Today's Fun Fact

by Jeff Sullivan on Sep 7, 2010 1:06 PM PDT in Seattle Mariners Stats

I promise this one's actually fun. All of them, actually. This post includes many facts, and all of them are fun.

Majors	K/uBB	OPS	PA/HR
Bases Empty	2.5	0.716	38.6
Men On	2.1	0.754	42.4

Felix, 2010	K/uBB	OPS	PA/HR
Bases Empty	3.1	0.628	59.1
Men On	4.9	0.551	70.8

Majors	K/uBB	OPS	PA/HR
High Leverage	2.4	0.734	42.2
Medium Leverage	2.2	0.733	41.4
Low Leverage	2.4	0.732	38.2

Felix, 2010	K/uBB	OPS	PA/HR
High Leverage	4.5	0.532	75.0
Medium Leverage	3.8	0.556	87.2
Low Leverage	3.1	0.685	42.7

I know this is a lousy presentation, and for that I apologize, but my brain's still working itself back into shape after a long busy weekend and loquacity is usually the last thing to return. So what are we looking at here?

Across the league, the pitching lines are essentially equivalent in high-, medium-, and low-leverage situations, and the pitching line with runners on is a little worse than the pitching line with the bases empty
Felix Hernandez has been amazing in run-scoring situations

Look at Felix's baserunner splits, then look at his leverage splits. The OPS is heavily influenced by BABIP swings, but the K/BB ratios and home run rates are not, and based on the numbers we're looking at, Felix has been at his most effective when he's had to be. Put another way, if you've watched Felix put guys on and then pitch his way out of it, and you came away wondering if he did that on purpose just to make the game more interesting, the numbers suggest that, sure, maybe.

This isn't an argument for Felix over CC Sabathia for the Cy Young. Sabathia has also pitched well in pressure situations. Rather, this is an observation that Felix has been tremendous when he's had to be tremendous, and it's also something to keep in mind when you use FIP or tRA or what have you in discussing Cy Young candidates. Sabermetric stats are important and useful, but by ignoring context, they fail to paint a full picture. If a guy pitches better with men on or when the game's really close, I feel like he should get credit for that.

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Comments

Looks to me like he is trying harder in high leverage situations,

And saving his energy in low leverage ones.

by ARock on Sep 7, 2010 1:17 PM PDT reply actions

I remember Dave Cameron saying something about how Roy Halladay did the same thing.

I’m summarizing, but he basically said Halladay basically pitches to contact when the bases are empty, then tries for K’s when someone gets on base. If Felix is taking that page from Halladay’s book and can do it successfully, then we’re in for a real treat.

Because we’re rebels. Accurate, intelligent, introspective rebels. And damn proud of it my friend. - CapSea

by JLProck on Sep 7, 2010 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions

Yeah, I can't actually find evidence that Halladay does that

by Jeff Sullivan on Sep 7, 2010 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions

Just because we've never seen a unicorn peeing rainbow boobs doesn't mean it doesn't exist!

I am going to come into your house at night and rec up the place.

by HititHere on Sep 7, 2010 3:46 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs

I'm probably just pulling some made up memory out of my ass.

I’ll admit that I didn’t do any research myself. I’ll look around and see if I can find where Dave said that.

Because we’re rebels. Accurate, intelligent, introspective rebels. And damn proud of it my friend. - CapSea

by JLProck on Sep 8, 2010 12:17 AM PDT up reply actions

Here it is:

Dave Cameron: Both. Roy Halladay is as close to the perfect pitcher that we have, and he exemplifies the “get what you need” approach. When no one is on and he has a lead, it’s groundballs to save his pitch count so he can work deep in the game. Get runners on, and he’ll blow you away to keep the run from scoring. It’s the ideal combination.

So he didn’t exactly say “pitch to contact” and “tries for K’s”, but I don’t think I was too far off.

Dave made this comment in this May 5th chat session.

Because we’re rebels. Accurate, intelligent, introspective rebels. And damn proud of it my friend. - CapSea

by JLProck on Sep 8, 2010 12:25 AM PDT up reply actions

Lots of the great pitchers have said they do that.

Put it on cruise control when there’s nothing on the line, kick it into a higher gear when the other teams threaten. That’s kind of been a baseball axiom for just about forever, I think.

Or maybe Felix just pitches better out of the stretch — there are some pitchers that seem to be that way.

by nathaniel dawson on Sep 7, 2010 4:12 PM PDT up reply actions