Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: NFL Players Ready To Welcome Gay Teammate

Series Preview: Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox

MARINERS (11-15) Δ Ms RED SOX (11-13) EDGE
HITTING (wOBA) -7.3 (21st) 5.9 3.3 (13th) Boston
FIELDING (UZR) 0 - 0
ROTATION (tRA)
5.1 (7th) 3.2 -6.9 (24th) Seattle
BULLPEN (tRA)
1.8 (15th) 1.8 4.2 (8th) Boston
OVERALL(RAA)
-0.5 (17th) 10.9 0.6 (15th) BOSTON

A series later makes all the difference! The Mariners launched just four extra base hits in a four game set against Oakland and then went off in Detroit and smashed 12 in three games. It was a series that proved to be a tonic that was so badly needed by three of our biggest strugglers. Erik Bedard tossed a gem. Miguel Olivo homered twice which is also how many times he struck out. Okay, Miguel, I will accept your crazy swings from here on out so long as for each strikeout, you hit a home run. Even Chone Figgins had five hits, a walk and reached base twice via error.

Speaking of, the Mariners lead all of baseball in reaching base via error (RBOE). In fact, on an individual player basis, Jack Wilson leads with five. Behind him is a three-way tie of Chone Figgins, Milton Bradley and Marlon Byrd. In case you're ever wondering why there's a giant discrepancy between the wOBA that I list and the ones that FanGraphs lists, it's because FanGraphs does not include RBOE and I do, per Tango's formula.

The Mariners have grounded into the league's lowest number of double plays at just nine. The Cardinals have grounded into 35 and Albert Pujols alone has nine. By this one measure, the Mariners entire offense is as good as Albert Pujols is by himself, which sounds about right.

Fri 29 April 16:10

JASON VARGAS* DAISUKE MATSUZAKA

Daisuke Matsuzaka has a reputation for being a very slow pitcher. It is not an unearned reputation. Brad Penny belongs in that discussion now though. Still, Matsuzaka remains the title holder in this particularly death-worthy statistic and oh goody there's Clay Buchholz too! And never mind trying to get them out of the game because Daniel Bard checks in at 26 seconds between pitches and Jonathan Papelbon at a skin-crawling 31 seconds.

Jason Vargas averages 19 seconds between pitches. He's the second fastest among Mariner starters, behind Chirps at 18 seconds and just ahead of Maestro Felix's 20 seconds. The Mariners are throwing their three quickest working starters at the Red Sox who will respond in kind with three versions of the guy who cannot decide between the red or green curry at the mediocre Indian place on the corner. It's not like this is good stuff; just pick one you jackass!

Sat 30 April 16:10

DOUG FISTER JOHN LACKEY

Doug Fister's gameday photo is adorable looking and Fister himself has earned some rugged bonus points with his scruffy but not gross new beard. Meanwhile, John Lackey is still John Lackey*. On principle alone, every vibrating string in the multiverse** should be rooting on our side in this one.

*Don't look directly at it. Image best viewed through a shoe box lens like an eclipse.**

**This game brought you to cosmology! Gooooooo Science!

Sun 01 May 10:35

FELIX HERNANDEZ CLAY BUCHHOLZ

Clay Buchholz has never been one to throw many strikes or be stingy with the walks allowed, but he would get by with above average strikeouts. Thus far into 2011, Buchholz has seen his swinging strike rate drop two points and is now below average and he has just 15 strikeouts and 15 walks through 27 innings. Oh, and his ground ball rate has dipped below average as well.

Comment 23 comments  |  2 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

Winning 2 out of 3 would be just wonderful.

And I honestly feel like they could do it after that Detroit series, as irrational as that is.

by sanford_and_son on Apr 29, 2011 9:28 AM PDT reply actions  

These charts are a great

Do you have any made up for our bullpen? I know you can’t really use them for matchups like this, but it would be interesting to see them anyway.

by Karma Police on Apr 29, 2011 9:50 AM PDT reply actions  

wOBA

I think the discrepancy between Tango’s and Fangraph’s methods of wOBA calculation have mostly to do with the purposes you want to put them to. If you want a measure of the actual run value of events, then RBOE is almost exactly worth a single, so you include it. If you want a measure of player skill, leaving out RBOE may make more sense, since RBOE is probably not a repeatable skill. Of course, errors are a problematically subjective, and it’s not unreasonable to say reaching base is reaching base regardless of what the defense does, so the other way makes sense too.

For what it’s worth (not much), I prefer RE24 for actual run value of events on the field, and like team wOBA the way you do it. Does anyone know if Fangraphs includes RBOE as plate appearances when calculating wOBA? My preference would be to toss those out and calculate PA as BB + HBP + AB – RBOE. Since RBOE is a kind of odd reconstruction of the event, it might be better to assume we don’t really know what happened on those plays.

by philosofool on Apr 29, 2011 11:49 AM PDT reply actions  

What are the factors that make a player better at forcing errors? Speed? Hard hit balls?

I have a hard time wrapping my head around the fact that it is actually a skill.

by Zwakamatsu on Apr 29, 2011 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

So is there a pretty good correlation between speed and an increased ability to force errors?

Do all speedy guys have an increased number of RBOE? Am I thinking about this too deeply?

by Zwakamatsu on Apr 29, 2011 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't know if it's a tight 1:1 correlation

but I’m fairly certain that, in general, the faster a player is the more likely he is to RBOE.

Of course, you’d also need to normalize for GB/FB and all other kinds of stuff, but that’s the basic idea of why Tango uses it in his wOBA.

by Andersean on Apr 29, 2011 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

I get home from work at 7:30

So at least this should mean I’ll get to see some of the games :)

by Aly Edge on Apr 29, 2011 12:07 PM PDT reply actions  

Wasn't meant as a joke at all

East coast games start at 4:00 our time. “Normal” nine-inning games take roughly three hours. Red Sox play slowwwwwwwwww, so me getting home at 7:30 means I might have seen the last couple innings.

Didn’t really end up happening that way, though.

by Aly Edge on May 2, 2011 11:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

By reading a game thread of your own volition you agree to accept all liability for any and all damage done to your delicate sensibilities.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Small
Starlin Castro's fit with Seattle
Kawasaki80_small
Lists! So many lists!
M_s_hat_copy_small
OT -- May 22nd In Memoriam
Ichiro_small
Why do managers and media members hate walks?
Wbc_029_small
Friday Morning Music Thread
Small
Dustin Ackley BP swing vs game swing
Beastquakerwallpaper_small
More on the Struggles of Smoak
Randy2_for_sbn_small
Albert Pujols 2012: Three Retrospectives
Small
On Batting Orders
Niehaus_small
More on Dustin Ackley and the strikezone

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

Yahoo_full_count

Sexy People

Wbc_029_small Jeff Sullivan

Small Matthew

Claw_small JY