Series Preview: Seattle Mariners @ Baltimore Orioles

Seattle: 46-72
Baltimore: 41-77

MARINERS Δ Ms ORIOLES EDGE
HITTING (wOBA)
-136.1 (30th) 1.4 -64.4 (27th)
Baltimore
FIELDING (UZR) 10.8 (9th) -3.4 -40.2 (30th) Seattle
ROTATION (tRA)
7.0 (17th) -1.3 -52.1 (27th)
Seattle
BULLPEN (tRA)
-25.9 (28th) 0.3 0.7 (16th)
Baltimore
OVERALL(RAA)
-144.3 (26th) -3.1 -156.0 (29th)
SEATTLE

 

 

 

 

 

AHHHHH! Two teams in a row that we're better than? What is the probability?!*

The Mariners stand at 7-6 in the month of August and are at risk of generating their second above .500 record in a month this season after June's 14-13 mark. Luckily the next three opponents are the Yankees, Rangers and Twins. That should put us back in our place.

By the way, if you took the overall runs against average number from above and assumed it captured everything you would want to capture from a true talent standpoint (it doesn't - missing baserunning for one but that's a small factor), the expected record for the Mariners would be 45-73. The Mariners haven't really been unlucky in terms of of turning runs into wins and their BaseRuns matches up quite close with their actual runs scored and allowed. Given how punchless the offense is, they haven't been missing out by stranding too many runners or hitting poorly in  clutch situations.

Where they've been unlucky is almost entirely in getting those hits on their batted balls in the first place. That is what wOBAr looks at and it currently has the Mariners at a touch under 70 fewer runs than they would normally be assumed to achieve based on prior seasons.

*2.3% assuming a non-interleague portion of the schedule. Facts!

Mon Aug 16, 16:05: Doug Fister vs. Brad Bergesen

Tue Aug 17, 16:05: Luke French* vs. Kevin Millwood

Wed Aug 18, 16:05: David Pauley vs. Jeremy Guthrie

This is one boring collection of six pitchers. David Pauley has the best stuff in this group. Mariners! Orioles! Baseball!

Doug Fister Luke French David Pauley
Pitch % Sp K BB GB
Fastball 58% 88 20 65 60
Change 19% 81 45 80 70
Curve 8% 74 50 25 80
Sinker 8% 88 25 50 65
Slider 7% 83 35 80 30
Overall -- -- 20 70 65
Pitch % Sp K BB GB
Fastball 51% 88 20 40 25
Change 26% 80 35 75 20
Slider 16% 79 60 40 20
Sinker 7% 79 80 80 20
Overall -- -- 40 65 20
Pitch % Sp K BB GB
Fastball 45% 89 20 60 40
Change 16% 82 80 40 50
Curve 16% 76 70 25 75
Sinker 13% 89 20 75 65
Slider 10% 83 60 80 75
Overall -- -- 55 50 60

Brad Bergesen Kevin Millwood Jeremy Guthrie
Pitch % Sp K BB GB
Fastball 39% 90 25 80 45
Slider 25% 82 35 50 80
Sinker 23% 89 25 50 65
Change 12% 83 25 45 65
Overall -- -- 25 65 75
Pitch % Sp K BB GB
Fastball 51% 90 50 70 50
Sinker 16% 89 30 40 40
Slider 15% 85 30 75 35
Curve 9% 73 65 40 40
Change 8% 83 30 30 65
Overall -- -- 35 55 45
Pitch % Sp K BB GB
Fastball 60% 93 45 40 50
Slider 20% 84 30 55 35
Change 13% 85 45 65 50
Curve 5% 75 20 35 30
Overall -- -- 30 45 40
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