Series Preview: Seattle Mariners @ Anaheim Angels

by Matthew on Sep 10, 2010 12:30 PM PDT in Seattle Mariners Previews

Seattle: 55-85
Anaheim: 67-73

	MARINERS	Δ Ms	ANGELS	EDGE
HITTING (wOBA)	-155.6 (30th)	-8.5	-46.6 (24th)	Anaheim
FIELDING (UZR)	11.9 (11th)	1.1	-14.0 (21st)	Seattle
ROTATION (tRA)	12.5 (14th)	-1.2	-13.5 (21st)	Seattle
BULLPEN (tRA)	-28.6 (29th)	-1.0	-6.6 (18th)	Anaheim
OVERALL(RAA)	-159.8 (26th)	-9.6	-80.7 (23rd)	ANAHEIM

The delta column is based on the last recorded figures which was two series ago. The Series Preview did not run last time thanks to the holiday weekend and the early start on Monday.

What, you want more on the Mariners? No. Go pay attention to one of the organizational teams in the playoffs. It's way more fun.

Fri Sep 10, 19:05: David Pauley vs. Jered Weaver

Sat Sep 11, 18:05: Felix Hernandez vs. Ervin Santana

Sun Sep 12, 12:35: Jason Vargas* vs. Dan Haren

It worries me that David Pauley has been so serviceable as a Mariner starter. I don't mind picking up relievers off the scrap heap, but starters? I don't think I will ever trust Pauley. Fun note: By Statcorner, Pauley's groundball rate is higher than Felix's in 2010.

The difference between 2009 Jason Vargas and 2010 Jason Vargas is that this year he is throwing more strikes. He currently possesses the exact same whiff rate (7.7%), but his overall strike rate has risen about four points. His batted balls are very similar. Two outs away from 170 innings on the year, my hope is that Vargas is shut down just as soon as some relief starters can be procured from the minors.

Ditto on Fister as well. Better safe than sorry at this point. They've both established themselves as early favorites for the 2011 rotation. Nothing either does in the next three or four starts will change that. Put Sean White and Garrett Olson into the rotation for funsies!

David Pauley

Felix Hernandez

Jason Vargas

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	42%	89	25	65	60
Change	21%	83	60	45	65
Curve	17%	76	75	20	80
Sinker	12%	89	20	70	70
Slider	8%	83	40	80	75
Overall	--	--	50	40	75

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	68%	94	75	60	75
Curve	13%	83	60	50	75
Change	10%	88	75	75	80
Slider	9%	87	75	65	75
Overall	--	--	75	65	75

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	39%	87	50	40	30
Sinker	27%	86	30	65	35
Change	25%	79	75	70	35
Slider	7%	83	20	40	35
Overall	--	--	50	60	30

Jered Weaver

Ervin Santana

Dan Haren

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	45%	90	70	40	20
Change	16%	80	80	80	45
Slider	16%	79	45	30	40
Sinker	13%	89	60	55	20
Curve	10%	72	65	80	25
Overall	--	--	75	65	20

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	58%	93	40	55	45
Slider	35%	83	75	60	25
Change	7%	85	40	55	45
Overall	--	--	70	65	30

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	40%	91	50	70	30
Sinker	19%	88	70	65	35
Slider	14%	84	70	75	75
Curve	14%	79	50	80	45
Change	13%	85	80	65	75
Overall	--	--	75	75	45

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Comments

Just give them a break and put RRS back in

Put RRS back in for both of them, even. Twice as many chances to turn things around.

by Jeff Sullivan on Sep 10, 2010 12:40 PM PDT reply actions

Felix, RRS, Pauley, RRS, French?

by Kirk on Sep 10, 2010 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions

I thought about that

but honestly, I think I’d rather see RRS get time in the bullpen. 50/50 though and I wouldn’t be upset either way.

by Matthew on Sep 10, 2010 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions

Do you see him as a LOOGY or long man in the long term?

by CMC_Stags on Sep 10, 2010 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't know if this was mentioned on television or radio, but RRS was warming up in the bullpen on Wednesday night in Oakland.

by Joe Metro on Sep 10, 2010 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions

I wish Felix would throw his change 10% more and his fastball 10% less

In Matthew’s system, the change is better than the fastball in every measure. The slider is also better than the fastball in BB, but sliders are generally considered to cause a higher incidence of arm trouble so I’d prefer that percentage not increase.

This also fits with the Fangraphs pitch type values. Here is the pitch type value in runs per 100 pitches for 2010:
FB 1.15
SL 1.48
CB 0.59
CH 2.82

by CMC_Stags on Sep 10, 2010 1:54 PM PDT reply actions

It's tough to play that game.

Is his change up as effective as it is because he throws his fastball 68% of the time? Is his fastball as effective as it is because hitters don’t know when to expect the change?

by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Sep 10, 2010 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions