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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

Series Preview: Oakland Athletics @ Seattle Mariners

MARINERS (6-13) Δ Ms ATHLETICS (9-9) EDGE
HITTING (wOBA)
-14.0 (26th) 4.5 -10.5 (22nd) Oakland
FIELDING (UZR) 0 - 0
ROTATION (tRA)
4.8 (9th) -1.4 18.5 (2nd) Oakland
BULLPEN (tRA)
1.1 (16th) 0.4 -1.0 (19th) Seattle
OVERALL(RAA)
-8.1 (19th) 3.6 7.0 (9th) OAKLAND

Josh Lueke seems broken. The troubling lack of zip on the fastball is a warning flag, but that honestly could have any number* of causes and some of those are minor and no cause for alarm. What worries me more is the horrific control and so far (small sample) dearth of ground balls. Lueke profiled as a high-strikeout, low-walk, medium-ground ball guy and so far he's been average-strikeout, high-walk, low-ground ball. It's a toss-up between Lueke and Erik Bedard for biggest pitching disappointment this season.

*Except four. It does not have four causes. Three? Sure. Five? It's a possibility. But not four.

Speaking of disappointments, Jack Cust went to the plate 15 times against the Tigers. He struck out five times and walked in four. We knew Jack Cust was a three-true-outcome guy. We just didn't know that the home run outcome had been replaced with a single to right field outcome.

The Oakland rotation is good, our hitters are not and it's not supposed to rain until Sunday. I might spend this series frolicking rather than watching.

Thu 21 April 19:10

FELIX HERNANDEZ BRANDON McCARTHY

Jeff already spent a lot of words writing about Brandon McCarthy so go read his. You can pretend they're mine if you need to. I have probably wrote all of those words at some point so really Jeff is just plagiarizing me. What an asshole.

Felix Hernandez only had two starts in which he did not make it at least six innings last season. Coincidentally, they were back to back at the start of May, right when the 2010 Mariners took their runs and went home for the year. Felix's last outing was not as bad as either of those two and he easily could have reached that six inning mark if there had been a need. He only threw 90 pitches through five innings, but the game was gone and I think it was a fine decision not to push Felix just for the sake of one more inning. 

Star-divide

Fri 22 April 19:10

MICHAEL PINEDA TYSON ROSS

The Athletic hitters are stingy swingers, even moreso than the Mariners are. That might not work so well against Michael Pineda and his strike throwing ways. By all means, Oakland, take strikes. And if you do swing, and if you do make contact, maybe hit some on the ground? Tyson Ross meanwhile is yet another reliever turned spot starter and so who knows with the pitch graph. The above are his relief grades. Ross is stepping in for the fatigued Dallas Braden which could not be more uninteresting. 

Sat 23 April 18:10

JASON VARGAS* TREVOR CAHILL

Jason Vargas has started off the season in a good way, raising his strikeouts and ground balls and reducing his walks. That is the sort of progress that will see your xFIP drop from 4.60 to 3.42. Will it hold up? Yes and no. Vargas is missing fewer bats and throwing more balls so that seems like uh-ohs on the strikeout and walk front. The ground balls might be real though. All that plus "is what you're doing right now about to kill you?" at eleven. 

Trevor Cahill is known for the sort of start he had against us in the opening series of the season. Lots of ground balls and walks with a few* strikeouts sprinkled in. His third start of the season was of a similar nature in Chicago. Alternating between those two however has been a no-walk, seven-k outing at Toronto and a no-walk, nine-k start against Detroit. Time for some more walksies, Trevor. Please? It's not like we're going to be able to do anything else.

*Okay, eight is more than a few. That was, at the time, a seeming outlier

Sun 24 April 13:10

DOUG FISTER BRETT ANDERSON*

Brett Anderson is really good and lately he's been missing bats. He's also the only lefty that we will be facing and in the only day game and you know what that means! Bastard lineup, ahoy! Jeff is probably going to cover some ground on Doug Fister's rising curve ball usage. He will again probably use words that I have written previously at some point. So feel free to copy and paste my entire internet archive into a word jumble and just read that instead.

Comment 17 comments  |  6 recs  | 

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Could you switch back to the old Pitcher Repetoire format?

I enjoyed the one used last season . It was a lot easier to understand than the new graphical one.

With the graphs I have to look in 4 different places to look at the information for one pitch versus having all the information on one line in the old one. The heights of the bars don’t mean intuitively mean anything to me so I end up tracing the line over to the 20-80 scale bar anyway. The colors also aren’t uniform (Vargas’ changeup is green and Cahill’s is blue) which limits their usage without the key ineffective at best.

It is also much easier to read the old format on a cell phone. I enjoyed being able to answer a friend who asked “What’s the scouting report on Cahill?” with “Gets a lot of GBs, but his control is lacking and his fastball doesn’t miss any bats” while at the ballpark.

I hope this ship hasn’t sailed.

by Trev on Apr 21, 2011 3:56 PM PDT reply actions  

I prefer these graphs honestly.

They stand out way more than the old matrix style setup witch made them easier to overlook. This is especially true with the kind of seasons we have where it’s easy to not care about what pitchers the other team is running out there.

by ThundaPC on Apr 21, 2011 5:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm sympathetic to the issues,

but no, I’m not switching back. The graph-paper charts were just too bland.

by Matthew on Apr 21, 2011 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

I do like the colors on these new scouting charts.

They really make the post pop. It’s also an awesome graphical representation of just how good Felix is.

M's fan in the Bay, soon to be LA SanFranPreps

by perfectstrat on Apr 21, 2011 10:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

How about a standardized color scheme then?

Red for Fastball, Blue for Curve, Black for Unknown/Other, etc.

by Trev on Apr 22, 2011 6:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

Based on Jeff's post (and what's showing at texasleaguers)

are the change/curve usage figures in Fister’s graph transposed? I’m seeing 18.5% curves and 9.6% change and the numbers above are 18% change and 10% curve.

by marc w on Apr 21, 2011 4:49 PM PDT reply actions  

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