A Luke French Observation

by Jeff Sullivan on Jan 17, 2011 12:54 PM PST in Miscellaneous

People in my position are very interested in changes. Changes in strikeout rate. Changes in discipline. Changes in velocity. We understand that a given player's true talent level often isn't static, and changes in his numbers give us an idea as to which way a player is trending.

But the changes we observe are generally changes in statistics, which means they're indirect. A player can't change his stats. He can change something about the way he plays baseball, which may then cause a change in his stats, but there's no skipping the first step. For every Result B, there's always a Cause A.

So from time to time, it's worth looking beyond the statistics to try and identify the root cause of a change. I think we can all agree that Luke French has changed. But why has he changed? Let's go to the pictures.

As a Tiger, Luke French struck out 5.8 batters per nine innings. Since coming over to the Mariners, his strikeout rate has dropped to 4.3. This ominous drop corresponds to a starkly reduced resemblance at release to a man afflicted with Bell's palsy.

He who can't scare, beware.

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There is a saying in Spanish that goes "En boca cerrada, no entran moscas."

Which translates to: “In a closed mouth, no flies enter”. It’s pretty obvious that, by heeding this bit of good advice and closing his mouth while pitching, Luke French is preventing fly balls from entering the stands. (As evidenced by his drop in HR/9 and HR/FB rate since coming to the Mariners.) Furthermore, this approach is causing him to be more relaxed on the mound and to rely on his defense instead of trying to get the strikeout.

by ThomasG on Jan 17, 2011 1:09 PM PST reply actions 11 recs

I wonder what some of the most dramatic changes of all-time are.

Like a player who gained 5 mph on his fastball over winter, or who changed his swing and gained 20 HR. Jose Bautista for example… but I’m more of a statistics guy than an observational guy, so I’m not sure who actually made changes and how.

Any amazing examples anyone can think of?

by Kenneth Arthur on Jan 17, 2011 1:22 PM PST reply actions

Ervin Santana 2008?

And then Ervin Santana 2009, but the other way.

Dustin Ackley is going to make Joe Morgan look like Joey Cora.
AL Scout on Rendon: "I would peg him as a poor man's Jose Lopez."

by joof on Jan 17, 2011 1:37 PM PST up reply actions

The camera angle has also changed.

We’re gonna need more data.

by Jiri on Jan 17, 2011 1:58 PM PST reply actions

I don't see much off a difference

by Flamefox111 on Jan 17, 2011 3:16 PM PST reply actions

Trying to adjust for the differing camera angle I can still see a couple things

His plant foot is pointed at the plate in the Mariner picture, and sort of at the dugout in the Tiger one.
His body is much more open (chest not totally facing home plate) in the Tiger picture, although that might be a trick of the angle.

by pdb on Jan 17, 2011 3:41 PM PST up reply actions

His glove is in a very different position between the two pictures

not that I think any of this really matters – it’s just two different pitches, after all

by seattlebruin on Jan 17, 2011 3:51 PM PST up reply actions

I'm having trouble tracing his driveline

to assess his mechanics.

by pdb on Jan 17, 2011 5:03 PM PST up reply actions

There's one very noticeable difference.

In the top shot, there is what looks to be a brick building in the background, while the bottom shot has some kind of black honeycomb structure behind him.

by nathaniel dawson on Jan 17, 2011 5:46 PM PST up reply actions 4 recs

Interestingly the first one looks like what Brandon League should look like.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Jan 17, 2011 4:14 PM PST reply actions

Brandon League is right handed

by seattlebruin on Jan 17, 2011 4:51 PM PST up reply actions

.... Yes?

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Jan 17, 2011 4:54 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

Frenchy

French now has spectacles but didn’t used to in Detroit.

by funkywinkerbean on Jan 17, 2011 5:22 PM PST reply actions

That's the biggest difference...

No glasses as a Tiger, glasses as a Mariner. Could be that he liked contacts before, or it could be that his eyes have got worse over time. If your eyes are progressively getting worse you can’t get surgery, and therefore have to wear contacts or glasses. So maybe his eyes haven’t stopped getting worse…

by CamraMaan on Jan 17, 2011 11:26 PM PST up reply actions

Plus...

He doesn’t scare anyone.

Does anyone really sweat over the future of Luke though? When the deal happened I was happier about Robles being in it than Luke. And even now I have higher hopes for Robles in the bullpen than Luke in the starting rotation.

by CamraMaan on Jan 17, 2011 11:28 PM PST up reply actions