions

I would imagine that, if studied enough, it would be found that this is probably something that stabilizes pretty quickly

I mean, unless he stops throwing hard and generating poor contact/pullable balls, what is there to change?

by tootthekazoo on May 23, 2011 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions

These are all single-season numbers

I’m pretty sure there’s a sample size issue at play here, hence the expected regression, but it also makes intuitive sense that batters would pull the ball less often against Pineda than the would against most others.

by Jeff Sullivan on May 23, 2011 1:33 PM PDT up reply actions