Why just meeting expectations might be enough

by Chris_FB on Dec 13, 2011 10:56 AM PST

So, I'm trying to distance myself from despair over the Angels' signings, and the lack of activity by the Mariners this offseason as of mid-December. To do that, I'm trying to figure out how a mediocre offseason and just having a roster that doesn't all tank at once, could be a possible contender.

I'm shamelessly riffing off of Dave Cameron's offseason plan to do just that. I think I have a way to have some hope here, if I'm using WAR correctly. My apologies if this comes across as rosterbation. I'm trying to steer away from that by just inserting placeholders for some positions, rather than any particular people.

Hope can be had by:

adding some league average players
having no terrible cliff-dives from anyone
a bounce-back season from a couple people
a modest step forward from 2 or 3 players who are supposedly some of the future of the franchise anyway

I think this, all taken together, is both more realistic than "we need Fielder / a monster offense", and still a stretch, as we haven't seen a roster all have an average or meets-expectations season yet.

My napkin math is after the jump.

Start with the lineup. It depends on Ackley having a breakout year, Smoak having a healthy year, and Guti and Ichiro bouncing back. Everyone else needs to just be league average. The numbers after each name are WAR. Comments in parenthesis.

C Jaso 2 (league average - assumes Jaso is 2010 Jaso and not 2011 Jaso, of course)
1b Smoak 2.7 (fan projection from Fangraphs)
2b Ackley 4 (fan projection on Fangraphs is actually 5.7!)
SS Ryan 2 (league average)
3B Average player 2 (league average)
LF Average player 2 (league average)
CF Gutierrez 3 (fan projection from Fangraphs)
RF Ichiro 3 (This is more than what fans had him at. 3 is what I think a end-of-career bounceback year looks like, esp. since his only years under 4 were last year (.2) and 2005 (3.4).)
DH "Meh" player, 1.5 (low-expectations rotation of generic people)

That's 22.2 WAR there.

If you have mediocre bench players at 1 WAR each for 2 infielders and an outfielder, plus .5 WAR from Olivo, that's another 3.5 for 25.7 WAR.

For the bullpen, if you have League and another good reliever each contributing 1 WAR, 4 guys being average at .3 WAR each, and one guy being kinda meh at 0 WAR, that's another 3.2 WAR, for 28.9 WAR.

Finally, the rotation. Pencil in...

Felix for 6 WAR
Pineda for the fan-projected 4 WAR
Vargas for 2.5 WAR
A league-average pitcher for 2 WAR
A 5th starter / new guy breaking in / random assortment for 1 WAR

That gives you 15.5 WAR. 28.9 + 15.5 = 44.4 WAR. 43.8 WAR was the Angels' WAR last year, and it was 10th overall in baseball.

I don't know what the threshold will be for winning the West or the Wild Card in 2012. And I don't know what 'strength of schedule' does here, i.e. how these M's would hold up against the Rangers and Angels. And obviously WAR is a counting stat, not a predictive one, so hopefully I'm not abusing it so much here that I'm wasting your time. (Apologies if I have.)

But what all this leads me to hope for, is not some wonderful Pujols-sized Xmas gift; not some miracle run like '95 or '01; just a fervent hope that people can actively not suck. No fiery crashes, but no miracles either.

The Mariners can just get average players for 3b, LF and SP, have modestly good seasons from several players, and then have everyone else simply meet expectations. Is that too much to ask?

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Comments

Did the Mariners move to the NL?

by BaronVonBullshit on Dec 13, 2011 11:51 AM PST reply actions

Bah. Even better if one throws in 1.5 for a paltry hand-wave at DH, isn't it? Edited. Thanks.

by Chris_FB on Dec 13, 2011 1:06 PM PST up reply actions

A thought

2007 Mariners were in contention until early September. The preceding offseason was emotionally one of the worst of all time (out Chris Snelling, Rafael Soriano; in Horacio Ramirez and Jose Vidro).

2010 Mariners crashed and burned miserably. The preceding offseason was emotionally one of the best of all time (out Carlos Silva; in Cliff Lee; Jojima opts out of contract; Felix extended).

I see no interesting relationship with any of our other recent offseason/season combos. As it is, I’m going go go out on a limb and say offseason emotions are overrated.

As far as how next year’s team stacks up, I think it is asking for a lot.

Breakout for Ackley; Bounce-backs from Ichiro, Guti, Jaso, and Smoak; League Average from three undetermined positions 3B, LF, and SP; Decent-to-good bullpen; Decent-to-good bench; Strong rotation; No negative contributers; And little to no injuries.

It is definitely possible to meet these requirements but to expect it is just asking for disappointment. Even in meeting the requirements we’re likely still looking at 3rd place at best.

Some fans simply don’t want to hear it but I think it’s beneficial for 2012 to be another development year with the team looking to win at least 75 games while further establishing pieces to build around.

by ThundaPC on Dec 13, 2011 12:07 PM PST reply actions

Good points all around. I agree that offseason events and emotions are a fun, mild distraction and not a predictor of anything.

And yeah, I know that’s an awful lot of moving pieces. But I’ve been trying to reframe things away from “we need superstars like other teams have” and get into appreciating what e.g. “no negative contributors” looks like.

by Chris_FB on Dec 13, 2011 1:12 PM PST up reply actions

The absence of bad luck strikes me as good luck.

Assuming you want players who reach anywhere within the upper 90% of their abilities, for that to happen up-and-down the lineup (nine players) is a 38.7% chance. (.9^9)

by Two Rs and Two Ls on Dec 13, 2011 3:08 PM PST reply actions

Shouldn't that be .1^9 if we want all 9 to reach their 90th percentile or above?

by joof on Dec 13, 2011 3:18 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs

I think so.

Which is 0.0000001%.

by Cascadian Man on Dec 13, 2011 3:26 PM PST up reply actions

Well, if I can abuse your math for a moment...

I’d like the players the Mariners get to be hitting those WAR values as their 50th percentile. E.g. don’t get a guy whose upper ceiling, 90th+ percentile performance at 3b is 2 WAR. I’d like them to generally be a 2 WAR fellow if they just have an average season.

So doesn’t that make this more .5^9?

by Chris_FB on Dec 13, 2011 4:01 PM PST up reply actions

I think so.

Which is 0.0000001%.

by Cascadian Man on Dec 13, 2011 3:25 PM PST reply actions

Oh dammit reply fail.

by Cascadian Man on Dec 13, 2011 3:25 PM PST up reply actions

This is the argument that is made every year, "if we get bounce back performances from everyone and everyone at least has an career average season..."

Except that just isnt going to happen. Realistically, unless you have a roster full of 24 year olds with potential, you should plan for everyone to perform BELOW their career averages, because you need to account for average luck, which means injuries, bad BABIPS, declining players, etc.

I believe if you want to realistically expect 90 wins, you should put a 95 win team out there. Because nothing in baseball ever goes how you expect, thats what makes it so great.

by Sambearpig on Dec 13, 2011 4:42 PM PST reply actions

la la la la la i can't hear you

by Chris_FB on Dec 13, 2011 4:54 PM PST up reply actions 3 recs

But seriously, I'd like to hope I'm being conservative enough with some of the estimates above...

…that some surprises (e.g. Smoak healthy and hitting out of his mind) might offset some of the negatives (e.g. Ichiro not coming back to form). What I’m hoping for is to not see SO much of the instances of 5, 6, 7+ people tanking all at the same time, due to injury, bad luck, being sucky in the first place, poor vision, end of career, stomach ailments, etc. etc.

by Chris_FB on Dec 13, 2011 4:58 PM PST up reply actions