Series Preview: Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox
| MARINERS (11-15) | Δ Ms | RED SOX (11-13) | EDGE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HITTING (wOBA) | -7.3 (21st) | 5.9 | 3.3 (13th) | Boston |
| FIELDING (UZR) | 0 | - | 0 | |
| ROTATION (tRA) |
5.1 (7th) | 3.2 | -6.9 (24th) | Seattle |
| BULLPEN (tRA) |
1.8 (15th) | 1.8 | 4.2 (8th) | Boston |
| OVERALL(RAA) |
-0.5 (17th) | 10.9 | 0.6 (15th) | BOSTON |
A series later makes all the difference! The Mariners launched just four extra base hits in a four game set against Oakland and then went off in Detroit and smashed 12 in three games. It was a series that proved to be a tonic that was so badly needed by three of our biggest strugglers. Erik Bedard tossed a gem. Miguel Olivo homered twice which is also how many times he struck out. Okay, Miguel, I will accept your crazy swings from here on out so long as for each strikeout, you hit a home run. Even Chone Figgins had five hits, a walk and reached base twice via error.
Speaking of, the Mariners lead all of baseball in reaching base via error (RBOE). In fact, on an individual player basis, Jack Wilson leads with five. Behind him is a three-way tie of Chone Figgins, Milton Bradley and Marlon Byrd. In case you're ever wondering why there's a giant discrepancy between the wOBA that I list and the ones that FanGraphs lists, it's because FanGraphs does not include RBOE and I do, per Tango's formula.
The Mariners have grounded into the league's lowest number of double plays at just nine. The Cardinals have grounded into 35 and Albert Pujols alone has nine. By this one measure, the Mariners entire offense is as good as Albert Pujols is by himself, which sounds about right.
Fri 29 April 16:10 |
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| JASON VARGAS* | DAISUKE MATSUZAKA | |
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Daisuke Matsuzaka has a reputation for being a very slow pitcher. It is not an unearned reputation. Brad Penny belongs in that discussion now though. Still, Matsuzaka remains the title holder in this particularly death-worthy statistic and oh goody there's Clay Buchholz too! And never mind trying to get them out of the game because Daniel Bard checks in at 26 seconds between pitches and Jonathan Papelbon at a skin-crawling 31 seconds.
Jason Vargas averages 19 seconds between pitches. He's the second fastest among Mariner starters, behind Chirps at 18 seconds and just ahead of Maestro Felix's 20 seconds. The Mariners are throwing their three quickest working starters at the Red Sox who will respond in kind with three versions of the guy who cannot decide between the red or green curry at the mediocre Indian place on the corner. It's not like this is good stuff; just pick one you jackass!
Sat 30 April 16:10 |
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| DOUG FISTER | JOHN LACKEY | |
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Doug Fister's gameday photo is adorable looking and Fister himself has earned some rugged bonus points with his scruffy but not gross new beard. Meanwhile, John Lackey is still John Lackey*. On principle alone, every vibrating string in the multiverse** should be rooting on our side in this one.
*Don't look directly at it. Image best viewed through a shoe box lens like an eclipse.**
**This game brought you to cosmology! Gooooooo Science!
Sun 01 May 10:35 |
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| FELIX HERNANDEZ | CLAY BUCHHOLZ | |
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Clay Buchholz has never been one to throw many strikes or be stingy with the walks allowed, but he would get by with above average strikeouts. Thus far into 2011, Buchholz has seen his swinging strike rate drop two points and is now below average and he has just 15 strikeouts and 15 walks through 27 innings. Oh, and his ground ball rate has dipped below average as well.
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Comments
Ooh Pretty Colors
It's a Casio on a plastic beach
by Roy Weaver Stuckey on Apr 29, 2011 9:27 AM PDT reply actions
Winning 2 out of 3 would be just wonderful.
And I honestly feel like they could do it after that Detroit series, as irrational as that is.
by sanford_and_son on Apr 29, 2011 9:28 AM PDT reply actions
This man does not need a nicname.
Calling him “The Fist” seems gross and inappropriate. But If his name were Fist, and we called him “Fister,” that would seem even worse.
Can't we just stop coming up with nicknames already?
by ThundaPC on Apr 29, 2011 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yesterday I was wondering where all the nicknames went.
Now I see you are wholly to blame for their disappearances.
by LonelyintheBleachers on Apr 29, 2011 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions
I still want to call the days Fister starts "Fistmas".
I don’t care what urbandictionary.com says.
by FairWeatherFred on Apr 29, 2011 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions
These charts are a great
Do you have any made up for our bullpen? I know you can’t really use them for matchups like this, but it would be interesting to see them anyway.
wOBA
I think the discrepancy between Tango’s and Fangraph’s methods of wOBA calculation have mostly to do with the purposes you want to put them to. If you want a measure of the actual run value of events, then RBOE is almost exactly worth a single, so you include it. If you want a measure of player skill, leaving out RBOE may make more sense, since RBOE is probably not a repeatable skill. Of course, errors are a problematically subjective, and it’s not unreasonable to say reaching base is reaching base regardless of what the defense does, so the other way makes sense too.
For what it’s worth (not much), I prefer RE24 for actual run value of events on the field, and like team wOBA the way you do it. Does anyone know if Fangraphs includes RBOE as plate appearances when calculating wOBA? My preference would be to toss those out and calculate PA as BB + HBP + AB – RBOE. Since RBOE is a kind of odd reconstruction of the event, it might be better to assume we don’t really know what happened on those plays.
Forcing errors can be a skill, and often the border between a hit and a error can be murky so I am fine with giving the batter credit.
What are the factors that make a player better at forcing errors? Speed? Hard hit balls?
I have a hard time wrapping my head around the fact that it is actually a skill.
So is there a pretty good correlation between speed and an increased ability to force errors?
Do all speedy guys have an increased number of RBOE? Am I thinking about this too deeply?
I don't know if it's a tight 1:1 correlation
but I’m fairly certain that, in general, the faster a player is the more likely he is to RBOE.
Of course, you’d also need to normalize for GB/FB and all other kinds of stuff, but that’s the basic idea of why Tango uses it in his wOBA.
I'm not sure if this is a joke on how s l o w the Red Sox play baseball or if you're on the east coast.
by harkening on Apr 29, 2011 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Wasn't meant as a joke at all
East coast games start at 4:00 our time. “Normal” nine-inning games take roughly three hours. Red Sox play slowwwwwwwwww, so me getting home at 7:30 means I might have seen the last couple innings.
Didn’t really end up happening that way, though.

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