The Mariners future DH...
by CamraMaan on Jan 21, 2011 6:15 PM PST
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PrintGMZ gets to write the story on this one, and there are some interesting paths he could take. We have Jack Cust right now, and keeping him around is always possible. With the obvious past ties to the Brewers and Prince Fielder, its not hard to connect the dots to GMZ making a push to sign him next year as another option. But let's be honest, with the current word on the street being a desired contract of $200M/8yr, there's no way we do that. No way you commit 1/4 your payroll to a guy who doesn't play a defensive position. No way you give a guy who is waaay overweight an eight year contract. Of course, its simply a desire, and the market will dictate the price if Prince wants a contract.
But its feasible the market will be there for Prince to get close to his desires. There are more than a few teams who could enter the bidding/wooing process for Prince's services, and according to Cot's Contracts if Adrian Gonzalez extends with Boston, and Pujols re-signs with St Louis, then prince is one of the only FA 1B, and will easily be the only elite one in the class. Then there are the teams who, for one reason or another, may take an interest in Fielder. At first glance the Blue Jays, Cubs, Diamondbacks (depending on the success of Juan Miranda), Dodgers (do they re-up with Loney??), Orioles, Rangers (if Chris Davis fails for another year, do they trust Moreland instead?), and Rockies (part ways with Helton?) could all take an interest. Add in the Mariners and we have eight possible teams in the bidding. It only takes two GMs to jack up a price, so you do the math. He won't come cheap.
So let's assume Fielder is beyond our realistic grasp to fill the DH spot, who plays there in 2012? Its possible that we keep Cust for another year or two, but I have another idea.....
So can we agree that we're rebuilding, and that GMZ is trying to stay with the youth movement and keep our costs low? What if there was a player who brings a very nice bat, both in power and patience, who more or less has no defensive position to call home... could we actually promote a player from the minors to be a career DH from the get-go?? Well I ask: why not? People, if his numbers continue to impress in AA/AAA in 2011, my vote is for Rich Poythress to be considered our future DH. he's 6'4", 235 lbs, and brings a real bat with him. He was our 2nd rd pick after Dustin Ackley and Nick Franklin in the '09 draft, meaning GMZ was high on him then, and it was well known at the time that he had no defensive prowess... he simply brings the wood.
Last year at A+ High Desert, he went .315/.382/.580/.961, and I know, "but that's at High Desert" is the obvious gut-check response, however he hit more HRs on the road than at home, and was equally impressive in his stat lines across the board, home or away. At home he hit .339/.413/.579/.991, but he likewise hit .291/.346/.581/.927 on the road. On top of that he was almost as impressive against lefties and he was against right handers. In one pre-draft scouting report he was classified as such:
"Poythress is a big, strong, slow power hitter whose build and approach bring to mind big leaguers like Jim Thome and Frank Thomas. Poythress drifts a little, getting his weight on his front foot earlier than he should, but he is so strong that he can drive balls on the outer half of the plate to the right-center wall with little trouble and his pull power is substantial. He's disciplined and runs deep counts, but he chases hard stuff that is up or under his hands. He's extremely slow, both as a runner and in quickness at first base, so he must hit to have any value. He's strong enough and patient enough that that shouldn't be a problem." (link)
Well, he "hit" last year, just like he "hit" in college. And if he "hits" next year in AA/AAA, can a rebuilding team, who drafted him in the second round, seriously not consider him as our potential DH of the future? In an era where DH's are normally old, injury prone sluggers (or ex-sluggers), we could save the cash from a Prince Fielder contract, and spend it on an ace pitcher, and instead use our own young, healthy, very productive, and cheap Rich Poythress as our next career DH.
Why not?
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A couple notes before I head out the door...
- In the early part of the season, he was also hitting most of his home runs on the road in cheaper parks like Bakersfield and Lancaster. This became less pronounced as the season went on and he started pulling them out of Inland Empire and Modesto, but it was something that was noticeable early on.
- Poythress did walk at the second best rate on the roster, as many as Johermyn Chavez but in sixty fewer at bats, and with thirty-two fewer strikeouts. For the league, he’s still in the top fifteen, but he could probably stand to walk a little more.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
Same boat as Dennis Rabin
Bat-first players that have got to seriously impress this next year to get attention from the big club. They’re at an age where they need to keep putting up big numbers and move fast, or they’re going to get lost in the shuffle. While either one of them could prove to be Major League quality bats, their lack of much defensive value means they have to become real good hitters to have a full time career in the big leagues. Out of the two of them, there’s a decent chance one of them could do that — but lacking much defensive value, it would be a tough choice for the Mariners to keep one on just as a DH.
by nathaniel dawson on Jan 21, 2011 7:45 PM PST reply actions
Same same, but different...
Raben had the bad home/away splits, and lefty/righty splits… that’s where Poythress instills more confidence in his abilities as he hits good/great no matter where he is or who he faces, at least by the averages.
Also
Johermyn Chavez is kinda like Raben where his splits were not very confidence inspiring, but his totals compared very favorably to Poythress. Of course Chavez is a great fielder, so he’s got a position to work from and climb the ladder with. Another point between Raben and Poythress is Poythress so far has better walk and SO rates. Then there’s Raben’s .437 BABIP at HD, versus Chavez’s .364 and Poythress’ more earthly .337 BABIP. If I had to put my money on one of these three guys in AA with their bats, I’m taking Poythress.
So if Poythress destroyes AA, and follows up joining Tacoma at mid-season and does good there as well, do we consider him for the DH job? Save the money potentially spent on a guy like Fielder, spend it on pitching, and run with Poythress?
Those splits may inspire more confidence in you
To me, I look at the size of those samples, where they’ve played, and how they’ve done overall, and I can’t see much to separate the two. Aside from different but equivalently valuable defensive positions, they look like mirror images of each other.
by nathaniel dawson on Jan 21, 2011 8:24 PM PST reply actions
Sorry, meant to reply to CamraMaan's reply to my reply to his original post.
Does that clear things up?
by nathaniel dawson on Jan 21, 2011 8:27 PM PST up reply actions
Sure, sample sizes are certainly a big factor, which is why I’m not impressed with Raben at High Desert just yet. Basically, he destroyed righties at home, accompanied by his .437 BABIP. Between the two, Raben has a lot more to prove to me than Poythress, albeit they both still have a to prove… Poythress doesn’t get any free passes. Poythress was doing the same thing back in college as well, so this isn’t something new to him. Raben can’t say the same thing to the same degree.
I have heard from this site and others that the DH has a stigma about it.
Teams do not want to bring up a kid and have him spend his career as a DH. I do not know if this is true or not but it would explain why someone hasn’t been brought up to the majors as a 24 year old to “just” DH.
I am sure if Edger could do it all over he would have jumped at the chance to have a few more years in the majors as a career DH.
I would prefer to have someone like Kila Ka’aihue be the Mariner’s potential career DH. I am sure there are a few other AAA guys who could also be career DH’s if they didn’t have to worry about bring a glove to the field.
by mark sobba on Jan 21, 2011 8:38 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
I have heard from this site and others that the DH has a stigma about it.
Teams do not want to bring up a kid and have him spend his career as a DH. I do not know if this is true or not but it would explain why someone hasn’t been brought up to the majors as a 24 year old to “just” DH.
I am sure if Edger could do it all over he would have jumped at the chance to have a few more years in the majors as a career DH.
I would prefer to have someone like Kila Ka’aihue be the Mariner’s potential career DH. I am sure there are a few other AAA guys who could also be career DH’s if they didn’t have to worry about bring a glove to the field.
You get the Kila Monster...
And we’ll talk about what to do with him. But we don’t have him, or anyone like him, so its a moot point.
If you told a kid that he doesn’t have the defensive abilities to be a need with the major league club, but that he could get a bigger paycheck as a DH, I don’t think they would argue. Umm, where do I sign up? Its not like Poythress is unaware of his defensive abilities compared to his peers. But its harder with, say, a guy like Prince Fielder or Michael Young, who have been playing in the field, and probably want to continue to play in the field. You ask them to DH and its possible they look at you cross-eyed.
I just think the M’s past history at DH (since Edgar) has set a pattern that needs to be broken. Fielder would certainly break the pattern, but logistically he’s likely to price himself out of our plans. So instead of getting some old, used, “injured” guy, why not go young with a healthy, positionless player who swings a solid bat?
by CamraMaan on Jan 21, 2011 8:47 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Cleaning the trash...
If you haven’t already noticed, GMZ has been cleaning out the “trash” prospects that Bavasi drafted… the ones who don’t fit the Zduriencik player profile. I don’t know how GMZ views Raben, but its certainly worth noting that GMZ drafter Poythress, while Bavasi drafted Raben. I would put money that if GMZ had to choose, he would take Poythress.
Patient, high OBP players
At least for the most part. We all like power in a hitter, and no GM will say no to power. Same thing with speed. Those two kind of go without saying. But GMZ prefers to get guys who profile as high OBP batters as a primary skill set. That’s fairly synonymous with being a patient batter, but as a skill he likes guys who can skillfully take a lot of pitches, and do their part to getting a SP out early, get to the BP early.
We can't always get what we want
But GMZ prefers to get as much of that talent pool on his team as he can. And a good balance of power and speed to accelerate the offensive production.
Sorry, forgot...
That was the offensive side, but GMZ also requires position players to be above average defensively, at a minimum… he’ll sacrifice a little offense for a lot of defense.
In the future, it would be better if you coached your statements less authoritatively.
Unless you are Jack Zduriencik or know him personally, you don’t actually know that he requires players to be above average defensively at a minimum. You can speculate that based on his previous moves, but you don’t know.
Even if that were an absolute trend, it could be because that was what Z felt would be the easiest way to make the club better. There’s no indication that it’s a set-in-stone archetype for him.
Also, Russell Branyan.
by Matthew on Jan 22, 2011 1:13 PM PST up reply actions 9 recs
Yeah, except...
I was simply asked what I think he likes as a general “player profile”, and that’s what I answered to. I have a hard time seeing someone follow this conversation and get confused about that.
But...
Someone could certainly take some of what I said out of context and run with it, if they wanted to…
As for Russell Branyan, he was a short term answer to bringing back a little pop into the lineup on the cheap. Where the idea is “for the most part”, he falls on the outside. Did he get brought back this off-season…? No, it was a short term thing. He was an exception to “the rule”, or so I would say.
You're missing the point?
I have a hard time seeing someone read Matthew’s comment and get confused about it.
You aren’t Z, so you don’t know and should not say that you know what Z’s “player profile” is. Matthew isn’t commenting on your evaluation of Z’s player profile. He’s telling you to stop pretending like you are in Z’s brain.
Oh yes, and thank you for clearing up what was already clear.
Matthew thanks you.
You may think that's what you answered, but it's not.
You didn’t frame your comment as what you think, even if you believe that’s what you intended.
You cannot write something like “GMZ also requires” and have it be read like “Based on his two years of moves as GM, I think Zduriencik has a strong preference for”. You have to actually make the effort to coach your statements that way.
by Matthew on Jan 24, 2011 11:46 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
My apologies
I didn’t realize you had no idea that I was answering a question about what I think his tendencies and “player profile” were, even though it was blatantly asked of me. However, I know what you are saying, and I’m sorry I didn’t frame it correctly, but its a pretty simple “problem” of not framing my answer correctly, and I think we can all accept that and move on, yes? Or do you need to swell on this subject for a bit longer? Its really not as big of an issue as you are making out to be. He asked, I answered, and I apologize for not answering in the form of a question Mr. Alex Trebek.
I realize this is the off-season, and we are all itching for things to write about and comment on, but seriously, this is verging on ridiculous… unless, of course, you honestly thought I was trying to pretend like I know exactly how GMZ would answer that question, and answer it as such. If any you thought that, you truly are fools. But call yourselves what you will. Frankly, I would like to move on.
You do realize Matthew is a mod here, right?
Go easy on the attitude – not just to Matthew, but in general, please.
Me being a mod has nothing to do with it in this case.
The contempt in this comment is uncalled for no matter who is involved.
Stop pointing it out and make me a sandwich
by Matthew on Jan 24, 2011 5:30 PM PST up reply actions 11 recs
I didn't know you were a mod
But I’ve also witnessed you comment multiple times on this whole post with no intention towards talking about the topic… my lack of framing my answer is really a minor problem that was blown out of the water, no? I have no “attitude” except that I feel this side topic is pointless and rather unnecessary, and frankly I don’t see why we can’t simply talk about the more interesting and important issue of what this team will do in the future about our DH. I didn’t start anything, and I never had the want or desire to continue it, so can we drop it? Has any harm been done? Are any feelings hurt? I sincerely hope not. We’re all grown ups, so why don’t we try to talk baseball, since that’s what we’re here for…
And forgive me...
I never been one to be put in a corner and simply hide and pretend like I’m not here. If I feel I have a right and a reason to defend myself, against anyone, I will do it. I’ve been on various sports forums for many years, and this is the first time I’ve ever had anyone start something with me over my sentence structure, or use of words in an ill-advised manner. We make mistakes, I made a mistake, and its really not a big deal, or at least it really shouldn’t be.
This isn't a sports blog.
It’s Jeff and Matthew’s playpen.
Let's end this subthread please.
The matter has been brought up, acknowledged, and handled.
by Matthew on Jan 24, 2011 6:34 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I, too would choose Rich over a ridiculous contract for Prince.
It seems a little early to pencil in someone who spent last year in High-A ball, but it’s nice to have some options for next year. Other options include all the old guys signing one-year deals this offseason.
Apparently Rich’s nickname is Kodak Bear. This makes me like him more. Unfortunately, he’s right handed, which makes Safeco like him less.
Has anyone informed BigR?
Poythress hits them out to all fields. He’ll lose a bit to left but it’s not going to cripple him.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Jan 22, 2011 9:58 PM PST up reply actions
So back to the original topic...
What do people on here want to happen with our DH position next year? I mean a lot has yet to happen, Cust could prove his worth beyond what we expect, or maybe Fielder gets traded at mid-season and signs a major contract extension, taking him off the table. But the fact of the matter is that we are rebuilding, and for once we are making moves that will help us in the future, instead of hurt us in the future (you know, like what Bavasi did). At some point the balance between home grown talent, available salary, and open holes in the roster will coincide, and we can fill hopes with FAs and put out a very good team. So when do we jump on the big FAs? Next year? In two years?
If Franklin stays at SS he’s probably still at least a year and a half away from coming up here, and the maturation date on our young guys is at least a year, probably two… so does it make more sense to give a guy like Poythress a try in 2012, or go spend some free money on a guy like Fielder, if he’s coming at a reasonable price?
I'd rather not have a set DH.
I see Cust as the DH for this year since he cannot field at all but I’d rather not have the inflexibility we’ve had in years past with the DH position. Last year we had two immobile fogies at DH and before there has been the venerable Jose Vidro and Carl Everett situations. I don’t think signing a guy who has the DH tag or bringing a guy up who has that designation is that helpful unless they’re someone like Edgar or Ortiz who is so good they make up for it. I don’t think Poythress is at that level. I don’t think we have the money to sign Fielder nor do I think it’s wise to do so even if we did.
So put simply, I see Cust as the DH for now. In the future hopefully someone who can field but is worse than the fielder at his natural position. I don’t know who that is. Maybe it will be someone within the system. Maybe a 1B prospect will outfield Smoak and he will move to DH eventually. Having more flexibility at DH is ultimately what the team needs in the long run.
by Mariner John on Jan 24, 2011 8:06 PM PST up reply actions
I'm all for not having things set until more pieces are available from the farm system.
Personally that’s the cornerstone of this GMZ regime, his commitment to developing our own players. I subscribe to the notion that FA are to bolster inefficiencies when there is something resembling a core in place. So waiting a year to two or three to start playing the FA market in a big way sounds good. There just isn’t enough talent ready to make an impact yet.
The only reason Seattle should really be pursuing these free agents is if it can exploit an inefficiency when teams want to buy bats later in the season.
Other than that, stay away.
(Also, this glut of DH-types hanging on right now might actually be so big that the inefficiency exists for everybody, negating Seattle’s ability to sell for value later.)
Just because this post may not contain a pun, I have not surrendered my pun-alienable rights.
by thehemogoblin on Jan 24, 2011 11:42 PM PST up reply actions
If by "sell for value later"...
You mean trade at the deadline, then Seattle should really only be playing that game with pitchers. We make pitchers look good because of the confines of Safeco, and the defense we normally put behind them, and at the same time Safeco tends to make hitters look worse. So the sign and trade for specs later idea is best exercised with starter and relief pitchers. And while I think that will ultimately be Bedard’s end with us, a trade once he’s fit to bring a decent haul back, I really wish we were trying to do the same with another FA starter/reliever or two as well. I mean our BP in particular has the room to use an extra body to flip later for a prospect, and we could make temporary room in the rotation if needed as well.
Maybe
But personally I prefer the low risk high reward types, and I have a hard time categorizing Robertson as a high reward type. However I think he may potentially turn out to be a lefty specialist out of the bull pen. I just can’t see him supplanting anyone in our current projected starting rotation.
The low risk, high reward pitchers I would have liked to see come in were Brad Penny or Brandon Webb. They both signed $3M/1yr contracts, which are about as low risk as you can ask for names like those. But if they pan out this season and return to anything close to their old forms, imagine the kinds of prospect(s) would could get with a July trade…
Everybody prefers low risk-high reward every single time- that's like saying you prefer breathing oxygen to arsenic
We didn’t have $3 million to spend.
Determined, Jonesing Commentor
And given our payroll inflexibility, tossing $3 million at Webb or Penny would have been high risk-high reward
Determined, Jonesing Commentor
Would you prefer a risk play on Webb/Penny...
Or stick with grabbing Miguel Olivo? If we had of grabbed Webb or Penny instead, the contracts would have come close to a wash with July trade.
I mean I don’t mind adding Olivo, he’ll be an upgrade overall, but was he well worth it over Webb or Penny? If you gamble right and get the winner there, and the Webb/Penny you pick recovers to a dominant form, we’re probably talking about another top 30 prospect.
Yes considering we didn't have a viable catcher.
by Mariner John on Jan 27, 2011 5:21 PM PST up reply actions
Kinda...
Gotta remember this is a rebuilding year, so “viable” is kind of relative to our overall expectations on the year. Is a viable catcher only good for defense? Good for offense? Both? How good…? Defensively speaking we have viable catchers in the minors, however on offense the options are slim (aside from Olivo) unless Moore comes into his own. But in a rebuilding year I wouldn’t argue with giving Moore the reigns and saying “go get comfortable out there, and learn as much as you can in the process”… I mean he needs to be playing full time right now, either in Tacoma or up here, cuz sitting on the bench and watching from a distance and playing once or twice a week isn’t going to help as much as getting out there and playing most every day.
But like I said, I’m not complaining about bring Olivo back on board.
Teams are valueing their prospects much, more more than they used to.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-two-markets/
Don’t get your hopes up too much. It takes an tremendous amount of luck for the Washburn-type trades that you’re thinking of to happen.
I'm a pretty firm believer
That if we have a high quality trade chip at the July trade deadline, that GMZ will be able to flip him for a max return. A dominating Webb or Penny should constitute a high quality trade chip, even after their respective injuries. With our park factor, and what should be an improved defense as well, its more feasible to disguise an average-ish pitcher as “dominant”.
How can you know that Webb is even close to the pitcher he was though?
His velocity has been way down from what I’ve heard.
by Mariner John on Jan 27, 2011 5:22 PM PST up reply actions
This is true...
I read in his first time pitching in “game conditions”, after almost a year and a half of rest and rehabbing, he was throwing his FB about 6-10 mph slower than normal (clocked at 78-82 mph; normal at about 88 mph). This is significantly lower, however you have to expect that velocity to come up more with more time on the mound. That was in September, and really his first time throwing hard from the mound. Cause for concern? Sure, but that’s why he signed a 1 yr contract for only $3M… its a risky move, but if it pays off, then it pays off BIG. It’s low risk because of the cost, relative to the potential benefit if he succeeds.
But in that case, the inefficiency is in any team who pays real money for that type of bat
in that case, we need to simply not be a stupid team an find an inefficiency to exploit elsewhere
by seattlebruin on Jan 25, 2011 7:48 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
I don't know that it's safe to say they shouldn't sign any high-value free agents until later.
You should want to take advantage of good opportunities that are there, especially if it can help your team win a few games the next season. This obviously doesn’t apply to this off-season, as the M’s quite apparently didn’t have the budget to do so, but it well could for the next. For one, if you wait until you’re “all ready” to compete, you may not be able to bring in all the help you’d really need in just one off-season. That’s a lot of work to do, and the pieces probably won’t fall into place. For another, if you forgo opportunities to add wins in the coming season, that could erode your fanbase and leave you with less money in the future to add in those free agent players around your core. And, of course, it would be almost criminal if they didn’t use money they had in the budget to try and add talent to their roster.
Signing long-term free agents is building for the future, as these players will be around for a few years. If they can add a piece or two that can help them now and in the future, even if it’s not the moves that would “put them over the top”, it’s something that they really should do.
by nathaniel dawson on Jan 25, 2011 2:37 PM PST up reply actions
I agree
I mean if Fielder can be had for a reasonable price next off-season, I’m all for it. And a lot of that will depend on how he does this season. Adding him in a year, with guys like Smoak, Ackley and Saunders still adjusting to big league pitchers, Fielder could bring some stability to the lineup. You make Fielder bat 4th or 5th, and whoever bats in front of him (I would guess Smoak) will have a better selection of pitches to work from. Fielder’s presence brings some better pitches to a guy like Smoak, Smoak gets a few more hits, Smoak’s confidence possibly comes up more, and he in turn hits more consistently. Maybe Smoak’s increased production at the plate in turn provides some protection in the lineup to Ackley, if he’s batting in front of him…
There’s a point in time where adding a guy like Fielder to the lineup will aid in the progress of our young guys, because of the protection he will provide to the lineup in front of him. Maybe that point in time is next off-season, but maybe its not…
And of course, the key is to make solid, smart decisions on those free agents that you do sign.
I don’t know what’s going to happen with Prince Fielder, but I have a hard time seeing his signing go down as “solid and smart”. Not if Ryan Howard is any indication.
(all that could be way off base — I have no way to predict what teams might want to pay for Prince Fielder)
by nathaniel dawson on Jan 25, 2011 3:03 PM PST up reply actions
That's the hard part...
…knowing what he will eventually sign for. He set the bar at $200M/8yrs, which shouldn’t happen, but its where he will be coming down from.
If he has a season in ‘11 that is reminiscent of ’07 or ’09, then he will easily get $20+M/yr, and probably 7 years. But if he repeats last year or ’06, then he’ll have a hard time getting that much, and maybe $17-19M/yr and 6 or 7 years?
If he shows any injury concerns from wear due to weight, take more years off the contract. If he has an injury unrelated to weight, then it probably shouldn’t be as concerning, but it all depends on the injury.
But if he manages to lose any weight, has a healthy season, and a very productive season, I think he plays himself out of the price range we might pay for our future DH.
Our team is currently really shitty. Lot of guys that are one dimentional players
Strong on defense, weak on offense is what I’m saying. I’d think it would be less of a risk to upgrade players across the board instead of tying up a lot of wins in one player with a major contract. Too many eggs in one basket.
So, play around with trades like GMZ has been doing and wait for the system to produce some decent players that will be under team control suits me just fine.
I'm in the same boat, really...
There’s just been discussion here and there that Fielder should be a prime target for GMZ next off-season. Personally, I see some risk in getting him in particular, due to his weight/health. Poythress still has a lot to prove, but I like the package. I think he has a real good chance to succeed and potentially be considered as a long term DH for us. And if he were brought up to primarily be our DH, I could easily see him sticking here as a career Mariner.
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