Down in the Dumps: The M's DH Dilemma

by perfectstrat on Apr 21, 2011 3:50 PM PDT

All this talk about Jack Cust has inspired me to take a look into the past of Mariner DHs. I've really only been following the Mariners closely for five years; I was too young to care much and not very knowledgeable then anyway. You could say it was my 13-year-old phase. But since I've started to care, I can't remember a single good DH we had. My mind has yet to see a Mariner DH with any sort of life in his bat.

Mariners Baseball: Where Designated Hitters Come to Die

For the team to consistently fail at the position that requires a player to simply hit and not give a crap about anything else really frustrates me. Not only is it painful to watch, it illustrates and heavily contributes to the futility of the recent Mariner offense.

So just how bad have the DHs been? I looked at the data for the last five years, and here's what I came up with, year by year (warning: tables of data to follow):

Name	G	PA	wOBA	wRC+	WAR
Russell Branyan	57	238	0.347	119	0.9
Mike Sweeney	30	110	0.354	124	0.5
Milton Bradley	73	278	0.289	80	-0.1
Ken Griffey Jr.	33	108	0.214	29	-0.8

Table I: Mariner DH Performance in 2010, min. 50 PA

The DHilemma from last year is pretty fresh in our minds still. Sweeney had a surprisingly good year, while Bradley was bad and Griffey was predictably dreadful. Hooray Russell Branyan. Trust me, that's gonna be your last hooray in a while... Season Production: 0.5 WAR

Name	G	PA	wOBA	wRC+	WAR
Mike Sweeney	74	266	0.336	104	0.3
Ken Griffey Jr.	117	454	0.323	96	0.3

Table II: Mariner DH Performance in 2009, min. 50 PA

Sweeney and Griffey combine to hit better than most Mariners, but that's not saying anything. While it's encouraging to see a couple league average bats at the DH slot, and definitely nice to see Griffey again, you have to take into account that they platooned, thus giving them advantages. Too see a league average bat out of the DH slot is a minor letdown, but to see a league average bat after platoon splits is disappointing. Season Production: 0.6 WAR

Name	G	PA	wOBA	wRC+	WAR
Tug Hulett	30	56	0.283	72	-0.1
Jeff Clement	66	224	0.289	76	-0.1
Jose Vidro	85	330	0.268	61	-1.2

Table III: Mariner DH Performance in 2008, min. 50 PA

In an exhibition of absolute despair, Jose Vidro leads the charge with his 61 wRC+. He perfectly embodied this season. It's difficult to remember this performance; not that it's hard to call to mind what happened, but more that I throw up a little inside and have to sit down for five minutes to clear my head. This was also Jeff Clement's best sizeable performance in the majors, which tells you something about his career arc. Season Performance: -1.4 WAR

Name	G	PA	wOBA	wRC+	WAR
Jose Vidro	147	625	0.344	110	1.1

Table IV: Mariner DH Performance in 2007, min. 50 PA

When you look at how Vidro performed this season, it's easier to understand why he was given the job again in 2008. It's also a miracle that he posted an above average wOBA with a .080 ISO. Jose Vidro is the best Mariners DH of the last five years. Read that again. You'll find me at the bottom of the nearest well. Season Performance: 1.1 WAR

Name	G	PA	wOBA	wRC+	WAR
Ben Broussard	56	177	0.301	80	-0.5
Eduardo Perez	43	102	0.245	44	-0.7
Carl Everett	92	343	0.284	69	-0.9

Table V: You can't even call this performance

There are so many things wrong here that I don't even know where to begin. Everyone hates Broussard for not only his dismal performance, but also what he cost the organization to acquire. The latter isn't his fault at all, but it's hard to see a better way to represent the approach and performance of the previous administration. Eduardo Perez also came over in a trade from the Indians. He OPS'd .979 with the Indians, and coming to Seattle that dropped to .545. Carl Everett blows. Season Production: -2.3 WAR

Total 5-year Production: -1.5 WAR

Is Cust the person to finally break this trend? I doubt it. How do we solve this problem? Please don't turn this into a Prince Fielder thread.

All data in this post courtesy of Fangraphs. You can also see their depressing WAR Grid here. Keep in mind Russell Branyan's performance is primarily from 1B, though he qualifies as a DH for some reason.

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Comments

Edgar Martinez.

I heard he was pretty good as Mariners DH once upon a time. Of course, all we have to go by now is grainy old VHS reel footage with some bygone dinosaur narrating.

by Greg Pirkl Lives on Apr 21, 2011 4:21 PM PDT reply actions

Carl Everette doesn't believe in this tape.

"I can't recommend highly enough going back and watching old clips of Jose Lopez." -Jeff Sullivan

by joof on Apr 21, 2011 5:00 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs

Mmmmm

You know I loves me some alliteration

by Robby The Kid on Apr 21, 2011 5:34 PM PDT reply actions

I think we're at least heading in the right direction, even if Cust doesn't work out.

Cust was actually brought in strictly to hit.

Beforehand, Carl Everett was brought in to “add fire and passion” to the clubhouse. Jose Vidro was brought in to “add offensive production.” Griffey was brought in to “clean up the Clubhouse/return to the team.” Makes me think we’ll get someone who’ll hit eventually.

by ThundaPC on Apr 21, 2011 7:09 PM PDT reply actions

Fun Fact about the above players...

Is that only Sweeney and Everett had spent significant time at DH before coming to Seattle. DH’ing isn’t “simply hit and not give a crap about anything else”; you have to be prepared pinch hit 5 times a game, and even the stats back up that pinch hitting is extremely difficult.

In short, we need to find someone who can develop into a full-time Designated Hitter, not just a warm body. Cust fits this mold, Branyan did but his spine was made of jelly.

by Rougtan on Apr 21, 2011 8:32 PM PDT reply actions

There are people out there who don't remember Edgar.

Fuck you making me feel old now.

Field Gulls

by Benne on Apr 21, 2011 10:02 PM PDT reply actions

No shit...

I am not even thirty and I feel like I watched him for many years, well, I guess it was a decade or so. I love talking Edgar because I was at his last game, and the kick-butt ceremony the night before.

I have a cousin with 1 testicle, when they yell play ball, he smiles.

by Montucky on Apr 21, 2011 10:32 PM PDT up reply actions

. W

I have a cousin with 1 testicle, when they yell play ball, he smiles.

by Montucky on Apr 21, 2011 10:33 PM PDT up reply actions

I still remember Gorman Thomas.

No matter where you go, there you are.

by KC Mariner on Apr 22, 2011 6:15 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Ugh

What about Balboni … was he a DH? I remember that fat piece of crap.

I feel like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football. Ugh

by HitKing69 on Apr 24, 2011 8:32 PM PDT up reply actions

He split time between DH and 1B with the Mariners.

He’s still the Royals’ single season home run record holder!

No matter where you go, there you are.

by KC Mariner on Apr 27, 2011 7:18 AM PDT up reply actions

Strange seeing this post...

considering I learned that DH’s and 1B-man are the easiest positions to fill from this site. I believed you guys then and basically believe the same now, it just hasn’t materialized. So many wasted ABs when you think back. I am wondering about an Edgar curse as mentioned above.

I have a cousin with 1 testicle, when they yell play ball, he smiles.

by Montucky on Apr 21, 2011 10:26 PM PDT reply actions

That"s why it's so frustrating.

Those spots SHOULD be easy to fill. Everything we know tells us that. Most teams don’t have much difficulty finding players to take on those roles. But for some strange reason, the Mariners haven’t been able to, year in and year out.

by nemo1 on Apr 22, 2011 5:13 PM PDT up reply actions

League average is actually 2.0 WAR for a position player

0 WAR is just replacement level and well below average.

by Patrick Martin on Apr 21, 2011 11:14 PM PDT reply actions

League average bat.

100 wRC+ is league average.

M's fan in the Bay, soon to be LA SanFranPreps

by perfectstrat on Apr 21, 2011 11:55 PM PDT up reply actions

Which isn't good from the DH position, but rare to find on a Mariner not named Ichiro.

M's fan in the Bay, soon to be LA SanFranPreps

by perfectstrat on Apr 21, 2011 11:55 PM PDT up reply actions

A league average bat is a replacement level DH.

"I can't recommend highly enough going back and watching old clips of Jose Lopez." -Jeff Sullivan

by joof on Apr 22, 2011 1:16 AM PDT up reply actions

I think it's the Safeco curse more than anything.

Why would a slugger want to come to Safeco? Safeco is going to rob them of the ability to put up big numbers and snag a good contract down the line.

by Shmelix Shmernandez on Apr 22, 2011 1:16 PM PDT reply actions

It's not a curse as curses don't exist

it’s carvernous LF dimensions, which do exist.

by pdb on Apr 22, 2011 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions

Aha! Since you claim that curses don't exist then the burden of proof is on you!

by Kermit. on Apr 22, 2011 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs

CURSE YOU

oh wait

by pdb on Apr 22, 2011 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs

Owned, so very very owned right now

The tactic of Burden of Proof is inviolate!

by Kermit. on Apr 22, 2011 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions

Tomorrow when you get smallpox and the plague you'll know what "burden of proof" really means

either that or this voodoo doll was a waste of money.

by pdb on Apr 22, 2011 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions

May the bird of paradise fly up your nose!

by Kermit. on Apr 22, 2011 2:51 PM PDT up reply actions 4 recs

Curses do exist.

Fuck.

See?

by nemo1 on Apr 22, 2011 5:14 PM PDT up reply actions

Just musing here, but....

does the sustained lack of a consistent adequate production from the DH spot in Seattle post Edgar in any way further his HoF chances, even with just a very few voters (which could make a difference)?

In his day, there were several very good/great long term DH’s but it seems there are fewer “true DH” types now, and his numbers in Seattle are looking better and better post career as each year passes by and we continue to have a complete inability to find any long term productive hitters, be it at the DH or even a field position.

What if we simply took the highest ceiling players, who fit ANY system, and worked out the details later? If we do go that route, there’s no way you can convince me Ponder is a good choice in the 1st round.

by Tyler Jorgensen on Apr 23, 2011 1:28 AM PDT reply actions

On the subject of cavernous dimensions, should the M's start to seriously consider moving the fences in?

I’m just theorizing here, but since Safeco’s power suppression is so well-known now, maybe it is getting into our player’s heads. Maybe they are trying to swing too hard, change their swing mechanics, or what-have-you. When it is a team-wide effect you get what we’ve witnessed the last few years.

Opponents don’t worry about the Safeco effect much because they are only in town a few days. They take their hacks then move on.

How long will the team put up with the sluggish offense and falling attendance levels? How patient will the ownership be about “another rebuilding year?” What can the team do to lure better hitters here in the future?

Basically, I’m suggesting that having an extreme pitcher’s park isn’t a luxury the team can afford anymore.

by Jaejo on Apr 25, 2011 10:25 PM PDT reply actions

Would you then change the dimensions of the park every time offensive output rates change over time?

by pdb on Apr 26, 2011 6:53 AM PDT up reply actions

I see what you are hinting at, and I also realize we've had some very recent winning seasons at home.

I’m certainly overreacting a little bit. No, I wouldn’t change the dimensions that easily. These guys are professionals after all, they’re expected to succeed regardless of how big the field is.

The current philosophy of run prevention was creative, and could still produce a winning team some day, but the DH position still needs to be covered somehow. These guys are brought in to hit. Safeco itself limits the number of players we can even consider for the role. Making the park friendlier would be more attractive to FA’s and widen the team’s options in the long run.

Note that I’m not saying to turn it into a hitter’s paradise. I’d change the dimensions of the park to make it closer to neutral.

What I’m thinking is: at the mid section of the short wall segment in Left center, move that to a point about 6-8 feet in. Then, at the wall at middle of the Mariner bullpen and approximately in front of the middle of Section 192, start the angles so they come together at that point.

At least, that’s what I would do. I really have no idea how that would affect things overall without getting years of data.

by Jaejo on Apr 26, 2011 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions

Broadening appeal to free agents is a defensible plan.

That is, provided you accept certain premises, such as:

1. Seattle is a moderately unattractive market for players who are interested in endorsement contracts, nightlife, cultural diversity, and/or national media exposure.
2. Seattle’s stature as a moderately unattractive market negatively affects its ability to sign those free agents who are motivated by the things detailed in #1.
3. While it’s possible to succeed without signing players from that class of free agent, the Mariners would have more opportunities to succeed if they could draw on a wider range of potential signees.

All three premises are debatable, but likewise all three can be defended. And if you accept the three premises, then you can also make a defensible argument that Safeco should be modified to lessen its growing reputation as a career graveyard for professional hitters who are not named Ichiro.

It’s not a slam-dunk strategy by any means, but it’s a reasonable premise.

"Here's to alcohol: the cause of, and answer to, all of life's problems."
-- Homer Simpson

by zagreusmd on Apr 27, 2011 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions

It's a bit funny

In theory a DH is the easiest spot to fill, but in reality players are very reluctant to be pushed into that role and you end up having to pick through the Custs and Matsuis of the league to get anywhere near league average production.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Apr 28, 2011 8:34 AM PDT reply actions

That, and many players who were really good hitters in their prime but can now only fill a DH slot choose to walk away rather than accept a salary much less than they are accustomed to.

Perhaps they think they are still worth more to a team, or they just decide that the money’s not worth it. There’s seemingly a few players a year that could fill a DH role, but for whatever reason, end up not signing with anybody.

by nathaniel dawson on Apr 28, 2011 2:38 PM PDT up reply actions