How Do Hitters Fare Against Really Fast Fastballs?

by Jeff Sullivan on Sep 1, 2010 11:06 AM PDT in Seattle Mariners Stats

I had to go back and watch Aroldis Chapman last night, because all reports said he was amazing, and sure enough, he was amazing. He also made me curious, though, so here are the results of all pitches that PITCHfx has measured at 100mph or above dating back to 2008:

(n = 554)

Strike: 67.7%
Contact: 76.0%
Foul/swing: 46.4%
Batting average: .242 (23/95)
Home runs: 0
Singles: 21

Meanwhile, for the sake of comparison, here are the results of all pitches that PITCHfx has measured between 90-92mph:

Strike: 63.3%
Contact: 84.9%
Foul/swing: 40.1%
Batting average: .330 (940/2853)
Home runs: 118
Singles: 593

Throwing hard helps.

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I don't know what PITCHfx or other objective measures say,

but that 100 mph fastball and slider combo reminded me very much of an inning from the Unit. Looked like there was a lot of horizontal movement on both of them.

by Double06 on Sep 1, 2010 11:18 AM PDT reply actions

That's the sample size

I’ve got 554 pitches over 100mph.

by Jeff Sullivan on Sep 1, 2010 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions

I'm shocked that a FB over 100 mph occurs that often.

by EnglishMariner on Sep 1, 2010 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions

Any idea how many were Joel Zumaya?

I’m fairly sure I remember that at one time, in one given year, Billy Wagner hit three digits more than the rest of baseball combined.

by BigR on Sep 1, 2010 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions

Tons

by Jeff Sullivan on Sep 1, 2010 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions

Any chance you could put out a list of the guys topping 100 or 98 mph?

by yuniform on Sep 1, 2010 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions

Off the top of my head it's like Joel Zumaya, Brian Wilson, Jonathan Broxton, Aroldis Chapman, Bobby Parnell once, and Henry Rodriguez

might be missing one or two guys.

by Jeff Sullivan on Sep 1, 2010 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions

That's for over 100

by Jeff Sullivan on Sep 1, 2010 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions

Walden's average for the year is, like 98.9, so I'd guess he's on there too.

by yuniform on Sep 1, 2010 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions

I have no idea who that is

by Jeff Sullivan on Sep 1, 2010 3:46 PM PDT up reply actions

Henry David Thoreau

Wrote “On Walden Pond”. Was once married to Ted Turner. Lived life in the fast lane, thus the high velocity readings at beatnik clubs.

by nathaniel dawson on Sep 1, 2010 4:44 PM PDT up reply actions

Jordan Walden

He has a FanGraphs page and everything. He plays for the Angels.

by yuniform on Sep 1, 2010 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions

Oh, right, Justin, the singer

There are so many “recording artists”, as they like to call themselves, named Justin, I get them all mixed up.

by nathaniel dawson on Sep 1, 2010 5:02 PM PDT up reply actions

Number of Pitches between 90 and 92mph?

What does n = for the slow guys?

Also, with counting stats, like home runs, knowing n becomes useful to get a sense for the rate, even thoughit’s a comparison to 0% for the fast guys.

by lokiforever on Sep 1, 2010 11:48 AM PDT reply actions

Several thousand

by Jeff Sullivan on Sep 1, 2010 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions

Throwing hard helps,

but so does being a reliever, which most of the hardest throwing pitchers seem to be.

"Seems to me if you bought your Sunday beer on Saturday night, this becomes a complete non-issue."

by Thingray on Sep 1, 2010 11:54 AM PDT reply actions

I thought being a reliever let them throw faster, not the other way around

by Edgar for Pres on Sep 1, 2010 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions

He's not suggesting that it is the other way around

he is saying that gating on pitches 100+ selects for relievers who have a higher whiff rate on average. Well, they have a significantly higher K rate anyhow, and I think that should correlate well with a higher whiff rate but come to think of it I can’t reference any hard numbers.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Sep 1, 2010 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions

Maybe I'm a little confused what you are saying

I think relief pitchers throw harder than starters. Since they throw harder they have higher whiff rates.

I think what was stated above was that relief pitchers throw harder than starting pitchers. Relief pitchers also have higher whiff rates. Therefore pitchers who throw hard are likely relief pitchers and have high whiff rates.

I don’t think relief pitchers have an inherently higher whiff rate. I think they have a higher whiff rate because they can throw max effort (throw faster). I bet a relief pitcher who throws a 90 mph fastball gets the same whiff rate as a starter who throws a 90 mph fastball (on average).

by Edgar for Pres on Sep 1, 2010 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions

Actually I think being a reliever does give you an inherently higher whiff rate on the fastball.

You’re facing hitters who have been timing their swing to a different pitcher with a different delivery and are far more likely to see same handed batters. On top of that there is more competition for bullpens than rotations and the lesser need for secondary stuff in relief work suggests that there is more selection for premium fastballs among relievers.

I don’t have numbers for this unfortunately, and i cant put a lot of time into it right now but I think it is not unreasonable to think relievers will have a higher whiff rate on pitches with a similar velocity as starters.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Sep 1, 2010 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions

Yeah lets just wait for some study to pop up

You are probably right because guys in the bullpen are selected for something special (delivery, movement, etc.).

If we had Fister pitch as a starter or relief pitcher and had him throw the same velocity fastball in each case I still feel like his swinging strikes numbers would be fairly constant.

by Edgar for Pres on Sep 1, 2010 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions