The Five Biggest Early-Season Mariners Disappointments
by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 25, 2011 5:04 PM PDT
in Miscellaneous
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PrintThe Mariners have an off day today, so to fill the void, here's some negative content so that you can feel something like how you've felt on 15 other days already this month. Anything to feel normal again. These are presented in no particular order because nobody likes a stupid argument.
(1) Jack Cust
Go over to the Fangraphs hitter leaderboards, click on ISO, and sort in ascending order. There, above Paul Janish, above Juan Pierre, above Alcides Escobar and Ryan Theriot and Ronny Cedeno and Chris Getz, you'll find Jack Cust, the current owner of the lowest isolated slugging percentage in baseball. Cust was signed in the offseason to bring some established veteran power to the heart of the Mariners' order, and to this point he has rewarded us with as many home runs as has David Pauley. I wouldn't say the guy looks like toast, but that's only because people rarely look like toast*. He is playing like toast. Jack Cust is playing like toast would play.
* although toast often looks like people
(1) Josh Lueke
When it became clear that he was going to make the team, I was excited to see how well Lueke would perform against Major League competition. With his high-power fastball and potentially devastating secondary stuff, Lueke had all the makings of a relief ace. 6.1 innings and 18 baserunners later, he's back with Tacoma with shattered confidence and a fastball that's missing more ticks than a worried Lyme disease researcher. It isn't troubling that I don't know what's wrong with Josh Lueke. What's troubling is that nobody does.
(1) Chone Figgins
I guess it was my own fault for feeling optimistic. I don't know why I thought Figgins would bounce back during spring training. Maybe it had something to do with his return to third base, but why would that have any effect on his offense? So I blame myself for assuming Chone Figgins wouldn't suck. I also blame Chone Figgins for sucking. I know all about his luck numbers and I know he'll be better than this, but better than this isn't necessarily good, or anywhere close. I am so over this guy. Everybody is always over this guy unless they're lying down, but I am mentally over him, too.
(1) Franklin Gutierrez
It isn't Guti's fault that Guti has been a disappointment, but where months ago we thought we had an easy answer for his health problems, now we might have an answer or we might not, and that answer is a chronic and basically untreatable syndrome with which Guti would just have to live. If Guti does have IBS, I'm sure he wouldn't be the only baseball player playing through it, but it would make me wonder about his ceiling and dependability. Suffice to say that four-year contract hasn't started off as hoped. And, great, poop jokes.
(1) General team record
We knew the Mariners were unlikely to be much of a team this year, but we didn't think it would be too much to ask for them to kind of hang around in the race for the first few months before dropping out. Apparently it was too much to ask. The M's started out 2-0 and then proceeded to lose their next seven games, beginning the 2011 regular season with an almost immediate thud. Today is April 25th. Today is April 25th, and I haven't even daydreamed about the Mariners making the playoffs in about two weeks. I feel zero excitement about the team. I only feel excitement about individual players. It is way too early in the year for that to set in.
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Never did I imagine that Aaron Laffey and Jamey Wright
would have emerged from the pile to be the dependable middle relievers. This year blows
by Matthew on Apr 25, 2011 5:08 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Why is it that, so far, all of the Mariners who are playing well are regressing
but the players who aren’t playing well aren’t regressing?! Stupid baseball gods!
Unlisted: A terrible team eliminates any hope of consistent LL podcasting.
Not that I blame you, who would want to spend a long time talking about this team?
It's less about the terribleness of the team and more about we're busy
with often conflicting work schedules
And also a little about the terribleness of the team
by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 25, 2011 5:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Oh I agree Jeff works a lot and I appreciate it all
The question mark was attached to the schedule.
by Edgar for Pres on Apr 25, 2011 10:56 PM PDT up reply actions
The Mariners feel like a baseball gulag.
Free Scott Sizemore*!
*with purchase of a Scott Sizemore of equal or lesser value.
by 13194013 on Apr 25, 2011 5:11 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
(2) Erik Bedard
This comes after all the others because any rational human had to be dubious about the odds of Bedard having a lot of success this year. But the fact that he’s been healthy and still not getting good results is the disappointing part to me. I assumed he would be better than this as long as his arm was in good working order.
Disappointing without a doubt.
But not totally unexpected, given that so many pitchers are washed up after labrum injuries.
It probably shouldn't be.
It shouldn’t surprise anyone that a team that was bad last year and didn’t have any money to spend in the offseason would continue to be bad. If Pineda, Smoak and Ackley play well all season I wouldn’t expect Z to go anywhere.
If they have to fire Wedge they'd probably have to deep-six the whole Front Office.
There’s no way the organization is expecting anything other than work-in-progress results. They’ve basically gone out of their way to tell the fanbase to be patient. Being patient certainly doesn’t mean “over .500 or else.” They have no choice but to tough this season out.
I'm curious what people think firing some sort of staff member is going to accomplish.
Having wholly new regimes every year or two isn’t going to make the team any better.
by Mariner John on Apr 25, 2011 6:12 PM PDT up reply actions
Managers are fall guys.
That’s just how it works. It seems a little unfair, but it’s really an unwritten part of the job description. If the team sucks, the management reserves the right to fire the field manager to create an appearance of doing something.
However, I don’t think he’ll get fired. He was brought in to be a fiery foil to Wak and unless there are extensive reports of club house problems like last year, I think Wedge stays. In a way, firing Wedge this season would send message that he was a bad choice to begin with and be an admission of poor decision making for the FO.
Agreed, I think Figlet's defense has been the really disapointing part.
If Figgins was playing solid D I’d be much more forgiving of his difficulty getting the ball out of the infield.
While I'm biased because I already outlined why I thought a Chone Figgins trade made sense like last August
But the fact that they kept him around and watching him fail this year has made my distaste for him that much stronger, and (again, admittedly biased) the idea that the Mariners couldn’t see the logic I saw in trading him is upsetting. To me it seemed so obvious why it was a good idea, I have a hard time grasping what the FO was thinking, and that just makes his presence anger me that much more.
...and now I'm here
Your fanpost (fanshot?) has been on my mind for days and days and days
Still April and this season is interminable
It's one thing to think trading Figgins makes sense, it's another to have actually had an offer that made sense.
by Patrick Stites on Apr 25, 2011 7:45 PM PDT up reply actions
And did the M's ever get an inquiry from a team willing to take on that much?
by Patrick Stites on Apr 25, 2011 8:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Supposedly they were offered the chance to dump the contract on Atlanta altogether.
So yeah, all signs indicate that they were offered a chance to dump the vast majority of his contract and opted not to pursue it.
...and now I'm here
Great.
I’m literally angry with rage. Thanks.
by Smegmalicious on Apr 25, 2011 8:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Ehhh
I can understand their hesitancy to trade him last July when everyone was assuming it was a slump, because they were probably assuming it was a slump too and it wouldn’t make sense to dump him at a temporary low point for reduced value. Obviously, history hasn’t borne that out but I think to evaluate the non-move there you have to appreciate the context of the time.
by OlSalty on Apr 25, 2011 8:15 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
On a performance level I can too.
On an “is this good for the team’s long term potential” level it still baffled me. But as I said before I admit I’m biased because this made … I don’t know, maybe too much sense to me? I’m having a hard time seeing how the team could see anything otherwise. But whatever. Time passes. If the Oakland trade offer ever gets confirmed, however, then that’s all on GMZ.
...and now I'm here
The bottom line is we're stuck with an expensive vortex of suck for 3 more years
by Smegmalicious on Apr 25, 2011 8:25 PM PDT up reply actions
I meant this year and two more.
We’re not that far in.
Really at this point I just want him to never touch Ichiro.
by Smegmalicious on Apr 25, 2011 8:33 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't see the part where it says the whole contract, MLBTR was saying Atlanta would want significant salary relief.
by Patrick Stites on Apr 25, 2011 8:23 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, it varied in its reports. The one that uses the most concrete language is here:
By now, most of you know that Atlanta Braves third baseman Chipper Jones is out for the season. We discussed, prior to the trade deadline, how the Braves had approached the Mariners about dealing for Chone Figgins. I’ve since been told the Braves viewed Figgins as a player worth $6 million per season, not the $9 million per year guy the M’s made him. So, at the time, had it gotten that far, that’s what Atlanta was prepared to eat on the contract, maybe throwing in a player with a pulse.
I think there’s a serious argument to be made that even that would have been worthwhile. Again, you add in various rumors about the A’s which I can’t remember if they were confirmed, along with several reports (maybe posturing?) that they really wanted to see what he could do this year and it’s indicated, although not necessarily confirmed, that they could have gotten rid of him.
...and now I'm here
I wonder if teams are even offering that by now
He’s not even really close to the player he was billed as when he signed that deal and teams could probably get equivalent production from multiple other places for far cheaper. I just get the sick feeling we are going to end up stuck with him or will have to make another problem contract swap ultimately.
I highly doubt they are offering anything.
Most teams probably thought he’d bounce back, just like the projections did. And the reality is that if he did bounce back he’d make sense for a lot of teams, just not us. But by now I’d be floored if a team was even offering half his salary.
...and now I'm here
Why would anyone want him at all for any price?
He can’t hit, he sucks in the field, he has no power and he seems like a total ass on a personal level.
by Smegmalicious on Apr 25, 2011 8:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, despite his awfulness he's managed to succeed with roughly the same skillset he has now.
He’s not really that different than a few years ago, which is why most people are scratching their heads at his performance and willing to accept the idea that he may simply be in an extended period of bad luck. Still, yes, he does blow.
...and now I'm here
If only
Omar Minaya was still Mets GM and the Wilpons weren’t being sued for every dime they have, because that sounds like Luis Castillo even before his 4-year deal was inked. Well, the personality thing I’m not sure but he probably came with it.
Cust is this bad once a year
Every April…
Cust HR and SLG /month (career)
April: 3/275
May: 20/500
June 18/443
July 19/480
.Aug 22/443
Sept 20/456
by cohnnd on Apr 25, 2011 5:29 PM PDT reply actions 7 recs
Literally no one has mentioned this.
Crazy. I love seeing that.
On the other hand, if you look at Cust's splits:
Career vs. RHP: .249/.384/.471
2011 vs. RHP: .143/.280/.167
Career vs. LHP: .225/.353/.364
2011 vs. LHP: .214/.389/.214
If you want to go just by his monthly splits, let’s focus on a full slash line:
Mar/April career: .201/.373/.275
Mar/April 2011: .171/.326/.186
His batted ball profile is also way down:
LD%/GB%/FB% Mar/April career: 18.9%/44.7%/36.4%
LD%/GB%/FB% Mar/April 2011: 15.6%/55.6%/28.9%
Also, Mar/April splits are a really small sample size for Cust. Of his 2397 career PA, only 260 have come in Mar/April. He only played in those months in 2008 and 2009 (well, he got one Mar/April PA in 2004).
In 2008, he had 91 PA, in 2009 he had 82 PA. To date, we’ve given him 86 PA. And his triple-slash is down from even his Mar/April career numbers; his batted ball profile is atrocious with a signifcant spike in ground balls even, a drop in flyballs (which is where we’d hope to get DINGERS!) and even a small drop in line drive rate. He’s not hitting the ball hard; he’s not squaring up. His swing rate and contact rate are right in line with career norms, but his entire triple slash is off. It takes a little longer than we’ve currently given him for batted ball data to stabilize (about 60 more plate appearances), but given the massive change overall, does anyone find this encouraging?
See also Jeff’s commentary on his spray chart last week. Jack Cust is done. To quote Jeff: “We have a declining 32-year-old born with old player skills who just visually looks like he’s toast.” We have data that makes it seem like he’s done, too. I’m done with the Jack Cust experiment.
by harkening on Apr 25, 2011 8:16 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
As a follow up:
It’s a gag here that Jack Cust does one thing well (walk), but with his fifty points off his career OBP and a batted ball profile that doesn’t encourage an improved BABIP…augh.
Fewer PAs in April than any other month
in his career. He only has 260 career April plate appearances. That’s about 70% of his next lowest month (May) and 50% of his highest month (August). Although maybe he just hates the cold.
Miguel Olivo has a wRC+ of 7.
However, there is some light at the end of the tunnel. $13.3 million worth of Milton Bradley goes away, $5.5 m of Silva goes away, $5 m of Jack Wilson goes off to squat in a pasture upstate somewhere, $1 m to Yuni falls off the map, and presumably Aardsma and his ever-increasing arbitration figures will be traded elsewhere. Of course the list of potential free agents is anything but exciting, but that’s a problem to deal with later.
What's amazing is that I've seen more signs of life from Olivo's bat than Cust's!
by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 25, 2011 5:36 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
He's been robbed of two doubles at least.
That’s something
This reminds me of Kotchman at some point last year when we tried justifying him being horrible.
by Edgar for Pres on Apr 25, 2011 5:54 PM PDT up reply actions
I guess the only consolation is that Kotchman was at 1B and Olivo is at catcher
by Shmelix Shmernandez on Apr 25, 2011 6:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Except that Kotch hadn't done shit but once in all his years and refused to follow hitting advice to change his swing.
The patience for Casey Kotchman was gone the moment he started beating the ball into the ground regularly… again.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Apr 25, 2011 8:30 PM PDT up reply actions
How long
before the Marlins become the latest victim of Kotch-rot. to ditch him?
Depends when they trade with the Rays to acquire him.
I am going to come into your house at night and rec up the place.
by HititHere on Apr 26, 2011 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Eh he's facing 2010 Jose Lopez treatment with respect to balls in the strike zone and, just as the lovable Choloafie did,
he is accommodating pitchers by just swinging at the crap out of the zone too. At least we can see he still has power, but man does he reek of Lopez. Go ahead Miguel and prove me wrong you big idiot.
We can stop all this "Prince Michael" nickname nonsense. It doesn't sound right.
But what DOES sound right is: Prince Fielder
by SeahawksPhan on Apr 25, 2011 5:36 PM PDT up reply actions
If you want to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in a DH with old-player skills then sure.
Not that I even hate the idea, given how desperate I am for a legitimate hitter.
8 yrs, $200 Million is Boras' starting point.
M's fan in the Bay, soon to be LA SanFranPreps
by perfectstrat on Apr 25, 2011 7:42 PM PDT up reply actions
Ridiculous.
Boras is in for a disappointment. Who’s going to pay that much money? A shrewd organization like Seattle or Toronto? The MLB-controlled Dodgers? A Cubs team who is already attached to one albatross contract and really needs to rebuild?
I'm pretty sure it's just posturing.
But with Boras you can never be sure. If I were to project a contract for Fielder, I’d say someone is going to overpay for 7 years, $140M. I don’t even care if that’s us, because we’d have 2 or 3 above-average hitters.
I don’t even care if that’s us, because we’d have 2 or 3 above-average hitters.
I’m going to regret saying this.
M's fan in the Bay, soon to be LA SanFranPreps
by perfectstrat on Apr 25, 2011 8:35 PM PDT up reply actions
I would happily give him that contract.
I’m tired of having a terrible offense.
Bradley wouldn't be terrible if he wasn't so overpaid
by seattlebruin on Apr 25, 2011 5:40 PM PDT up reply actions
He's an average defender over his career in the OF.
In his last two full-ish seasons (2006, 2009), he was +13/150 and -6/150. There’s not any reason to pan his defense or suppose he’s in the camp of Adam Dunn fielders.
by philosofool on Apr 26, 2011 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions
His 2006 numbers were before he hurt his knee
In his time as a Mariner he has certainly not past the eye test in LF
Time to start talking about
who we’ll take at number 2!
Unless he means in 2011
In which case, the Pirates are making that decision for us anyway.
Yes, sorry I mean't 2011.
Who do we not want the Pirates to take?
I'm warming up to the idea of Cole.
But I’m fine with either of the Rendon/Cole options.
by the other side on Apr 25, 2011 6:36 PM PDT up reply actions
We should be good either way (assuming Rendon doesn't get hurt again).
I’m kind of tantalized by the possibility of Felix, Pineda, and Cole 1-2-3 though…
I'd rather have a lefty in the mix.
While all three are good and we should no doubt take Cole if the Pirates don’t, I think we need some balance in the rotation.
M's fan in the Bay, soon to be LA SanFranPreps
by perfectstrat on Apr 25, 2011 7:43 PM PDT up reply actions
Not really.
Awesome is awesome. Right handed pitchers who are awesome can generally get those pesky lefties out, too (and vice versa).
In some cases, having a mediocre lefty pitcher might shut down a lefty heavy lineup easier, but having a lefty just for the sake of having a lefty over a superior righty is just stupid.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Apr 25, 2011 8:34 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm more afraid of seeing 24 left-handed batters in a Felix-Pineda-Cole rotation.
And saying, “that team is so annoying.”
I’m not quite sure why I want balance in the rotation. Maybe I like mixing things up a bit. Who knows. But given equally awesome pitchers, I’d rather have a lefty with the situation we already had.
Man, Cliff Lee would’ve been awesome. =(
M's fan in the Bay, soon to be LA SanFranPreps
by perfectstrat on Apr 25, 2011 8:39 PM PDT up reply actions
You have bypassed
drafting best player available, drafting by positional need and gone straight to throws with left hand for a drafting strategy.
by Edgar for Pres on Apr 25, 2011 9:57 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
I don't think I have
we should no doubt take Cole if the Pirates don’t,
Cole/Rendon is the best player available, and the Pirates will take one of them. I was also talking solely about the rotation, and never in respect to drafting, so I’m not sure where you got positional need. I went on to say:
given equally awesome pitchers, I’d rather have a lefty with the situation we already had.
So let me reiterate. Ceteris Paribus, I’ll take a lefty at the top of the rotation.
M's fan in the Bay, soon to be LA SanFranPreps
by perfectstrat on Apr 25, 2011 11:53 PM PDT up reply actions
By the way, what has triggered all the Prince Fielder talk?
was there some article I missed over the holiday?
PUJOLS HERE WE COME
M's fan in the Bay, soon to be LA SanFranPreps
by perfectstrat on Apr 25, 2011 7:44 PM PDT up reply actions
He's going to re-sign with the Cardinals sometime this season, and they will give up a boatload of money.
Unfortunately. Not like he’d want to play for the Mariners anyways.
2011 Safeco Field Record: 0-0 ; Overall Safeco Field Record: 12-5
I don't doubt that.
But there will be a crapton of (likely false) rumors flurrying around that every team from Texas to the Royals are pursuing Pujols.
M's fan in the Bay, soon to be LA SanFranPreps
by perfectstrat on Apr 25, 2011 8:42 PM PDT up reply actions
I doubt that, regardless of what Albert says
all this stuff about waiting in order to not be a distraction is pure B.S. in my opinion.
I think the reason he is waiting is so he can test the market in November in order to scare the Cardinals into paying him more than what they are currently offering.
I think its mostly due to the Ms lack of dingers.
There was however an article on espn.com about how much Fielder likes playing defense. I’m not sure how much stock I put in that, but it may indicate that he wouldn’t be receptive to the idea of becoming a DH before he turns 30.
Just because he likes it doesn't mean he should get to.
I like eating waffles, but nobody is going to pay me millions of dollars to eat waffles. Especially when there are so many superior waffle eaters out there.
I am going to come into your house at night and rec up the place.
I know on the radio...
Brock and Salk brought it up to Z in an interview.
The Ryan Braun extension.
I mean everyone assumed that they wouldn’t resign Prince, but with that contract there’s NO WAY they are going to.
People have been linking him to the Mariners since last year
To improve, they should try to become the musical southern cal of the west. - bRuins Nation poster on the Stanford band.
Just more "Jack Z is connected with the Brewers" bologna.
Gets done quite often as a basis for rumormongering, even if there’s absolutely no tangible reason to believe something like that would happen.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Apr 25, 2011 8:36 PM PDT up reply actions
What would they do
DH him? 1b seems covered.
Tangent on Lyme disease,
One of the more disappointing House episodes is where he is treating a kid and dismisses Lyme Disease because the patient doesn’t have a circular rash present. Finally Thirteen finds in on his scalp or something and it turns out to be the right diagnosis. But in real life only about 60% of Lyme Disease patients have the rash, it would be ridiculous for him to rely that much on the rash. End of weird side note.
College athletics are corrupt and I suspect wrestling may be scripted
I think an episode of Scrubs had that exact reasoning.
They were banging their heads against the wall trying to figure out what was wrong with this guy since they couldn’t find a bit mark until Cox remembered interns are morons and shaved the guys head and found it.
Dawg! He put da team on his back!
I was really dissapointed to hear that Guti was diagnosed with IBS
It might not necessarily be the case, but IBS is sometimes given as diagnosis when they can’t pinpoint what’s causing a patient’s stomach problems. Hopefully his issues can be resolved soon.
I think I hate Figgins more now than when he played for the Angels.
And this isn’t the first time I’ve felt that way about an ex-Angel playing for the Mariners. I think we need to stop signing Angels.
I think it's early to put the nails in Cust's coffin.
These are small samples. I don’t think he was ever going to be good. He was projected to be a ~.340 wOBA hitter by most systems, which is passable for a DH. ZIPs RoS is .338. He has a career .335 BABIP, but is hitting .267 on balls in play right now. His GB% is way above career norms. He’s batted just 13 FBs. GB% is not a stat that you expect to be stable over less than 300PA.
In some regards, I like what I’m seeing way below the surface. He’s swinging at fewer out of zone pitches than in recent seasons. Since he’s about the worst contact hitter in baseball not named “Mark Reynolds” or “Ryan Howard,” I’m pleased by this.
I’m not running out to declare a resurgence of 2007 Jack Cust. No one is. But I think it’s too easy to decide his power is gone.
"GB% is not a stat that you expect to be stable over less than 300PA."
And yet it seems to be. We can quibble with the definition of “stable” and point out that Cust’s still shy of 200 or 300 PAs, but it stabilizes relatively quickly.
Swinging at pitches out of the strike zone has never been Cust’s problem. His selectivity is what helps him draw a lot of walks (and it may push up his Ks too, as he takes pitches on the black). But we’re now in year 2 of the new, enervated Jack Cust. He survived last year on BABIP and thus, weirdly, batting average, but the M’s acquired him in large part because they thought his ISO would rebound. It hasn’t, and the GB percentage is one reason why. You may be right that a year and a month is too soon to say definitively that his power’s gone, but realistically, how much more time are you willing to give him?
I misremembered this very study.
And thanks for linking it; I thought it perished with Stat Speak.
Anyway, I don’t think it changes the point much. You should be weighing your prior expectations more than twice as much as your in season observations at this point, so I think we can rule out getting too antsy about his batted ball results.
Remember Griffey? He looked an awful lot like this too.
While Cust is more likely to rebound than Griffey was, they haven’t looked all that dissimilar once their bats left their shoulders.
I don't recall it that way at all.
And their contact rates and batted ball results are completely different, so I think you’re misremembering.
Texas Toast?
French Toast? Or just kinda stale cold toast left, half eaten, left on the counter since breakfast?
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