How Much Does This AL Cy Young Stat Really Matter?

by Jeff Sullivan on Sep 24, 2010 3:14 PM PDT in Miscellaneous

I think all of us agree that Felix Hernandez has been the most outstanding pitcher in the American League, in terms of his results. He's #1 in innings and #1 in ERA, and though he's #5 in FIP and #3 in xFIP, he's thrown more than the guys in front of him, and his performance with men on base has to count for something. If I put up a poll asking the readers to pick their AL Cy Young, I imagine 99% of you would choose Felix.

But this is something I haven't seen mentioned anywhere. Let's assume, for the sake of simplicity, that the race is down to Felix, CC Sabathia, David Price, and Jon Lester.

Percent of same-handed batters faced:

Felix: 47%
Sabathia: 23%
Price: 23%
Lester: 25%

Felix is right-handed. The other guys are left-handed. As you can imagine, it's a lot easier for a manager to stack his lineup against lefties than it is against righties.

And so, overall, Felix has worked from an advantageous position. Pitchers are better against same-handed hitters than opposite-handed hitters, and Felix has worked with the platoon advantage almost twice as often as his competitors.

Does this matter? How much does this matter?

On the one hand, we care about ease. If one guy throws a shutout against the Mariners, while another guy gives up a run against the Yankees, we'll give the edge to the second guy, because even though he had the slightly worse performance, he faced a much tougher challenge. It's something you adjust for. Ideally, the Cy Young voters would find a way to adjust for pitcher opponent to strip away any advantages or disadvantages.

On the other hand, being right-handed is just a natural advantage for Felix, the same way throwing a mid-90s fastball or dynamite breaking balls are natural advantages. Why should he be penalized for that? It's not like we adjust pitcher results based on their stuff. When we talk about the Cy Young, it's not like we regress guys' numbers to some hypothetical repertoire mean.

Which advantages matter, and which advantages don't?

Maybe it's right under my nose and I don't realize it, but I don't have the answer. Just something to think about as the season winds to a close.

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LHB had an OPS that was 15 pts higher

So that might even it out some.

by Edgar for Pres on Sep 24, 2010 3:44 PM PDT reply actions

And...

RH starters had a 26 pt higher OPS than LH starters.

This point is less important than my first.

by Edgar for Pres on Sep 24, 2010 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions

That because they primarily hit with the platoon advantage

by vivaelpujols on Sep 24, 2010 8:15 PM PDT up reply actions

Felix's Advantages

Felix benefits greatly from the right handed advantage… and the advantage SafeCo Field gives him when facing the majority of those right-handed batters. Some teams have attempted to stack their lineups with lefties against Felix at SafeCo, but they’ve failed to impact Felix’s home numbers much. Lefties have hit Felix better than righties at SafeCo, but nowhere near as good as they’ve hit him on the road. Bad is still bad, and every batter is ata disadvantage having to face Felix at SafeCo Field.

I’m not sure you should call a 90s FB or good breaking stuff a natural advantage… something to normalize out of the discussion of who is the best. Those are attained skills. A pitcher’s ability to attain, hone and maintain those skills and convert them into production on the field is exactly how we should judge a pitcher. When we look at a pitcher’s statistics and take luck out of the equation, that’s exactly what we’re doing. Whether they convert into wins means next to nothing, but Doug Fister doesn’t get more credit for going out there and producing with junk. He gets just the right amount of credit when he pitches well, and when he doesn’t.

However, a left-handed pitcher such as C.C. Sabathia or David Price should have a little extra credit for having a tougher job than Felix Hernandez. If their statistics were equal, you’d downgrade Felix a little for pitching in SafeCo Field and having the handedness advantage, and maybe even not having the stress of a pitching for a contender. But they’re not equal, so it’s going to take a lot of extra credit for Sabathia, Price or Francisco Liriano to convince anyone their tougher road trumps Felix’s dominance.

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Just North of Wrigley Field

by jameslcrockett on Sep 24, 2010 3:46 PM PDT reply actions

I'm not sure I would call having a great pitching arm an attained skill.

It may take honing to utilize the arm’s effectiveness, but having the possibility to throw 90 is a natural skill that most of us don’t possess.

by MT Olson on Sep 24, 2010 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions

the greatest advantage of all

felix doesn’t get to pitch against the mariners, ever. There’s your even playing field.

by tsunamijesus on Sep 24, 2010 4:03 PM PDT via mobile reply actions

interesting stat

I heard today from Mike Salk (i believe) that Felix has more shutout innings than David Price has innings pitched. Wow…

by overmanb on Sep 24, 2010 4:23 PM PDT via mobile reply actions

What is the average platoon split for RHB?

Somehow, I don’t think it is going to be as pronounced as the one for LHB.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Sep 24, 2010 5:05 PM PDT reply actions

BAA for RHB for Felix is .212 for LHB its .214

For Sabathia against LHB .260 against RHB .238
For Price against LHB .206 against RHB .228
For Lester against LHB .219 against RHB .217

Lester is the only one to pitch much better to same handed hitters. Lester and Felix pretty much pitch just as well against either sides. and Sabathia just kind of sucks against anyone. Of course there are other stats you could look at for RHB v LHB but this just kind of shows a good pitcher will get anyone out…and that Sabathia does not deserve to be in the same conversation as the others.

Frye-lock and I'm on top rock you like a cop

by pklym on Sep 24, 2010 6:28 PM PDT reply actions

all for 2010 season

Frye-lock and I'm on top rock you like a cop

by pklym on Sep 24, 2010 6:28 PM PDT up reply actions

This stat shouldn't matter at all!

If the other guys on this list had so much of a disadvantage, they should have switched pitching arms! Ichiro was originally a right handed batter, but switched to lefty for the same reason! These pitchers are just too stupid to take advantage. Felix should get a bonus for having the foresight to throw right handed!

Since the internet can be bad at communicating sarcasm, I should let you know that that’s what that was.

I think the statistic is irrelevant, honestly. I doubt that the voters are going to look at these splits at all. Anyway, Felix is still the best pitcher.

by nemo1 on Sep 24, 2010 10:51 PM PDT reply actions