It's July 25th. The M's are 3 games out. Do you trade Bedard?

by short on May 21, 2011 12:40 PM PDT

So if you're Jack Zduriencik and the M's are in second place, three games out on July 25th what do you do? If Bedard pitches about as well as he has his last four starts, he will be a prized commodity at the trade deadline. Who knows what kinds of offers Jack might get? He could flip Bedard for an outfield prospect to fill the hole in left field. He could get the "catcher of the future," perhaps. On the other hand: playoffs! The value to this franchise right now of a playoff run or even a good pennant race going into next season could be huge for attendance, and therefore, payroll flexibility.

To my mind I don't think you can trade Bedard if the M's are in contention at the deadline. Even though it could help the team in 2012 and beyond, the point of baseball is to win championships and you should never pass up a shot to get to the postseason. Too many things have to go right to get that shot.

A big concern for me if Bedard were traded while the team still had a shot, is the fact that the team would feel a lot of pressure to pitch Pineda an unreasonable number of innings. If the team can go into the playoffs with Felix, Bedard 2.0, Vargas and Fister they might have a shot. Take Bedard out of the picture and, unless they significantly improve the offense, the starting pitching is probably not good enough to win. The team would be sorely temped to put Pineda in the mix. Hell, I might be tempted if it meant winning a playoff series.

One question that plays big into this: does Bedard have any shot at being a type B FA? If so this, to me, becomes a pretty easy call as we'd get a draft pick even if we didn't trade him. On the other hand, maybe Jack will short-circuit this whole dilemma by just trading Bedard in June. Given Bedard's history this might be the way to go.

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Are they legitimately three games back or have they been playing over their heads?

How far back in third place?
Which team is in first and do they look poised to be better or worse in the second half?
How has attendance/TV ratings been?
Where do they stand in the Wild Card?
Has anyone from Tacoma looked ready to fill a rotation slot?
What’s Pineda’s status for the rest of the season?
What’s the NL playoff picture look like? You’d prefer to trade Bedard to an NL team after all.
What are Bedard’s thoughts on a new contract for 2012?
What kind of trade value can you get back?
What would the public perception be if they trade Bedard for [fill in from above] and replace him in the rotation with [fill in from above]?
Do you have payroll room to buy instead of sell?

Nothing is ever cut and dry and the single most important variable, the hypothetical trade return, can only be wildly speculated about.

by Matthew on May 21, 2011 12:52 PM PDT reply actions 29 recs

You have to be really careful here because Erik Bedard took a pay cut to come back to Seattle.

I think, given the team’s position and Bedard’s mind-set, that you have to keep him on the team. But all of the questions Matthew asked above are involved.

I think, on some level, it’s good business to consider players’ thoughts after they make concessions to stick around. Having a reputation as a player-friendly team is likely to help in the acquisition of free agents.

I write for Stumptown Footy, SB Nation's Portland Timbers blog.

by thehemogoblin on May 21, 2011 1:12 PM PDT reply actions

Honestly, it depends on what happens

I think buzz is starting to build on him being a major trade piece for someone but I don’t see a team like Boston or NYY going after him. Really, it’d likely be another intra-division deal to Texas or something making most sense but all of Matthew’s questions would have to be answered first. It will be interesting to see.

by MattoB on May 21, 2011 1:21 PM PDT reply actions

I'd be hesitant to trade him, although wouldn't rule it out

The idea being to get a prospect back that can help in the future, when they might have a better shot at success in the playoffs. But I’m skeptical that Bedard would be able to generate the kind of interest to get a impact prospect that would be worth the potential damage you do to your fanbase. And, if they’re only 3 games back, they have potential of making the playoffs this year. From a public relations standpoint, trading him away when they’re seen to have a reasonable chance at the playoffs could do more harm than whatever good the trade brings back.

That’s a tough road to go down, and with Bedard’s recent history, I don’t know that 2 or 3 months of good health and good pitching brings enough back to make it worth it.

by nathaniel dawson on May 21, 2011 1:35 PM PDT reply actions

If we're 3 games back, Z can't trade Bedard and say he's still going for a playoff spot.

That wouldn’t go over well with the fans. The only way a trade would please the fans is if we got a big bat in return and had a good option for our last pitching spot. I suppose that trade could happen, but then who would be our 5th starter? Pauley might do okay, but he would be a huge downgrade.

by joey90 on May 21, 2011 2:05 PM PDT reply actions

I don't understand your comment on a "big bat."

Smoak is about as good as the Mariners could possibly get in a “big bat” prospect, but prospects generally don’t fire up the fans. We won’t get Montero or Yonder for Bedard (well, maybe the Reds will be crazy).

by yuniform on May 22, 2011 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions

The Texas Rangers traded their prized first base prospect as well as other prospects, to a division rival no less, in order to win the AL Pennant.

And Justin Smoak will hopefully haunt them for years to come.

Its more of a question of short term vs. long term priorities, and if the GM feels that they have a shot at the playoffs/World Series, they’ll keep/trade for a player that they know they will lose for free agency because it will benefit them in the short term.

2011 Safeco Field Record: 1-0 ; Overall Safeco Field Record: 13-5

by Fin on May 21, 2011 11:26 PM PDT reply actions

In the end I think a better question

is the one that occurred to me right before I posted this: “It’s June 15th and Bedard’s arm remains attached to his body. Why would you not try to trade him?” Part of this question is whether the potential increase in Bedard’s trade value over the extra month before the deadline is worth the risk that he turns into a pumpkin. I doubt it.

by short on May 22, 2011 11:19 AM PDT reply actions

I think it comes down to chemestry

I think trading Bedard would be very bad for that. We didn’t drop Bradley because we need less offense. Look at our team since he left. Other than League’s blown save fiasco we’ve been one of the best teams in baseball ever since. Our hitters with their tiny little batting averages are hitting and putting runners on base and threatening more than those little averages would suggest they should be.

Doesn’t mean I don’t want a big fat bat brought in but I don’t think trading a club house inspiration is the answer.

by Great Sergios Ghost on May 22, 2011 12:22 PM PDT reply actions

I never thought I'd read that subject line on this blog.

Then again, you also diagnosed Milton Bradley from afar with a serious mental illness. Thanks for your contributions to LL.

by yuniform on May 22, 2011 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs

It's July 25th?

Holy shit I only meant to nap for an hour.

by Aaron Campeau on May 22, 2011 2:27 PM PDT reply actions 19 recs

My biggest issue is there's no one available to replace him in Tacoma.

Blake Beaven doesn’t look ready. Luke French is pretty bad, same goes for Chris Seddon and Chaz Roe. I suppose you can stretch Pauley into becoming a starter again, but as someone already mentioned, he’s a pretty big downgrade.

My other thought is the fact that Bedard chose to stay here in Seattle. I would love to see Jack Z extend him if his health keeps up.

Also, I don’t see Bedard netting the same return that Cliff Lee gets.

3 games out, you keep him, and push for the playoffs in a winnable division.

by seiferguy on May 22, 2011 4:03 PM PDT reply actions

Yes, I'm inclined to think that the rotation is pretty solid now the way it is.

It might be a bit early to say, but its definitely been 2003-esque how no starter has missed a start, if I am thinking correctly.

2011 Safeco Field Record: 1-0 ; Overall Safeco Field Record: 13-5

by Fin on May 22, 2011 11:32 PM PDT up reply actions

Yep, 2003 was the year.

And yet, as incredible as it was to use only 5 starters for an entire season, it wasn’t even that great of a rotation. It was basically four guys who were somewhere between a Jason Vargas and Erik Bedard, and then Ryan Franklin.

I think it’s hard to argue against the current rotation being the best in Mariners’ history.
Compare it to 2003, starting from the bottom:
Fister > Franklin
Vargas ~ Moyer
Bedard > Meche
Pineda >> Piniero
Hernandez >>> Garcia

What other years are there? 2001 is no better than 2003. I guess the next best would be going back to ’97 with a top three of Johnson, Fassero and Moyer. They would be competitive with our current top three, but after them is a whole bunch of nothing.

by pixburgher on May 23, 2011 10:13 AM PDT up reply actions

As much as I'm in love with the current rotation, I wonder how many other franchises could call it a best-ever?

Comparing it to Mariners rotations of past isn’t saying a whole lot. Poor Mariners…

(and of course, if there’s some hidden talent in one of the Mariners pre-winning years, someone feel free to show me what an idiot I am, but I didn’t even bother to check)

by pixburgher on May 23, 2011 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions

I recently had this discussion with HumbledFan.

I obviously don’t know what other GMs are thinking, but I have trouble imagining that any GM would be willing to risk any decent prospects for a rental with such an enormous injury risk. He wouldn’t come close to the Cliff Lee haul.

I actually think, if Jason Vargas keeps pitching remotely close to this well, he’d be the one generating more trade interest.

But as Matthew said above, there are way to many question marks to predict anything now.

I am going to come into your house at night and rec up the place.

by HititHere on May 22, 2011 4:30 PM PDT reply actions

The injury risk has to be looked at in a longer term perspective, though

if it’s a half season rental, the injury concern is a lot less. I still don’t see anyone parting with anything better than like a B prospect for a half season of newfound healthy Bedard, but hey, dumber things have happened

by seattlebruin on May 23, 2011 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions