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Using Greg Halman to Remind People that Park and Age Matter

Dave Cameron recently posted a piece on Brock & Salk's blog concerning Greg Halman's strikeout rate. I know Dave is a self-admitted non-believer in Greg Halman and I know it was written for Brock and Salk's blog and so has a limit on how in depth it can be and still keep a reader's attention. Still, I felt there were an important two pieces missing from the comparison of Halman's strikeout rates to those of other noted whiffing sluggers.

First off, I care very little about career rates, especially in the Minors. I prefer to focus only on Double-A and above but will occasionally pay heed to High-A numbers when I think they say something interesting. Of course, looking only at Halman's numbers in West Tenn and Tacoma would seem to make the matter worse as his strikeout rate at those two levels has been higher than his overall career rate.

Which brings me to my first point. Parks matter and Halman has by and large played in parks that --according to my park factor figures-- increase strikeouts to right-handed hitters. West Tenn has a RHB K factor of 103 and Tacoma's in 108. Park adjusting Halman's strikeouts reduces them slightly. He still has horrible rates that track like this:

High-A 282 PAs, 28% Ks
Double-A 762 PAs, 32% Ks
Triple-A 465 PAs, 34% Ks

Counter to Halman's experiences, noted slugger Ryan Howard played in a more neutral and sometimes favorable (to reducing strikeouts) environments. When park adjusting his line, Howard's progression looks like:

High-A 533 PAs, 28% Ks
Double-A 433 PAs, 30% Ks
Triple-A 384 PAs, 27% Ks

The big divergence between the two being their performance in Triple-A. That leads into my second point. Howard was 23 in High-A, 24 in Double-A and mostly 25 in Triple-A. Halman on the other hand was 20 while batting in High-A, 21 while at West Tenn and 22 for most of this season at Tacoma. He just two weeks ago turned 23.

This is not a disproving of Dave's skepticism by any means. I agree that Halman has a big problem with strikeouts. I agree that very few players in the historical record have managed such high strikeouts in the minor leagues and gone on to have big league success. However, I think the gap is a little closer than might be perceived and I think we have to keep in mind Halman's young age as a reason to hope that he can improve upon his current rates in the future.

Comment 103 comments  |  3 recs  | 

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Comments

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I love that something positive could finally be said about Greg Halman.

Well, not necessarily positive, but I like that you’ve given me a little bit more hope for him. Is it true he has to be on the 25-man by the end of next season or we risk losing him?

by Kenneth Arthur on Sep 9, 2010 12:16 PM PDT reply actions  

He has one option remaining.

So 2011 is his opportunity to prove something and then 2012 is when the hammer comes down.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Sep 9, 2010 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

I would think he's got a decent chance to at least make the 2012 team as a backup outfielder.

He’s good enough to defend in all three spots at an average or above average level.

by Rudy4three on Sep 9, 2010 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

Liked the article

Halman is a decent defensive player. Is he good enough to be an average CF with the glove?

I don’t hate the strikeouts so much but I’d like him to walk more. If he was walking around 10% of the time I could live with the strikeouts better.

by Edgar for Pres on Sep 9, 2010 12:17 PM PDT reply actions  

He's good enough to be at least average.

He was the Rainiers defensive player of the year, for whatever that’s worth, but regardless, he’s probably the best CF in system.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Sep 9, 2010 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

Halman's glove > Carrera's glove

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Sep 9, 2010 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

That was probably an inference because Carrera was playing CF over Halman for a while.

Halman’s numbers were better and he was playing CF when both he and Carrera were in Tacoma this year.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Sep 9, 2010 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

Nooooo

To start this season, the Rainiers had Carrera, Halman and Saunders in the OF. The worst CF of the group was Carrera.

by marc w on Sep 9, 2010 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think Carrera's reputation...

had a lot to do with defensive reputation often being inversely proportional to offensive ability. People saw he didn’t have a huge bat, knew Z traded for him, and assumed he was an Endy Chavez clone.

by slamcactus on Sep 9, 2010 3:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

The comparison was certainly made.

I think I said that it was a similar offensive skillset, just likely better than Chavez’ and accompanied by worse defense.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Sep 9, 2010 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well if he can play average CF the bar for his offensive production is set a lot lower

Do you think he could be a +5-10 run CF or is average pretty much where he is going to stay?

by Edgar for Pres on Sep 9, 2010 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

He's at least average and probably plus.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Sep 9, 2010 12:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

I haven't read Dave's piece yet and this is not to counter your point at all, because your point is a good one,

but I am going to go ahead and guess that Howard’s walk rates in the minors were something like double or triple what Halman’s have been.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Sep 9, 2010 12:17 PM PDT reply actions  

Huh Halman actually walks at a half decent rate

I guess the numbers are always simply dwarfed by his K numbers

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Sep 9, 2010 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

Half decent rate?!?

2008: ~6%
2009: 5.7%
2010: 8%

That’s not what i would call half decent.

"you ain't never been no virgin kid you were f@$%ed from the start"

by BW Kropotkin on Sep 9, 2010 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

Even if you give him 8% BB percentage

which is beyond generous considering the jump to the majors, he’d be one of the worst 30 in the league in walk percentage and his B/KK would be twice as bad as the worst major league hitter.

"you ain't never been no virgin kid you were f@$%ed from the start"

by BW Kropotkin on Sep 9, 2010 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

Oh I see I thought you were saying his walk rates were better than half decent

I was going off 10% being decent and half decent being literally half of that.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Sep 9, 2010 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Phrases like "half decent" are annoying

“one half of decent” > half decent (oftentimes called halfway decent) > decent > good > awesome.

by yuniform on Sep 9, 2010 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Giving him an 8% walk rate would make him an exactly average qualified MLB hitter.

I don’t know where you pulled this worst 30 thing, but it’s completely false.

by Matthew on Sep 9, 2010 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't know where I did either :/

"you ain't never been no virgin kid you were f@$%ed from the start"

by BW Kropotkin on Sep 9, 2010 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

Why I do believe I'll link to this later.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Sep 9, 2010 12:20 PM PDT reply actions  

Hey...

If you want to do the USSM commentary, that’s fine. I was just going to link it and say “hey, look at this” when I go over tonight’s game.

You’re awfully edgy for a guy who just got back from vacation.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Sep 9, 2010 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

Thank you

Don’t forget that he brings defensive value that guys like Howard and Branyan couldn’t sniff.

I understand the discussion is whether he can be a big league hitter, but his defense and speed are going to give him chances to prove that he can. Combined with his youth, he’s going to get a few looks at some point with somebody.

by dnc on Sep 9, 2010 12:23 PM PDT reply actions  

Park factors & K rate

Can someone explain why different parks would yield different K rates? It doesn’t make sense to me that you can develop reliable/meaningful park factors around an outcome that does not involve batted balls. Are there differing park factors for walks? HBP? Wild pitches?

It seems to me that the park factors for K rates are probably result of the quality of the home team’s pitching staff, not some feature of the park which makes batters K more (batter’s eye maybe?).

Please enlighten me…thanks!

by smcilhen on Sep 9, 2010 12:28 PM PDT reply actions  

Batter's eye is the huge determinant

but beyond that pitchers feel more comfortable being up in the zone in bigger parks. Pitching up in the zone has two main effects – whiffs and long fly balls. If a park plays big enough to hold most of the latter, you’re going to see more of the former.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Sep 9, 2010 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

Batter's eye would probably be a factor, and I'd imagine that a lot of things about park factors are interdependant.

What Bearskin Rugburn says below is a significant factor I’d imagine, and I’d also guess that parks that favor pitchers lead to lower pitch counts which is going to affect the way pitchers go after batters.

by Aaron Campeau on Sep 9, 2010 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

There are plenty of park-specific things that could affect things like strikeout rate.

Mostly pertaining to lighting/visibility. The cardinal direction the stadium is facing would affect where the sun is in relation to the batter’s line of sight to the pitcher. A stadium that faces exactly due west would likely increase strikeouts during the evenings/sunsets as the batter would have to stare in the direction of the sun to see the pitch. Similarly, a stadium with a tall, plain undecorated CF wall likely decrease strikeouts when compared to a stadium with a CF wall with colorful advertisements on it or a low wall with seats right against the field, as it’s easier to pick out the movement of the ball against a solid background, whereas with a more elaborate background the batter has to play “where’s waldo” with the ball a little bit more.

I don't want to achieve immortality through my work... I want to achieve it through not dying.

by Terminator X on Sep 9, 2010 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

Do they place fields with the batter facing west?

Maybe there are some in the minors, but I always thought they oriented them with the batter facing away from the sun.

by nathaniel dawson on Sep 9, 2010 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

Not directly toward the sun no,

but there are stadia, including Safeco, where you would can end up with the mound in shadow and home plate in day light depending on the time of day.

by Matthew on Sep 9, 2010 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

No they don't as far as I'm aware,

I was just using the most extreme scenario to give a vivid visualization of how much external factors (like lighting) can affect strikeout rate. I probably assumed other people would deduce that this applied in more subtle, more plausible scenarios as well. Like if you put a dumb hill in centerfield that casts dumb shadows on the grass.

I don't want to achieve immortality through my work... I want to achieve it through not dying.

by Terminator X on Sep 9, 2010 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

Also more than just batter's eye

If the park is big it will give up less home runs. This allows pitchers to throw high heat more often since they don’t need to worry about home runs as much. This increases the strikeout rate.

by Edgar for Pres on Sep 9, 2010 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

Everything is interdependent.

Generally, in pitcher’s parks, hitters are aware that it is difficult to produce offense by hitting and so take more pitches trying to work walks. Taking more pitches leads to both more walks and more strikeouts. You see this in Safeco.

Parks with big amounts of foul ground can cut down on strikeouts because more foul balls are caught. You see this in Oakland.

Parks have varying batters’ eyes. That has an obvious effect on all things hitting.

Every factor affects other factors.

by Matthew on Sep 9, 2010 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

Another important factor is air density.

Denser air makes pitches move more, basically making them more “nasty”. This is probably one reason why Safeco Field tends to induce more strikeouts than other parks, and why you see a park such as Coors Field having the opposite effect.

by nathaniel dawson on Sep 9, 2010 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

Plus, to clarify

it has nothing to do with the quality of the home team’s staff, really. These things are determined by comparing how many strikeouts the home team gets at home vs. on the road, and how many times the home team’s hitters strike out at home vs. on the road. The process isn’t perfect — it essentially produces an average, assuming that differences between datasets and between players who are affected to different degrees will come out in the wash, and so applying a single park factor to individual players is effectively to assume that all types of players are affected the same way — but it doesn’t have the flaw you think; different pitching staffs aren’t being compared to each other, but to themselves.

by The Ancient Mariner on Sep 10, 2010 6:28 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Halman currently has a park-adjusted wOBA of .391 per statcorner, good for a 111 wOBA+

You’d think that even though his strikeouts will only be exploited at the next level, he can still be semi-productive at the plate. To be honest, I’d rather watch him hit that half the team at this point.

M's fan in PA, soon to be LA

by perfectstrat on Sep 9, 2010 12:34 PM PDT reply actions  

The ability to make contact and hit breaking balls is very important and as a deficit is wildly exploitable at the MLB level.

If you have giant holes in your swing, pitchers will find it. Chris Davis owned minor league pitching, came up and mashed for a bit and now looks hopeless.

by abender20 on Sep 9, 2010 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

True, but

Davis is a 3B/1B type, not a legit CF. Halman would make an unusual fourth OF, but even if he hits .200/.250/.400, he plays the field well enough to contribute off the bench.

by The Ancient Mariner on Sep 10, 2010 6:41 AM PDT up reply actions  

You clearly didn't watch him face MLB-quality pitching at the last WBC.

Watching Halman take his hacks against pitchers with good secondary offerings and solid FB control is not fun. It’s actually quite brutal. I’m not sure my TV would survive a week of Halman in the majors.

by slamcactus on Sep 9, 2010 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

While true, remember when that took place

Halman had come off of an abysmal year, his confidence was in tatters, they were about to send Roger Hansen to Haarlem to talk to his parents… and he was facing fringy-MLB quality pitching. He would’ve been worse in AAA in Feb/Mar of 2009.

It should be apparent that he’s not the same hitter now that he was then. This is different from saying that he wasn’t MLB quality then and IS now; he’s improved, albeit not enough.

by marc w on Sep 9, 2010 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

I believe so.

I think the awful WBC showing preceded the awful year.

Also I just thumbed through the book with the same article and they said he could contend for a job in 2010. Looks like that didn’t work out so well.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Sep 9, 2010 4:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

He may have improved...

but the numbers suggest he’s hacking just as much as usual. I’m not saying he can’t get better, just responding to the idea that he’d be more entertaining than the current Ms guys. Halman’s ABs in the WBC were cringe-worthy.

by slamcactus on Sep 10, 2010 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

Can Anyone Tell Me About His Defense?

I thought I read somewhere that he was a plus defender, but can’t find it. I also checked Fangraphs but there is no UZR data availible. If he is good enough to be a great defensive outfielder, he could be extremely valuable and maybe we could use him or swap prospects with some team.

by Thurston24 on Sep 9, 2010 12:46 PM PDT via mobile reply actions  

The comments in this thread do not tell me much

I see that one or two people I do not now believe he is a good defender. I do not know their basis for said belief. Unfortunately, I’m pretty new to the site and don’t know the commentors well enough to trust their take. For all I know they could be the best scouts around or blind guys who don’t know what Halman looks like who are laughing at those who are listening to them. If Jay, Matthew, or Jeff said that he was a plus defender, I know you guys know what your talking about, otherwise I’m ignorant.

by Thurston24 on Sep 9, 2010 1:05 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

Never Mind, I'm retarded.

Sometimes you wish you could delete your own comments.

by Thurston24 on Sep 9, 2010 1:09 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

I had to scroll up after reading the piece. I thought it was Jeff... :(

"Tell my tale to those who ask. Tell it truly, the ill deeds along with the good and let me be judged accordingly. The rest is silence." ~ Dinobot

by beastwarking on Sep 9, 2010 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

Halman is the most toolsy Mariner farmhand since Adam Jones

He can do everything but recognize an off speed pitch. It’s probably half the reason he swings at everything. He probably thinks he can hit everything.

by Mr.Phelps on Sep 9, 2010 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

eh...

remember, one of the five tools is a “hit” tool. Halman’s hit tool sucks.

by slamcactus on Sep 9, 2010 4:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

He's not even the strikeout king of the Mariners organization...

Ladies and Gentlemen, Denny Almonte:

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=OF&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=518401

192K’s in less than 500 ABs. And – 25 walks. Albeit with 22 bombs, and he’s 21.

Gregory Halman Jr.?

On the other end of the spectrum, I know its High Desert, but Johermyn Chavez (Who is only 20) seemed to improve over the course of the season with a post ASG OBP of .410 and 29 BB to go with 59 K’s in his last 69 games… Still a little high on the whiffs, but not a killer. I’ll be VERY interested to see what he does next year.

by ICANHIT on Sep 9, 2010 4:17 PM PDT reply actions  

I looked at a list of the leaders in K% in all of the minors for hitters with more than 300 PA at one level

There are 36 players with over a 30% strikeout rate. There are 6 players in the Mariners org with 30+% strikeout rates.

Teams with 6 30%+ players: 1 (Seattle)
Teams with 5 30%+ players: 0
Teams with 4 30%+ players: 0
Teams with 3 30%+ players: 1 (Baltimore)
Teams with 2 30%+ players: 7 (Minnesota, Detroit, Milwaukee, Toronto, St. Louis, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh)
Teams with 1 30%+ players: 13 (LA Dodgers, Kansas City, San Diego, Houston, Chicago White Sox, New York Mets, Colorado, San Fransisco, Texas, Philadelphia, Florida, Cincinnati, Oakland)
Teams with 0 30%+ players: 8 (Everybody else)

The M’s list consists of Kalian Sams (43.7%), Denny Almonte (36.6%), Gregory Halman (36.2%), Joseph Dunigan (35.3%), Carlos Peguero (32.2%), and Matthew Cerione (31.0%).

What the heck is going on? Do we not give a fuck about strikeouts compared to everybody else?

by Edgar for Pres on Sep 9, 2010 6:40 PM PDT reply actions  

Tools!

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Sep 9, 2010 6:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

That's an artifact of

The old Bavasi administration. Presumably, the new administration will care more about those things, and we’ll see some change over time.

by robbbbbb on Sep 9, 2010 8:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

Bavasi hated strikeouts

I think the MLB team had one of the lowest strikeout totals in the league

by Edgar for Pres on Sep 9, 2010 10:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

Cerione is one of Mac's draftees

and Sams, Halman and Peguero were Engle’s international signings; Almonte and Dunigan came from Fontaine’s ‘07 draft, but they’re the only ones of whom you could really say that the Bavasi M’s took this type of player as opposed to a different type of player. Seems to me this speaks more to player development under Bavasi than to what type of player he wanted.

by The Ancient Mariner on Sep 10, 2010 6:39 AM PDT up reply actions  

Its also some of the player development under the current org too though

They’ve had two years and if they wanted to change these guys approaches they could have. I’m sure plenty of the other orgs would have.

by Edgar for Pres on Sep 10, 2010 7:35 AM PDT up reply actions  

You're assuming a certain level of coachability, or ability in general.

It’s not that easy to take guys who have not only been playing baseball most of their lives but have a few years of pro ball under their belts and say “do this thing completely differently from what you’re accustomed to”.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Sep 10, 2010 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

These players are not in the majors primarily because they are striking out so much

I’m sure they have been told that they need to cut down their K% (I hope….) in order to make it to the majors. At some point these guys need to change. Somebody better be trying to change them.

by Edgar for Pres on Sep 10, 2010 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

They probably tried with Kalian Sams

but Kalian Sams can’t figure out why he isn’t in the big leagues, so….

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Sep 10, 2010 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

We're also hitting for more power than any other farm system by a wide margin.

DINGERS

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Sep 9, 2010 11:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

Boy howdy.

Except for the fact that the only launching pad we have is Mavericks Stadium, which is still more of a launching pad than most other launching pads.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Sep 10, 2010 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

One thing...

is that of that group, only Halman and Cerione are remotely prospects at this point.

Almonte has crazy tools, and Sams, Dunigan, and Peguero all have crazy power, but I think it’s safe to say none of those four are even remotely in the Ms plans at this point. They’re just too fundamentally flawed to be considered future major leaguers. Halman and Cerione probably are too, but Halman’s young and close enough and Cerione’s far enough away that they can’t yet be totally written off.

Also, four of the six are international guys (Almonte was born and raised in the DR before coming to the U.S. for high school), and two of them spent their formative years in the Netherlands against not great competition.

by slamcactus on Sep 10, 2010 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

Unfortunately...

Guillermo Pimentel might get added to that group of hacks next year. His 58:5 K:BB in 51 rookie-ball games this year wasn’t exactly inspiring.

by slamcactus on Sep 10, 2010 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

Pass.

Dominican prospect in his first year.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Sep 10, 2010 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

The same sentence applies to all of them

They would be great prospects if they could substantially reduce their strikeout rate. If they are unable to reduce their strikeout rate they will not get much more than a cup of coffee in the majors.

by Edgar for Pres on Sep 10, 2010 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't agree.

Kalian Sams wouldn’t be a great prospect if he reduced his strikeout rate. He wouldn’t even bee a good prospect. Or even a prospect, really. He’s a 1B/DH masquerading as an OF who can swat a mistake pitch a mile. Even with dramatically reduced K’s you’re talking about a guy whose upside is Greg Pirkl.

Peguero and Dunigan are a little less extreme than Sams, but if they cut the K’s down considerably, neither of them is still much better than a left-handed Mike Wilson. Neither of them are good defenders, and they’re both getting pretty old in prospect years.

Almonte would be interesting, but he’d still need to learn to take a walk. If he did that, he’d be a pretty good prospect since he can handle CF.

Halman’s the only one who would be any kind of real prospect just by substantially reducing his K’s.

by slamcactus on Sep 11, 2010 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

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