Felix Within Spitting Distance of Liriano and Lee for AL Leader in WAR

Notice, he leads the AL in Runs above Replacement (RAR) and WPA. King Felix is now a legitimate Cy Young candidate. Hell yes.

over 1 year ago John Morgan 18 comments 0 recs |

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But..But..He needs more wins!

by Pessimistic Optimist on Sep 6, 2010 5:25 PM PDT reply actions

I've read a couple of arguments that his lack of wins can get him the sympathy vote

on account of how terrible the Mariners have been.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Sep 7, 2010 5:07 AM PDT up reply actions

Pity anything is the best anything.

by Double06 on Sep 7, 2010 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions

That's an interesting point of view

Hey, if it gets Felix more votes, I’m on board. A sympathy vote is still a vote!

Karma police, arrest this man.

by wyte_lightning on Sep 7, 2010 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions

I don't buy Fangraphs WAR for pitchers.

How can Liriano be worth more than Felix in a counting stat when he has pitched 50 less innings? Sorry but that doesn’t pass the smell test with me. I’m hoping over the winter that FG decides to re-evaluate how they work out pitcher WAR.

by EnglishMariner on Sep 7, 2010 9:12 AM PDT reply actions

0.1 WAR is extremely negligible and personally I would consider the numbers to be equal.

In fact, Halladay’s 6.1 and Josh Johnson’s 6.3 are likely worth less than Felix and Liriano’s WAR because of the NL. And Johnson’s 6.3 is further inflated because Dolphin’s Stadium boosts strikeouts by about 10%.

For what it’s worth, B-Ref, which I’m sure you know is RA based instead of FIP, has Felix at 5.5 and Liriano at 4.5. I trust Fangraphs’ calculations more, but we can both agree that FIP-based WAR has a lot of shortcomings.

by Double06 on Sep 7, 2010 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions

Also, tRA-based WAR has Felix at 6.1 and Liriano at 6.0.

So the difference can’t be in the BIP data.

by Double06 on Sep 7, 2010 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions

Has anyone figured out why the extra strikeouts occur?

All I could find was Jeff’s Five Numbers post a while back

by bamfor on Sep 8, 2010 9:43 PM PDT up reply actions

What's the problem exactly?

A pitcher’s WAR doesn’t automatically go up based on the amount of innings you pitch. (It can even go down, see RRS at -1.5 WAR in 96 Innings)

by Janic on Sep 7, 2010 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions

I think English Mariner is arguing that innings pitched should give stats greater weight than the current system dictates

And I see his point. 220 awesome innings from Felix feels like it should beworth a lot more than 170 slightly-awesomer innings.

Actual performance in those innings matters (see RRS).

But it seems to say, having Liriano make 25 starts, and then having 7 starts from Replacement-Level-Scrub, is more valuable than having 32 Felix starts. Logic says Felix is better in those 7 starts than Scrub is in his 7, but FG says Scrub is worth .1 WAR more than felix over those 7.

Of course, I don’t understand the exact WAR formula for pitchers, but this is the logic I’m seeing here.

I am going to come into your house at night and rec up the place.

by HititHere on Sep 7, 2010 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions

Yeah, honestly - Felix would probably get my vote (if it was unbiased) largely based on how deep he goes into games and how good he's been despite racking up all those innings.

He’s a legitimate MVP candidate.

by Kenneth Arthur on Sep 7, 2010 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions

Interesting stats (not sabermetric, mind you) that Drayer pointed out in her last blog:

He’s given up 1 earned run in his last 6 starts, for a 0.20 ERA. 17 quality starts in a row, with a 1.35 ERA in that timespan, and 21 consecutive starts where he’s made it to the 7th inning.

We all know how little ERA actually means, but you don’t rack up a 1.35 ERA over 17 starts without being an incredible badass. As good as our defense is, opponents DO hit the ball to Josh Wilson occasionally.

I am going to come into your house at night and rec up the place.

by HititHere on Sep 7, 2010 3:46 PM PDT up reply actions