Fun Fact: Dustin Ackley is More Probably Okay
by Matthew on May 16, 2011 12:00 PM PDT
in Seattle Mariners Good News
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PrintDustin Ackley's batting line on May 7 was .218/.354/.353 and I wrote this piece about how his low ball in play average was probably not a concern going forward.
Ackley is missing seven hits if you assume his true talent BABIP is at that .300 range. Add those seven hits back and his batting average jumps from .218 to .277, his triple slash line becomes .277/.413/.412
Dustin Ackley since May 7th has a BABIP over .400 and has brought his triple-slash line up to .263/.383/.417. He is doing well against both lefties and righties and I have still not heard any legitimate concerns over his defense. We already knew he could work counts. Ackley is starting to show that he can hit for modest power as well as handle second base.
The question then becomes about his time table to Seattle and Jack Zduriencik appeared to address that today when on the radio he surmised that Ackley would get the call "sooner rather than later." Naturally, that doesn't actually mean anything and so we're still left with our initial estimation of early June being the best guess unless something dramatic happens in the meantime.
Ackley's promotion would seem to spell the end of Jack Wilson on the team as Luis Rodriguez is needed to fill in on the left side of the infield and Adam Kennedy can sort of fill in at first base as well. However, that would stack up the left-handed hitters so who knows. I have no special attachment to Jack Wilson, but neither do I to Adam Kennedy.
As a post-note, Jack also commented in his radio interview that Franklin Gutierrez was a week away from joining the team which means one of Michael Saunders, Mike Wilson or Carlos Peguero will head back to Tacoma. It probably will not be Saunders simply because the team needs a backup at center field, but it's not like Saunders has earned a stay.
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How does Ackley project for his first season?
Based on how he’s done when promoted previously we have to expect he won’t be raking for his first few weeks in the bigs. But once he settles in, how good is he likely to be this year? Our second basemen have only put up a .272 wOBA so it’s hard to believe he’d be a big step down in production.
I know this is a non-answer; but look at Smoak...
I think Justin’s a prime example of how you can’t possibly project a guy’s first half-season. The good news is that its not about Ackley’s first season. Its about his next several seasons, and how he helps the M’s down the road. That’s the good part about not being in the pennant race; less pressure on the rookies!
And any half-season for any player
is a small enough sample that just about anything can happen.
I’m not asking Matthew to make an educated guess based on his knowledge of statistical analysis and prospect evaluation. I’m hoping he’ll pull pie-in-the sky, rainbows and unicorns numbers out of nowhere to help fuel my man-lust for Dustin Ackley.
So, something around a wOBA of .320 would do because Mariners.
So instead of you and Jeff mind-melding posts today, its you and Dave?
On a more serious note: Has Jack done enough to be traded to another club; or does he have to join the unemployment line with Milton?
I’m guessing that us not being attached to our middle-infielders isn’t a good sign that they’d be perceived as having any value to other clubs – thus making them a sunk cost without a whole lot of real return. Granted, Wilson’s the only contract that’s cost the team any noticeable money; but every bit helps/hurts… It tough enough watching guys on this team struggle – getting SOMETHING out of them in the end would at least salve the wounds a bit!
Why not ditch Brendan Ryan?
Frankly I would rather slide Jack Wilson back over to short when Ackley comes up, Ryan might be a decent SS but he is dead weight on offense. Is Wilson worth anything on the trade market? It might be worthwhile shipping him somewhere.
I think it has more to do with Wilson and Ryan's age/price.
If Ryan’s bat is dead weight, would you compare Jack’s bat to an anvil?
by SMOAK and mirrors on May 16, 2011 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Why would we ship a cheap, team controlled player away when Jack Wilson is expensive, old and injury prone?
by seattlebruin on May 16, 2011 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions
It's not as if Jack Wilson is lighting the world on fire with his bat
and Brendan Ryan probably won’t run a .244 BABIP all year when his career average is about .290
by seattlebruin on May 16, 2011 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions
Yuni's putting up a .244 wOBA
and Milwaukee is trying to contend. Jack Wilson would at least be an upgrade defensively. I’d talk to them about a deal for some kind of prospect in which we eat some of Jack’s salary.
Yeah but did you see that cool catch Yuni made a few weeks ago?
by SMOAK and mirrors on May 16, 2011 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm not sure Wilson is better if his hitting is this anemic
At least Yuni might hit 10-15 homers if nothing else
He's probably at least 10 runs better than Yuni at defense
While maybe 5 runs worse with the bat. I think he’d be an upgrade for them, but not much of one, not enough for them to give up anything worthwhile.
There really isn't much to separate the two
Yuni’s updated ZiPS has him down for a .287 wOBA, Wilson’s for a .279. I’m assuming Wilson is better with the glove, but maybe he’s lost some range. The advanced stats take too long to become meaningful to tell for sure.
I figure if it didn’t cost them much money, just a minor-leaguer the Brewers might want to do it to keep their shiny new pitching staff from going nuts.
At this point, I really don't care if we get anything back for Wilson
I think the best we could hope for is a bit of salary relief, but I think getting Ackley to the show faster (as soon as he avoids Super Two status) is more important than trying to recoup part of a sunk cost
by seattlebruin on May 16, 2011 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Right, plus Ackley also bats left handed
I think we’re in violent agreement. I don’t think there’s any reason to think that we’ll get anything for Wilson – at the least, as long as he’s healthy he’s perfectly serviceable, just not a particularly useful piece for a struggling young team
by seattlebruin on May 16, 2011 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Then you'd be looking at Luis Rodriguez as our everyday SS next year
Unless Jack Z picks up a FA SS with inferior defensive skills to B. Ryan
Basically there’s no point in creating holes. Letting a contract expire is one thing, but just letting players go and sliding over aged injury-prone players seems like a Bavasi move.
by Mario Shawn Hayden Jr on May 16, 2011 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions
I guess it depends on how they feel about Nick Franklin
Do they hold him off until 2013 or do they try to contend next year with a rookie shortstop? On one hand, he hit shockingly well in a pitcher friendly league last year. On the other hand, that league is low-A level.
by Kouvre on May 16, 2011 12:47 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Franklin is currently hitting abysmally away from High Desert
I’m no expert on our minor league system but I think the chances of him starting next year are a robust 0%.
I am going to come into your house at night and rec up the place.
Yeah, I think Franklins best bet would top out at Tacoma next year. Mostly likely would spend most of the year at AA.
Which is fine. No need to rush him.
follow @casetines
by Kenneth Arthur on May 16, 2011 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah I saw that not long after posting
I guess we hope for Z to sign a decent SS to a 2-year deal this winter.
mmm yeah Ryan is a decent backup at least
Switching leagues is going to hurt his average a bit as well I suppose but damn, he look lost up there. Not quite Saunders lost but still pretty hard to watch. I wouldn’t mind seeing Rodriguez play a bit more but I don’t think I would be comfortable with him as the everyday shortstop.
Kyle Seager
Keith Goldstein gave Seager some positive attention today. Any chance that Saeger’s start is for real?
Do you mean Kevin Goldstein?
What positive attendtion did he give? Link?
It's a Casio on a plastic beach
by Roy Weaver Stuckey on May 16, 2011 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Nevermind Found it...
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13926
It's a Casio on a plastic beach
by Roy Weaver Stuckey on May 16, 2011 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions
So when is the Super Two deadline?
follow @casetines
by Kenneth Arthur on May 16, 2011 12:59 PM PDT reply actions
I believe there isn't one
It’s relative to other rookie players. From Wikipedia, a player is eligible for arbitration as a “Super Two” if he:
has at least two years of major league service but less than three, AND is among the top 17 percent for cumulative playing time in the majors in this class of players, AND was on an active major-league roster for at least 86 days in the previous season.
So the only way to be sure is not to bring him up until there are only 85 service days left. Otherwise it’s based on how many other players get brought up and how early.
The cutoff usually ends up happening by mid-June
Yeah there’s no set deadline, but the reality is that usually more than 17% of the eligibible rookie class will have been called up by June. Then you need to wait a little longer to make sure the player isn’t on the borderline to the point where they could become Super Two eligible later in the season when other rookies are sent back down and stop accumulating service time.
Having a bunch of guys with only a little service time would be a bad thing
top 20% get super two status. Adding Peguero and Wilson to the pile won’t help.
by Bearskin Rugburn on May 16, 2011 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Right
No set date that eliminates him from Super Two staus, so it’s just a best guess by the team. Typically, it’s been around the first week of June, or maybe the middle of June to be sure. With the way teams have been delaying promotion of players to avoid this, that date may be getting pushed back even further every year. Also, it may be something that changes with the next CBA, as the current one expires this off-season. I don’t know what ramifications it has for current players — maybe all moves made now are considered to be held under the current agreement? Or maybe things change when they hammer out a new CBA?
by nathaniel dawson on May 16, 2011 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions
Or I could have just reloaded the page first and saved myself the trouble of repeating what OlSalty said.
by nathaniel dawson on May 16, 2011 3:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Not if he got carpal tunnel.
M's fan in the Bay, soon to be LA SanFranPreps
by perfectstrat on May 16, 2011 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions
Everyone's got carpal tunnel.
...and now I'm here
The problem I have with Ackley's defense is that I haven't yet heard anybody say that he's been looking really sharp.
Prospects that come up to the big leagues and play at an average or better than average level are guys that scouts rave about, like “really solid with the glove” “ready to play defensively in the big leagues right now” “can really pick it”. What we’ve been hearing are phrases like “he’s been showing some improvement” “not a natural at the position, but is working hard at it” “good athlete, just has to get reps and learn the position”.
Damning with faint praise, basically. I’m certainly hopeful that he can be at least average at second, but I’m not feeling too optimistic about it right now. At some point, I’d like to hear someone rave about his defense. It would make me feel a lot better about his ability to be at least provide some positive value with his glove.
by nathaniel dawson on May 16, 2011 1:00 PM PDT reply actions
Another note: Ackley did play 1B in college
I imagine he’d be able to be a backup position for there as well if he were to be called up, thus making Adam Kennedy slightly less valuable than say, Luis Rodriguez.
His next position if 2B didn't work out would be the outfield. 1B was mostly because of Tommy John surgery.
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by Kenneth Arthur on May 16, 2011 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions
I think he was just suggesting that he could play it.
by Scruffy Lefty on May 16, 2011 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions
Correct.
I was stating if Smoak needs a day off, Ackley can move over then you can slot Kennedy / Rodriguez at 2nd.
by seiferguy on May 16, 2011 1:49 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
For sure, he's got experience there, he could handle it.
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by Kenneth Arthur on May 16, 2011 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions
CF?
From a defensive spectrum perspective, Ackley’s next best position would be center field. I haven’t read anyone’s evaluation of Ackley as an outfielder and how he would fit there. We don’t currently need a CF (well we soon won’t, hopefuly. RIGHT NOW we totally do. Man, I hope we don’t.) but it’s the place he’d be next-most valuable at.
One of the defensive knocks on him (at least last year) was his poor arm.
And that was when they were talking about his play at second base. I’d think that would move him to left field, especially with Guapo in center.
And an .800 OPS bat isn't all that interesting in left
It might work out if he exhibits plus range and ball-tracking skills, but he becomes just a good regular instead of a perennial all star at that point.
Ok, so .800 would be pretty good
An .800 OPS would have been 7th in baseball last year. So yeah, if he can run down fly balls at Safeco and hit like we think he can he’d still be pretty sweet.
Injury concerns?
He got moved from the outfield in college because of the TJ surgery. Granted, that’s well in the past now and plenty of pitchers come back from TJ as strong or stronger than before. But not all of them. And not many college outfielders need TJ surgery in the first place. So is there a risk (or more to the point, does the M’s medical staff think there’s a risk) that his repaired arm might not be up to throws from the outfield (which I presume are different in terms of stress from the more side-armed, shorter throws you make around the infield when fielding second base).
I would assume if anyone in the org was having second thoughts about him as a 2B, or even just entertaining the idea of adding flexibility by making him a back-up outfielder (ie so Saunders can get sent down despite a spotty-starting Guti), they’d be playing him in the OF in Tacoma from time to time. Or at least we’d be hearing about him shagging balls out there in BP or something.
I’d hate to see him be at the center of yet another problematic big league position switch.
Potentially, Ackley could back up at both CF and 1B.
But I doubt we’ll ever see that. If Ackley’s on the team, he’s there to be the secondbaseman. No point in making him your secondbaseman unless you’re going all in. I think they’d use other players in a back-up role before using Ackley there.
by nathaniel dawson on May 16, 2011 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, and like I was saying in my long fanpost.. 2B is the place he's going to be until the organization feels he'll really never develop good enough defense there. But he's going to have to play himself off of second and I think he'll have a long leash.
follow @casetines
by Kenneth Arthur on May 16, 2011 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions
If only he could also punt for the Seahawks.
Then he’d be someone to write home (or hilarious, skewering blog posts) about.
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