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Should the M's bid on Yu Darvish after all?

I want to get something out of the way first. I don't care who owns the Mariners. We all know how those arguments go, and that isn't what I want to talk about.

Now that being said, I think the Mariners should seriously consider bidding on Yu Darvish.

For anyone who hasn't been paying attention, the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters posted Darvish last week and will be accepting bids from MLB teams for the rights to negotiate with him until Wednesday. Darvish has been the best pitcher in Japan over the last couple of years and last season he posted an ERA of 1.44 over 232 innings. He throws a 4-seam fastball in the mid 90s in addition to 5 or 6 other pitches depending on who you ask (presumably he will cut down his repertoire once he comes to the U.S.). He also has great control, walking only 36 batters last season while striking out 276. Most importantly in my opinion, Darvish is younger than most Japanese players who go through the posting process and will be entering his age 25 season this year (his birthday is in August).

Star-divide

So I guess what I'm getting at is that Darvish is pretty good (at least in Japan), but why do I think the M's should go after him? The obvious objection here is that starting pitching is not a weakness of the M's right now and a lot of people would rather see them pursue a bat like Prince Fielder if they are going to commit to a big time free agent. I don't disagree that the M's biggest weakness is their offense and that fixing that should be the ultimate goal but I think Darvish may provide the best possible opportunity to fix the offense and may be a uniquely good fit for the M's on top of it.

First, the Mariners are currently sitting on some excellent, young, starting pitching. With Felix and Pineda already in the Majors and guys like Danny Hultzen, James Paxton, and Taijuan Walker in the minors starting pitching is already the clear strength of the Mariners organization. By adding Darvish to that group the M's could put themselves in a very good position to pursue the bats they need by dealing some of that young pitching while still retaining enough to field one of the best rotations in the league. I personally become a lot less hostile to the idea of trading Pineda or Walker if the M's still have Darvish behind Felix.

The second reason I think Darvish could make sense here, as I've already eluded to, is his age. At 25, Darvish is only a few months younger than Felix. In addition to those two, much of the young core the M's have assembled over the last couple years are also entering their mid 20s. Smoak just turned 25, Carp is 25, Seager is 24, Ackley is about to turn 24, and Pineda is about to turn 23. If the Mariners can keep that core of players together (which would probably include giving Felix an enormous contract), add Darvish, and add another bat or two by dealing some of their young pitching prospects (possibly even Pineda) I think they have the potential to be a very good team in the near future as all of those players hit their primes at about the same time.

My biggest objection to signing Prince Fielder is that, even at 27, he may be past his prime by the time the rest of the Mariners' young talent reaches theirs, and the hitters who will be reaching free agency in the next couple years (when I think the M's will be at a better point in their rebuild to go after a big bat) are less than inspiring (although you never know for sure). Because of that, I think the best way for the M's to improve their offense is through trades. By going after Darvish, the M's could add an impact free agent, and set themselves up to improve the offense through the trade market.

Darvish is going to be expensive, possibly commanding a Dice-K like posting fee, plus a 5-6 year contract big enough to convince him to pass up the ~$10 million he would get in Japan next season (last month on FanGraphs, Dave Cameron estimated the total cost of posting fee+contract at around $120 million). Despite the high cost, I still like the M's going after Darvish because I think he is a free agent with the potential to have a major impact who also is a better fit for where the M's are in their rebuild than a guy like Fielder.

There hasn't been much linking the M's to Darvish, and most people seem to think he will wind up in Texas or Boston. Still, if Jack Z and his scouts think Darvish projects as a number 2 or 3 starter in MLB I hope they consider making a serious bid for him.

Thoughts?

Comment 144 comments  |  3 recs  | 

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I'd certainly like to have Darvish.

But the posting process is such crap that I’m not really getting my hopes up. Even if we want him and are willing to spend what it takes to get him, we may not be able to get him because we don’t know for sure what it takes to get him.

Doug Fister. :(

by Mothy on Dec 10, 2011 5:43 PM PST reply actions  

Yes.

/will read actual fanpost in a minute

by Eyeball Kid on Dec 10, 2011 6:27 PM PST reply actions  

I think he'd be a great fit,

But I’d much rather see them spend that money on Fielder or stash it away.
In my opinion the Mariners aren’t in a position to gamble that much money on a player with as many question marks as Darvish.

by BigR on Dec 10, 2011 6:36 PM PST reply actions  

Stash it away for what?

We have plenty of money coming off the books next year.

"You are the molders of their dreams." - Clark Mollenhoff

by EequalsMc2 on Dec 10, 2011 9:02 PM PST up reply actions  

The track record of Japanese starting pitchers isn't exactly great to say the least

Lots of pitchers have come over to the states and been in over their heads. If the M’s were to commit serious money to Darvish, I would hope that Jack and his scouts have gone over him with a fine toothed comb and be pretty damn sure he’s the real deal. Remember when people were proclaiming Daisuke Matsuzaka to be the next Nolan Ryan?

by Scrupio on Dec 10, 2011 6:55 PM PST reply actions  

Now that you mention it

I do remember that exact comparison being made.

Aaron Curry is the first Seahawk since Walter Jones to have a legitimate shot at Hall of Fame induction - John Morgan

by Fearless Frog on Dec 10, 2011 7:08 PM PST up reply actions  

Read this:

http://www.amazinavenue.com/2011/11/10/2553223/npb-in-the-mlb-a-historical-analysis-of-pitchers

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest | 1st place- 2012 AAOP Contest

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 16, 2011 5:22 PM PST up reply actions  

For me, it comes down to one thing.

Is his windup like Matsuzaka’s? Because that is annoying as shit to me. If he does, pass.

by Aussie Mariner on Dec 10, 2011 7:13 PM PST reply actions   6 recs

If we're going to spend $120M for 5-6 years of Darvish,

I’d just rather sign Fielder (even if it takes a little extra on top). There are just so many unknowns with Darvish; I don’t think our organization is in the position to make that big of a gamble. While Fielder has his own risks, he’s certainly more projectable as to what we would get out of him. I’m not saying we should sign him, just that if the cash outlay is similar for both, I would prefer Fielder.

by UW2010 on Dec 10, 2011 9:01 PM PST reply actions  

M's should absolutely post a bid on him

that bid should be what they think they ought to spend on him and not one penny more. Not what they think it will take to get him. Cause fuck that.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 10, 2011 9:04 PM PST reply actions  

Hmmm...
I don’t care who owns the Mariners.

But it is important, especially when discussing the ability TO acquire Japanese players. We have already learned that the Mariners Front Office, whether that be through the graces of the ownership or not, consider certain parts of our player payroll budget to be exempt from the standard player payroll budget. Thus, at least in consideration of the budget, the spending of money by the Mariners for the posting fee would be less of import than to other teams.

Maybe. We don’t know if other teams operate this way. But since we know the Mariners do, considering the ownership IS important.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Dec 10, 2011 9:05 PM PST reply actions  

How ownership handles the posting fee is important to the issue of how much the team should be willing to bid.

It is irrelevant, however, to the threshold question of whether or not pursuing him is a good baseball move for the organization. Really my point was just that I had no interest is getting into the discussions about how ownership may want the M’s to have a Japanese star now that Ichiro is declining that seem to pop up whenever Darvish is mentioned in relation to the Mariners since, first of all we don’t really know how ownership thinks about these things, and second, because I am just more interested in the baseball impact of Darvish than in how ownership may or may not treat Japanese players differently than other organizations because the owners are Japanese.

by wetzelcoal on Dec 10, 2011 9:49 PM PST up reply actions  

I care.

Because I want this franchise, as bad as it is, to stay in Seattle.

"You are the molders of their dreams." - Clark Mollenhoff

by EequalsMc2 on Dec 10, 2011 10:13 PM PST up reply actions  

I like the idea a lot, for the same reason you mentioned.

There simply aren’t a lot of impact bats at positions we need on the market this offseason. Prince Fielder is one, but there’s obviously a lot of flaws and risk there, and we’re not hurting for a bad defensive first baseman. I like the idea of trading from our pitching depth to acquire some hitters.

The debate around Darvish is obviously going to center around the posting fee and whether or not it factors into the team’s payroll or not. The reality is that no one on the internet knows how the Mariners handle their finances, and any claims related to posting fee and payroll is pure speculation. If the Mariners do decide to post an exorbitant bid for Darvish, then that by no means indicates the Mariners have spent all their available money.

If they choose to go after Darvish, I trust the Mariners know what they’re doing and how they’re going to fit him into the payroll. They obviously have a much better idea of their financial situation than anyone else.

by JLC on Dec 10, 2011 11:32 PM PST reply actions  

I think ensuring that the pitching is an elite strength should be a priority, especially after the moves Texas and Los Angeles have made to improve their offense.

Now, more than ever, the Mariners need need need pitching to even think about competing in this division. They aren’t going to outslug the Angels or the Rangers anytime soon, but if they can put together an elite rotation, they might not have to.

The artist formerly known as mattlock.

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by Matt Erickson on Dec 11, 2011 4:43 PM PST reply actions  

You! Divish!

"You are the molders of their dreams." - Clark Mollenhoff

by EequalsMc2 on Dec 11, 2011 9:34 PM PST up reply actions  

All you guys crack me up...

This is why Seattle fans are the best…even though we still support a piece of crap team

by ichirofan5197 on Dec 11, 2011 10:33 PM PST reply actions  

Darvish instead of Fielder?

I’m all for signing Darvish but I also want the M’s to sign Fielder. Your blind assumption is that the M’s are going to, in a year or two, be in a position to trade some package of Hultzen and/or Paxton or Pineda for a hitter of Fielder’s caliber is not necessarily true.

Further, the idea that you’re willing to spend $120 million for a player that’s never played a game in the Majors (and a pitcher, no less, a player likely to be more prone to serious injury) but you don’t want to spend that much (or a bit more) for the hitter that we need NOW.

My best guess is that Fielder signs for 7 years, $150 million. If Darvis costs $120 million, that’s probably a $70 million posting and a five-year deal for $10 mil a year.

It’s patently ridiculous for you to suggest that signing Darvish instead of Fielder is the way to go. If they sign both, they can contend in 2012. But wait, you’re going to tell me the the Mariners can’t afford both, aren’t you? Which is of course, based on the M’s telling their fans they can’y afford it, while they pocket the $60 mil a year in TV money from Root Sports.

by JWGS on Dec 11, 2011 11:18 PM PST reply actions  

Ohhhhhh

Thank you for putting the dash in “Nippon-Ham Fighters.” I always wondered why any self-respecting baseball team would want to call themselves the Ham Fighters.

Sincerely,

by Jeremariner on Dec 12, 2011 12:02 AM PST reply actions  

I am keen on Darvish.

I would like to see Zduriencik spin some sort of sneaky Darvish/Fielder thing this year, but if neither one happens, I’m not going to get bent about it. I also think it makes sense from a marketing point of view, but I also realize that marketing doesn’t win ball games. If they can swing both so much the better, but I’m not holding my breath for any of it. :/

by section331 on Dec 12, 2011 12:31 AM PST reply actions  

It's a moot question, because I suspect that the A's will make a whopping bid for Darvish and win negotiating rights.

But then they fail to come to terms and get their money back, but Darvish stays in Japan, and doesn’t go to Texas or Boston.

by daveinny on Dec 12, 2011 10:29 AM PST reply actions  

Because they did it last year.

And as far as I know there’s no penalty, that is, nothing in the rules which would prevent this, namely, the A’s blocking other teams from getting better.
(Well if we’re not getting him, more power to that strategy. Fuck the Rangers.)

by daveinny on Dec 13, 2011 8:21 AM PST up reply actions  

I would be surprised if this is a repeatable move

Even if there is no formal rule in the agreement that governs the posting system, I would imagine that the Commissioner’s office would discourage Oakland or any other team from repeatedly bidding in bad faith just to block other teams from acquiring posted players. (/Joke about commissioner’s office’s power over draft slotting goes here)

I’ve read conflicting things on the exact information that the NPB team receives after the closing of the four-day silent bidding, either that they are informed of all of the bids made during the auction (both team AND amount), that they receive the team and the amount that represents the highest bid only, or that they only receive the highest bid amount, and not the team. Can anyone point to a definitive answer?

Additionally (and probably related), if the NPB team knows all interested teams and their bids, I would imagine they have the latitude to select a bid other than the highest if they suspect that the highest bid was submitted in bad faith.

by pmc47 on Dec 13, 2011 8:56 AM PST up reply actions  

Can't be certain without doing some Google research, but I believe the posting team is informed of the winning bid, as well as the winning team.

Not that they would have to be informed of that — the way word gets around and leaks happen, it would be pretty much known who the winning team is. I’m pretty sure the posting system allows the Japanese team to accept the winning bid only, and are not informed of who else/how much were bid. Again, not that they wouldn’t be able to find that out anyway.

by nathaniel dawson on Dec 13, 2011 4:59 PM PST up reply actions  

So I got motivated enough to do that research I talked about

This is the agreement from 2000-2002, so it might be outdated. Probably not a whole lot different from anything in effect today, and seems to be corroborated by Jay’s Wikipedia link below. The Japanese team is informed of the winning bid amount only, not which team submitted it. They can only accept or reject that bid, and cannot accept (nor are informed of) any other bids.

I also uncovered an excellent thread by Derek at USSM reviewing the posting process and reminiscing on the Ichiro posting and signing, featuring a great chronology of newspaper articles compiled by msb.

by nathaniel dawson on Dec 13, 2011 6:29 PM PST up reply actions  

So because they've done it once, out of many past postings,

and even though there were conflicting reports on the matter,
and even though an unemotional examination of the known facts would indicate that the A’s did not bid in bad faith,

it’s still the most likely outcome to you?

by Matthew on Dec 13, 2011 9:52 AM PST up reply actions  

Fielder and Darvish

Tone it down?!!?? Wait, did I just walk into the “library” of Mariners blogs? No need for passion here folks. Sign Fielder, sign Darvish and remain relevant in your division. It’s pretty simple. The M’s have lost half their attendance in the last decade. Do they want those fans to come back or not?

by JWGS on Dec 12, 2011 11:04 AM PST reply actions  

Because signing Fielder and Darvish instantly fills all the holes on the team

And since they’ve both expressed interest in coming to Seattle and only Seattle, because a team that won 67 games last year is really appealing, we should be able to sign them both and still have money left over for a Pujols trade! Why they’d sell out every game!

by SuperDopaLiciousFunkStar on Dec 12, 2011 11:33 AM PST via mobile up reply actions  

re: Wait, did I just walk into the "library" of Mariners blogs?

In a way, yes. The analogy is bad because you shouldn’t talk in a library at all, but we do make an effort here to have discussions that are fact based, logical, and absent the ad-hominem spittle that is all over the rest of the web. If you aren’t interested in that you are best off not posting here.

Also, if you stop and think about it for a second, it’s pretty silly to question the passion of people who spend their free hours analyzing and writing about this team. If they had no passion for it, they’d probably do something more fun!

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 12, 2011 12:38 PM PST up reply actions  

Darvish was posted - he doesn't have to "choose" Seattle

If the M’s have the highest bid in the posting process, they’re the only team Darvish gets to negotiate with. He either signs with them or waits another year to come over when he’ll be a free agent. That leaves convincing Fielder and Boras and you do that with money (and giving them a glimpse into your plan for how you’re going to win sooner than later).

by JWGS on Dec 12, 2011 11:36 PM PST up reply actions  

Yes, the library of Mariners blogs

you know, the ones who had the Felix thread against the Mets, melt down every year during the draft and allow Robert to continually comment.

by seattlebruin on Dec 12, 2011 11:35 AM PST up reply actions  

What he's arguing is that based on the information we have it wouldn't be likely that the Mariners compete in 2012 with one or two extra players.

He’s arguing that if you sign Fielder (and Darvish too, if that’s even possible) it would still be unlikely to compete for a few years due to young players not being ready. By that time, Fielder would already be past his prime and not as much of a help as we would need him to be. He’s arguing that by signing Fielder you would essentially be signing a player to help you compete when it would be almost impossible to compete with him anyway. He’s saying that signing Darvish gives the front office a plethora of trade chips for down the road so they can get the extra pieces they need when their in-house players are ready.

You’re arguing that its asinine to sign a player like Darvish when the Mariners need more offense. You’re arguing that they have a bunch of extra money just lying around and that they could easily afford both and that they could bring more fans into the stadium by signing the two. You’re arguing that if they sign both they will be able to compete in 2012.

What I’m arguing is that Ackley is the only thing close to a “sure thing” they have on offense and even with him and Fielder it still be improbable for them to compete. I’m arguing that your argument is baseless, that you are just assuming they have tons of extra cash lying around and that you’re hoping for a best case scenario in which every player on the team bounces back and lives up to their full potential immediately. I’m arguing that your plan of attack is one that would likely end in failure because prospects don’t always pan out and that we should first have a good supporting cast before we go and sign huge free agents. Lastly, I’m also arguing that you are acting like a jackass in your comments.

by Robby The Kid on Dec 12, 2011 11:36 AM PST up reply actions   7 recs

You don't post here much, do you?

Not saying that I’m the shining beacon of an example on how to post, but judging on your five posts in almost two years of membership, you clearly either haven’t read the rules of the site or don’t understand how people here enteract with each other. Screaming and questioning fanhood isn’t exactly how things work here and if I were you I would infact “tone it down” and adhere to the standards of the community. Nobody here is going into your house and shitting all over the carpet, so try and avoid doing such here.

by Fuzz on Dec 12, 2011 3:40 PM PST up reply actions  

LIbrary (plural libraries)

1- An institution which holds books and/or other forms of stored information for use by the public or qualified people. It is usual, but not a defining feature of a library, for it to be housed in rooms of a building, to lend items of its collection to members either with or without payment, and to provide various other services for its community of users.

Yeah, that sounds about right. And it amazes me that someone would use a library, a place where people gather to learn and grow in knowledge, is being used as an insult.

M's fan newly relocated to SF My homepage

by lailaihei on Dec 12, 2011 4:06 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

I like the idea of acquiring Darvish

just from the point of view that Ichiro is coming towards the end of his career. I lived in Japan for 5 years, the Mariners have a huge following there because of Ichiro. Not just in merchandise either. Most people who have been to the US end up going to Seattle. It’s close in terms of distance, and it is also familiar to Japanese people because that is where Ichiro plays. Most Mariners games are broadcast on Japanese TV each morning, so Japan sort of wakes up to Seattle everyday.

What would become of this market if Ichiro is no longer on the team? I guarantee they won’t be showing Mariners games anymore. When Matsui was with the Yankees, it was a similar story. Always a Seattle and Yankees game, if they clashed one would be delayed. As soon as Matsui went to the A’s there was all of a sudden less Yankees games. Yes, there were still Yankees games because of all the Yankee fans all over, but instead we ended up seeing more A’s games. So no Ichiro = no Mariners games. No Mariners games = less exposure of Seattle and the Mariners to the Japanese public.

I’m not saying that Seattle should make a Matsuzaka like bid for Darvish, but I think they should make a good run of it. If they get outbid they get outbid. I just think there is a lot of non-baseball reasons to go after Darvish.

Oh, he is also a pretty good pitcher. I remember watching him at Koshien back in the early 00s.

by Kiwi Mariner on Dec 12, 2011 6:54 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

Guys I watched some highlights of Darivish today and now I really want him.

I feel like I laid out an ok rational argument in this fanpost, but seriously, I just want him on an emotional level now. If the M’s sign him I’m buying the northwest green jersey day 1.

by wetzelcoal on Dec 12, 2011 9:10 PM PST reply actions  

Yeah

He’s easily the free agent I would like for the Mariners to obtain the most. Plus 6 Aces!

by SuperDopaLiciousFunkStar on Dec 13, 2011 10:53 AM PST via mobile up reply actions  

I've never understood how the budget that the bid comes out of affects the payroll...

If it’s not at all (as I’ve often heard), then I think a Darvish contract could be a downright steal. If it does affect payroll, then he’s not so much of a steal.

Either way, a massive risk and it’s gonna make me nervous as hell if it happens (even though I buy into the hype).

by AndrewMcQ on Dec 13, 2011 1:02 AM PST reply actions  

We could also theoretically deal Vargas away to open up some payroll space

And maybe get a role player back (like Seth Smith? Damn you, Jeff).

by AndrewMcQ on Dec 13, 2011 1:06 AM PST up reply actions  

I have read (in the grand salami magazine) that the money for the Ichiro posting was required to come out of money for the signing of future draft picks

Thus leading to some of the poor draft philosophy that came in the following few drafts, where an emphasis was made on finding people who would sign below slot. I have never read any admissions from people actually in the front office, but given the statements and actions of the early 2000’s management, I would not find it surprising. However, if that same (dumb) philosophy was applied to this posting, it could have dramatic negative impacts on the future mariners.

by themanleyman on Dec 13, 2011 12:35 PM PST up reply actions  

Nobody outside the Mariners front office really knows such things.

It was reported that the Ichiro bid money came from Nintendo or Yamauchi himself, but I’m not sure anyone knows this for a fact. And they may not approach a Darvish bid in the same way they did with Ichiro. We have no idea if the bid money would come out of payroll, some other fund, or the owners own pocket.

by nathaniel dawson on Dec 13, 2011 5:52 PM PST up reply actions  

Having seen that his windup is not at all like Dice-K...

…Then it seems like a good idea so long as the posting fee isn’t coming from the payroll budget. Even if for nothing else than maintaining the link to Japan post Ichiro.
Plus I’d much rather see Vargas as #4 or #5 in the rotation, rather than #3.

by Aussie Mariner on Dec 13, 2011 3:41 AM PST reply actions  

Jeff Passan of Yahoo says Mariners may be a darkhorse.

“The source said Darvish’s preference is to play for a team on the West Coast, and one source pegged the Mariners as a darkhorse candidate, especially if they worry the price for Fielder will become prohibitive.”

I don’t know Passan, so I don’t know if he is particularly reliable.

Interesting at least

by WestCoastBias. on Dec 13, 2011 11:56 AM PST reply actions  

Preference doesn't really matter.

Whoever wins the bid, wins the bid.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Dec 13, 2011 1:05 PM PST up reply actions  

Wait, could the team decide to accept a lower offer as the winning bid?

Or are they contractually obligated to accept the highest offer. Otherwise it could be possible that they take the players wishes into account if the bids are close…

by themanleyman on Dec 13, 2011 1:20 PM PST up reply actions  

Do you have a source for that?

Because I’m looking up this article (WARNING: WIKIPEDIA) and it says that the posting process is basically blind, the team being informed of the highest dollar amount and then being asked to accept or reject it before the team is even revealed.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Dec 13, 2011 1:35 PM PST up reply actions  

Ok, if I'm honest with myself, I think I actually would like to see him here

Didn’t realize how much I’d actually like to see him here until I noticed how much I’ve been looking for Darvish news since the deadline passed.

by Chris_FB on Dec 14, 2011 4:04 PM PST reply actions  

This stuff is always exciting.

I’m going through the same thing as early in winter meetings with Fielder, I’m really excited for a shot at Darvish, even though it might not be a particularly good idea.

The Chicago Cubs was confirmed to have submitted a bid, I guess if anyone is to get him, from a bring Fielder’s cost down perspective would be to have him go to the Cubs or the Rangers.

by WestCoastBias. on Dec 14, 2011 4:28 PM PST up reply actions  

Per Olny's twitter

“One executive also mentioned Giants, Mariners as possible heavy bidders for Darvish. We’ll see.”

So I guess so.

by WestCoastBias. on Dec 14, 2011 7:13 PM PST up reply actions  

Oops, that is correct.

I was just trying to confirm that Olny did mention it, my bad there.

by WestCoastBias. on Dec 14, 2011 7:45 PM PST up reply actions  

I wish they would just make the anouncement.

You have to think his Japanese team had some idea of what they would accept before they even got the bid.

by wetzelcoal on Dec 14, 2011 7:54 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm waiting for the inevitable Twitter explosion that will result in an LL meltdown of sorts.

"Why ask a failed romance to come see your successful one? You know, it's like inviting the Seattle Mariners to a World Series game. It's just weird for everyone."

by Slurvey on Dec 14, 2011 8:15 PM PST reply actions  

Yu Darvish: Blue Jay?
@Evan_P_Grant
The “buzz” is that Toronto had whopper of offer on Darvish. Many reasons for Jays to bid more than $50mm. Believe Rangers bid. Prob. in $40s
4 hours ago via TweetDeck

Twitter

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Dec 15, 2011 11:38 AM PST reply actions  

I see him signing a 6 year deal for about $80-90 million.

Which means the cost to a team that bids $50m and signs him is something like $22m per, extremely frontloaded.

M's fan newly relocated to SF My homepage

by lailaihei on Dec 15, 2011 11:48 AM PST up reply actions  

Based on the way these rumors have been coming out.

It seems to me they are probably coming from individual teams rather than the mlb office if they have any legitimate basis at all. And even if the Jays did put up a “whopper” bid around $50 mil that doesn’t mean that the Nats or Ms didn’t put one in for $51.

by wetzelcoal on Dec 15, 2011 11:51 AM PST up reply actions  

Did the M's officially post a bid?

I haven’t heard any actual word that we did so. I assume we did and probably put a fairly competitive one in (or what we assumed was competitive – since it’s blind). But i haven’t seen any reports speculating on what we actually did.

Is there any reason MLB teams wouldn’t just say what they bid now that it doesn’t really matter/sway other bidders?

by BennyGStein on Dec 16, 2011 10:43 AM PST up reply actions  

This is really the issue right now.

It seems clear that the Jays put in a big bid, and the Rangers put in a large but not as large bid. Similarly we know with a fair degree of certainty that several teams did not bid, like the Giants and A’s. There remains, however, several teams that we have no clue what they did or did not do, most notably the M’s and Nats. All the reports floating around now that the Jays won because they put in a huge bid are meaningless until we find out what the other teams did. Even if the Jays bid $54 million that doesn’t matter if the Nats or M’s bid $55. In the end I think we will be stuck waiting until Tuesday to find out what is going on since the M’s front office has always been good at avoiding leaks and I doubt anyone from the Commissioner’s office (the only people who actually know who won) are going to talk either.

by wetzelcoal on Dec 16, 2011 11:08 AM PST up reply actions  

Is this something a beat writer should be able to know?

Again, I don’t know why all this would be a secret after the bidding is closed and it seems like one of our beat writers could dig up our offer easily if they wanted to.

Or perhaps there is some procedural thing where out of respect to the Japanese league/team, bids aren’t disclosed?

Anyway, it seems odd that anyone can be a favorite when all the information isn’t out there.

by BennyGStein on Dec 16, 2011 1:51 PM PST up reply actions  

Its kind of a weird situation.

First off, the Japanese team hasn’t accepted the bid, but in all likely hood they will accept no matter who it is from. I think the more likely explanation of why he haven’t heard anything regarding the M’s is just that this is how they handle everything. This is a front office that rarely leaks any information about what they are doing until it is done and I’d guess they are treating this the same way they would treat any other possible move even though they don’t necessarily have to.

The real take away I guess is that we just have to wait for an official announcement, and anyone saying one particular team is the favorite is probably either misinterpreting the information, or trying to make it look like they know more than they actually do.

by wetzelcoal on Dec 16, 2011 2:15 PM PST up reply actions  

I demand answers!

How am I supposed to stay entertained!

I need me some free agent signees!

by BennyGStein on Dec 16, 2011 2:18 PM PST up reply actions  

That is what I have taken from all the talk about this.

To make it more interesting, they should turn it into a Japanese style game show where the GMs that want to bid have to run through an obstacle course and each checkpoint along the way equals a $10MM bid.

by d0nkey on Dec 16, 2011 3:19 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Jack's (kinda) from Milwaukee.

A guy from Milwaukee did pretty well on this Japanese game show.

No matter where you go, there you are.

by KC Mariner on Dec 16, 2011 3:30 PM PST up reply actions  

Side note

I’m surprised the Mariners weren’t in on Buehrle. They want a veteran presence in the rotation. The guy pitches 200+ innings every year. Works fast. Is a good fielder. Maybe a bit pricey – but I think he would have been worth it. Maybe we didn’t want the years he wanted.

Obviously I don’t know if Buehrle would have any interest playing for us. Maybe we did kick the tires, but that news never came out. But it seemed like a guy that would have been worth trying for and we seem to be linked to everyone else.

by BennyGStein on Dec 16, 2011 5:45 PM PST reply actions  

Better them than the Rangers.

I’d rather it be the M’s but that feels unlikely.

by Eyeball Kid on Dec 17, 2011 5:50 PM PST up reply actions  

I just don't want

For all the people who’ve spent the last days reporting the “Blue Jays make large bid” rumors as “Blue Jays make largest bid” to wind up being right, because then they won’t learn anything.

by wetzelcoal on Dec 17, 2011 6:24 PM PST up reply actions  

The Rangers are going to win the bidding

Toronto’s bid said to be 40-50 million which is below the record bid of 51.1million. Yankees/Cubs seem not too interested. We don’t know Rangers bid but apparently they scouted Darvish a ton and they have a lot of money. The signs in my head are pointing toward them unfortunately.

by KTown029 on Dec 18, 2011 12:07 AM PST reply actions  

No, obviously the Mariners will win, and the bid amount is your clue

51 million. 51 = Ichiro. Darvish is the replacement for Ichiro as Japanese face of the franchise.

by Chris_FB on Dec 19, 2011 10:42 AM PST up reply actions  

Darvish bid winner is supposed to be announced today, Monday 12/19

About 5 or 6pm PST.

I’d like it to be not-Rangers. Wouldn’t be sad if it were Toronto or Chicago. Could get behind it if it was M’s.

by Chris_FB on Dec 19, 2011 10:58 AM PST reply actions  

Given that the Mariners have barely been linked to him at all...

and that a large section of the fanbase badly wants offense, I think people would flip out if we won the bid. So I’m for it.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Dec 19, 2011 11:11 AM PST up reply actions  

If it's really $50m+ and we have to give him a 5 year, $70m contract...

Even so. It’s fucking Yu Darvish and I would be stoked.

M's fan newly relocated to SF My homepage

by lailaihei on Dec 19, 2011 11:44 AM PST up reply actions  

It also means we could trade someone.

I’d prefer to keep Pineda, because irrationality, but if Darvish provides us with the surplus to trade him or someone else off for shiny objects, so be it.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Dec 19, 2011 12:54 PM PST up reply actions  

Or we could just have a rotation of Felix, Darvish, Pineda, Hultzen, Paxton, and Walker.

6-man rotation means they’re all going to pitch even better! And then we could trade Vargas for Eli Whiteside or something.

M's fan newly relocated to SF My homepage

by lailaihei on Dec 19, 2011 1:19 PM PST up reply actions  

The news is pretty hilarious.

No one mentions the Mariners pretty much at all and everyone assumes the Blue Jays are the winners.

The Rangers supposedly don’t have a ton of money to spend (although i don’t know those reports are accurate). The blue jays supposedly spent in the 40-50 range. And the bid supposedly was higher than Dice-K’s, which was $51 million.

So with all those supposedlies, perhaps the mariners did place a big secretive bid that was higher than all those.

by BennyGStein on Dec 19, 2011 11:48 AM PST up reply actions  

Maybe!

Jon Heyman seems to speculate a bit that Blue Jays didn’t get it. More fodder while we wait!

Linkage!

by BennyGStein on Dec 19, 2011 4:28 PM PST up reply actions  

It could happen, too.

If you believe every rumor, we still only “know” how much some other teams bid. If the Mariners bid $75 mil and were tight-lipped about it, we would have no idea the Mariners won until the announcement.

M's fan newly relocated to SF My homepage

by lailaihei on Dec 19, 2011 2:38 PM PST up reply actions  

The good news is

The AL West is in the news, being very active, and everyone is talking about it

by Craptastic-J on Dec 19, 2011 9:41 PM PST reply actions  

And there is still hope Darvish doesn't sign.

People really need to whisper in his ear how bullshit the posting process is and remind him he can help change it if he refuses to sign with Texas

by Craptastic-J on Dec 19, 2011 9:43 PM PST up reply actions  

Just whisper in his ear that Nolan Ryan will cut short his career by several years, by making him pitch his goddamned arm off

When he learned the Rangers won the bid, Darvish should have felt an involuntary twinge in his throwing shoulder, if he knows who Nolan Ryan is at all.

by Chris_FB on Dec 19, 2011 10:57 PM PST up reply actions  

Guaranteed

If I see Yu Darvish in the next month I’m whispering all kinds of “devil shoulder” things into his ear.

Including the history of Nolan Ryan, unabridged

by Craptastic-J on Dec 19, 2011 11:31 PM PST up reply actions  

I think we should.

Seems like a good investment. Go for it M’s!

by BennyGStein on Dec 21, 2011 10:50 AM PST reply actions  

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