Josh Lueke's Tacoma Debut Tonight
by Jeff Sullivan on Jul 31, 2010 11:31 PM PDT
in Seattle Mariners Good News
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PrintLueke faced the 3-through-9 hitters of the Reno lineup, and this is what he did:
- swinging strikeout
- pop out
- swinging strikeout
- line drive
- weak comebacker
- pop out
- called strikeout
- swinging strikeout
Two innings, four strikeouts, 25 pitches, 21 strikes. And he assumed a pretty high-leverage situation to begin, so it's not like this was mop-up duty. That's a hell of a way to get started. Even setting aside what he did in A-ball, Lueke has now racked up 44 strikeouts and five walks in 28 innings against advanced AA/AAA competition. And he's not doing it as some baffling junkballer. Lueke throws at least two legitimate Major League pitches, and arguably three.
I know Josh Lueke is a relief prospect, and we should all be wary of relief prospects. This guy, though, is about as good as they come, and he's got future closer written all over him. He might even be our best closer right now.
Josh Lueke. Believe it.
(Fun side note: Tacoma's starter tonight was Yoervis Medina, an emergency call-up from short-season Everett. He wasn't expected to do much more than soak up a few frames and keep it close. He wound up with 5.2 shutout innings. Baseball!)
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Does anyone else have mixed feelings about him?
Even if he’s the next J.J. Putz, it’s never not going to be there.
Here's what I'll say
Most baseball players are muscular, arrogant, aggressive morons. The problem with holding Leuke’s transgressions against him is that in reality there is simply no way that he’s one of the only baseball players that has done some type of horrible, illegal action. He’s really just the only one that has been caught.
In my personal life, Leuke and I would not be friends. In the world of baseball, my assumption is that everyone but Griffey has done terrible, terrible things, and we are simply lucky to not know about them. My baseball related judgments are based on the legal system. Leuke is not in prison, ergo I will support him as a baseball player.
I don’t know how much sense that makes but that is how I’m going to view this situation and others.
...and now I'm here
by CapSea on Aug 1, 2010 1:47 AM PDT up reply actions 10 recs
I think that's probably too hard on Lueke
and others, for that matter . . . remember, we know what the accusation was, not what really happened. He pled down so that the whole thing would be over and he wouldn’t have to face a trial, and even at that he did not plead guilty, he pled no contest. We don’t really have any certainty over what he actually did, or why, or under what circumstances. Which leads to this, where I agree with you completely: we don’t really know that he’s any worse than anyone else. We just give people (in general, not just athletes) too much credit for not getting caught.
by The Ancient Mariner on Aug 1, 2010 6:30 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
On the other hand...
(Suppose for a moment that Lueke did something pretty horendous.) Would you feel better about this knowing that many more people are like him than you previously thought? That seems to indict everyone else, not exculpate Lueke. If we’re giving people too much credit for not getting caught, doesn’t that just mean Lueke comes out better in the relative comparison because instead of saying “Lueke 0, Everyone Else 7” we’re saying “Lueke 0, Everyone Else 4”. Lueke still gets a 0 either way. The relative comparison doesn’t really make me feel better about the guy. (Again, assuming the worst. I tend to agree with you that our criminal “justice” system provides strong incentives for people to plea bargain and that their pleas are thus evidence of their tactical reasoning rather than their guilt or innocence.)
Let's not go down this road again, hey?
by abender20 on Aug 1, 2010 8:51 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Huh?
I think you might have misunderstood.
"Than I previously thought"?
Apparently, sir, you mistake me for an optimist. I’m a pastor, I hear a lot of things from a lot of people that most of the world would never guess . . . Really, the point is this: everybody does ugly stuff, some get caught, some don’t — including that sometimes people do things they regret and decide to blame somebody else; which means that an unproven accusation doesn’t really tell us anything. We simply do not know anything about what happened except that sex was involved in some fashion; and the fact that the prosecutors didn’t just plead the case out but didn’t even insist on a guilty plea — they took about the most minimal concession imaginable to let Lueke go — is a pretty strong hint that they didn’t know either.
The only real conclusion we can draw here is that people are messed up and messed-up people get into messes . . . and that’s just not news, and absent a pattern of conduct (and it clearly is absent, or he’d be in jail), it’s not really reason to feel any differently about Lueke than one would otherwise. It’s clearly safe to say that the guy’s no super-saint, but none of us imagined he was anyway; beyond that is, at least for now, beyond our ability to know or even guess. As it is with most people; it’s just that most people don’t do much in public to remind us of that.
by The Ancient Mariner on Aug 1, 2010 9:08 AM PDT up reply actions 15 recs
What?
So we should ignore criminal behavior because other criminals have gotten away with it before?
I’m certainly willing to give Lueke to benefit of the doubt because we don’t know the facts of the story, but I don’t understand the perspective you seem to be suggesting in your first paragraph. Should we ignore what Michael Vick did because another athlete has probably gotten away with what he did at some point? How about Mike Tyson? Our judgments of people, public figures or not, are informed by what we know of them. The more we know of them the better we can discern their character. Ignoring what we know about one person because we have incomplete knowledge of an entirely different person makes no sense. Obviously I’m taking this to the extreme, but I wouldn’t let a child molester babysit my son because there are people out there who have gotten away with child molestation.
Perhaps I’m misinterpreting what you were arguing, if so I apologize. In any case, Lueke seems to be a hell of a pitcher, I hope he keeps his nose clean and helps bring this sorry franchise back to winning ways.
Please, please, please just stop bringing this up.
I have no idea what happened that night. Nor do you. Nor does anyone here except for Josh Lueke and his Bakersfield Blaze teammates. Let’s just leave it to Geoff Baker to incessantly bring up his past transgressions, while we enjoy the fact that he very well may be the next shutdown closer at the big league level.
I'm not sure they know either.
The problem is, this has been reported as news, therefore people think it’s information, therefore they try to draw conclusions from it. It’s hard to look at something and recognize that it does not actually provide meaningful knowledge, and thus that we cannot draw meaningful conclusions from it . . . that’s an intellectual discipline, and not one to which people are trained. Maybe this can be a teachable moment.
by The Ancient Mariner on Aug 1, 2010 9:11 AM PDT up reply actions
Accepting of *what*?
It all boils down to “we don’t know.” We don’t know if the accusation was true, and it seems pretty clear that the prosecutors didn’t either; when it comes to anything severe enough to warrant mixed feelings, there’s no solid ground, just a decision to put full faith in the accuser and none in him. Would you be as quick to jump to conclusions if he weren’t an athlete?
by The Ancient Mariner on Aug 1, 2010 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions
Who is whom?
You don’t know. You know he can throw a baseball, and you know an accusation was made. The former gives you an idea what he might be able to accomplish, but nothing about his character; the latter tells you . . . what? Nothing solid. It’s a data point, but while it certainly says nothing good about him, it does not for certain say very much bad about him, either. Let those over 21 who’ve never gotten blasted and had sex cast the first stone, because that’s all we know for sure that Lueke did; any other conclusion rests not on evidence, but on your biases and prejudices.
All we can do is suspend judgment, and that has zero to do with Lueke’s fastball, slider, or control. It has to do with the fact that we don’t have enough facts to do otherwise. If and when we get more facts, we can re-evaluate. For now, fairness demands that we accept that we do not and cannot know, and that we should not act as if we do.
by The Ancient Mariner on Aug 1, 2010 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions 7 recs
You're right, we really don't know what happened in Tacoma last night.
Maybe he struck out four batters and maybe he didn’t. I wasn’t there, many of you weren’t there so how can we be so certain? We’re putting a lot of faith in the radio broadcast, reporter’s line and eyewitness accounts.
It's too bad LL doesn't have an edit function where you can delete comments after they're posted.
This might be one where you wish you had that option.
by nathaniel dawson on Aug 1, 2010 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions
We do know what happened in Tacoma, because there were eyewitness acounts, radio broadcasters and reporters present
Whereas in Lueke’s case, there was no one else present.
by Fuckmikereilly on Aug 1, 2010 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Hey so here's an idea
How about everyone just stops talking about it? Let’s treat this like we treat politics and religion and other highly contentious issues people have a tendency to get righteous over and everyone just shut the hell up about it, because this type of discussion is exactly the kind of completely unproductive yet pervasive argument those rules were put in place to avoid. Crime and punishment and what punishments are appropriate for what crimes and how we should treat criminals post-release and such; These are all political issues that have no place here, anyways.
by OlSalty on Aug 1, 2010 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions 10 recs
My point is that we're all willing to accept these accounts as proof of Josh Lueke being in Tacoma last night.
But suddenly turn into philosophers saying that we can’t really know what happened on this other night, even though we have much more reliable evidence.
No, we don't
We have far, far less evidence, and what we do have is far less conclusive. Which is the point.
by The Ancient Mariner on Aug 1, 2010 4:59 PM PDT up reply actions
You are seriously mistaken.
And I’d like this not to go any further. I’m all for tolerating differing opinions but this is just ridiculous.
I was wondering how long this would take.
As it turns out, one comment.
Can we also put to rest the whole “he’s going to be traded somehow before spring training because the Mariners would never allow this to happen” thing to rest? It’s getting tedious.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Aug 1, 2010 9:22 AM PDT up reply actions
Obviously, they traded for him once, knowing what was known publicly.
They’re not going to have any trepidations toward playing him.
I can't resist clicking "Rec" when I see a post with four [of them] already.
by thehemogoblin on Aug 1, 2010 10:21 AM PDT up reply actions
He's a baseball player in the Mariners organization.
I will root for him to be a good player. That’s it.
This is pretty damned simple.
Committed crime.
Got caught.
Got punished.
Did his time.
Debt paid to society.
That’s it. It’s over. Shut up about it.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Aug 1, 2010 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions 7 recs
I think some people really disagree about the simplicity of it.
For some people, sexual assault is some thing that’s victimized them, or someone they love. For those people, it’s not simple. They don’t think sexual assault creates a debt you can pay back, they way property damage can be repaid. I can’t really speak to it myself, but I think it might be a little quick to call it “simple.” Even for those not personally affected by sexual assault, I can see (and am sympathetic with) the idea that it’s among the most serious of crimes and perhaps not completely forgivable. The very reason this discussion has occurred, and the reason it will occur again, is that it is not simple.
Okay then... since there apparently is no justice in our current system that would satisfy these people.
What do you do about it? And I mean “you” in the general sense, not you specifically (assuming you’re not one of the aforementioned).
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Aug 2, 2010 2:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Then they have a problem with the legal system, not with Lueke.
Which is clearly encroaching the “no politics” rule of the site.
Having an actual legitimate close would be awesome.
This trade seems better as time goes on.
Except the part where Smoak was awful, and then demoted?
by Fuckmikereilly on Aug 1, 2010 1:20 AM PDT up reply actions
If I wasn't aware of his likely talent level.
I would have been more worried.
Saunders was awful in his first call up too.
Hard work never killed nobody, but I won't take my chances.
I know, all I'm saying is that the trade hasn't been all awesome and smiles so far.
But it’s been a matter of weeks and I still love Smoak and think he will succeed.
by Fuckmikereilly on Aug 1, 2010 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't know, so far I'm liking every piece we got in that trade
Smoak and Beaven are good prospects, obviously, but both the “throw-ins” seem like they have a very good chance to be better than throw-ins.
This is probably...
A reference to the frequently aforementioned legal issues in Lueke’s past.
Monday is Pineda day and on Tuesday Beavan is starting
Trying not to get too excited about M’s prospects, but, hey, playoffs!
I really like the sound of "Pineda Day".
I mean, I know we already have Felix Day, but throwing your hands in the air and shouting “Yay! Felix Day!” doesn’t sound as festive as “Yay! Pineda Day!”
You're dead to me.
Its pretty easy not to get excited about Beavan
He has a low, low ceiling unless his stuff improves.
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Aug 1, 2010 8:08 AM PDT up reply actions
Ehh, I wouldn't say that
Even if his stuff doesn’t improve, with normal development, he could well be a solid starter in the middle of the rotation, and with his build, probably a guy who can give you 200+ innings . . . that’s a very valuable pitcher. Given that his velocity has been slowly but steadily coming back up and that he’s proven to be remarkably coachable, it seems likely that his ceiling will end up higher than that. No, he’s not an ace, and he’s never likely to be one, so I can see your point about not getting excited; but how much better would this season have been if we had another guy who could give us ~7 innings of league-average pitching every fifth day?
by The Ancient Mariner on Aug 1, 2010 8:25 AM PDT up reply actions
You could say that about Cliff Lee in 2006.
Variance in pitching development is huge.
And also pretty unexpected
Most pitchers that become quality Major League pitchers show that quality in the minors. It could happen with Beavan, but you could say the same thing about every player in the Mariners’ system. He isn’t totally without promise, but I look at him much the same way as Bearskin — there just isn’t much at this time to get excited about.
by nathaniel dawson on Aug 1, 2010 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions
Really?
He’s in AA at 21, running a K/BB over 6 and a FIP below 3 (2.88 if I did my math right, which I probably didn’t). He throws in the low 90s, commands his fastball, and has been regaining velocity this season to the point where he’s been touching the mid-90s. He also has a change and a slider, which seem to be improving, and he’s shown the willingness to work and listen to his coaches in order to get better; as such, there is reason to think that those pitches will continue to develop. He’s big, durable, and has a lot of endurance. Again, no question, he’s not an ace, but how does that qualify as “not much to get excited about”?
by The Ancient Mariner on Aug 1, 2010 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
He's starting to throw near mid-90's again?
You make a pretty compelling argument.
Perhaps it’s just a bias of mine, but I don’t get too excited by pitchers in the minors that don’t have high strikeout rates. That’s really the main reason for me. The great walk rate is nice to see, certainly something to get encouraged about, but without the ability to generate a lot of K’s, I’ll be skeptical until I see him increase the K rate or have sustained success in the Majors.
by nathaniel dawson on Aug 1, 2010 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions
93-94ish, so I hear.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Aug 1, 2010 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions
The K rate is a concern, I agree
but the walk rate is low enough that he should be able to survive that; and as he keeps working on the change and the slider, if he can turn one of those into a swing-and-miss pitch, his fastball command is good enough that he’ll be able to throw them out of the zone and send batters fishing. He’ll have room to take the extra walks in exchange for the strikeouts.
by The Ancient Mariner on Aug 1, 2010 5:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Holy shit! Josh Lueke's name has been mentioned! Quick! Somebody bring up the rape stuff!
You're dead to me.
Hopefully they'll market him better than Texas did
by OlSalty on Aug 1, 2010 1:49 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Many will be going to box, huh?
Milton Bradley apologist
by sanford_and_son on Aug 1, 2010 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions
He'll need some kind of "Mea culpa" interview,
perhaps blaming alcohol (and from what I read of the incident, a great deal of alcohol was involved). It’s going to be tough though. Imagine the receptions he might receive in stadiums known for aggressively hostile fans.
If there is nuance to his situation which might lead Seattle fans to somewhat forgive him, none of this nuance will interest fans out on the road.
ignacio
Said aggressively hostile fans will presumably be unaware of his minor league history
How much crap did Jarrod Washburn get about his accusations?
by Jeff Sullivan on Aug 1, 2010 2:08 AM PDT up reply actions
I think there should be more fan outcry about the "RBIs for Literacy" program the Mariners are involved with this year
because at this rate there are going to be a lot of kids who can’t read good.
by RustyJohn on Aug 1, 2010 2:10 AM PDT up reply actions 11 recs
Yeah, they probably won't care
unless he gives them some other reason to hate him.
by The Ancient Mariner on Aug 1, 2010 7:06 AM PDT up reply actions
I was trying to find some video of him and failed
Does anybody have a link?
Watched him pitch in Tennessee last week.
He just looked bored out there with how easy he was dealing. Pringles Park’s gun said he was hitting 98 mph. He certainly passes the untrained eye test. He “looks” like a badass in total control out there.
Fear the NPE
by thewyrm on Aug 1, 2010 7:37 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
Also in that game:
Beavan went 7 strong innings and it seemed like Lawton was on base all game. A pretty good night for the Cliff Lee trade boys.
Fear the NPE
by thewyrm on Aug 1, 2010 7:42 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Ackley seems pretty comfortable in AAA as well
this is it. This is all we have.
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Aug 1, 2010 8:09 AM PDT reply actions
Also
Career FIP vs LH hitters (2.65) is lower than vs RH hitters (2.99). A lot of fastball/slider guys have big platoon splits. Lueke does not exhibit any at all.
The “Shawn Kelley with better velocity” comp sounds pretty accurate to me.
Taijuan Walker
Does anyone know why Taijuan Walker has only made two appearances in the Rookie Arizona League?
It's been the same with a lot of the younger pitchers drafted this year.
I don’t know what’s going on exactly, but in a lot of the cases the pitchers were known to have issues with their mechanics or their secondary offerings that needed to be worked on. My own speculation is that he and the others are doing a lot of work on the sides, testing it in games, then going back and working again as necessary.
There’s been no report of injury, at least.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Aug 1, 2010 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions
He might have done something horrible...
However if there has been a character change, and I fully believe that the FO believes there has been and his Twitter account makes him look like a mini-Jesus, then I wish him nothing but success here in Seattle.
You got slurved!
That's overrating relievers
either that or projecting both Smoak and Beavan to disappoint . . . but he looks like he should be a useful player.
by The Ancient Mariner on Aug 1, 2010 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Do you thin Smoak just doesn't like playing baseball or something? What do you mean exactly by burn out?
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Aug 2, 2010 7:42 AM PDT up reply actions
Well, where there's Smoak, there's fire and...
GOD WHY DID HE HAVE TO SAY BURN OUT
ARGH
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Aug 2, 2010 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions
If you had Josh Lueke
over Justin Smoak in the “most annoying jokes” category, good on you.
by killer_ewok18 on Aug 1, 2010 12:26 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
I've still got Matt Lawson on fantastic odds
Just you wait…Matt Lawson/Matt Lawton and “he laid down the Law, Son!” jokes are going to be all the rage in 2011.
by Fuckmikereilly on Aug 1, 2010 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Since the trade:
Cliff Lee: 5BB 29K
Prospects: 2BB, 52K
Clearly we won the trade.
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Aug 2, 2010 7:45 AM PDT reply actions
Balls I forgot Lawson
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Aug 2, 2010 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions
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