Today's Not Fun Fact

by Matthew on Sep 20, 2010 1:24 PM PDT in Seattle Mariners Stats

The Mariners are much worse at fielding bunts this season.

The light tap of the angled bat against the ball is heard but already Adrian Beltre is sprinting forward. Another foolish hitter has tried to bunt down the third base line. Beltre rockets along the chalk toward the ball. As he nears it, his left foot hits the ground as he bends at the waist to bare hand the rolling ball. As he continues forward and his right foot comes down, Beltre in one smooth motion straightens and whips the ball to first base nearly across his momentum. And the batter is out.

I never tired of watching Beltre play defense and his ability to corral bunts was so formulaic and predictable that I wonder why anyone ever even tried.

That's changed this season. According to StatCorner's numbers, only Kansas City (93) and Baltimore (97) have faced more bunts this season than Seattle (92) in the American League. And Seattle is ahead of only Tampa in turning bunts into outs. 29 of the 92 bunts have gone for a hit. That's 32% of the time. In the previous three seasons, the rates were:

2009: 18% (3rd best in AL)
2008: 23% (5th best)
2007: 20% (4th best)

On a more personal level, look what has happened to Felix Hernandez over this time frame:

2010: 8 hits in 15 bunt attempts
2009: 1 hit in 12
2008: 2 hits in 9
2007: 1 hit in 10

While Jose Lopez hasn't been a total slouch defensively, he is rated fairly pedestrian at fielding bunts. Obviously the entirely of the problem isn't Lopez at third base instead of Beltre. Other aspects of the infield has changed. The pitchers have changed. The sample sizes are very small. The overall point however is that the Mariners have yielded about ten extra hits from bunt attempts this season than they had previously.

For those wondering, Chone Figgins has received decent marks on bunts in the past at third base.

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I was hoping the not fun fact would actually be fun

by Dewey N on Sep 20, 2010 1:29 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs

It didn't matter how many times I saw it, my jaw would still drop to the floor, followed by a soundless, mouthed "Wow"

by nathaniel dawson on Sep 20, 2010 2:06 PM PDT reply actions

So I guess this means that Jose Lopez should lay off the BUNDT CAKE ahahahahahahahahahaha

by JLC on Sep 20, 2010 2:17 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs

So, the question is then what is Jose Lopez so good at at third

One year is not enough and so on and so forth but I am still curious as to which component of his fielding has been keeping his numbers up. Doubt that it’s range. He likely gets some points for arm. He seems to have had good reflexes with line drives, so maybe that? Plus maybe he’s had enough hit right at him to make this season look good?

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Sep 20, 2010 2:39 PM PDT reply actions

Technically, it is range.

Of course, this is why we shouldn’t use some fraction of a year’s UZR to make any judgments. Any number of things could keep his range run number high, from the positioning of the SS to really good luck in batted ball chances.

by marc w on Sep 20, 2010 2:58 PM PDT up reply actions

That's not really the begged question.

Fielding bunts is a small fraction of a 3B’s overall fielding duties

by Matthew on Sep 20, 2010 3:55 PM PDT up reply actions

I think third base probably needs less lateral range and more quick reflexes, which I feel Lopez probably has enough of to be a fine third baseman.

Morgan Ensberg for Manager 2011!
AL Scout on Rendon: "I would peg him as a poor man's Jose Lopez."

by joof on Sep 20, 2010 11:00 PM PDT up reply actions

Boy, wait if we call up Mangini.

Actually, he could be a little bit better but is apparently suffering from a bit of an injury in the latter part of the season. Still hasn’t generally received high marks though.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Sep 20, 2010 3:39 PM PDT reply actions

The best play I've ever seen him make was fielding a bunt.

Poor guy just has really bad hands.

I was thinking the other day (after Mangini made his 2nd error in the PCL series game 3) that he’s actually a worse third baseman than Tui, and how stunning that was. Then I wondered if it only seemed that way because Tui’s big problem was range whereas Mangini’s was his hands; a botched play always looks worse than a play not made at all – this is how Jeter wins fielding awards of course. And because of the Jeter example, I wonder if he’s better than he gets credit for; that scouts and pseudo-scouts like myself see all of these bobbles and drops and it just looks so amateurish that we don’t notice average-ish range or something. I think this is unlikely; he doesn’t compensate for bad hands with amazing feet. But I bet this does happen to young players where you’ve got way more scouting reports than actual data. On the other hand, errors often correlate with good UZRs in the majors because they often come with better range. But there’s no real reason for that to hold in the minors.

FYI, Mangini’s TZ numbers are way, way better than Tui’s. This doesn’t mean much, but it does make me wonder about the visual impact of fucking up easy plays.

by marc w on Sep 20, 2010 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions