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Understanding Mike Carp

In a season such as the one the Mariners just had, you usually see a lot of young and/or inexperienced players get a lot of playing time. Sometimes this is out of necessity, but other times - most of the times - it's because the team wants to get a better idea of what each player could provide going forward. The team wants to figure out what each player is.

One of the funny things about Mike Carp is his face. One of the other funny things about Mike Carp is that he came to the plate more than 300 times last season, and still he's kind of a difficult guy to figure out. As often as he wound up playing, he remains something of an unknown.

And I imagine this is because he's put together almost a step function of a career. He emerged as a first baseman who could draw a walk, but who didn't hit for enough power. He's since turned into a 1B/OF who can hit for power, but who might not draw enough walks. Carp stopped being one thing and turned into another thing, and that can make for a tricky player to understand.

Carp's an important player for the Mariners to understand. If they think they really have something, then Carp is a powerful bat they can put in the middle of the order for the low low price of a Koenigsegg CCX (ed. note: perspective!). If they don't think they really have something, then he's expendable, and that's just another need for the roster.

It was while talking about Carp with Matthew over the weekend that something occurred to me. Something that might make him a little easier to wrap your head around. I don't know if this will do the trick for you, but it did the trick for me, I think.

Carp, now, has an aggressive approach at the plate. He swings at a lot of strikes, and he swings at a lot of balls. He swings hard, and he frequently whiffs, sticking in the lower tier when it comes to making contact. His contact, though, is forceful, giving him extra-base power to all fields. He's definitely more of a slugger than any other type of hitter. He doesn't run that well and his defense isn't remarkable in any of the good ways, but he is capable of playing the corner outfield, in that he's not incapable of it.

That's my understanding of present day Mike Carp, and that description doubles as an approximation of Nelson Cruz.

Obviously, there are differences. For one thing, Carp bats lefty, while Cruz bats righty. Cruz seems a bit stronger, and he has a history of stolen bases and positive defensive ratings, although he's never looked good to the eye and God only knows what toll all those leg injuries have had on his movement. Cruz gets hurt all the time, and he always seems to hurt the same one or two things.

But I see more similarities than differences. And before you call me crazy for comparing Mike Carp to a superstar, it's worth considering Cruz's career to date:

Home: .306/.367/.576
Road: .236/.293/.432

Hey look, it's a guy who's had success hitting in Texas. Cruz is a fine hitter, but his numbers have obviously been inflated by his environment, to the point where he's thought to be better than he is. Cruz isn't a superstar. He's a power-hitting support piece.

And Carp, I think, is ready to be a power-hitting support piece. I doubt he'll ever be more than that, but he can contribute at the Major League level, which is progress from where he was before. Mike Carp is just 25 years old, and it seems to me he could start.

In Mike Carp, I think the Mariners have a starter, and a starter with some degree of flexibility. He's not a starter to whom the Mariners have made any long-term commitment, and they might choose to go in another direction, but for the time being, he looks like one answer on a team that needs a lot more of them.

Comment 28 comments  |  2 recs  | 

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Well, of course "Mike Carp falls over to make a catch".

a big red arrow has just hit him in the butt.

by msb on Nov 8, 2011 11:16 AM PST reply actions   7 recs

He's a comic book hero and he's shooting laser beams out of his ass

I’m trying to make lemonade with these lemons, work with me here

by Kermit. on Nov 8, 2011 4:30 PM PST up reply actions  

Wouldn't that be 'He is so dense that he has bent light'

Or maybe it’s because he is a Daywalker… they interact with light in mysterious ways I here.

He is a ginger right? I’m actual not sure now as I type this.

I took a shortcut through Iceberg Alley...

by reign133 on Nov 8, 2011 7:01 PM PST up reply actions  

He will improve his OF defense this offseason.

Maybe I’m overly optimistic, but I like his eyes. He has good eyes. He has the eyes of someone who would work hard at something he isn’t really good at, but has to be good at to be included.

by Ackfan on Nov 8, 2011 11:27 AM PST reply actions  

Can the M's get special permission to put Mike Carp in a Koenigsegg CCX when he plays left field?

0 to 60 in 3 seconds, that should be enough to let Guti shade center-right a bit.

Thanks for making me google it. Pretty car.

by Chris_FB on Nov 8, 2011 11:42 AM PST reply actions  

Make it an Ariel Atom

better visibility and and open top so he can catch the ball when he gets there.

Dave Krieg!

by Pebohead on Nov 8, 2011 1:05 PM PST up reply actions  

Z raved about Carp's willingness to better himself to play ball

And wants all his minor kids to use Carp as a role model on how to win a spot for the Mariners.

If just to make that message clear, I don’t see Carp being moved out of the line-up in 2012 barring injury.

by valencia on Nov 8, 2011 11:51 AM PST reply actions  

If Carp really shows up as power hitting support piece for all of 2012, I will be very, very satisfied.

And I do truly love how a piece on Mike Carp and his funny looking face also contained multiple insults to Nelson Cruz.

by sanford_and_son on Nov 8, 2011 12:26 PM PST reply actions  

It would be pretty cool if 2012 Mike was a combination of new and old Mike.

Retain the power stroke and develop better selection. If the Angels can trade for Vernon Wells, anything in the world is possible.

by PackBob on Nov 8, 2011 1:18 PM PST reply actions  

Not much of a jersey man

but I will be picking up a seafood special this off-season.

by Omerta on Nov 8, 2011 1:29 PM PST reply actions  

I think there are two major questions regarding Mike Carp

One is whether or not the power surge will manifest at the major league level and the other is the strikeouts/contact rate. I’m not too concerned about the strikeouts since his K% in the minors changed little after Carp’s power surge in 2010-2011 at AAA and his contact rate improved over the last few weeks in the majors last season. Whether or not Carp can show Nelson Cruz-type power in the majors is the larger question.

I think a good median approximation for Mike Carp is someone like Eric Hinske. Average to maybe slightly above average BB%, ~20-23 K%, and about a .200 ISO with some not so great defense in the corner OF. I think Carp is better against lefties than Hinske, but otherwise the comparison works. If Carp’s power manages to reach Nelson Cruz levels, then that certainly makes him a more attractive everyday option for us.

by JLC on Nov 8, 2011 1:31 PM PST reply actions  

Personally, I think a bigger issue is what his true BABIP talent level is

The .343 BABIP in the Majors would be a career high except for the .361 number that he put this year in AAA. Considering his career BABIP in the minors looks to be around .300-.310(a rough estimation), I think it would be hard to sustain anything at that level. He also is hardly fast on the basepaths. If you adjust his BA for a lower BABIP, he becomes almost a replacement level player when taking into account his below average defence.

I am less worried about the power considering he is entering the typical perceived physical prime. His ISO in AAA over the past 3 years is well over .200 which gives some credence to suggest a .190-.200 ISO in the majors is sustainable.

by tdot mariner fan on Nov 8, 2011 2:17 PM PST up reply actions  

But isn't the point, that he changed...

… his approach? Which might mean that his old numbers, including BABIP, are no longer quite so applicable. The old Carp wasn’t a major league player. Then the New Carp happened, but over a sample size small and variable enough to suggest different interpretations, one of which is that his improvement is a mirage. I think he’s figured something out, maybe because of his weight loss and strength gain, and that even more improvement is possible, but that’s just me…

by flightrisk on Nov 8, 2011 2:44 PM PST up reply actions  

The only problem is that even .330 is a rather high BABIP to hope for

It is possible but unlikely in my opinion. Since 2002, only 3 1B averaged a .330 BABIP according to Fangraphs. Todd Helton is has 60+ fWar while Joey Votto and Miquel Cabrera also both look to reach that level if they don’t decline rapidly. I don’t think they are great comparisons.

There are quite a few more from .310-.330, but most are not great comparisons also. The best comps would be Billy Butler or Eric Hosmer in terms of approach and scouting reports I think.

If you expand the list to Corner OFs, you get quite a few more players that are borderline HOF talent or project to be 50+ fWar players at the least. Several of these players are/were also very fast such as Carl Crawford, Abreu, and Ichiro

You also have to ask if his 24.8 % line drive rate is sustainable, something I am skeptical of and probably what partially fueled his high BABIP. In that same time period, only Todd Helton, Michael Young, Joey Votto, and Joe Randa(really?) sustained a line drive rate around 24 % or higher. It would be easier to believe him sustaining this rate if he was using the same line-drive hitting approach from earlier in his minor league career but now seems less probable.

by tdot mariner fan on Nov 8, 2011 3:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Right, but don't forget that those line drives won't necessarily turn into ground balls.

They may turn into fly balls, which would presumably increase his home run output. It’s possible for his line drive rate to go down further and for him to actually be more valuable.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Nov 8, 2011 5:06 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, I'm an optimist on Carp

That’s mostly because I thought the M’s had given up on him too soon, and then he redeemed that judgment, seemingly, last season. I don’t think there are great comps for Carp right now, just because it’s hard to figure out who he is. (Actually, I think the same thing about Butler and Hosmer, especially Hosmer. It seems as though Butler will hit more HRs than he does now, going forward, and Hosmer is so young, I can’t tell what his defining features will be.)

I don’t think Carp’s BABIP is sustainable. His LD%? Again, if you think he “changed,” then you might think it will be higher than his minor league numbers suggested. Maybe I’m unduly influenced by his physical transformation, so I’m in that camp. But I totally understand the other argument. If he’d had a 24% LD rate throughout his professional career, we wouldn’t be having this discussion; we’d just be enjoying watching him rake.

by flightrisk on Nov 9, 2011 9:11 AM PST up reply actions  

But can he stick in LF?

Because we’ve got a regal solution at DH coming.

by _Hutch_ on Nov 8, 2011 3:00 PM PST reply actions  

Thank you for that.

Seriously. Thank you for saving this subthread.

by thehemogoblin on Nov 8, 2011 7:45 PM PST up reply actions  

And to think I was lamenting the death of the Swedish automobile industry

How could I have forgotten Koenigsegg!?

Determined, Jonesing Commentor

by Corco on Nov 8, 2011 5:52 PM PST reply actions  

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