39-65, Whatever
It's an interesting disconnect, the one between your eyes and your brain.
I can sit here and talk about how bad this team is until the cows come home, have babies, raise them for 18 years, send them off to college, and wait for those baby cows to come home again. I can, and I have. I don't think I've done a whole lot of actual analysis lately, but I know I've spent hours upon hours investigating all the different ways this team is terrible. Or at least, all the different ways I could think of, a sum total of ways which I'm sure the Mariners exceed.
And more than anything else, it's the offense. Sure, there have been other weaknesses, but the biggest part of the team's -113 run differential is the fact that it can't score runs, ever, at all. I talked about it this morning, but did you know that the Mariners are on pace to score fewer than 550 runs this season? 536, to be precise. 536 runs. The 2003 Detroit Tigers - the 2003 Detroit Tigers who lost 119 games - scored 591 runs. We're on pace to beat that. By 55 runs.
55 runs, by the way, is one more run than the Mariners have scored since July 8th.
I know this. I know this more than anybody ought to know this. I know, in my heart, exactly how bad this offense has been. I know that the offense has had an OPS under .600 in July. I know that Chone Figgins has struggled. I know that Casey Kotchman has struggled. I know that Franklin Gutierrez has struggled. I know that Russell Branyan hasn't quite been himself. I know that Josh Wilson has struggled. I know that Jack Wilson has struggled. I know that Jose Lopez has struggled. I know that Ichiro has struggled. And on, and on. I know. I watch this team all the time. I watch them fail to generate run-scoring situations, and I watch them fail to convert what run-scoring situations they get themselves into.
I know for a fact that this team can't score runs. I know for a fact that this team is on pace to make history, or at least recent history, by failing to such an extent that the failure becomes the achievement. I know that, when other people look at the Mariners, they laugh at them the way Matthew and I would laugh at the Astros. The way Matthew and I will continue to laugh at the Astros. My brain has made no effort to shield me from understanding the truth depth of how bad this offense sucks.
And yet, on an afternoon like this one, TheRealMariners can go on Twitter and post a lineup like this one, and I can look at it, and I can think, "well that's not so bad."
Objectively, this lineup is bad. Objectively, this lineup might be worse than that. Four members of this lineup have an OPS over .700. One member of this lineup has an OPS over .752. There's not much in the way of on-base ability. There's not much in the way of power. There's not much, period. But the eyes don't see that. The eyes see names, and they recognize the good ones while glossing over the bad ones. More, they associate names not with their failures, but with their successes. Josh Bard isn't a backup catcher. Josh Bard is a switch-hitter who hits to the gaps. Chone Figgins isn't a disaster. Chone Figgins is the guy he was with the Angels. Josh Wilson is still on a hot streak. Franklin Gutierrez can hit the ball a mile. Jack Wilson's got dynamic contact ability from the bottom of the order. And so forth.
The eyes see what they want to see. They see what they want to see, even in the face of unthinkable, historically significant evidence to the contrary. I can't help it. I can't make my eyes think the way my brain thinks. I've put a lot of information about this team into my brain. Probably too much of it. But that information never gets relayed to the face. Or at least, never to the eyes. It does get relayed to the mouth, in the form of a grimace.
You know why I'm not a big fan of Gold Gloves? You know why I'm not a big fan of player polls and managerial All-Star selections? You know why I'm so committed to using the numbers? Because eyes are stupid. They're stupid, and there's nothing you can do about it. My eyes - these eyes of mine, that I even improve by inserting contact lenses every day - saw today's Mariner lineup and thought, "well that's not so bad." I might be better off blind.
34 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
When is the last time a team has been on pace to score less than 550 runs after 104 games?
by lailaihei on Jul 30, 2010 11:10 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
Im just wondering if teams on pace for under 550 at this point in the season usually beat that pace eventually.
We are on pace for a historically bad offensive season, but I don’t believe the offense can stay quite this pathetic.
by lailaihei on Jul 30, 2010 11:16 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
You might recognize this as the concept known as 'regression to the mean'
by Jeff Sullivan on Jul 30, 2010 11:17 PM PDT up reply actions
I know, I'm just curious as to whether being this bad for 104 games is historic.
Or whether it’s just if we keep this pace. It’s like that post over on The Book Blog. Halladay being on pace for 30 wins after a
month sounds impressive until you see that a pitcher being on that pace isn’t too out of the ordinary.
by lailaihei on Jul 30, 2010 11:27 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I don't know
Here, let me guess. Being this bad after 104 games is still bad but more frequently achieved than being as bad as our team pace.
by Jeff Sullivan on Jul 30, 2010 11:29 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Lasik and career years for everyone!
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
But in a way, that's the best thing about baseball. The bad is baaaaaaaad, but when your team is good, there's just nothing better.
Baseball will always give us hope and make us shrung and say “you never know, something new happens everyday.” Without that teeny tiny glimmer of hope , no one would ever watch. There would be no point.
I've wondered about this. I think the process is actually as important as the winning.
But that process has to include some pieces that are exciting and special, performing up to their potential. Like Felix+Lee headlining a rotation. Watching those two guys pitch was pretty awesome, even if the offense was putrid because, well, Ichiro!
But I’m afraid that without four or five players who are legitimately awesome (or actively developing into something legitimately awesome, more like Saunders than Smoak), it’s really hard to maintain any kind of interest in the team.
All of that said, this offense is really bad. Historically bad, probably, considering how much money we’re spending. It’s just unacceptable how bad they’ve been.
If I was a hungry man with a gun in my hand and some promises to keep...
Yes, I understand. Our hitting is unbelievably horrible
But I have a bottle of scotch bet with my brother the D-Backs fan on who will win more games. I should win that bet, right?
It will go down to the end
The good thing is we can tell stories about our crappy teams, and it’s “oh, you think YOUR team sucks? Well, let me tell you….”
by East Bay Ray on Jul 30, 2010 11:49 PM PDT up reply actions
You can always get the last word by comparing how our 2001 seasons ended.
If I was a hungry man with a gun in my hand and some promises to keep...
Imagine following the Mariners without Ichiro and Felix,
while playing in the same division as the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays.
If I was a hungry man with a gun in my hand and some promises to keep...
Ye ol' Tigers
Good Lord, the 2003 Tigers had a -337 run differential. At 591 RS and 928 RA they basically explored two ends of a spectrum in one season. The team went as low as 80 games under .500. Fascinating.
With the 536 runs pace, that puts us 135 runs fewer than the 2008 team. We’ve found a way to put out an offense that is monumentally worse than sending out a combination of Sexson, Vidro, Bad Johjima, Yuni, Balentien, Cairo, Bloomquist, LaHair, Jeremy Reed, Brad Wilkerson, etc.
The 2003 Tigers had no pitching whatsoever
…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell
by Marinerfanjake on Jul 31, 2010 12:42 AM PDT up reply actions
The second paragraph is what boggles my mind.
This lineup has so much more actual talent in it than the 2008 lineup yet somehow the 2010 lineup is performing so much worse.
by Hopefulmsfan on Jul 31, 2010 2:57 AM PDT up reply actions
This team needs to practice more situational hitting.
...and now I'm here
and by that I mean I want every player to punch Lopez in the boob.
...and now I'm here
the scary thing is most of lineup will be here next season
Starters atleast, only lopez, kotchman, Sweeney, possibly branyan and bard will leave. We need to get 30+ wins better by replacing an infielder, a backup third baseman, a DH and possibly a left fielder. Objectively that seems pretty damn difficult with the upcoming free agent class and the team’s spending limits, but as a fan I have completely unfounded faith in the future.
Peace, Love and West Coast Hip Hop, Go Mariners!
How do you know that most of the lineup will be here next season?
How do you know they won’t bring Branyan back? How do you know we won’t trade for any other starters? Why are you afraid of having to watch Saunders, Guti, Ichiro, Smoak, Figgins, and possibly Ackley? I’m just saying, why make claims like “most of the lineup will be here next season” if they’re unsubstantiated? Last year we had Endy Chavez, Griffey, Yuni, Cedeno, and Johjima get significant playing time. Roster turnover can happen fast.
by BrettJMiller on Jul 31, 2010 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions
I had to look, because my eyes kept seeing something and I had to know.
I was thinking… “God we swing and miss a lot.”
The truth is, we’re actually 12th lowest in the league at swinging strike rate. So, close to middle of the road.
Contact rate? 12th highest in the league. Close to the middle of the road.
Strikeouts? 13th highest.
I don’t think I have anything.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jul 31, 2010 6:28 AM PDT reply actions
And people wonder what drove me into field
statistics and metric valuation…
People lie to you the most, your eyes and your brain can lie to you a lot, but it takes a supreme of effort to make complex numbers sets lie to you…
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
How can you not love Jim Thome.
“I just eat. I’m not a supplement guy. I try and get in shape, try to get ready to go.”

by 










