A Potentially Free Mike Carp Clone
by Matthew on Dec 11, 2011 4:32 PM PST
in Around Major League Baseball
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PrintLast week the San Diego Padres traded for Huston Street from the Colorado Rockies and in the aftermath of the trade, designated Jeremy Hermida for assignment. The once vaunted prospect has been shipped around a lot the past two seasons and this wasn't his first release either. With just 66 Major League plate appearances in 2011, Hermida doesn't seem likely to me to garner much more on the open market than a minor league deal with a Spring Training invite otherwise known as the Jack Zduriencik special.
Hermida is coming off a monster season with Louisville, the Reds Triple-A affiliate, with a .319/.400/.524 line in a close to neutral park for the International League, but the batting average was BABIP-driven (.387) rather than because of a meaningful drop in strikeouts or anything. No, I'm not interested in Hermida because I see something in his recent Minor League numbers suggesting that he's overhauled himself or developed in such a way that foreshadows a Major League breakout. I'm curious about him precisely because he's about the same hitter he's always been, but that hitter isn't all that bad and it would totally the exact opposite of surprise me if Zduriencik ropes him in.
Specifically, looking at the combined Triple-A and MLB numbers from the past two seasons, Jeremy Hermida looks almost exactly like Mike Carp.
| Swing | PPA | Walk | Contact | Strikeout | XBH | |
| Carp | 45% | 3.9 | 9% | 76% | 21% | 42% |
| Hermida | 42% | 3.9 | 9% | 76% | 23% | 36% |
Carp has shown more power recently and if he can maintain that in Seattle, then great, no real need for Hermida. The benefit I see is that Hermida can add some outfield depth if the team ends up needing it. He would be a hedge, a further insurance policy for the pile. And perhaps Hermida, who will turn just 28 this coming January, finally rediscovers what made him so coveted in his early 20s. The Mariners may not be able to lay a foundation of solid stones, but if you gather up enough loose gravel, maybe the suck rain will at least drain through.
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The hope with Mike Carp...
Is that he is able to hit with the power he had last year (or not quite) with the patience he showed until last year.
But considering that most of our team is expected to be below league average, it seems like he could be a just-over league average player. Basically, better than any DH we’ve had for a long time, sadly.
Perhaps he could evolve into a Raul Ibanez with a little better patience, at his ceiling?
Seems like with the Angels and Rangers having control of the AL West at least for a year or two, it isn’t a good time to do much more than build and test some talent for when Ichiro comes off the books.
Can someone bring this back around to Hermida for me, because I'm not seeing it...
I don't want to achieve immortality through my work... I want to achieve it through not dying.
by Terminator X on Dec 11, 2011 5:28 PM PST up reply actions
Sure...
Hermida might be a good addition to the pile, but I don’t see him as valuable when we 1) already have Mike Carp, 2) don’t really need the Mike Carp we have, and 3) I personally think Mike Carp is better than what we saw from him last year.
Of course, I’m never opposed to adding stuff to the pile. Hell, lets sign Jamie Moyer and see if he can chart the pile.
And I realize...
that point 2 and 3 seem to counter each other, but what I’m saying is that considering that this team needs a REAL LH DH/LF, Mike Carp is a fine fill-in, and so would Hermida, but eventually we’re going to need either Mike Carp to become something better than Mike Carp, or we’re going to need someone who isn’t Mike Carp, or evil Mike Carp, as I believe Hermida apparently is.
Or maybe Mike Carp is actually Evil Hermida.
I have reached my Mike Carp allotment for the day.
I think I would enjoy watching Hermida in Tacoma
COME ON JACK! DO IT!
by Bret Boone's Farm on Dec 11, 2011 5:01 PM PST reply actions
Better idea than signing Josh Willingham,
that’s for goddamn sure.
by _Hutch_ on Dec 11, 2011 5:23 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
One doesn't preclude the other.
Hermida shouldn’t be expensive and doesn’t really have the leverage to necessitate a 25 man roster spot.
He can essentially replace Ryan Langerhans in terms of organizational role.
If he can come up and contribute, neat! If he doesn’t and he refuses to go back to AAA, you’ve lost nothing and Arizona gets a few dingers.
Nobody can replace Langerhans in my heart.
How come you can do all this other great shit, but you can't lie the fuck down and sleep?
by JAH on Dec 11, 2011 7:27 PM PST up reply actions 3 recs
I remember back when he was considered the Marlins' Jeff Francouer when being called up for the first time.
That’s too bad that he ended up fading into obscurity. But it would be neat to see him revitalize his career somewhat by filling in a Ryan Langerhans type role for the M’s.
2011 Safeco Field Record: 1-0 ; Overall Safeco Field Record: 13-5
Hermida also wasn't that good in the field or on the basepaths for the Marlins, etc.
…or so the pseudo-stats suggest (and your picture).
I’ll pass. Leave Saunders/Robinson/Catricala to roam the Cheney outfield.
Man, we should really clone some better players and get them.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
Heck, at one point we have 4 HoF'ers on one field
and couldn’t get into the playoffs for two out of 3 years. And in the prime/start of their careers. With Lou Pinella managing.
Seriously, I think the M’s could play with an all Willy Mays outfield, Ozzie Smith at 2B and SS, with Pujols clones playing 1B and 3B, and Johnny Bench catching, and we’d probably still only go .500.
But then we’d get rid of them all, and win 116 games the next year only to lose in the playoffs.
I find this scenario highly improbable.
Post tenebras lux
by Archibald Cunningham on Dec 11, 2011 9:32 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Yeah that's asking a lot.
Mays just doesn’t have the range he used to.
Seriously. No way all those right handers in Safeco reach 81 wins.
...and now I'm here
Ok, I think it's time for rehab, we've hit rock bottom...
When we’re seriously discussing someone who might be be as good as Mike Carp as a good addition to the team.
Maybe they should just buy a Japanese team and put them on the field.
There's a floor?
"Why ask a failed romance to come see your successful one? You know, it's like inviting the Seattle Mariners to a World Series game. It's just weird for everyone."
Ok, I think it's time for rehab, we've hit rock bottom...
When we’re seriously discussing someone who might be be as good as Mike Carp as a good addition to the team.
Maybe they should just buy a Japanese team and put them on the field.
I think what Matthew is saying is "Hey, why the fuck not?"
not that it’s a good addition to the team.
It would be a minor league contract.
Jesus, people, Matthew wasn’t proposing batting him clean up.
by Mariner John on Dec 11, 2011 10:07 PM PST up reply actions 8 recs
Well Mike Carp did hit a lot of cleanup last year.
Though I’m also pretty sure Mike Carp is going to be better than Jeremy Hermida. In fact, I’ll call it right now:
This will be a silly silly post by the half-way point of Mike Carp’s 2012 season.
I absoultely fail to see how you can turn:
Carp has shown more power recently and if he can maintain that in Seattle, then great, no real need for Hermida. The benefit I see is that Hermida can add some outfield depth if the team ends up needing it. He would be a hedge, a further insurance policy for the pile. And perhaps Hermida, who will turn just 28 this coming January, finally rediscovers what made him so coveted in his early 20s.
into me stating that Mike Carp and Jeremy Hermida will have similar 2012 seasons. There’s no way for this to become a “silly silly post” no matter what Mike Carp does next year. I’m not advocating Mike Carp be replaced by Jeremy Hermida. I don’t see how you can read that into this post.
"I have horrible reading comprehension and don't understand the concept of position depth within a organization."
by Cascadian Man on Dec 11, 2011 10:17 PM PST up reply actions 6 recs
There's a floor?
"Why ask a failed romance to come see your successful one? You know, it's like inviting the Seattle Mariners to a World Series game. It's just weird for everyone."
OK this is actually bothering me.
Let’s go back here: http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2011/11/8/2547316/understanding-mike-carp
“That’s my understanding of present day Mike Carp, and that description doubles as an approximation of Nelson Cruz.
…
Cruz isn’t a superstar. He’s a power-hitting support piece. And Carp, I think, is ready to be a power-hitting support piece.”
How did we all get as down on Mike Carp as we are now? Is this some weird side-effect of the Pujols-Fielder sweepstakeses? How did Mike Carp go from Nelson Cruz comps to Jeremy Hermida comps in a month? Jeremy Hermida who is 2.5 years older and trending in exactly the opposite direction. I don’t get it.
Wedge strongly implied during one of his Winter Meetings interviews that Carp has LF to himself to lose going into 2012. To continue with the Hermida comps, do we consider Carp DFA-able?
Some research has been conducted in the meantime.
Dave Cameron posted The Mike Carp Family of Hitters which suggested that Carp’s production was largely BABIP driven and followed it up with Wells and Carp, which covered the hot and cold streaks of each while stating the obvious of “Wells is a better fielder.”
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Dec 11, 2011 10:57 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I was mostly taking issue with Carp==Hermida.
But yeah, Wells is better than both, though he’s also older than Carp and has apparently lost some favor with Wedge with his health issues last year. As someone else pointed out in the comments of one of these posts, Wedge loves Carp for his conditioning improvements between 2010 and 2011.
Anyway, thanks for reminding me of those USSM posts, I’d transitioned almost entirely over here after discovered USSM first years ago.
Equating Carp and Hermida is falsely making a conditional point into an absolutist claim.
Hermida’s an added level of redundancy potentially available for no cost. There’s nothing else going on right now except the upcoming non-tender deadline so I’ve been looking at players recently or about to be cut.
I’m not saying they are or will be the same value in 2012. I’m pointing out that the two have had eerily similar approaches, and basic-level results, but, and I mentioned, Carp’s shown more power. If Carp’s power stays, then he’s obviously better than Hermida. No, Carp should not be considered DFA-able. Hermida, on the other hand, is like a regressed version of Mike Carp. He’s the Mike Carp family of hitters that JY mentioned.
And speaking of that, and why Jeff can squint and see a Nelson Cruz approximation and others see far less, is in part because Dave’s piece, interesting as it was, uses only Carp’s 2011 MLB rates for contact, swing and ISO. Obviously there’s some uncertainty there going forward because of the small sample and radical change in hitting skills displayed. Jeff and I both paid word service to Carp’s destroying of the PCL though, which is the exciting part about Carp because it hints at more potential growth.
So, Dave’s right that Mike Carp in Seattle as he was in 2011, profiles as a roughly league average hitter over a long enough sample, which is, suprise!, what Jeremy Hermida has been. And Jeff’s right that there could be more upside than that because Carp’s numbers in Tacoma were so ridiculous. And everyone else is right in that obviously we hope Carp can combine hitting for power with finding his ability to draw walks again.
by Matthew on Dec 11, 2011 11:31 PM PST up reply actions 4 recs
Stranger things have happened with Carp.
He went from moderate doubles, moderate home runs, a good number of walks, and no perceivable left/right splits, to moderate doubles, a high home run total, fewer walks, and an extreme left/right split. Last season, the power and the splits were reconciled somewhat, but we’re still waiting on the walks to rebound to 2009 levels when he drew 58, or better still, 2008 levels when he drew 79. He’s flashed several different things over the year but only a couple at any given time.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
I guess I'm just touchy about Carp
because he’s all we have right now other than Ackley, Smoak (with thumbs version), and Wells that can we realistically talk about an > .750 OPS next year unless someone really breaks out and/or Guti comes back to life. My inner bad-fan feels like we need Mike Carp to be a thing for the 2012 to be watchable.
I admit taking “Mike Carp Clone” and “Designated Jeremy Hermida for assignment” with me, packed ‘em in my bags and then took the Irrationality Train to the end of the line, especially above. I realize it though, and don’t want to come across like some of the other people that have had troll-ish panic attacks here this off-season.
by algorhythm on Dec 12, 2011 12:26 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Man, this thread.
Hermida is an interesting “buy low” guy. That’s it, that’s the entire point of this thread. Are people really that jaded by Ian Snell not panning out?
I think people suffer from Organizational Depth Fatigue.
We see a lot written about players who are “intriguing,” “potentially useful” or “fodder for the pile” rather than just plain “good.” I’m starting to grow weary of offeason strategies along the lines of “let’s throw Langerhans, Bradley, Cust and Kennedy at the wall and see what sticks.” This is not to criticize the contributors at Lookout Landing for bringing it up; it’s a function of where the organization stands.
by Suburban Shocker on Dec 12, 2011 10:05 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Jeremy Hermida is like the lesser version of Luke Scott for me
In that he’s always been a guy I would’ve liked the Mariners to acquire or take a flier on, but the Mariners have never done so.
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