Tom Wilhelmsen Wins Final Bullpen Spot, Cesar Jimenez Does Not
by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 29, 2011 10:57 AM PDT
in Seattle Mariners Transactions
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PrintAccording to news that just came over the Twitter, the bullpen has now officially been finalized. Tom Wilhelmsen has earned a spot on the Mariners' Opening Day roster, while Cesar Jimenez has been outrighted to Tacoma.
The outright means that Jimenez has been removed from the 40-man roster and cleared waivers, allowing him to stick with the organization. So that's good, albeit humbling news for you Cesar Jimenez fans.
But the bigger story here is obviously the ascent of Wilhelmsen, who last year topped out with 44.1 innings with A-ball Clinton. Wilhelmsen is basically making the Rule 5 leap without being a Rule 5 pick, and he's pulling this off because the team has been impressed by the stuff he's thrown this spring. He has a hard fastball, a sharp curve and a reasonable changeup, and while his command is often erratic, there's no question that he's hard to hit when he's on, or almost on.
I don't need to go over Wilhelmsen's history since every other writer who covers the Mariners has already done so (with Baker going first all the way back in early 2010), but this is about as unusual and impressive as a guy's career can get. Sure, Wilhelmsen's previous adversity and absence were of his own doing, but guys don't just walk away from the game at 20 and come back years later to rocket to the Majors. Wilhelmsen's story is absolutely remarkable.
So hopefully Wilhelmsen's ready to strike out at least twice as many guys as he walks. The Opening Day bullpen will be:
Brandon League (R)
David Pauley (R)
Tom Wilhelmsen (R)
Josh Lueke (R)
Jamey Wright (R)
Chris Ray (R)
Aaron Laffey (L)
David Aardsma will look to return after a month, Shawn Kelley will look to return after about two months, and Dan Cortes will hang out in Tacoma, trying to throw strikes and push his way north. This is a bullpen with more question marks than an inquisitive 12 year old's text message, but the potential is obvious, and if Wilhelmsen and Lueke are able to make the adjustment, we may not literally blow every lead we get in a game.
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We're going to break camp with Tom Wilhelmsen, Josh Lueke, Milton Bradley, and Erik Bedard.
This is the best spring training ever.
by ThundaPC on Mar 29, 2011 11:07 AM PDT reply actions 12 recs
I'll have to make sure I'm watching when Wilhelmsen makes his debut.
I hope his dad is able to be there.
Some part of me wants Cesar Jimenez to be a slightly above replacement MLB reliever
To see that he did not make the roster leaves me with one of the more disappointing moments in spring training. In circumspect, the fact that I am thinking this is probably more depressing than him not actually making the roster.
Funny realisation, despite being in the org. for almost 10 years, I think this is the most Cesar Jimenez has ever been mentioned in a month on LL despite that atrocious call up he had in 2006.
Ohh, also, congratulations Wilhelmsen. You better be decent because you are surely more interesting than the rest of that retreaded pile.
by tdot mariner fan on Mar 29, 2011 11:12 AM PDT reply actions
Amazing story.
Good for him, and good for Lueke as well. I’m glad the org was able to see past the past and put the best players on the roster.
"This space for rent"
His dad seems awesome as well
“He was doing what kids do. I never looked at him as being a bad person because he smoked pot. I looked at him as dumb because he screwed up a great opportunity. But I love him.”
From The Hawks Nest - Seahawks Podcast
http://www.http://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/from-the-hawks-nest/id385227705
by Hancock.Brett on Mar 29, 2011 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
Il like Wilhelmsen because he reminds me of Goya's Colossus
He will give hitters nightmares.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Mar 29, 2011 11:32 AM PDT reply actions
I personally prefer
Cronus eating his children
by Ballard Erik on Mar 29, 2011 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions
I also like it but it does not involve a giant figure striding over the earth*
*one might almost say walking the world
by Bearskin Rugburn on Mar 29, 2011 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Only one lefty?
Shouldn’t this be a concern? Or does one of those guys have a reverse split?
It's not like we have any good lefty options in the organization
They’ll manage. It’s not going to be a big deal.
by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 29, 2011 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Neat!
now if we can just make Jamey Wright go away when Aardsma comes back, I’ll be pretty happy
Somehow I doubt it
seems like managers prefer players who are predictably mediocre to those who might suddenly burst into flames on the mound.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Mar 29, 2011 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions
Jack loves to bring in new guys to the pen every year.
Hopefully some of these guys will stick.
by Kenneth Arthur on Mar 29, 2011 12:36 PM PDT reply actions
I think you should not proclaim what Zduriencik does and does not love to do based on his very short tenure as GM of a shitty ballclub
by Bearskin Rugburn on Mar 29, 2011 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions
I think 3 years of opening day rosters and essentially 1 guy who has made the bullpen each of those years is enough to say that Jack does like to bring in new projects to the pen each year.
And I still stick by the fact that I hope we find more Aardsma’s.
by Kenneth Arthur on Mar 29, 2011 1:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Well i dont dispute the fact that you hope for something positive for the team. But as for Zduriencik,
he took over a shitty club and has been turning over the entire roster. You may as well just say that Jack loves to get new players. Relievers are numerous, unpredictable, and frequently traded at the July deadline. Every team undergoes a lot of turnover in the pen, especially at the bottom of the chain.
Aardsma has been here every single year. Kelley has been a fixture, albeit often injured. Wright and Pauley are coming back. True, of the relievers used in 2009 only Aardsma remains, but that’s because Fister and Vargas are starting, Kelley is injured and French and Olson are stashed in Tacoma as depth. How many other teams have retained that many relievers over a three year stretch?
by Bearskin Rugburn on Mar 29, 2011 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions
I wouldn't count French and Olson as "retained" just because they are still with the organization.
I’m not sure if you’re offended or not?
It’s just a bullpen discussion.
by Kenneth Arthur on Mar 29, 2011 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions
I wouldn't call Olson retained because he's a Pirate.
"I can't recommend highly enough going back and watching old clips of Jose Lopez." -Jeff Sullivan
by joof on Mar 29, 2011 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
No not offended at all did I come off as upset?
And I forgot about Olson being claimed, sorry. Nevertheless, as I said there is a great deal of turnover everywhere on the roster and bullpens in general aren’t the places where teams see any real stability over the years. Closers will stay with a team for a while, sometimes set up men as well. But beyond that…
by Bearskin Rugburn on Mar 29, 2011 3:09 PM PDT up reply actions
No, I'm probably just stressed out today.
I think going forward however, you’d hope that some of these guys establish themselves for awhile, like Lueke and Cortes and Wilhelmsen (unless he converts to starter) and these are the names I really hope to see in the 2012 bullpen opening day.
by Kenneth Arthur on Mar 29, 2011 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Bullpens have high turn over.
There has been a lot published on how to build a proper bullpen. Year to year turn over a few of the guys is just expected due to avoiding the bullpen becoming too expensive.
Also, I think we need several more years for a sample size large enough to know what a GM prefers to do. … As far as bullpen construction goes, thus far we can make the assumption that GMZ and his staff prefers cheap, tall, hard throwing RH pitchers. I think that is the only pattern I have seen in the last few years.
I'm not sure why we need a 7-man bullpen if the back end is going to be replacement-level anyway.
Why can’t we go with 6 and use the extra roster spot on bench depth?
M's fan in the Bay, soon to be LA
It will give them a better idea of what they've got once Aardsma is set to return.
by Kenneth Arthur on Mar 29, 2011 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions
But even after Aardsma returns, we'll have 2 or 3 replacement level relievers in the pen.
Surely the roster spots can be used better.
Jamey Wright, Chris Ray, and David Pauley accrued 0.1 WAR combined in over 200 innings last year.
M's fan in the Bay, soon to be LA
by perfectstrat on Mar 29, 2011 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Isn't the number of relievers...
…dependent on how far you think your starters are going to go in games?
That's certainly a big part of it
It’s early in the season, when pitchers often can’t go as long. There’s not many off days in April this year. Then there’s the (probably) inevitable Pineda rookie flameout against a LH-heavy lineup. And Bedard.
By the time they add Aardsma, they might have enough confidence to drop two guys out of the bullpen and pull a position player up from Tacoma. But I doubt it. The question gets more interesting whenever Ackley forces himself onto the club, especially if Jack Wilson is still healthy.
by Ugly Dickshot on Mar 29, 2011 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Yes, there is the early season adjustment period for pitchers.
And with a staff like ours you need to have some people to carry the load.
Did we carry a 7-man bullpen for all of last season?
I just don’t see the need for 7-man bullpens when 6 is already plenty. You don’t want to be doling out a bunch of innings to replacement level relievers, especially when you’re sacrificing positional versatility to do it.
Either way, I feel like if we go with a 7-man bullpen to begin the year, we’re not going to get out of it for a while. It will be interesting to see what happens come call-up time.
M's fan in the Bay, soon to be LA
by perfectstrat on Mar 29, 2011 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Um.....why do you think...
six is plenty when Pineda, Bedard and Fister seem likely to be six innings or even less, and Vargas and Felix aren’t guarunteed to go complete games?
Numbers from last year:
Felix: 7.35 IP/S
Vargas: 6.2 IP/S
Fister: 6.1 IP/S
And if we say Bedard goes 5.5 and Pineda goes 6, on average, that’s 13.84 IP per 5 games or 2.77 innings per game (provided the game doesn’t go into extra innings) that the bullpen needs to work.
With a 7 man bullpen, each reliever (with an unreal equal distribution) will just have to get a little more than 1 out per game (.39 IP/game). With a 6 man bullpen, each reliever would go for an average of (.46 IP/game), given the above parameters.
It’s not that big of a difference, and if you’re going to have a replacement level reliever cover those extra .07 IP/game then it’s better to have someone who can provide depth on our bench, given our current positional roster filled with guys who will need frequent days off.
With a 6-man bullpen each reliever will throw an average of about 10 IP more per season than a 7-man bullpen. And if you’re giving your better relievers more innings, then you’re already better off than if you’re giving them to a terrible reliever.
M's fan in the Bay, soon to be LA
by perfectstrat on Mar 29, 2011 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions
Why would you believe that their IP/S would be constant for the season?
Also, what’s the difference in your equation the other way?
What’s the value of the 5th man on the bench if he’s just as much a replacement player as the 7th man in the bullpen?
To paraphrase your last sentance:
With a 4-man bench each starter/bench player will get an XXX more ABs per season than a 5-man bench. And if you’re giving your better players more BAs, then you’re already better off than if you’re giving them to Josh Wilson.
Because...
given our current positional roster filled with guys who will need frequent days off
We have two players in Bradley and Ja. Wilson who are very fragile, and will need constant days off to cure their ailments. Our bench is composed of Langerhans, Adam Kennedy, Adam Moore, and Luis Rodriguez. If Bradley takes the day off, who will fill in the outfield mid-game?
What’s the value of the 5th man on the bench if he’s just as much a replacement player as the 7th man in the bullpen?
This is a good argument to make and it definitely applies in some situations, especially in the NL where there is no DH. But we happen to have a roster that could have multiple parts break down on any given day, and we need to be prepared for that. (You could say the same about Bedard, but he’s just one player and we have 7 guys ready to fill in for him).
What it boils down to is our better position players aren’t going to get as many ABs due to injury (and therefore we need reserves), whereas our bullpen can easily shelve the workload required with 6 guys.
M's fan in the Bay, soon to be LA
by perfectstrat on Mar 29, 2011 5:47 PM PDT up reply actions
Um......
….you keep assuming that the bullpen can do the workload with six guys. You haven’t shown it yet.
Moreover, you’re assuming relief pitcher innings will distribute equally, which is a fine assumption with a large enough sampling, but probably not for short stretches.
Finally, you’re using season long figures for the beginning of the season when traditionally pitchers need to stretch out.
You do know that 6-man bullpens aren't uncommon in baseball, right?
It sounds like you’ve never seen one before. Well, many teams have had one over the past couple years, and the workload is manageable, as Derek points out right here.
I said
With a 7 man bullpen, each reliever (with an unreal equal distribution)
noting that in reality, relief pitcher innings aren’t distributed equally, and that this was just an exercise to see how much extra workload a pitcher has to shelve in a 6-man bullpen, on average.
I also said:
Yes, there is the early season adjustment period for pitchers.
And with a staff like ours you need to have some people to carry the load.
So there is a benefit to using it to start the season, I just don’t see a benefit for using it for a whole season, which is what I’m arguing.
M's fan in the Bay, soon to be LA
by perfectstrat on Mar 29, 2011 7:24 PM PDT up reply actions
What outfielder should we have up?
Mike Wilson suck. Halman is no where near ready. Neither are Chavez or Peguero. Tui can’t field. Gabe Gross would have cost us another spot on the 40 man roster. It’s not as simple as that.
by Mariner John on Mar 29, 2011 8:02 PM PDT up reply actions
You're right, it's not simple.
But ideally I’d rather have a 6-man bullpen with the added bench depth. Perhaps we could nab a RH OF off of waivers and waive Wilson. You could have Carp slot in as a reserve 1B/LF if needed, though it’s not very satisfying. But if the situation calls for it (ours does) and there’s a viable OF option, we should go 6-pen, 5-bench.
M's fan in the Bay, soon to be LA
by perfectstrat on Mar 29, 2011 8:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Normally I agree with the 6 man bullpen.
But now, with the lack of off days in April, it makes sense to have 7. Especially given the dearth of viable outfielders in the organization to take a 5th bench spot.
by Mariner John on Mar 29, 2011 8:57 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree with a 7-man in April as well, but think that for the rest of the year we're better serviced with 6.
M's fan in the Bay, soon to be LA
by perfectstrat on Mar 29, 2011 9:30 PM PDT up reply actions
I'd just as well has Cust play OF as Carp
There’s just no “best” 25th man on the 40 man roster right now. Once Aarsdma and Kelley are healthy and back I would support optioning/waiving the worst 3 performers from the bullpen and bringing up a 5th bench player, but until then, what’s the point?
It will work itself out. I'm not as worried about a potential bench player who will get a few at-bats per week at most.
by Kenneth Arthur on Mar 29, 2011 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't know about you, but I'd love to see Eric Byrnes again.
M's fan in the Bay, soon to be LA
by perfectstrat on Mar 29, 2011 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Would you feel differently if the bench depth was Tui?
I would.
by lemonverbena on Mar 29, 2011 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions
I actually wouldn't mind seeing Tui on the team.
He’s no great shakes defensively, but we’d be asking him to cover LF and 1B. I wouldn’t expect him to be great with the bat, but I think he’d be decent, and having a right-hander on the bench to cover those positions seems more worthwhile than carrying 7 relievers. In April, maybe not so much, but for the bulk of the season, there should be no reason why a Major League team couldn’t manage their bullpen without needing 7 guys there.
by nathaniel dawson on Mar 30, 2011 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions
If the bullpen is shitty then it can't pitch as many innings so you need more relievers
Determined, Jonesing Commentor
I'm surprised there haven't been stories on Lueke making the club, after the hubbub last year.
"I can't recommend highly enough going back and watching old clips of Jose Lopez." -Jeff Sullivan
Those are waiting for an opportune moment
They’d get lost right now. Wait until the dog days of April, after March Madness is a memory and Opening Day is long past. Wait for him to actually pitch in a game and (preferably) do something notable, like striking out a side and earning a save. Then drop the already-written piece. That’s what I do, if I was a journalist looking for page views.
by Ugly Dickshot on Mar 29, 2011 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm so happy to see Lueke on the team.
If he’s effective, do we get to make jokes about how he Rohypnol’d the opposing hitters?
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
Just hold down the fort
I think these guys are at least servicable..Jamey Wright has been impressive this sping 8/1 K/BB in 11IP is what you like to see(I can’t stand walks..they always seem to come around to score against us) Ray can be solid and is 3+ year off of Tommy John surgery in AUG 07’(1st year or 2 after surgery is just rehab and building back arm strength) He threw decent for TEX in 09’ 3.40 ERA in a bad pitchers park and was 5-0 3.72 for world champion SF last year, Veteran guy who was a full-time closer prior to the arm trouble and seems to be healthy now..Definitely worth the flier IMO! Lueke is a flat out stud who’s talent alone will play with the big club, Pauley and Laffey are not great by any stretch but can eat innings and long relieve, League is nasty/groundball twirler who starts as closer until Aardsma gets back in a month and I’ve really liked what I’ve seen out of Wilhelmsen so far he’s 6-6 230 and has 2 pretty darn good pitches and a change and just seems to have that bulldog mentality you like out of the pen…We will be better than last year and these guys should be able to hold down the fort with a lead late in the game
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