Why the Mariners Shouldn't Avoid Prince Fielder

So consider this me playing devil's advocate. The post before me offered some reasons as to why the Mariners should not sign Prince Fielder, and this post is merely the opposite. I offer only a few disclaimers.

1.) I am not so entrenched to believe that if the Mariners do not sign Prince Fielder that they did something wrong.

2.) This is not at all meant to be argumentative towards the post prior to me, only trying to foster some conversation.

3.) The poll at the end is really not supposed to be Rosterbating, but it probably is, and if it is, I apologize, it's just a point i see coming up a lot.

Now, the big guy, Prince Fielder. There are many reasons that the Mariners should be wary of a guy like Prince. First off, he's large, which can be good, as it puts one thusly in charge. But it can also be bad, because we all know fat people can't run anymore once they hit 30. 

Fat = Bad

Secondly, We have Smoak, and we have Carp, both of whom could possible hover anywhere from 1-4 WAR next year, 4 being my best case holy shit scenario for Smoak, but I think a 2 win season from either player wouldn't surprise anyone, which then begs the question, how much are we really getting from Fielder? He's a great player, but at the end of the day, he'll probably give you anywhere from 3-7 WAR, lets say he gives you 5 WAR and has a great season, you're essentially adding a ton of payroll and getting a net gain of about 3 WAR if you replace either smoak or carps production with fielder. 

Taking AB's away from Carp or Smoak (most likely Carp) = Kinda Bad

Thirdly, we have Felix, who is making 58 million dollars over the next three years (not 100% on that figure, but too lazy to google it) This is bad because even though its a great deal, it makes throwing 20+ million dollars at any other player difficult to do with a payroll that will hover around 85-115 million over the last decade.

Cost = Bad

 

Now, without further ado, the good. The delicious cream filled good.

First, DINGERS, holy crap does anyone remember what a home run looks like? This guys hits a lot of fucking Home Runs. I capitalized Home Runs because he hits so God Damned many of them. But in all seriousness, a healthy Justin Smoak should give you in my opinion, 22 +/- 3 dingers. Anywhere from 19-25 home runs from Justin Smoak, and I won't be impressed or disapointed. If he hits 15, thats a bummer, if he hits 30, I'm going to be mad we spent all that money on the fat guy who's hitting .220 and laughing at us. But I believe there is room for Carp Smoak Fielder and Wells in this lineup, I really don't think its reasonable to expect all three of the young guys to be contributing at a high level, So i say you let Wells and Carp fight over Left field, and you let Carp and Smoak fight over Designated Hitter. Realistically, you'll get 1100-1300 AB's out of LF and DH over the season, and i think 400 AB's for Smoak,Carp,and Wells is not bad if you just take away at bats from whoever is doing the worst.

So, Dingers = AWESOME

Second, Fielder is really good guys, like, holy shit, he's really good. And he's FUCKING 27! Here's a hypothetical situation, we don't sign Prince Fielder, we save our money, Ichiro's money comes off the books next year, or he extends at a more reasonable rate, and we head into the 2012 off-season with a shitload of money to spend. What on earth are we going to do with it, we could always add payroll through awesome trades, Votto may be available, and we could trade and extend him, but in any trade, we're going to have to give up more than just a ton of cash extending the guy, we'll also have to give up great prospects, and fuck that, prospects are basically lottery tickets, and who in America doesn't like to gamble? 

The point of this section is that the 2013 free agent class is GOD AWFUL. The best players available are Right handed catcher Mike Napoli, who will be 31, and hits in a little kids park right now. And Josh Hamilton, who, lets face it, is going to be 32 years old and incredibly expensive. There is a ton of great starting pitching available next offseason, but as far as position players, its complete garbage, anyone thats even worth looking at is already 30+ years old. Prince Fielder could be a very good player for the next five seasons. The key word being could. Eventually this club could be one player away from playoff contention, we can get a 27 year old player who if it takes us 2 seasons to be ready to compete, hey look hes 29 years old now, and he'll be mashing dingers in the middle of our order, I only fear that if this club needs that big bat next year, there won't be any around, and if there are, they are going to be incredibly scarce.

Age = Great

Quality of Player = Great

Okay, I know I've rambled a ton, and I want to thank anyone who took time to read this, I want to end with a poll though. I think most of the visceral reactions against signing Fielder came from the fact that Boras is asking for 20 years and 500 million dollars. I mean, of course he's asking for an absolute truckload of money, but lets consider all the teams that can spend with the mariners but are not going to be bidding for Fielder at all:

The Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Brewers, Mets, Phillies, Tigers, White Sox, Cardinals, Twins, and Braves. 

 

That leaves only four other teams as realistic landing spots for Prince, 

The Rangers, Angels, Cubs, and Marlins.

I'm not going to get into why each club may or may not sign him, but I think the point is, we're not going to see a huge bidding war where fielder gets 8 years and 200 million dollars. The Marlins don't have THAT much money to spend, The angels have been stupid with their money lately, and the Rangers don't really need to upgrade their offense anymore. I think the Cubs are the most realistic landing spot for Fielder, but who knows? Not me, thats who.

At the end of the day, I think everyone will be pissed if the Mariners give Prince Fielder anything greater than or equal to 25 million per season, And I think everyone will be pleased if they give him 15 million per season. Of course everyone would be please, that would be amazing. So my poll is aimed at seeing where everyone's sweet spot is. What is your upper limit? 

So i offer up this poll, and i'm going to try and keep it from being Rosterbatory but i can't help it, feel free to flame me in the comments if it bothers you that I'm posting this. Let's assume that Fielder signs a 7 year contract with his next team for no reason whatsoever. If he is going to be here for 7 years . . .

Poll

What is the Highest Dollar amount per season that you would respond "I am okay with the Mariners making this deal"

42%

< 21 Million per season

126 votes

13%

21 Million

39 votes

19%

22 Million

57 votes

10%

23 Million

31 votes

7%

24 MIllion

21 votes

8%

>24 Million

26 votes

300 votes | Poll has closed