Series Preview: Seattle Mariners @ Minnesota Twins

by Matthew on May 23, 2011 2:00 PM PDT in Seattle Mariners Previews

	MARINERS (22-24)	Δ Ms	TWINS (15-30)	EDGE
HITTING (wOBA)	-35.3 (29th)	1.4	-45.2 (30th)	Seattle
ROTATION (tRA)	21.2 (3rd)	7.2	-19.2 (27th)	Seattle
BULLPEN (tRA)	4.1 (11th)	-0.7	-12.2 (27th)	Seattle
OVERALL(RAA)	-10.0 (21st)	6.9	-76.6 (30th)	SEATTLE

The Twins lost Glen Perkins to the disabled list, but have activated Jim Thome so there's a little higher threat of punch in their lineup now while their bullpen gets even worse. Two left-handed starters for us this series will aid in mitigating Thome a pinch and this should be another opportunity for the Mariner pitchers to flex some run-prevention muscle. It feels slightly weird when things go exactly according to plan as they did in San Diego, but a repeat of that would be swell.

It would also be swell if the offense could continue being feasible while maybe taking a little bitty step forward as well. They have hit just eight home runs in the entire month of May. Building off of Dave's point about Figgins' walks, he has just two this month in 70 trips to the plate while Miguel Olivo of all people has nine(!) in 64. I don't think Figgins should be removed the lineup as I don't see anyone on the roster that's a big enough overall improvement there, but it's time to move him out of the top of the lineup. If he's not going to get on base then he's a total drain batting that high. Of course, there's no great candidate to replace him as the entire lineup blows. Good thing you can cook, Mariners, because you put out like a nun.

Never looking at ERA results in surprises when I do happen across it. Aaron Laffey, Jamey Wright and David Pauley all have ERAs under 2? Ten-year-old me would be so stoked. Ten-year-old me was an idiot though. Seriously, children are dumb.

Mon 23 May 17:10
JASON VARGAS*	CARL PAVANO

Carl Pavano's 2011 season has been a downer so far, but he still limits the walks effectively; how surprising. Like Jason Vargas, Pavano relies heavily on a change up for his success, but his change might be even better. At least, it grades out that way. His facial hair is way better too. Vargas needs to step his game up and grow a fu manchu or something. Might as well be as ambiguous as possible, Jason.

Tue 24 May 17:10
DOUG FISTER	NICK BLACKBURN

It's like looking into a mirror! Nick Blackburn has been worse with the results than Doug Fister though. While Fister is running a solid 1.9 K/(BB+HBP) ratio, Blackburn's is down at 1.5 and Blackburn has surrendered more home runs than Fister despite the fewer fly balls allowed.

Wed 25 May 10:10
ERIK BEDARD*	BRIAN DUENSING*

No extra rest for Erik Bedard this time around. Brian Duensing is actually not much of a strikeout guy despite being able to miss bats at a decent rate. His stuff stays around the zone too much to work into many two-strike counts. An exaggerated example is his 17 April start against Tampa Bay where Duensing recorded 15 swinging strikes but just 5 strikeouts.

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NEGATIVE 76 RUNS?

That is just crazy.

"I can't recommend highly enough going back and watching old clips of Jose Lopez." -Jeff Sullivan

by joof on May 23, 2011 2:03 PM PDT reply actions

It took us until Late June last year to be that bad.

"I can't recommend highly enough going back and watching old clips of Jose Lopez." -Jeff Sullivan

by joof on May 23, 2011 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't think the Twins are as bad as they have played recently but I hope they wait at least 3 more days to turn it around.

Hopefully Cust can get into a pitch and use the stupid protruding bleachers at Target Field to get his first dinger.

by wetzelcoal on May 23, 2011 2:19 PM PDT reply actions 4 recs

Rec'd for foresight.

-Brett G.
-Daily Evergreen Staff Sports Writer
Twitter | WSU Baseball Blog

by Brett the 49er on May 23, 2011 5:47 PM PDT up reply actions

David Pauley is freaking me out at this point.

We know he isn’t this good. His BABIP is at .200, and his LOB% is way high as well. FIP even puts him at 2.30—more than double his ERA, sure, but remarkably generous considering David Pauley. xFIP is more in the right direction here at 3.16, but still.

by SeattExPat on May 23, 2011 2:22 PM PDT reply actions

Sorry about the off topicishness of this, but it sort of fits with pitching rotation stuff.

With Felix moving around the rotation so much, are we assuming It’s still going to be Pineda/Felix/ Vargas over the weekend against the Yankees, or is Felix going to leapfrog Pineda? I’m going to Friday’s and Sunday’s games, so I’m just trying to figure out who I’ll get to watch. It’s hard to be disappointed in either Felix or Pineda though!

by Kevman22 on May 23, 2011 2:22 PM PDT reply actions

See the front page post before this one.

I’m gonna say pretty good chance they aren’t flipping them.

by wetzelcoal on May 23, 2011 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions

Thanks, I didn't click the link. Should have done my research a little more thoroughly.

But YAY for Pineda day!

by Kevman22 on May 23, 2011 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions

To add in the defensive component...

According the Fangraphs…

The M’s have the 6th worst Fielding by DRS at -17 runs and the 3rd worst by UZR at -15.8 runs.
The Twins have the 10th worst Fielding by DRS and -10 runs and the 18th worst (or 13st best) by UZR at +2.3 runs.

The M’s poor defensive showing is backed up by a bottom ten BABIP allowed. The biggest culprits so far – Small Sample Size alert – are Langerhans (-8/-6.1 DRS/UZR), Bradley (-4/-7.4), Ichiro (-3/-4.7), Ryan (-2/-2.7) and Luis Rodriguez (-2/-1.2).

by CMC_Stags on May 23, 2011 2:40 PM PDT reply actions

At what point does Matthew start incorporating UZR/TZ/DRS into the previews?

In other words, when can we say those stats paint a semi-accurate portrait of team defensive ability?

Also,

Ten-year-old me would be so stoked. Ten-year-old me was an idiot though. Seriously, children are dumb.

I was like this when I was 14. Does that make me a late bloomer?

"Satisfaction is the enemy of success." SanFranPreps

by perfectstrat on May 23, 2011 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Not sure when he plans to incorporate defense, but

going by the 3 year rule of thumb for individual players:

3yrs divided by 7 major defenders (excluding pitchers/catchers) = ~69 games

Being as how we are 46 games in, I would think you would have to at least consider incorporating defense in the next few weeks.

by MangoLiger on May 23, 2011 4:13 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

For the record, the first time last year Matthew began incorporating UZR on it's own was the Angels series starting May 28th.

by MT Olson on May 23, 2011 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions

Man, Bradley and Langerhans were bad.

"I can't recommend highly enough going back and watching old clips of Jose Lopez." -Jeff Sullivan

by joof on May 23, 2011 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions

Bradley + Langerhans = 85% of our negative UZR

We would be basically average defensively without their “contributions”

by MangoLiger on May 23, 2011 4:15 PM PDT up reply actions

Formatting Request for Matthew

If it’s not too much more work, could you change the graphs to have one color consistantly associated with each pitch type? In this case, it would make it easier to visually compare Fister’s pitch selection with Blackburn’s. They throw the same five pitches, but because of the different use rates, the colors for three of the five is different.

Otherwise, thanks as always for the great previews.

by CMC_Stags on May 23, 2011 2:43 PM PDT reply actions