Who's Swinging?

It's early in the season, and with peanut galleries shouting "SMALL SAMPLE SIZE" everywhere it's difficult to look at many statistics at this time. However, the stat that stabilizes the quickest is one that I like to look at as an indicator of a player's approach at the plate: Swing%.

Chone Figgins and his career 40.1% Swing% is the kind of player that doesn't take the bat off his shoulder if he doesn't have to. Contrast that with Miguel Olivo's well-documented free-swinging (almost 55% career Swing%) and you see the difference in approach the two take. It's uncommon to see players change their approach at the plate too much, even at the insistence of their hitting coaches. Players don't feel comfortable veering off the path that got them to the big leagues, and sometimes it takes struggle to convince a player they need to modify their approach. But with "proven veterans," asking them to modify an approach that's led to success at this level is almost always unsuccessful. We can say with almost certainty that Chone Figgins will not swing at many pitches, but Olivo will.

That being said, let's take a look at the data so far this season:

Above is the Swing% data (via Fangraphs) for all Mariners this year with more than 40 PA. I know that the stat stabilizes at 50 PA, but Ryan has 48 and I really wanted to include him (bolding added), as he exhibits the biggest change.

Looking at the list, we don't see much change from the Olivo, who's still swinging at balls in the opponent's batters box. Smoak, Bradley, and Cust are also in line with their career numbers.

Ichiro is swinging less so far, which may be contributing to his highest walk rate since 2002. Is this indicative of a change in his approach? It's too early to tell, but there are signs that he's laying off more pitches. It will be interesting to monitor his approach throughout the season, and by doing so find out if he's changed anything at the plate.

Feel like Chone's swinging even less than normal? It's because he is. Despite his patient approach at the plate, Chone only has a 3.6% BB rate. Hahahaha Figgins. Pitchers have figured out that Figgins can't hit the ball onto the outfield grass and are now pummeling him with a 63.6% First Strike%.

The largest change above, and the one most indicative of a change in approach, is that of Brendan Ryan. Ryan's cut his swing percentage by 6.10%; in other words, he's swinging 13% less than he has in his career. He's stopped swinging across the board, but most significantly on pitches outside the strike zone. His 16.9% O-Swing% is a full 10% less than his career numbers and is what's fueling his 12.5% BB%, almost double that of his career. Has Ryan all of a sudden gained an above-average eye? Yes and no. It's a little too early before we can draw definitive conclusions from O- and Z-Swing%. But more importantly, Ryan's taking advantage of opposing pitcher control and holding his bat while pitchers throw first strikes only 47.9% of the time. That number assuredly will rise, but Ryan showing an ability to lay off bad pitches bodes well for the future.