Series Preview: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners

by Matthew on Sep 17, 2010 1:30 PM PDT in Seattle Mariners Previews

Seattle: 55-91
Texas: 82-63

	MARINERS	Δ Ms	RANGERS	EDGE
HITTING (wOBA)	-169.1 (30th)	-5.2	25.9 (11th)	Texas
FIELDING (UZR)	11.9 (11th)	0.0	15.3 (10th)	Texas
ROTATION (tRA)	10.4 (15th)	-4.4	35.4 (5th)	Texas
BULLPEN (tRA)	-31.1 (29th)	0.3	28.8 (6th)	Texas
OVERALL(RAA)	-178.0 (28th)	-9.5	105.5 (4th)	TEXAS

The Mariners' offense is on pace for a bRAA of -188 runs by the end of the season. Can they make it to -200? It's going to be really tough but dammit, I believe in this team!

If they average exactly two runs per game the remaining 16 games, the 2010 Mariners will have scored 499 runs.

Fri Sep 17, 19:10: Felix Hernandez vs. C.J. Wilson*

Sat Sep 18, 16:10: Jason Vargas* vs. Cliff Lee*

Sun Sep 19, 13:10: Doug Fister vs. Tommy Hunter

I am conflicted about Cliff Lee pitching. It's nice that he's back in Seattle and I really hope that the crowd acknowledges him. Make him feel loved here, Seattlites. On the other hand, I don't really want to be reminded of him in a Rangers uniform. It's like running into your ex who you still love but dumped you and his/her new squeeze. No matter how unlikely, there's still some harboring of hope and so you want to leave that bridge intact, but there's a limit to how much I can pretend to be happy for you, Lindsey.

Doug Fister has 15 starts at home and 10 on the road. He's pitched 100 innings at home with a 3.4 strikeout to (net) walk ratio. He's pitched 52.2 innings with a 1.8 strikeout to walk ratio on the road. Fister is a ground balling right-hander, exactly the opposite archetype from the pitcher supposed to get a big Safeco boost. That's neat! Also, beware Fister's regression in the future if/when he gets more road starts!

Vargas, meanwhile, who is the fly balling left-hander that Safeco should coddle, has a better K/nBB rate on the road (2.6) than at home (2.2). Not that Safeco's effects are limited to strikeouts and walks--and Vargas' ERA is vastly better at home--I just like that Vargas isn't actually pitching better at home.

Felix Hernandez

Jason Vargas

Doug Fister

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	68%	94	75	60	75
Curve	13%	83	60	50	75
Change	10%	88	75	75	80
Slider	9%	87	70	70	75
Overall	--	--	75	65	75

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	38%	87	50	40	30
Sinker	27%	86	30	65	30
Change	25%	79	75	75	40
Slider	7%	83	20	35	35
Overall	--	--	50	60	30

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	58%	88	25	65	60
Change	19%	81	35	80	60
Curve	8%	74	45	30	75
Sinker	7%	88	25	55	60
Slider	7%	83	35	80	50
Overall	--	--	20	70	65

C.J. Wilson

Cliff Lee

Tommy Hunter

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Sinker	44%	90	35	50	65
Fastball	19%	90	60	70	50
Slider	16%	83	50	40	50
Change	13%	83	35	20	60
Curve	8%	75	45	20	35
Overall	--	--	40	25	75

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	50%	91	70	80	45
Sinker	23%	90	55	80	40
Change	13%	84	60	80	55
Curve	8%	76	65	55	80
Slider	5%	85	35	80	55
Overall	--	--	55	80	50

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	45%	90	40	70	60
Curve	19%	77	50	70	20
Slider	14%	84	25	70	30
Sinker	11%	89	45	60	35
Change	11%	83	45	55	20
Overall	--	--	35	70	35

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Comments

"499 runs" you can do it M's!

So on that note, I was just reading this article that outlines the fact that the M’s are likely to be the lowest scoring team since 1972, which was the year where offenses were so bad, it inspired the DH in the AL.

On one comment I read related to this, the commenter said:

“My brother is big into powerlifting and not at all into baseball. He always maintains that professional sports trainers are pretty clueless with how to handle teams and mainly get results because they already work with a physically talented pool, and he linked me this article:
”http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/01/mariners-say-goodbye-to-their-weight-room/" target="_blank">http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/01/mariners-say-goodbye-to-their-weight-room/
He said, after the season, tell me how awful the Mariners will be at hitting. Obviously, the weight room thing wasn’t the only contributing factor, but I’m sure he’ll laugh when I link him this Posanski article."

Any truth to this? I would think most of the players still do their same routine at home with weights, so taking away the one at the ballpark isn’t going to effect things. However, sometimes the slightest change can throw a player off and the M’s players are having career worst years pretty much across the board…

Today I Found Out

by TIFO on Sep 17, 2010 2:37 PM PDT reply actions

No.

First off, that’s a hyperbolic headline. It’s not true.

Secondly, the program was mandatory for the minor league affiliates (the teams leading MiLB in homeruns), but voluntary for the Mariners, most of whom did not participate.

by Matthew on Sep 17, 2010 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions