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I'm still amazed by Ichiro - here are some reasons why

 

I've been noticing the reaction to Ichiro's 10th season of 200 hits is a little - un-amazed, including on the main page at Lookout Landing here where Jeff Sullivan said he feels bad about not being amazed anymore.  I'm still amazed by Ichiro, but I'll admit it takes a little more work.  It's not JUST because he holds the major league record for HBPs by a player born in Japan with 47, though that's usually the focus of my statistical work - it's really the hits.  I'm amazed because it's gotten so hard to compare him to anyone else who played the game.  One of the things we like, especially those of us who are sort of stat-enthusiast, is that the history of the game has given us such a detailed record of what other players have done so we can put current players in perspective to some extent - and then Ichiro comes along and blows everything away.  I would argue, in a phrase that may cause english majors to fall face first on their feather quills, that Ichiro isn't just better than everyone he's playing against now, but he's more better than anyone else has ever been against their competition.  Below are a couple of slightly obscure statistics you might not have seen anyplace else which might give you the idea of why I think that.

Star-divide

First, what's everyone else in the major league's been doing while Ichiro has gotten 2,230 hits (and counting)?  Here are the non-Ichiro leaders in hits since 2001 (as of this morning):

Jeter - 1907
Pujols - 1890
Miguel Tejada - 1854
Michael Young - 1838
Juan Pierre - 1768

So in the span of 10 years, Ichiro has built a lead of 323 hits on his closest competition.  He could have taken a year and a half off and still had more hits than anyone else since he joined the league in 2001.  There has only been one other player to out hit his closest competition by such a wide margin over the span of 10 seasons - Stan Musial out-hit everyone else in the league by 363 hits from 1943 to 1952, but there were a few historical events in those years that might have kept some of Stan's competition off the field.  (He missed all of 1945 himself - out with a conscription.)  The best Pete Rose ever did was out-hit 2nd place (Lou Brock) by 260 hits from 1968 to 1977.  Ty Cobb out hit Tris Speaker by 281 hits from 1908 to 1917, but those are the only players who have ever been 250 hits ahead of everyone else over a 10 hit span - Cobb, Rose, Musial, and Ichiro.  Musial gets a little bit of an asterix for doing it during a span of two military drafts, but all I can say about Ichiro's ten years is maybe all the best American baseball players have gone into mixed martial arts or something.  Or Ichiro's just amazing.

Then there's the 10 consecutive seasons with 200 hits thing - we know that's never been done, and we know no other player has had 2230 hits in any 10 consecutive seasons (Rogers Hornsby has the 2nd best 10 year total with 2085 - so Ichiro beat that by only 145).  So getting as many hits as Ichiro in 10 consecutive seasons is too hard for everyone else, so to make it fair lets compare Ichiro's 10 consecutive seasons with any ten seasons any other player has put up:

Ty Cobb - 2,155 (1907, 1909, 1911-12, 1915-17, 1921-22, 1924)
Paul Waner - 2,117 (1927-30, 1931-34, 1936-27 and either 1926 or 1932)
Pete Rose - 2,114 (1965-66, 1968-70, 1973, 1975-77, 1979)

That's not very close, is it?  Give everyone else their best 10 seasons, and compare them to Ichiro's first 10 seasons, and he's still ahead of them all by 85 hits - plus whatever he does for the rest of the season.

If you want to look at spans of consecutive seasons again, I think it's only fair to give everyone else one extra year.  Sort of a handicap.  Here are the best 11 year spans in baseball history:

Paul Waner* - 2,293 (1927-37)
Pete Rose* - 2,265 (1968-1978)
Willie Keeler - 2,251 (1894-1904)
Rogers Hornsby - 2,248 (1919-1929)

(*- Waner and Rose had other 11 year spans with over 2230 hits, but I'm listing only their best totals)

Ha! Take that Ichiro, those 4 guys beat your ten consecutive year hit total, and it only took them 11 seasons to do it!  Waner got you buy a whole 63 hits!  Ichiro would need another 243 hits between now and the end of next year to break the record for total hits in 12 consecutive season with a full season to spare, and that's probably only a 50/50 chance - so he IS mortal after all!  (Pete Rose and Paul Waner both had 2,473 hits in their best 12 consecutive seasons).

So really - try to keep the amazement alive.  He's not just re-writing the record books, he's rewriting, reformatting, and reprinting them using the ink of the genetically engineered squid-human hybrid pitcher who will be designed in 2015 when computer simulations determine that only a pitcher with at least 5 different throwing arms can shut down Ichiro.  (The Yankees genetic mutation/mad science budget is going to be outrageous in 2015 - new meaning to 'director of player development', and everyone knows Ichiro can't hit 5th handed pitchers.  He kills pitches from the 7th hand though.)  I continue to be amazed, and will continue to believe that he is in fact more better than any other hitter ever has been.

Comment 23 comments  |  27 recs  | 

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A Comparison

May 2011 by Jeff Sullivan - 124 comments

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That is some very interesting stuff. Thanks for posting it..

I keep wondering, since we’ve never seen a player like Ichiro, what he could do in his age 40 season and beyond and when it will end. It would be scary to think how many hits he would finish his MLB career with if this was his 10th season and he started playing when he was 21.

by Kenneth Arthur on Sep 24, 2010 8:03 AM PDT reply actions  

I have a suspicion that if he started in the US at age 21, someone would have ruined him – either a minor league manager or an agent telling him he needed to hit for more power, or messing with his swing, or telling him he needed to take more walks because they’re going to base his salary arbitration at age 26 on his career OBP or something like that.

When I was writing about Craig Biggio a few years ago, I found that he had the 4th oldest debut age for a 3000 hits club member, at 22.5. Nobody has made 3000 hits who debuted in the majors after turning 24. And, the prior record for hits by a player who debuted at 27 was 2051 by Bob Johnson. So when Ichiro gets to 3000 it’ll be unprecedented in that way too.

by plunkeveryone on Sep 24, 2010 8:51 AM PDT up reply actions  

Great article. I liked the squid hybrid.

Here are the non-Ichiro leaders in hits since 2010 2001 (as of this morning):

Thank you, Walter Jones.
Thank you, Ken Griffey Jr.

by thebyron on Sep 24, 2010 8:23 AM PDT reply actions  

Well that was odd.

I apologized for being that guy, then said “One minor typo:”

Whee SBN auto-formatting quirks!

Thank you, Walter Jones.
Thank you, Ken Griffey Jr.

by thebyron on Sep 24, 2010 8:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

Fixed!

I swear I made that mistake 15 times while writing this – the fingers just really want to type 2010 and not 2001.

by plunkeveryone on Sep 24, 2010 8:43 AM PDT up reply actions  

Nice.

Have to point out that Ichiro plays in a longer season than most of the other players mentioned.

by Kermit. on Sep 24, 2010 7:53 PM PDT reply actions  

With modern bullpens he's still amazing.

I really liked your post and am now feeling like a douche for nitpicking your work.

by Kermit. on Sep 24, 2010 7:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

Not only does he play in longer seasons with the at-bat amounts (Ichiro has had roughly 400-500 more PA over the same time span), but he has appeared in more games than all of them, too.

If given the same time, most of those players would have come close to what Ichiro has done, However, it is amazing Ichiro has been so healthy to accomplish those PA and game amounts. He deserves those extra plate appearances with the age difference between those other players over the same time span. Also give him credit for the offenses he has had to play on. If Ichiro plays on the Yankees, his PA numbers probably go up another 500 over the last 10 years.

Imagine if Ichiro was 30 years old finishing his 10th season like Pujols is; Ichiro might have amassed 5000 hits by the time he retired.

Amazing indeed.

by Wilder. on Sep 25, 2010 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Good points, well said.

I spoke without giving the thought due consideration and proper process. And he did throw in an extra season to level the playing field. Also your point about extra plate appearances never occurred to me.

I’ve read at least one sabre article that did a little extrapolation to even out seasons using BAPIP and league averages for the era they were looking at, a few other steps in there I cannot remember. It was a nice piece of work. This post was a nice piece of work.

by Kermit. on Sep 25, 2010 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions  

I thought I read in a statistics book once

that the deviation of talent back in the 1900-1930’s was so much wider than in the 1990’s or 2000’s that the totals for the players hits, home runs, etc.., when offset against the shorter playing seasons, actually averaged out if you’re trying to talk about true talent levels. Meaning, 212 hits in 1930 in the shorter season would have been about what you could expect out of that same player in 2002 in the longer season.

OPS+, ERA+ and WAR usually isolate opposing talent levels to come up with a relativistic expression of performance, but I could swear that I read the above in some statistics book once.

If I was a hungry man with a gun in my hand and some promises to keep...

by misterjonez on Sep 27, 2010 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

I've read some differing perspectives on this over the last 10 years or so.

The disclaimer here being that I read nowhere near the amount of sabre material as many of the more esteemed and knowledgeable members of LL. The one thing I’ve read that I do agree with and understand, is that major stars from the past eras were so much better than their colleagues that they would be able to play in game today. Might have been (likely is?) a Bill James paraphrased quote.

by Kermit. on Sep 27, 2010 7:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

For those who counter with the length of season/PA arguments, consider this.

The pitchers of today are vastly (by vastly I mean that pitchers of the past, even the good ones, might as well have been throwing BP fastballs compared to the pitches thrown today) superior in talent to those in the past. On top of that, pitchers in the AL are superior to those in the NL(as a whole).

Also, scouting is more advanced than ever. There is no surprising anyone anymore. No matter what level you play in (A, AA, AAA, MLB), everyone is scouted. To have one season with excellent stats is nice, but to amass several or in this case 10 consecutive years is simply incredible.

I would wager that those players from the past would see a very noticable drop in their numbers if they played today.

On top of that, Ichiro consider Ichiro’s defensive abilities. The Gold Glove for RF might as well be renamed for Ichiro. There are only two years that Ichiro has not been awarded the GG for RF. For one, he spent half the year in CF and won the GG for CF. That’s a GG for half a year at a position shared with Torii Hunter when he was in his prime. Then the following year, Ichiro spent the entire year in CF and won the GG that year too. Honestly, he could problably play any position on the field and bring home the GG.

Oh, and he can steal a base too.

OOOOOH!!!!! That was NASTY!!!!!!!!

by bmxnw on Sep 26, 2010 9:19 PM PDT reply actions  

Two things - OF Gold Gloves are given by OF, not RF/LF/CF

and while you’re correct about Ichiro being a terrific defensive player, Gold Gloves are a bad way to judge defense – Torii Hunter keeps winning them, after all, and he’s been barely average for years

by seattlebruin on Sep 27, 2010 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

My mistake.

My statement is still valid however.

OOOOOH!!!!! That was NASTY!!!!!!!!

by bmxnw on Sep 28, 2010 9:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

Now, if only they would let him pitch

like he did in the Japanese all-star game. And then if he was willing to participate in the home run derby, we could bring back the amazement.

by infield power on Sep 26, 2010 10:09 PM PDT reply actions  

I don't want him anywhere near a pitching mound

if he damages his arm in a novelty stunt I will be pissed off.

by pdb on Sep 27, 2010 8:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

Ichiro is awesome. Wonderful post! Thank you.

I am still amazed at what he is able to accomplish.

by TrustBaseball on Sep 27, 2010 9:57 PM PDT reply actions  

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