Best Mariner 3B prospect...?
by CamraMaan on Feb 1, 2011 4:45 PM PST
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Depending on your opinion of Adam Moore and the catcher position, it could be argued that 3B is the biggest prospect hole in the M's organization (that, or its second to catcher). We have a lot of mediocre prospects, but no one who jumps off the page. Heck, our most promising 3B prospect in 2010 could easily be argued to be Ramon Morla, as he was The Destroyer among all the rookie leagues this last year. But he's now 21 and just finished up playing a season of rookie ball, so as far as progress is considered versus a players age, he's kind of behind schedule by maybe a year. So in your respective opinions, who are our best prospects, and what do we realistically expect from them? Can any of them be counted on to make an impact in the majors? From the list below, pick your three most "hopeful" prospects, and why you like them over the rest. Who should be taken off the list? I'll nominate Tenbrink to be taken off, simply for defensive reasons (he was switched to the OF in the middle of this season), but I have to include him because he was playing 3B and had good offensive stats.
Do we have our future third baseman of our organization currently sitting down on the farm...?
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Weird...
The links for Liddi and Mangini got switched… sorry about that.
Wiswall is not a 3B
He is a 1B who played some 3B without pleasant results. With Morla, Mangini, Tenbrink, Liddi and Tui, one should develop into at least a passable 3B.
Again, noted and removed...
And I think Tenbrink is kinda going in the same direction as Wiswall, as no longer really being considered at 3B.
But that being said, I like the looks of Morla, even if he is probably about a year behind schedule. He’s a toolsy player, and destroyed the rookie leagues with respect to his peers. Among all six rookie leagues there were only maybe 10-15 guys who hit 10+ HRs, and he hit 17 to lead the leagues. He also pulled a Nick Franklin by accompanying his power with some speed on the base paths as well, swiping 13 bags. He’s got a long way to go, no question about it, but in the perspective of his rookie league peers, he had the most impressive Mariner 3B player season in my book.
I’m still intrigued with Liddi and Mangini, albeit I have a restrained intrigue. Not sure why, but I just don’t buy it yet from either one. With Mangini its mostly because of the defensive side of his game, which last I checked sounded pretty poor at 3B. With Liddi I have less reason to restrain my intrigue.
I wanna like Mailloux, but he’s almost too old to justify liking.
Colina has more or less been flying under the radar, and for as little as I know about him, I like the looks so far.
by CamraMaan on Feb 1, 2011 5:08 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
With Tenbrink
I think it is more that they want him to be a utility player than his inability at 3B. I could be off on this though.
You're not off on this as far as I've been able to gather.
He’s not a great defender at any spot, but he’s passable at all four corners and swings a decent stick.
Writer: ProBallNW.com
Fan: Seattle Mariners, Seattle Sounders FC, Liverpool, Seattle Seahawks, Washington State Cougars, Buffalo Bills
So he's basically the LH verstion of Tui?
Tui seems like he would be old with how long he’s been in the system, but he’s only 7 months older than Tenbrink.
Except he actually has baseball instincts and is a decent defender.
Whereas Tui has none and is an erratic (at best) defender. Tui is the better athlete, but he doesn’t really seem to know what to do with that athleticism.
Writer: ProBallNW.com
Fan: Seattle Mariners, Seattle Sounders FC, Liverpool, Seattle Seahawks, Washington State Cougars, Buffalo Bills
Tui has also been in higher levels than Tenbrink, especially considering the similar ages, and produced offensively
I’d imagine if you had Tui start last season in A+, he would have torn it up too. I don’t know if Tui makes up for defense with his bat, but considering context, I’d have to imagine Tui is the better hitting prospect at this point.
Matt Tuiasosopo:
AAA – 2008-2010 – age 22-24 – .270/.370/.449 (945 PAs)
AA – 2006-2007 – age 20-21 – .236/.337/.343 (789 PAs)
Nate Tenbrink:
AA – 2010 – age 23 – .274/.381/.427 (284 PAs)
A+ – 2010 – age 23 – .377/.449/.646 (201 PAs)
A – 2009 – age 21 – .282/.357/.431 (527 PAs)
Write off Mailloux.
Trust me.
Writer: ProBallNW.com
Fan: Seattle Mariners, Seattle Sounders FC, Liverpool, Seattle Seahawks, Washington State Cougars, Buffalo Bills
Yeah...
I was wondering why the guy is almost 25 and A) only a couple years pro, and B) only playing down at Everett. I figured there was a reason not much word was being said about him. So is it his defense, offense, age, mentality…?
There's more to it than that.
But even without that, he’s just not very good. Average at best defender at third, and his offensive upside is Brendan Ryan. He got his numbers last year by beating up on younger competition. If he sticks around, he could be a useful organizational filler utility guy (natural second baseman, claims to be a good outfielder as well, though I haven’t seen him out there), but the key thing is “if he sticks around”. Current signs point to no.
Writer: ProBallNW.com
Fan: Seattle Mariners, Seattle Sounders FC, Liverpool, Seattle Seahawks, Washington State Cougars, Buffalo Bills
I'm no maven, but Liddi and Mangini don't seem like complete black holes.
We do have a third baseman signed for three years, so I’m not sure how worried to get.
Yeah we have figgy there now.
But if he is still there by the end of the season I feel that that will likely mean that he is not going to pan out at all. If he starts off doing well, I feel the general feeling is that Z will try to move him. Either way having a legitimate future major leaguer at 3rd would be very useful.
by themanleyman on Feb 1, 2011 5:25 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I love Figgy there too, don't get me wrong.
Its just a fact that with Figgy and Ichiro we maintain a redundancy in the lineup having two leadoff hitters, and no natural place in the lineup to best use both their abilities to the max. We also have our leadoff type hitters at two of the spots where power is normally found, in RF and 3B, instead of a more normal CF or SS. Its fine if you can find your power in the lineup from other field positions, but if you have to go to free agency to fill holes in those positions you find the options out there will rarely be what we “need”.
Then again, this is all moot point if Figgins can find a new home batting in the two hole, and flourish there. It’ll just change how our lineup “should” look… with the likes of Ackley, more of a natural two hole batter, batting 3rd, etc.
I'm pretty sure that if the team has a group of guys who all get on base at a .400 clip with no power, they'll still score runs.
Maybe they’d struggle more against high-control pitchers but the no-power doom and gloom stuff is massively overrated.
by Johnny Slick on Feb 1, 2011 6:44 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed
I’m a believer that mass OBP = runs. But you can’t have .400 OBP batters at every position. You’d be lucky to have one player with a .400 OBP, nonetheless two or three, or a whole team. There are more than a few GMs who buy into that philosophy, but you can see how hard it is for them to construct their ideal team. Such is the nature of free agency and home grown prospects in baseball. Home runs and stolen bases enhance the team’s “OBP scoring potential”, if I may call it that. I’m a firm believer that first and foremost high OBP should be the goal in the kinds of players we acquire, but right behind that I believe in acquiring as much power as possible, and in the positions that make the most sense to have it. In a classical perspective that means 1B, 3B, LF and RF. Those are key because its harder to find power hitters at the other positions. Its still easier to get power at 2B and C than SS and CF, but the corner positions reign supreme for power. Its by no means a rule, but its certainly a consistent trend.
So...
If you starve your team of power in the corners, like we have done at 3B and RF, it simply makes it that much harder to maintain a balance of OBP, power and speed on a team. But that just means you change the offensive strategy to more of a small ball scheme. I think Wak wanted to do that, but I watched him fail miserably on more than a few occasions, and as such I think he was a big contributor to our lack of offense are various levels. I’ve had little experience really watching Wedge manage in-game situations, but I hear he’s better at the small ball scheme when its needed. Dear god I hope so…….
My point is, however you can get value, you should try to get it without worrying about what else your team does or doesn't have.
At least on the hitting side. If anything, the M’s ought to be avoiding a lot of power hitters (right-handed pull hitters in particular) because they will not get the same level of value from them as other teams and therefore will overpay for what they’ll get back if they get into a bidding war with a team with a friendlier LF wall.
In terms of free agency, yes
But then any power hitter will draw his proper attention and price tag. Its not like left-handed power hitters are cheaper. But there’s certainly no reason to blow a load on a RH power hitter who can’t hit to all fields with power.
However, I have to admit that with my thoughts on building a team, and what kinds of pieces to try and get and use, I was thinking more along the lines of how I would like to build from within. You are going to have to fill holes via FA here and there, but I seriously hope we can minimize the FA moves as much as possible. If GMZ is given another three or four years I think this organization could be close to the point where we have enough talent, among a broad range of positions, that the need for big FA signings will be much much lower. It’ll depend a LOT on his success in the drafts, but so far he’s been close to genius. That ’09 draft might go down in the Mariner record books…
What about guys who might move to 3B?
Wasn’t there talk of Kyle Seager and Carlos Triunfel moving to third? If Matt Mangini is on the list of top guys, I have to wonder if the best prospect at third isn’t playing short or second right now.
Funny you mention Seager...
I have this wild dream that in the future we’ll see Ackley in LF, Nick Franklin at 2B, Marcus Littlewood at SS, and Seager at 3B… just one of those weird gut feelings.
Eventually, yeah.
I’d expect the org to give him plenty of time to try and hack it defensively at SS before moving him, though.
Writer: ProBallNW.com
Fan: Seattle Mariners, Seattle Sounders FC, Liverpool, Seattle Seahawks, Washington State Cougars, Buffalo Bills
So after Franklin, is Esteilon Peguero our next best SS prospect?
And I mean realistically, like he’s a true defensive SS.
Early writeups have him as a likely 3B or 2B.
But he’ll have to prove he can’t stay at short.
We’ll obviously know much more this time next year.
You and sb.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Feb 1, 2011 5:56 PM PST up reply actions
awwwwwww
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Feb 1, 2011 7:14 PM PST up reply actions
SB and I are in agreement that Carlos Triunfel sucks.
Dustin Ackley is going to make Joe Morgan look like Joey Cora.
AL Scout on Rendon: "I would peg him as a poor man's Jose Lopez."
I'm glad you have agreed on what to think.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Feb 1, 2011 9:18 PM PST up reply actions
As President of the Jose Lopez fan club, I was coming to the aid of my vice president.
I’m also sure there was a knock on Jose Lopez somewhere in there.
Dustin Ackley is going to make Joe Morgan look like Joey Cora.
AL Scout on Rendon: "I would peg him as a poor man's Jose Lopez."
I believe the president is required to own at least one Jose Lopez autographed baseball from 2011 FanFest
so that would make me the president still, wouldn’t it?
by seattlebruin on Feb 2, 2011 10:03 AM PST up reply actions
I don't see that restriction in the bylaws.
Dustin Ackley is going to make Joe Morgan look like Joey Cora.
AL Scout on Rendon: "I would peg him as a poor man's Jose Lopez."
He is like Jose Lopez's career with regular stupiditiy instead of adorable stupidity
and at least Loafie was productive in the high minors
by seattlebruin on Feb 2, 2011 10:04 AM PST up reply actions
Triunfel has adorable stupidity!
He’s so good at making contact that he just swings at everything rather than wait for a good pitch!
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Feb 3, 2011 1:14 PM PST up reply actions
Triunfel is at least still young
We are far from closing the book on him, even if its been a while since he has impressed the masses. Not sure what I think of him at 3B though. Just in terms of offensive production, I’d hope for more power from a 3B prospect.
Defensively it is probably the best place for him
He has the arm strength and his biggest problem is him range which will be less noticeable at third.
Great reason to trade him...
… as soon as he’s raised his stock in the minors so we can get someone of value in return. Frankly, I see no future for Triunfel with this club, at least not as a starter.
I'd rather overpay Figgins to play 3B
Than go cheap and have Triunfel at 3B.
You lost me in the opening line.
Catcher’s probably our biggest hole, followed by shortstop. Third base has a lot of guys, and none of them are elite prospects, but it’s enough to where there’s some level of redundancy in place and even if a few of them bust, something is likely to come of it. Catcher, it’s Moore, or you’re hoping for Baron. Shortstop, it’s Franklin, or you think that Littlewood/Triunfel/E. Peguero has an outside chance to stick or that Noreiga is ever going to hit.
I’d prefer not to fall back on BA because it’s kind of an easy out, but we have one catcher ranked in the top 30, and it’s you-know-who, and it wasn’t highly. At short, there’s Franklin at three, then Littlewood at eight, then nothing, and Littlewood at eight is probably a bit generous. At third, we have four guys that all ranked in the teens for us. The overall numbers are subject to a little bit of adjustment, but I think the sentiment was about right.
Anyway, to cover a few notes…
- This is what I said about Seager a few days ago…
Another interesting claim from the back-end of [Marc Hulett’s Fangraphs] list is that Kyle Seager may (retained emphasis) have the bat for third. This actually might not be outside the realm of possibility if you think of it in terms somewhat close to home for us. Take Chone Figgins (Athletics, I’m looking at you). In Chone’s age twenty-two season for Salem in the Carolina League (this was a repeat tour), he had 145 hits, twenty-six doubles, fourteen triples, three home runs, and sixty-seven walks. In Seager’s age twenty-two season for the Mavericks, he had 192 hits, forty doubles, three triples, fourteen home runs, and seventy-one walks. If you assume for a moment that the triples Chone provided would be split into either doubles or home runs for Seager, the comparison, even accounting for park factors, would seem close to fair. There major difference then would be that Chone is noted for being fleet of foot and, at least at third, had some great defensive seasons whereas Seager doesn’t have those same wheels and is noted for having inadequate range, which could be better served at third anyway. The comparison isn’t quite as outlandish as one might initially suspect, however, as is the problem with Chone, if you’re taking a hit in offense at third, you’re going to need to find another area where you can compensate for that. The Mariners might not be the best team to absorb such a blow.
Seager might be able to hit at a level that’s comparable to Chone with more power, but without the speed or the defensive talents, he’s probably not going to be the starter you want.
- Mangini makes some ugly plays at third, but he was also suffering from a leg injury for most of the season which limited his range. Nevertheless, he’s one of those hot corner defenders who doesn’t have a lot of footspeed and tries to make up for it with the hands. The leg injury was what prevented him from playing winter ball this year.
- Tenbrink was shifted midseason, but maybe not for the reasons you’d think. Liddi was already entrenched at third, and Tenbrink was noted for having some defensive inconsistencies, where he’d make a spectacular play one out and then botch a routine grounder the next. If I remember correctly, he was playing mostly third for Peoria in the Arizona Fall League.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Feb 1, 2011 5:52 PM PST reply actions 12 recs
So Tenbrink had a case of the Lopez's...
…Look good at 3B for the most part, then kick an easy grounder, or something equally stupid in the eyes of a fan…? That would at least be better news than Tenbrink not having the arm for 3B.
I wouldn't really call it that.
Tenbrink was always regarded as a high-level physical talent, but his tools didn’t translate well to baseball skills. He generally looked better in drills and batting practice than he played. Over the past few years, his bat has come around to the point where he’s an offensive contributor (checking out his baseball-reference page is interesting stuff), but the defensive aspect of the game hasn’t quite come around yet. He probably just needs more time to get it down, but it’s not a conditioning issue.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Feb 1, 2011 6:06 PM PST up reply actions
Also
I wasn’t ranking our “holes” by the depth of mediocre players, but the depth of higher caliber prospects. With both Franklin and Littlewood, we should have at least one elite SS prospect there (for all we know Franklin will fit better at 2B). I’m not nearly as confident saying the same thing about 3B.
Still...
Littlewood is probably not a SS, more likely a third baseman from what people say. Franklin has been regarded by some as a 2B. I’m hopeful that he sticks at short, but it’s hardly a sure thing.
Catcher is just a wasteland unless you count Ji-man Choi, and that’s a whole different matter unto itself. In centerfield, well, you could put Halman there if it makes you feel better, or Ackley if he doesn’t stay at second, but that’s another spot where we’re lacking. At third, even if they’re second tier prospects, they’re something.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Feb 1, 2011 6:41 PM PST up reply actions
Agreed
They are something, and that’s better than nothing. So its not a black hole at 3B, per se, there’s just not much talent in the system there that is really inspiring. I hope to all hell that Franklin can stay at SS, because that would give us a chance to build an elite lineup with the right moves by GMZ. I mean if we had solid offensive and defensive players at SS and C it would be… amazing. I’m so used to our 9th and/or 8th batters being almost a given to get out. It would be nice to have a change from the norm in that respect.
Have their been any decent defensive scouting reports on Ackley at 2B? Glove, arm, range, etc…? What if he’s best suited to play 3B defensively…?
I don't think Ackley has the arm to play third.
Otherwise, he has good footspeed, so CF is the most likely route if 2B doesn’t work out. Better to keep him somewhere up the middle since he’s not exactly a power hitter.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Feb 1, 2011 7:41 PM PST up reply actions
Makes sense.
But would you displace Guti in CF…? I mean he hasn’t been going wild with the bat, but his defense out there is crazy good…
With Gutierrez around, I would think the fallback position for Ackley would be left field
Not your typical power-hitting left fielder, but if his bat is as good as people think, he should still be able to provide plenty of offense. His offense and defense together should still equate to a really good player.
by nathaniel dawson on Feb 1, 2011 8:31 PM PST up reply actions
Guti could also become trade bait eventually.
Not saying it will happen, but don’t assume it won’t. Having Ackley as a backup plan there is certainly nice.
Writer: ProBallNW.com
Fan: Seattle Mariners, Seattle Sounders FC, Liverpool, Seattle Seahawks, Washington State Cougars, Buffalo Bills
Who knows...
I think Ackley may hit for more power than most people expect. Personally, I think 15 HRs will eventually be his annual minimum, and his “good” years will float in the 20-25 HR range for the majority of his career, with his best years at 25-30 HRs. He should also be able to steal a lot of bases, I would guess at least 25/yr, and seeing around 35/yr wouldn’t surprise me either.
You're pretty optimistic.
I’d say the more realistic target would be 15-20 on both HR’s and steals, with 25 being the absolute upside on both.
Writer: ProBallNW.com
Fan: Seattle Mariners, Seattle Sounders FC, Liverpool, Seattle Seahawks, Washington State Cougars, Buffalo Bills
If its HRs I can buy it...
But the SBs I really think he’ll get more. Thing is he has the speed and the smarts, but he’s never tried to be a beast on the base paths. It wasn’t until the end of this last season, and in the AFL, that coaches told him to start stealing bases, and he admitted that he didn’t really know how, at least not like Figgins or Ichiro. But they were making him work on it and learn the art of stealing bases. Point being, his past “production” in the SB department says nothing about what he can do. I’ve only read very good things about what he “should” be able to do when it comes to stealing bases, once he really learns how.
As for the power, the verdict is certainly far from coming in on that one. We’ll see how the extra 7-8 pounds of muscle helps him this year… when I see his physique, I see more potential to fill out in good ways. He’ll never be a slugger, per se, but 25 HRs really isn’t that demanding for a guy who swings the bat as well as he does, and could potentially put on the right kind of muscle. But if he never tops 20 HRs, I wouldn’t be surprised about that either.
Let me amend that somewhat.
He probably could steal 35 bases in a season, or possibly more. However, he is very selective in when he goes, because he wants to minimize his chances of getting caught. That drops the likely total of what he’ll get. Even Ackley himself said that his goal is 20. Most of his baserunning value comes from taking an extra base when he can, which he does regularly.
Ackley does swing the bat well, but his power is more of the line drive variety. His swing doesn’t generate a ton of loft, and frankly his frame doesn’t suggest that he’ll ever get a heck of a lot stronger than he is.
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I'm not talking about a crazy amount of muscle...
But last season I always thought another 15 pounds would be quite feasible, and maybe even 20 if he had the right workout regimen. It wouldn’t all be upper body muscle additions, but it would certainly add to his power potential. I’m kinda curious to see what he looks like with the reported 8-9 lbs of muscle gained over the off-season.
When the kid looks like he weighs 170 soaking wet, 20 pounds IS a lot of muscle to add.
Writer: ProBallNW.com
Fan: Seattle Mariners, Seattle Sounders FC, Liverpool, Seattle Seahawks, Washington State Cougars, Buffalo Bills
If Dustin Ackley shows the plus-plus hitting skill he possesses in the Majors AND hits 25 homers, I will be overjoyed
by seattlebruin on Feb 2, 2011 10:06 AM PST up reply actions
So would I
Don’t count on it, though. Like I said, it’s his absolute power upside. I don’t think he reaches it.
Writer: ProBallNW.com
Fan: Seattle Mariners, Seattle Sounders FC, Liverpool, Seattle Seahawks, Washington State Cougars, Buffalo Bills
I'd be overjoyed if he is a plus hitter with 15-20 homers and solid defense at second
I can’t imagine a scenario where he’s under a four win player if he hits like a 50 or 60% projection
by seattlebruin on Feb 2, 2011 12:51 PM PST up reply actions
I think I remember reading that he moved around a lot in the AFL
Third, first, and RF mostly. Odd spot in LF. Even had a game at SS when his manager was desperate I think. That had to have been interesting to see :P
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I used to be a fan of Mario Martinez but wow did he have a bad 2010 at A-ball
Has he played himself out of “prospect” status?
Not yet, but he's close.
His bat is not good at this stage.
I’d be interested to see if he can play the OF with his athleticism. That might give him time to bring his bat around.
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He's still regarded as a strong defender at third.
The hitting though? Not good. If you’re going to be fair to him, you’d have to point out that he never did time in the Venezuelan Summer League. He was seventeen when he was in Peoria, then eighteen in Pulaski, nineteen splitting time between Everett and Clinton, and twenty last year in Clinton. I think that it would still be reasonable to throw him into High Desert next year, just to see what happens. It’s just a matter of coaching him so that he steers clear of bad habits while he’s in that park.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Feb 1, 2011 9:10 PM PST up reply actions
Compared to Martinez, how does Morla's defense rate?
His bat seems to carry a lot of promise in prospecting circles but I also hear he has the potential to be the best defensive 3B in the system. Given how well regarded Martinez is defensively, is that just hyperbole or is there some truth in that claim?
Great question.
In both cases, the players in question were shortstops before switching over to the hot corner, but Morla has played around the infield all along, with third base only recently becoming his focus, whereas Martinez has been there since turning pro. Consequently, there are some inconsistencies in Morla’s game, mostly in that he makes a lot of throwing errors because his arm isn’t that accurate. I would say right now, they’re about equal in range,and Martinez would grade better in terms of arm (accuracy being a huge part of that) and hands (because he’s been there a while), but long-term, if Morla adjusts his throws and develops the hands a bit more, he could be the superior defender because he’s not as likely to lose footspeed/range as Martinez is.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Feb 2, 2011 11:41 AM PST up reply actions
Thanks!
Are they then grooming Morla for third because they believe that’s the best fit for his skillset or is it in expectation that he’ll eventually fill out and have to move there. Is there any chance he shifts back up the defensive spectrum to second base or SS or is 3B his most likely future?
Third seems like his future.
It’s hard to imagine him moving back up at this point.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Feb 2, 2011 1:23 PM PST up reply actions
Looking at that list.........kinda lackluster.
There’s a lot of possibilities, but even with all that, I’d be surprised if even one of them proves to be a quality third baseman.
Burin is interesting, if only because he’s really young and we haven’t seen him enough yet to know that he can’t do it. He’s years away, though.
Morla had a good year (nice to see that kind of power), but I’m not sold on him until I see him continue to hit with that kind of authority as he advances. And he needs to continue advancing, because as you noted, he’s 21 now and well down in the minors.
Tenbrink is pretty intriguing, as he seems to have a good overall skill set. I like the speed combined with the ability to both draw walks and hit for extra bases. Defensive versatility is never a bad thing, either. I suppose it’d say more about him if it were up-the-middle spots, but, hey, at least he’s got the corner positions thing going. A little old for the leagues he’s played in, so I wonder if he isn’t just taking advantage of younger competition. And, as others have mentioned, third may not be his primary position in the Mariner’s thinking.
Colina, to me, is just kind of “there”. He’s there, he’s been there for quite a while now, and he’ll probably be there for a while longer. He’s a survivor, but I can’t see anything in him to get excited about.
It is good to have a lot to choose from. Increases the chances that one will come through.
by nathaniel dawson on Feb 1, 2011 9:21 PM PST reply actions
I didn't even notice Colina on the list the first time I read it.
Probably because I haven’t even thought of him in a year…
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To whomever...
How does Colina grade out as a SS…? He played more games at SS than anywhere else in ’10, so was this for good reason, or due to other circumstances?
Filler I would assume.
Not a lot of decent SS options in the org last year.
Writer: ProBallNW.com
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Dunno.
Like I said, I haven’t thought of him in a long time. He’s pretty much an org-filler non-prospect.
Writer: ProBallNW.com
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Fair enough
And I appreciate the opinions and perspectives here… :)
Juan Diaz started the year for High Desert, and then he was traded.
There wasn’t much else to go with there. Colina is probably more of a second baseman than anything else, and in his second tour of High Desert, he didn’t improve much over the previous year in any area but average. Except he got hit by pitches more than twice as much as he used to. Some people might consider that a skill.
Like Conor said, org filler.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Feb 1, 2011 10:35 PM PST up reply actions
I'll mention that I sure hope Rendon is there at #2.
Keith Law said he’d guess that it could be close to 50/50 that the pirates don’t take him #1. I just hope Purke or Cole go crazy this year and force Pittsburgh’s hand to take one of them over Rendon.
I've been trying to figure that one out...
Which way do the Pirates go with the first pick…? Its honestly too early to have any clue, because the college season ahead will dictate a lot of who stands where in overall draft value on draft day. But based on need? Their current rotation needs help, but their farm is stocked with pitchers. The question is how much faith they put into those pitchers to fill out their future rotation. Jameson Taillon should be a lock to be in their rotation, and Stetson Allie is still a question mark, but promising. Rudy Owens looks impressive, so he may be in there. Jeff Locke looked great statistically last year. Are those four enough to sit pat and skip on Purke and Cole? Or do they still feel the need to get one more ace?
On the other hand, they have to find their answer to 3B/1B/RF… does Alonso stick at 3B or 1B? Does Garret Jones play 1B or RF? Can they fill the remaining position from the existing farm next year once Overbay is gone? Or do they draft Rendon to fill that hole?
I think its fair to say they are realistically 50/50 on this right now...
But damnit I’m crossing my fingers that Rendon is sitting there at #2!
You should never draft based on need with a top pick.
Take the best or, if you’re cheap, the best affordable player available.
You particularly don't draft for need when you're forecasting a future rotation of guys who haven't reached the majors yet
Particularly when 2 of them haven’t pitched above the high school level.
Its easy to say you draft the best player available...
… and not based on need, but that’s more of a factor when there is an agreeable disparity in talent to the point where one is “the best”. Who is the best between Rendon and Purke and Cole? If there is a definitive answer, then you take the best player available. If not, you take the player who fits your needs most. I mean if you have two equal talents, and you can’t decide who to take based on talents alone, what, do you just flip a coin then? No, you take the player who fits the team’s needs most. Until one of those three secures the “best player available” tag, then you have to consider team needs into the equation.
But you kinda don't
because the player you draft this year might not even make it to the big club for two or three years, by which time the club’s needs might have/almost certainly will have changed. That’s why “take the best player available” is solid advice.
by pdb on Feb 2, 2011 5:08 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
That's the truth of it.
In other sports, you draft for a combination of need and talent available. In baseball, because of the delay that you see in the vast majority of prospects before they make an impact at the top level, IF they ever make one at all (biggest “if” in all of sports), talent HAS to win out over need, because you never know what needs you’ll have by the time these players are ready. If you bring in enough talent, the needs will take care of themselves.
There are some cases where there’s a need through the breadth of the organization (i.e. the terrifying catching situation for the M’s right now), you can make an argument for concentrating on filling needs at times in the draft. For the first ten rounds or so, however, you have to have talent first, second, third, fourth, and fifth on your list of priorities.
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by c_dowley on Feb 2, 2011 8:51 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
So then...
while its realistically hard to compare a 3B and SP in terms of overall talent, if/when you have two guys, or three, who by all accounts grade out as about as equal of talents as you can infer, who would you take? Say the draft was right now, and you’re the Pittsburgh GM… who do you take?
If you have a consensus that two players are, in actuality, exactly equal (extremely rare, but we'll suspend belief for this hypothetical)
Then you take the one that’s easier/cheaper to sign.
I agree 100%
You draft the best talent on the board every pick. But there can be a point where the best two talents are the same grade in your book, and assuming they playing different positions you have to pick the one who can potentially fill the biggest organizational need, with respect to their positions. That’s all I’m saying.
Now in reality its a moot point to pick one of these guys right now, because a whole college baseball season is still ahead, and a lot can and will change before the draft. But when draft day comes, if the top three remain Rendon, Cole and Purke, and by all accounts they grade out as elite athletes, you still have to decide what suits your team the best.
Garrett Jones? Overbay?
If the Buccos are thinking about where Jones plays or how long they’ll have Overbay when they decide whom to pick No. 1, they’ll never have a winning record…..
Pirates Draft Day philosophy.....
If Bill Bavasi were working for them then they’d worry about a logjam at third. Too bad he’s with the Reds…
Well the good news there is that if Purke or Cole "go crazy" this year, then we can't lose. Even if we "have" to draft one of them instead of Rendon.
by Kenneth Arthur on Feb 2, 2011 8:44 AM PST up reply actions 5 recs
Remember when we were getting Grant Green and Dustin Ackley was 5th or 6th on most people's boards?
A lot can happen in 6 months and I don’t think it’s worth all this hoping for Rendon.
Yes, but if you'll permit a counterpoint...
Anthony Rendon is awesome. And he fits an area of organizational need, to boot.
This is true. However, it's well known that Jack Z. loves college hitters.
and so do I. I want Rendon or Springer (OF, Uconn)
It is? Because as GM his first pick has indeed been a college hitter (the consensus #2 player on the board) followed by a high school pitcher with the following years first pick.
I think he will once again take the best player available at #2. I’m not going to try and predict who that will be, but like I said, if Purke or Cole “go crazy” then by all means go for it.
by Kenneth Arthur on Feb 2, 2011 2:24 PM PST up reply actions
Keith Law talked about it in a Larry Stone article about the 2011 draft
Law is rhapsodic about the 2011 draft, calling it “unbelievable, epic. It’s rich in college position players, which Jack (Zduriencik, the Mariners’ general manager) loves. He always has liked college hitters. It’s the best crop since 2005.”
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/larrystone/2012495475_stone01.html
I'd love having Springer in the system...
but I don’t like him at #2 overall. Love the athleticism and the power, but striking out that often in a non-powerhouse baseball conference is a big red flag for me.
My money is on Triunfel or Morla...
But maybe just maybe the Pirates get arm-hungry, Anthony Rendon falls into our lap, and this is all a moot point.
The hope...
I think, is that Rendon’s asking price is too high compared with the guys projected to go at picks 2-5 and PGH balks. I don’t think it will be because Pittsburgh is addressing an area of greater need – just that they may value Cole or Purke closely enough to Rendon that they don’t think he’s worth $3-5 million more to bring in.
This is, of course, assuming the top ranks stay the same between now and June, which is obviously a flawed assumption, but it’s fun to think about.
Cost is definitely a factor as well...
But it’s not like teams haven’t and won’t continue to draft for need over talent.
I have to think that how the Pirates value Pedro Alvarez will factor at least somewhat into the discussion.
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