Anatomy Of A Blown Save
Tuesday night, the Mariners handed a 6-5 lead to Brandon League in the bottom of the 13th inning. League subsequently faced six batters and allowed hits to four of them, surrendering two runs and ending up with his second loss in his last two appearances. "You gotta be able to count on your closer," somebody probably said, "and League blew it."
League did blow it, in that he ended up with the blown save. And he was the guy on the mound when the Mariners suffered a devastating loss. But I think it's worth going through his inning batter by batter to examine just how poorly he really did.
Join me!
Facing Markakis to lead off, League worked the edges and got ahead 1-2 before throwing this pitch:
League threw a low split out of the zone, just as we always want him to, but Markakis is a good hitter who stayed with it, and he was able to reach out and pull a single to right field off the end of the bat.
League struck out Lee swinging on four pitches, the last one being a split low and in the zone.
With a man on and a man out, League started off with this pitch:
It was a 97mph first-pitch fastball on the inner black, and Fox broke his bat making contact. The contact was just sufficient to roll a groundball through the hole and into left field.
With two on and one out, League fell behind Pie 2-1, but then threw a 96mph tailing fastball over the outer edge of the zone. Pie rolled over on it, and this was the result:
Pie hit a groundball to second that easily could've gone for a game-ending double play, but Jack Wilson took the wrong approach and had the ball hop under his glove and roll into center for a run-scoring single.
As he did with Jake Fox, League gave Jones a hard fastball on the inner black under the hands to start off. Jones made contact with the ball, and this was the result:
The ball was hit right to Brendan Ryan at short, and the opportunity was there for Ryan to begin a 6-4-3 double play to send the game to the 14th, but for whatever reason Ryan couldn't field the ball cleanly, so he had to throw home instead. He got the runner, but instead of getting two outs, he only got one.
And finally, the game-winner, and perhaps League's worst at bat of the inning. It was a very brief at bat, but League threw a first-pitch 97mph fastball right at the top of the zone. Still, this was the result (the ball is at the top of the picture):
Wieters hit the ball, but he didn't hit the ball on a line, and it instead sailed over Ryan and into center field for something in between a line drive and a blooper. I believe we call that a "Figgins". It's worth considering that, while League presumably didn't mean to put that pitch where he did, Wieters probably didn't smash it because it was moving so much.
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So there we go. Six batters, four hits, and a blown save. Yet, of those hits, only one was the result of a bad process or pitch on League's part, while two were simple grounders and one was a flare off the end of the bat. Additionally, League generated a pair of potential double play balls that the middle infield couldn't turn.
Brandon League wound up with the blown save last night, but all it really goes to show is that even good relievers can get tagged with bad results from time to time, just based on bad luck alone. No, it wasn't the best that League's ever looked, but he pitched well, and he didn't deserve the outcome that he got.
You're free to have as little confidence in Brandon League as you want. Confidence is a subjective, individual thing. Just don't let League's appearance on Tuesday reduce your confidence any lower than it was before. The game was bad, but League was not.
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Comments
DON'T "OLE" THAT SHIT
jack wilson has to get his body in front of that ball knock it down and get an out should have been an error and not a blown save
by Hollywoodheffne on May 11, 2011 1:33 PM PDT reply actions
its my twitter handle and its too long
by Hollywoodheffne on May 11, 2011 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Ah I see.
A small word of advice. People on LL tend to appreciate proper capitalization and punctuation.
tought titty
said the kitty when the milk ran dry
by Hollywoodheffne on May 11, 2011 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions
No need to antagonize people when they politely offer advice
This site has some very basic standards for content, mostly for readability. Please punctuate and capitalize and everything will be peaches.
by Bearskin Rugburn on May 11, 2011 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, there was a string of comments that disappeared that Bearskin probably didn't see.
No need to keep piling on, folks. This sub-thread should probably be closed.
Oh my
yes, I missed the hidden comments
by Bearskin Rugburn on May 11, 2011 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Probably a wise choice for those of us on shared networks.
M's fan in the Bay, soon to be LA SanFranPreps
by perfectstrat on May 11, 2011 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions
Even though League got tagged with the blown save.
It never really felt like he blew the game. It was an annoying loss but so much stuff happened during the game that could’ve easily broke either way that I really couldn’t blame anyone or anything. I just want the next game to be played so we can move past this game.
by ThundaPC on May 11, 2011 1:45 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
I still hate him until he shows a permanent change in his pitch strategy
Though yeah, that wasn’t really his fault
Hasn't he been showing a significant change thus far, compared to 2011?
I am going to come into your house at night and rec up the place.
Fangraphs has his splitter rate back at its 2009 level!
by Jeff Sullivan on May 11, 2011 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions
And a sparkly 1.75 tRA!
M's fan in the Bay, soon to be LA SanFranPreps
by perfectstrat on May 11, 2011 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions
WHAT
is that tRA or tERA? Either way it’s phenomenal.
by Bearskin Rugburn on May 11, 2011 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions
I believe it, I just think he is too predictable sometimes
Like he seems to only throw the splitter when he gets ahead in counts, otherwise it’s a steady diet of fastballs. The change is he’s getting ahead in counts more often, so we’re seeing a few more splitters. I wonder if hitters might adjust though because he throws such a disproportionate number of first pitch fastballs. And his GB% is down so far, though small sample size applies and he’s still been a pretty good pitcher despite it. But walking fewer people is always good. Maybe I just hate his tattoos and the goofy hair and the look on his face.
The first-pitch thing would definitely be nice to see changed a little bit
78% first-pitch fastballs in 2009, 94% first-pitch fastballs in 2010, 94% first-pitch fastballs in 2011.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 11, 2011 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
That's frightening! Why doesn't someone tell him that they can see his fastball coming?
The Orioles ‘sat on it’ all inning (I use quotations because it was mostly first pitch swings) Wedge, or Olivo, or League himself have got to realize that. Do teams even scout themselves? Or would that be too smart
by JamMasterJesus on May 11, 2011 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions
It took three years to get through to Felix
by Poochie on May 11, 2011 3:49 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
According to Fangraphs his first pitch strike percentage (94% of which are sinking fastballs) is 50.8%, while league average is 58.9%.
Pretty much the same rate as 2010 too, and not as good as 2009. This might be why he pigeonholes himself into throwing lots of fastballs when he falls behind. His swinging strike rate is a little bit lower than last year (9.1% in 2011 10.6% in 2010), and still not really approaching the 14% of 2009 that he probably could get if he’d mix it up more and trust that the hitter will swing and miss at the splitter as a way of generating strikes as well as being a special pitch just to finish people off as he’s using it now, I think. He’s not bad, I probably shouldn’t hate him but he could be better, maybe great. He’ll also give up a homerun eventually, but we all know that.
I've wondered the same thing
There’s been a lot made of him not throwing his splitter as much as 2009, but if he’s not consistently getting ahead of hitters, he may not feel he can use a pitch that’s basically designed to drop out of the strike zone. He may need to trust it more, to start hitters off or even throwing it when behind in the count. Then again, maybe it wouldn’t be effective if he’s not ahead in the count.
by nathaniel dawson on May 12, 2011 4:25 PM PDT up reply actions

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