Michael Pineda, Dustin Ackley Combine For Zero Rookie Of The Year Awards
As I'm sure most of you are already aware, earlier today the Baseball Writers' Association of America announced its winners of the 2011 Rookie of the Year awards. The American League winner was not Michael Pineda or Dustin Ackley, nor was it expected to be, given Pineda's second half and Ackley's arrival in the middle of June. This story is such a priority for me that I'm writing about it now even though the winners were announced at 11 in the morning, and even though writing about baseball is my job. Still, I might as well address it with some words, but not too many of them.
Pineda finished fifth in the voting, with zero first-place votes. Ackley finished sixth in the voting, with one first-place vote. Mark Trumbo finished second in the voting, with more first-place votes* than he had walks in April, June, July, or September.
* five
Why this is good news
This isn't really good news, and there's not a convincing case to be made that it is, but you could argue that Pineda or Ackley might have cost the Mariners more down the road had one of them won the award. It's just another thing that the player would've had on his resume, and just another thing the player's agent might have brought up to try and get more money. Now we don't have to worry about that, not that any one of us was worrying about that.
Why this is bad news
Well it would've been nice to see a Mariner win the award, especially given that both Pineda and Ackley were deserving. Pineda finished tops among AL rookies in Fangraphs' WAR, while Ackley tied for second. Pineda broke camp with the roster and pitched his ass off for most of the season, and the RoY would've been neat recognition for both him and the organization. Additionally, the voting results suggest that the BBWAA is still married to ERA and W/L, which, okay, future awards.
Why this is irrelevant news
It's the Rookie of the Year, which is an individual award, and I don't even think Pineda or Ackley are too broken up over the results given that I doubt either expected to win. Furthermore, the Rookie of the Year voting is done based on past results, rather than on projected future results, and it's those projected future results we really care about. It's also those projected future results that allow Pineda and Ackley to stand out.
Jeremy Hellickson won the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year, but his numbers do not project that well for the future. Mark Trumbo finished second, but his numbers do not project that well for the future. Pineda and Ackley's numbers project very well for the future. Pineda is a high-strikeout, low-walk starting pitcher, while Ackley is an on-base second baseman with some power and average-to-plus defense.
Nevermind the award voting; in Michael Pineda and Dustin Ackley, the Seattle Mariners graduated two of 2011's best-looking rookies when it comes to future value. That's what's really important. This past season, Michael Pineda and Dustin Ackley established themselves as members of the Mariners' core. This is a developing core that could eventually take the Mariners to great heights.
Congratulations to Jeremy Hellickson on winning himself some hardware. The unattractive young man posted an impressively low ERA that was only in part due to a terrific team defense behind him. I'm happy with our guys.
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Ah come on, do you have to pick on the guy's looks?
Mike Carp’s too, while we’re at it. Pineda isn’t all that handsome either, you know? Luckily his pitches are.
"Perhaps the worst comment I've ever seen on LL." - sanford_and_son.
by Ride the Apocalypse on Nov 14, 2011 6:00 PM PST reply actions
In fairness to Hellickson
He had a 9.7 swinging strike % in 2011, 24th among qualified starters (Pineda is of course first). His K/9 of 5.57 probably doesn’t reflect his true whiffing ability.
Hellickson also was arguably the better prospect at the start of 2011
and rated higher in the past. I think it might be a bit unfair to say a pitcher that was rated as having 3 potential above average pitches as having less potential than Pineda. He also has an equally strong if not stronger minor league statistical track record that is longer than Pineda’s. Finally, he has no prolonged absence due to injury either.
Without a doubt, his stock has diminished this year with the lower than expected strikeout rate and increase in walks. However, in my mind, he still easily has top of the rotation potential.
I should say, I do not mean to nitpick on one point of the article that is tangental to your main point, but the statement “won the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year, but his numbers do not project that well for the future” chafes with me for some reason.
by tdot mariner fan on Nov 14, 2011 8:27 PM PST up reply actions
Pineda has a K/9 rate over 9,
Hellicksons was under Doug Fister
by Aesop on Nov 14, 2011 8:47 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I would not take 1 year of MLB experience to reverse an entire minor league and scouting track record,
especially a rookie season. I am not saying that Pineda has a worse future than Hellickson, just that I think there is reason to believe in Hellickson having top of the rotation potential still. Pineda’s lack of a refined change-up and low GB rate create some reason to believe Pineda will take a step back just as Hellickson’s minor league strikeout rate and previous scouting reports give hope that he will improve. I guess I am saying that after only 1 year, one cannot encompass their futures in their respective MLB numbers.
by tdot mariner fan on Nov 14, 2011 9:21 PM PST up reply actions
I think the real key here
Is that no matter how good or bad Hellickson is in the future, he will always end his career with 1 more ROY award than Pineda and Ackley combined
by Punkhazard on Nov 15, 2011 12:33 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
In Hellickson's defense
He did pitch in the AL East. FIP doesn’t factor that in.
He also got to pitch against Baltimore 4 times, Minesotta twice, Seattle 3 times, and Cleveland, Disney Land, and Kansas City once each.
If my math is correct, that is 12 starts against mediocre at best offenses. He also made a grand total of 8 starts against the world beating Yankees and BoSox.
Point is, it really averages out in the end. In fact, Felix pitched 6 times against New York and Boston and he wasn’t even in the same division. This is of course not counting the Rays but I think you get the point
"Tell my tale to those who ask. Tell it truly, the ill deeds along with the good and let me be judged accordingly. The rest is silence." ~ Dinobot
by beastwarking on Nov 14, 2011 10:54 PM PST up reply actions
Quality of batters faced can be checked
Hellickson wasn’t significantly more stressed than Pineda. Couple runs worth.
Curse you and your berevity!
"Tell my tale to those who ask. Tell it truly, the ill deeds along with the good and let me be judged accordingly. The rest is silence." ~ Dinobot
by beastwarking on Nov 15, 2011 8:56 AM PST up reply actions
The good news
Is we have Pineda and Ackley! How long has it been since we had 1 rookie, let alone 2 rookies, come up, look like future stars and play exciting baseball for most of a season? We probably have to go back to Felix. I can’t think of a hitter, and I don’t really count Ichiro.
I think if Lawrie had been up earlier with Toronto or not gotten hurt, he may have made a good case (or may have hit less and ruined his numbers – who knows!). Hellickson is definitely deserving of the award though. Will Matt Moore take it home next season? The Rays scouting and farm directors should get some awards.
Probably back to 1984 if you want to find two rookies both playing great baseball for a season.
Griffey and Vizquel were both rookies in 1989, but while Vizquel was great with a glove his offense was pretty bad and I don’t remember him eliciting a ton of excitement during his rookie year.
No matter where you go, there you are.
Ackley is insanely refreshing
We’ve had countless farm system guys come up and look like AAAA guys, but he looked like he fit right in at the MLB level.
Hopefully most of the Jack Z guys can do this and perhaps some of the rookies we played this past season can take a (big) step forward next season.

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