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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

Jeff Francis And Depressing Company

Jack Zduriencik has admitted to interest in adding a starting pitcher to the Mariners' rotation. Recently, the Mariners were linked to free agent Jeff Francis. Earlier this morning, Geoff Baker mentioned that the Mariners were going to meet with Francis' agent. Then Jon Morosi chimed in with:

Agent for Jeff Francis plans to meet #Pirates, #Mariners, #Twins this week.

I know it isn't fair, but I can't help my instinctive responses, and my instinctive response when I see the Mariners included in that company is "bleh". As a rule of thumb, I don't like when my team pursues the same free agents as the Pirates, because it reminds me that my team has a lot in common with the Pirates, and the Pirates bum me out.

So, Francis. We won't go super in-depth here, because this is still in the early stages, and there's no sense going super in-depth on every player to which the Mariners are linked. But we should say something.

Good: Over the past two seasons, since coming back from shoulder surgery, Francis has posted a better FIP than Colby Lewis, Jair Jurrjens and Carl Pavano.

Bad: Last year, Francis' strikeouts dropped from 15% to 11% as he moved from the NL to the AL. His strikeout rate did not drop by four percent. It dropped by four percentage points.

Good: Francis is left-handed, making him a fit for the ballpark.

Bad: Along with the drop in strikeouts, Francis saw his velocity drop by more than two miles per hour across the board.

Good: Francis has an injury history and has posted a higher-than-expected ERA of late, potentially driving down his price.

Bad: Chris Capuano has had a similar last two seasons, and he signed for $10 million over two guaranteed years.

Good: Based simply on WAR/salary, Francis will probably be worth more than the contract he signs.

Bad: Do the Mariners need to be spending that money on an older Jason Vargas clone?

Undecided: Here are some pictures of Jeff Francis making the same facial expression. Those eyebrows.

Star-divide

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Comment 32 comments  |  2 recs  | 

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Kevin Millwood: Radar Image

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Display:

He looks well-meaning.

The Mariners are a well-meaning franchise.

I've got ridiculous upside.
-
Got me a Twitter. Follow me, won't you?

by Jacson Bevens on Dec 6, 2011 12:34 PM PST reply actions  

God damn tease

My computer was loading the site slowly and I thought we made a move of interest. Instead I get pictures of Jeff Francis – which is about as disappointing as something can get

"Tell my tale to those who ask. Tell it truly, the ill deeds along with the good and let me be judged accordingly. The rest is silence." ~ Dinobot

by beastwarking on Dec 6, 2011 12:35 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

He looks more like the reigning North American Starcraft 2 Champion

Than a baseball player.
You know who looks like a baseball player. Jamie Moyer

by Craptastic-J on Dec 6, 2011 12:49 PM PST reply actions  

Frank Caliendo?

"Tell my tale to those who ask. Tell it truly, the ill deeds along with the good and let me be judged accordingly. The rest is silence." ~ Dinobot

by beastwarking on Dec 6, 2011 1:15 PM PST via mobile up reply actions  

I'd much rather take a flier on Moyer

For both the sentimental reasons and the (presumed) difference in cost. I mean I guess it makes a little more sense if they end up trading Vargas and want another vet arm in his place, but considering how much money Capuano got I don’t forsee Francis being much cheaper, which negates the reason you’d trade Vargas in the first place.

by _Hutch_ on Dec 6, 2011 1:26 PM PST reply actions  

Cheer up, lil' buckaroo!

He constantly looks as though he’s about to cry.

Moyer, please.

by short on Dec 6, 2011 2:00 PM PST reply actions  

I dunno, I might prefer the sad face.

I am convinced that Seattle sports teams exist to make me hate Seattle sports teams.

by the other side on Dec 6, 2011 2:07 PM PST up reply actions  

-

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Dec 7, 2011 12:14 AM PST up reply actions   3 recs

I guess it wouldn't hurt to have one more filler type starter in the org. But why pay for it?

Felix, Pineda, Vargas should be locks for the rotation. Then you’re asking Furbush and Beavan to be capable of holding down the last 2 spots until Hulzten is ready and there isn’t much depth beyond that. That’s really it. The team is going to have to fill out the Tacoma starting pitching staff anyway, right? I know it’s terribly unexciting to pay money to Jeff Francis but it’s good to have a few options around. Can’t rely on everyone staying healthy or not being terrible, since I’m pretty sure Beavan is bad and Furbush sure isn’t great. However, that sort of thing can be filled by picking guys like David Pauley off the scrap heap, sort of like when the Mariners signed David Pauley off the scrap heap, which was a fairly convincing argument that guys like David Pauley can be pulled off the scrap heap.

In conclusion, let’s save the money and not spend unnecessarily on guys who will likely be some approximation of bad and have no upside. Why not just raid the scrap heap and pay peanuts to someone else who will likely be some approximation of bad and have no upside?

by abender20 on Dec 6, 2011 2:22 PM PST reply actions  

I have liked the idea of Jeff Francis for months now

and was actually going to do a post on him at some point, but my entire interest revolved around me thinking he’s going to get something like 1Y/2-3M and for that I’d totally take him. Jeff Francis isn’t awful and he’d offer 175IP rotational insurance.

by Matthew on Dec 6, 2011 2:31 PM PST up reply actions  

I'd also rather have the flexibility of a scrap heap dude for the sake of not locking up a rotation spot on someone not so great.

I’d like Furbush to get a good long look and all that. For 1 year, 2-3m, fine. I see no problem with that. Otherwise I’d rather just scoop up two or three pilers, bring them to Spring Training, and see who looks like fun.

Also not factoring into the logical portion of my reasoning is the fact that Francis refuses to strike people out and has a weak chin.

by abender20 on Dec 6, 2011 2:37 PM PST up reply actions  

Jeff, do you read xkcd?

Because it seems interesting that you made the percentage/percentage point distinction just now.

http://xkcd.com/985/

by twelveoutof10 on Dec 6, 2011 4:28 PM PST reply actions  

If Zach Braff were a pitcher

He would be Jeff Francis, the soft tossing lost puppy lefty.

by dougstrangerthanfiction on Dec 6, 2011 5:35 PM PST reply actions  

Life-long Mariners fan, but I've lived in Pgh the last two seasons

and, for what it’s worth, over the last two years I’ve found the Pirates far less irritating than the Mariners. Lower expectations to be sure, but whatever. Just fwiw.

by bdunn02 on Dec 6, 2011 8:20 PM PST reply actions  

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