Poll: The 2012 Mariners Offense by wOBA

by Matthew on Oct 5, 2011 12:02 PM PDT in Seattle Mariners Polling

The Mariners have not been good at the plate in a long time. Not since 2007 was the team unequivocally above average in results and even that seemed more like luck than design when the offense was carried by the likes of Raul Ibanez, Jose Guillen and Jose Vidro. After that year has been four straight seasons of abject disaster in run scoring. By wOBA, or wOBA-related measures, StatCorner (and remember, these are park adjusted) ranks the Mariners 28^th, 30^th, 30^th and 30^th since 2007. FanGraphs (by wRC+) is slightly more lenient at 22^nd, 25^th, 30^th and 30^th. Either way, the introduction is demonstrated; this has been a team lacking offensive spark for years.

The last pair of seasons has not seen the Mariners been just abysmal and finish dead bottom in the offensive ranks. They have been almost monumental failures. Going by runs against average, the 2010 Mariners were last in the league by a whopping 59 runs, behind the Astros. This past season was not meaningfully better, as the 29^th ranked Twins were still 58 runs better. The Mariners weren't just last, they were lapped.

We're familiar with how it came to be. And if you're not, don't worry because it will continue to be covered over the coming months. For now though, before any offseason moves have been made, I ask you to cast forward to one year from now and ponder where the Mariners will have finished 2012 ranking in wOBA. Is it more of the same? Do the Mariners get a small bounce as it appears that they have some decent talents in Mike Carp, Justin Smoak and Dustin Ackley? Does Jack Zduriencik finally snap and go hog wild on bats this winter and the team placates the cries of so many sports radio callers?

Poll

I think the 2012 Mariners will rank _____ on offense

30th

85 votes

29th

69 votes

28th

118 votes

27th-21st

562 votes

20-16th

179 votes

15-11th

27 votes

10th-1st

30 votes

1070 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

The bar graph showing the results currently looks like a fist giving a really tall middle finger

by Teej on Oct 5, 2011 12:08 PM PDT reply actions

A seven-fingered fist?

Inconceivable!

by NWade on Oct 5, 2011 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions

.

by abender20 on Oct 5, 2011 5:15 PM PDT up reply actions

Polling bias

Clearly most people think the mariners will be toward the bottom. But if you have a choice between picking a single rank and a range of 7 ranks, it’s typically going to be a much better bet to take the range, even if you think the range is optimistic.

by MangoLiger on Oct 5, 2011 12:15 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs

Agreed

It would have been much better if it was: 29-30, 27-28, 25-26, 21-24, 16-20, 11-15, 1-10

by GrodyToadie on Oct 5, 2011 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions

Also agreed

I think the most divisive/illuminating poll choice would be if you broke the lower range down into “28-25” vs. “24-21”. That would seem to divide the semi-realistic-optimists from the pessimists a lot more than the current choices. :-)

by NWade on Oct 5, 2011 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions

Don't tempt fate.

/not being serious
/or am I?

"Satisfaction is the enemy of success." SanFranPreps Twitter: @d_quazzo

by perfectstrat on Oct 5, 2011 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions

I voted 29th.

Our position players’ prowess is still largely defensively. I don’t really see our offense being above average at any postion besides 2B and wherever Carp/Smoak play (and they’re barely above average as 1B/DH, if at all, going forward).

I don’t see good offensive production coming out of C, SS, or 3B barring a FA signing or trade.
CF and RF have potential based on bouncebacks or maybe Trayvon coming up big, but aren’t near anything to count on.
LF is probably not going to be above average offensively unless Carp gets a lot of time there shudder

So… I don’t have much hope.
Maybe I should have voted 30th.

M's fan newly relocated to SF My homepage

by lailaihei on Oct 5, 2011 12:16 PM PDT reply actions

My predictions

In wOBA:
Ichiro: .300
Ackley: .340
Smoak: .340
Carp: .320
Guti: .310
Wells: .320

Everyone else: pile of bad. I just don’t see where the M’s are going to come up with a lot of offense next season. Even hoping for a little bit of bounce-back for Ichiro, you have to be pretty optimistic to figure Guit’s and Wells’ health problems aren’t a factor and that Smoak and Ackley both flourish and that Carp wasn’t just a mirage given his high BABIP. If I’m Jack I try to trade Carp and sign a bat. And see if Catricala can’t make the team somehow.

by short on Oct 5, 2011 12:52 PM PDT reply actions

My vote is in the 21st-22nd range.

C:
1B:
2B: Ackley
SS:

by ThomasG on Oct 5, 2011 12:52 PM PDT reply actions

Brendan Ryan hits pretty adequately for a shortstop, though

I mean, he’s not good by any stretch, but I’m certainly not embarrassed with a slap hitting .270/.315 hitter from SS

by seattlebruin on Oct 5, 2011 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions

Especially since baseball has sorta gone back to no hit fielders at short it seems.

How come you can do all this other great shit, but you can't lie the fuck down and sleep?

by JAH on Oct 5, 2011 10:16 PM PDT up reply actions

Uh..whoops

Anyway, here’s my line of thinking:

C: The team finds a servicable enough back-up either in-house (Moore) or in free agency to minimize the damage of Olivo.
1B: Smoak bounces back to somewhere in the .340-.350 wOBA range
2B: Ackley!
3B: The Mariners will probably punt this position since there really isn’t much out there, either in trade or FA. Maybe Cat? Maybe Liddi?
SS: Ryan should be an adequate contributor with respect to the position.
OF: Ichiro – slightly better than this year; Guti – very optimistic he’s much better (~.315 wOBA), Wells and the other rag-tag assortment of misfit toys don’t embarrass themselves too much.
DH: Free agent signee to split time with like five other guys, slightly below average production.

by ThomasG on Oct 5, 2011 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions

Why isn't Carp in your DH spot?

It seems like his job to lose at this point.

by Cascadian Man on Oct 5, 2011 1:13 PM PDT up reply actions

I think Carp will bounce around the OF, 1B, and DH and that he'll be relatively league-average next season.

by ThomasG on Oct 5, 2011 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions

27th-21st

We’re not going to be an offensive juggernaut with this line up in this stadium, but at the same time Ackley, Carp, Smoak, Wells, and Seager are all every day players who, when healthy (this is the key part here), manage to put up some pretty decent numbers. That’s not taking into account a possible Ichiro! resurgence as well.

Maybe my memory is incorrect, but it seems like we were hitting a lot better in the final month and half of the season. A full year of that kind of production with solid pitching and we could do alright.

by Cascadian Man on Oct 5, 2011 1:12 PM PDT reply actions

I like Seager enough, but I don't see how below-average offense from 3B helps our cause.

M's fan newly relocated to SF My homepage

by lailaihei on Oct 5, 2011 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions

He's our best option at the moment.

He’s solid defensively and isn’t awful at the plate. Hell, he went through a few stretches this year where he was fantastic until Wedge decided to sit him in favor of Adam Kennedy. The only way we could improve is if Alex Liddi suddenly stops striking out so much, or we overpay for an above average third basemen like Sandoval or Gordon.

Seager probably won’t ever be a league leader at 3B, but he’s shown the ability to be average to slightly above average already. If we don’t pick up anyone for the hot corner over the offseason then we lose nothing by starting him there, especially after considering our Opening Day 3B of this year.

by Cascadian Man on Oct 5, 2011 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions

My dream is for Seabass to become Zobrist 2.0.

Not likely or even plausible but a man can dream.

How come you can do all this other great shit, but you can't lie the fuck down and sleep?

by JAH on Oct 5, 2011 10:17 PM PDT up reply actions

wOBA adjusts for stadium, so Safeco isn't a factor in where the 2012 Mariners will finish in terms of wOBA

by seattlebruin on Oct 5, 2011 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions

Ah right, thanks for reminding me.

I need a touch up on stats again, I keep mixing up things up or forgetting stff like wOBA adjusting for stadiums ever since school started up again. Off to fangraphs I go.

by Cascadian Man on Oct 5, 2011 2:38 PM PDT up reply actions

Ahem

By wOBA, or wOBA-related measures, StatCorner (and remember, these are park adjusted)

by Matthew on Oct 5, 2011 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm just going to go sit in the corner now.

by Cascadian Man on Oct 5, 2011 4:46 PM PDT up reply actions

Voted 27th-21st (probably 25th or lower)

With primarily young players taking the bulk of the positions hopefully we see them take steps forward rather than watching other players search for their career lows.

by ThundaPC on Oct 5, 2011 1:25 PM PDT reply actions

I mean seriously, this is kind of maddening....

2011

Michael Saunders / PA = 179 / wOBA = .195
Chone Figgins / PA = 313 / wOBA = .218
Franklin Gutierrez / PA = 344 / wOBA = .245
Ichiro Suzuki / PA = 721 / wOBA = .289

2010

Ken Griffey Jr. / PA = 108 / wOBA = .214
Adam Moore / PA = 218 / wOBA = .224
Jose Lopez / PA = 622 / wOBA = .268
Casey Kotchman / PA = 457 / wOBA = .269
Milton Bradley / PA = 278 / wOBA = .289

Jeez, stop this nonsense you guys!

by ThundaPC on Oct 5, 2011 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions

Prince is gonna save us....or at least not make us laughingstocks

Every King needs a Prince

by ManifestDestiny on Oct 5, 2011 1:54 PM PDT reply actions

A-Gon Padres, here we come!

by ThundaPC on Oct 5, 2011 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions

Hey they almost made the playoffs!

Every King needs a Prince

by ManifestDestiny on Oct 5, 2011 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions

There's too much young talent on the team and I can't believe we'll have such ridiculous luck three years in a row

plus, Guti and Ichiro just looked awful this season and seemed primed to bounce back, along with Smoak. I think we can be almost league average next year

by seattlebruin on Oct 5, 2011 2:23 PM PDT reply actions

Care to bet Father's Office on that?

by abender20 on Oct 5, 2011 5:17 PM PDT up reply actions

There's way too much talent for them to be hilariously bad

20-16 is probably optimistic, but sheerly getting Figgins and Guti’s 700 PAs of complete suck out of the lineup should help a lot

by seattlebruin on Oct 6, 2011 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions

Ichiro is old, Miguel Olivo is really bad.

Smoak, Ackley, and Carp should give us some decent production but in all likelihood at least two of the outfielders will be baddish and 3rd is a question mark. Even with Smoak and Carp hitting near their reasonable max, there’s easily enough detritus to keep this team in the bottom ten.

by abender20 on Oct 5, 2011 5:19 PM PDT reply actions

I think if Guti and Ichiro bounce back a little the offense could be downright average.

by wetzelcoal on Oct 5, 2011 5:30 PM PDT reply actions

I don't see a way that Guti/Ichiro/Figgins/Peguero get that level of extended suck again only because GMZ would lose his job.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Oct 5, 2011 7:37 PM PDT reply actions

At some point there was a conversation about Peguero, where someone convinced someone else that Peguero was the guy

And he had to be brought up and given a shot. I’d sure like to have been a fly on the wall for that conversation.

by Kermit. on Oct 5, 2011 8:53 PM PDT up reply actions

Dramatization:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_JmA2ClUvUY

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Oct 5, 2011 9:11 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Just go ahead and shoot me in the face next time

by Kermit. on Oct 6, 2011 9:28 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

I voted 21-27 with the other sheeps

But honestly, the “braintrust” that ran Peguero out there until he ran us out of the playoff picture is still in place so I’m probably being too optimistic.

Ackley seems likely to perform above average for his position next year.

Among Smoak, Carp, Seager I feel that 2 will reach the plateau of league average for position. The 3rd won’t be getting 600 PAs. If Jack doesn’t come up with at least one league averagish bat this offseason who can cover 400 PAs or more, he won’t last the year.

Wells, Ryan, Ichiro ought to be above replacement

Guti? One would hope that he won’t be given more than 150 PAs if he isn’t healthy enough to lift a bat (again)!

Olivo? Guaranteed massive black hole of suck, anchoring the line-up in the #4-6 hole!

Figgins <200 PAs of suck.

Additionally I anticipate that between Robinson, Catricala (most likely), or Peguero, Chavez, Random dude in a cape (bloody unlikely) one will emerge with the chops to at least battle ML pitchers to a draw for maybe 250-300 PAs during the season’s 2nd half.

There isn’t really enough depth to support this prediction, but my magic math-free translator rates that as a #22-23 in the majors offense.

by bookbook on Oct 5, 2011 8:28 PM PDT reply actions

Oh, you believe Peguero is the reason we fell out of contention?

by ThundaPC on Oct 5, 2011 10:23 PM PDT up reply actions

Not really but...

Hyperbole has its place. He was the most solid proof that a team thAt needed every little break to keep up the improbable run simply didn’t know how to optimize. Peguero’s failings are more Wedge than him (I’d play if given the chance too).

by bookbook on Oct 6, 2011 6:14 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions

However, here's what really happened.

April: ERA: 3.95; FIP: 3.53; wOBA: .294 (Record: 13-15)
May: ERA: 2.82; FIP: 3.24; wOBA: .270 (Record: 15-11)
June: ERA: 3.06; FIP: 3.45; wOBA: .279 (Record: 11-16)
July: ERA: 4.66; FIP: 4.30; wOBA: .260 (Record: 6-20, 17-game losing streak)

The idea of contention brings warm and fuzzy feelings but I have to applaud the front office for not falling for it. Our starting pitching staff was awesome. Our starting pitching carried the team. But that staff also included Erik Bedard (injury risk), and Michael Pineda (rookie, innings limit). All five of them made all of their starts through June. Offense was pretty horrid the entire time. We were at best 3 games above .500. The team that won the division was 30 games over.

I honestly don’t have a problem with how Peguero was used. It was a sneak preview of how the rest of the season was going to go in terms of evaluating players.

by ThundaPC on Oct 6, 2011 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions