Today's Fun Fact
The Seattle Mariners, as of this writing, have hit a league-worst 62 home runs through 100 games played. Aside from standing as a handy conversion between kilometers and miles, this ratio also puts the M's on pace for a nice, round 100 home runs at year's end.
100. The Blue Jays are on pace for 246. 100, for a team, is not altogether unheard of. The Mets just hit 95 a year ago. The Giants hit 94 the year before that. But those are National League teams, stupid teams playing with stupid rules to make the game more stupid. The American League's a different story. And to find the last American League team to finish a year with 100 or fewer home runs (in a non-strike season), you have to go all the way back to 1992, when the Angels hit 88, the Red Sox hit 84, the Brewers hit 82, and the Royals hit 75.
So now the question becomes: will the Mariners do it? "Do what?" you might ask, since I didn't really lay anything out, but everybody likes the way '100' feels when they roll it around in their brains, so let's go with that. Will the Mariners manage to hit triple digits, or will they fall woefully short?
For the curious, here's how they've been doing:
April: 9 homers in 23 games
May: 21 in 27
June: 19 in 27
July: 13 in 23
They bumped up their rate for a little while, there, but they're back down in July, as 13 in 23 is a 92-dinger pace over a full season.
I remember talking about this with Matthew in podcasts during spring training. We joked about the 100-homer figure, but when we broke things down player by player, we figured the M's would be able to exceed it by a healthy margin. Trouble is, we didn't figure that, come the end of July, they would've received a grand total of six home runs from Ken Griffey Jr., Jose Lopez, Chone Figgins, and Jack Wilson. That's kind of thrown a wrench in the works, forcing us to confront this issue once again. Sure, the M's have Branyan now. Sure, they have Smoak, and Saunders, and a slumping but moderately powerful Gutierrez. But they've also managed just two home runs in the last nine games, and can't count on much from several spots in the lineup.
So, because I can't look into the future, this calls for a poll. What I've discovered recently is that polls work as conclusions for the lazy writer. I wish I would've picked that up in high school. My papers would've been way more inclusive.
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We did indeed go player by player during a podcast to see if we'd clear 100.
I think we decided they’d end up around 120 or so
I think Smoak, Saunders, and Branyan will put us over the top.
Just barely. I predict 106 total home runs.
Mariners/D Broncos/BSU Broncos fan in Seattle
The first rule of Lookout Landing is...
I voted Yes
Only because Halman will hit 10 dingers in his September callup, convincing Wakamatsu to platoon him with Saunders for the first two months of next season.
With the M’s you have to envision multiple worst-case scenarios or you just aren’t trying.
I'm guessing 115.
More Saunders playing time, more Smoak, more Branyan, less Griffey, less Kotchman than in the first 62% of the year. And you kind of have to think Lopez will hit a few more than he has.
Career PA/HR for Figgy:
145! I would have guessed more than that! Man he’s sucked this year. Though I suppose when you don’t make contact, it’s harder to hit dingers.
Mariners/D Broncos/BSU Broncos fan in Seattle
The first rule of Lookout Landing is...
by appleshampoo on Jul 27, 2010 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions
I voted Yes as well.
This team is bound to regress in a good way. Plus, Smoak, Saunders, Branyan, had little or no time in the first half.
I expect Justin Smoak to hit about 12 dingers between now and Oct. 1. They’re going to average 415 feet. I’m also expecting a game in which Saunders, Branyan and Smoak all go yard. (I don’t really expect these these, but this is what the optimist in me thinks. I do think that the team will crack 100 HR this season though.)
I'm kinda expecting Lopez and Bradley to a little bit better for the remainder.
Plus the big 3 of Saunders, Smoak, and Branyan to pull us over 100. Although I think it’d be more fun to hit 100 exactly than go over.
Voted no.
We trade Branyan, and Guti heats up enough to give us exactly 99.
According to my calculations, your problem doesn't exist.

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