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Season of Disappointments

2010 has sucked. The Red Sox got a version of Beltre we had only dreamed of, the White Sox saw Declining Rios transform into Super Rios, and the Twins are watching Liriano try to win a Cy Young. The Mariners got, what, Jason Vargas and Doug Fister showing the world they might stick around in the back end of a rotation for a few years? Hey look, Michael Saunders is third of M's position players in WAR! ...with a .315 wOBA. No, we didn't get any magical, miracle seasons from unsuspecting heroes. We didn't even get to see something cool like Jose Bautista lead the league in home runs just a year after being traded for a PTBNL.

So to celebrate a season of disappointments, I'm going to count down my 5 most disappointing Mariners of 2010.

Star-divide

5. Milton Bradley

I never expected Bradley to be a superstar like he was with Texas, but I certainly expected him to wOBA something like .340. Instead, we got sub-.300 wOBA Bradley. Since 2002 he has never had a lower walk rate, a higher strikeout rate, and none of the power he lost last year has returned. When Bradley was a premium hitter he was a patient batter who didn't strike out all too much, made solid contact, and could even steal a few bases and knock a few homeruns out. The contact skill has taken a nosedive, and now it looks like the best we can expect going forward is something like a league average hitter, hoping he regains some of his lost walks, strikes out a bit less, and gets on base at a .350 clip. I don't think I'm the only one who's slightly disappointed at the lack of non-baseball incidents, either. But all-in-all, it's hard for me to be too disappointed because hey we got him for a few million bucks and got rid of Silva in the process. 

4. Ryan Rowland-Smith

You tricked me, Ryan. You fooled me into coming into 2010 thinking that you were something more than a #5 starter. I honestly thought you limited walks just enough and struck out just enough people to be something that almost resembles average. I like you, Hyphen. I like you the person, the personality, the guy who responds to both his fans and his foes on Twitter in a classy way. But I don't like watching a pitcher with a HR/9 higher than his K/BB. I thought you would be able to hold down the fort after Lee and Felix pitched, making series sweeps with you three going seem relatively easy. Go back to being a reliever, and see if you can strike people out again, because it's just not working having you as a starter and I have zero confidence that you'll put up even one good outing this season.

3. Ken Griffey Jr.

I was always a bigger fan of A-Rod, Randy Johnson, Edgar Martinez, and then even liked Mike Cameron more than Griffey. I can understand the ridiculous love that people have for this guy, but the expectations at the ballpark seemed a little too high. He wasn't going to save the Mariners again, and for those that came to the ballpark to watch "The Kid" play one more time, they were probably going to be disappointed. But there was that chance he would put that swing on the ball one more time, that beautiful swing Seattleites have grown to love, the swing some say is the prettiest lefty swing ever, and hit one more home run. He did that successfully in 2009, hitting a HR more often than once every 13 at bats, and he pleased a lot of fans even if he was just a replacement level player. In 2010 that all fell apart. He went from replacement level DH to a player who catch up to a fastball any more in a hurry. Maybe he still pleased some fans this year, but it's hard to watch when a guy grounds out to the right side more often than Kotchman, can't play a defensive position, and has less homeruns than Eliezer Alfonso. I didn't like that he came back in 2010 because I thought we could win and a replacement level DH doesn't help us win, but I didn't expect this.

2. Jose Lopez

If Lopez wasn't having his best fielding season since he started eating Doritos, he would be a negative WAR player in 2010. After consistently being a 2 win player for a couple years and seemingly making a smooth transition to 3B, it seemed he was going to turn from an average player to an average player with versatility! That doesn't mean much, but it's fun and I thought maybe it could increase his trade value. Instead, his trade value went from something to negative by putting up the same slash line he did in 2004 as a rookie except with less power. Lopez would be higher on this list if he ever gave me the impression he was hard worker or intelligent, but returning to rookie form was beyond what I had imagined.

1. Chone Figgins

I was really excited when we signed Figgins; premium defender, .360 career OBP, and running wild. The embodiment of Angels baseball and the most annoying guy on a roster of annoying guys. Well, that's one thing that hasn't changed, and that's why he's #1 on the list. The walks are still there, but he's not driving the ball with any authority. He doesn't need a ton of extra base hits to be a successful hitter, but he does have to hit the ball hard enough to keep it out of the reach of defenders. A singles hitter who walks a lot, runs a lot, and plays good defense is incredibly entertaining. A hitter whose fly balls are always outs and is grounding into double plays at a ridiculous rate is incredibly frustrating. Oh yeah, and the defense is gone, too. Hopefully Figgins will turn things around once we dump Lopez and move him back to third. Even with this incredibly disappointing season, I have more faith in Figgins than Lopez going forward. But for the fact that Figgins went from 6.1 WAR to below replacement in one season, he wins the most disappointing award. Congratulations, now stop being shitty.

~Runners up~

Brandon League - Stopped throwing his best pitch, and the other Brandon is now really good which makes this one more annoying.
Jack Wilson - I hated the deal at the time, and he's turned out to be shitty. Now will you guys agree with me that we should have gone with Scutaro?
Jack Zduriencik - Texeira is better than any of our relievers, awful roster decisions to start the season, dumping Byrnes prematurely... He might be on the top 5, but this post is about the players primarily.
David Aardsma - You weren't supposed to regress this hard.
Ian Snell - I was really excited when we traded for him because I've always kind of followed the Pirates and was aware of his pretty great 2007... 2009 tempered that excitement, and 2010 killed it.

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Bradley's contact skills haven't taken a nose dive.

His swinging strike rate is 11.1% this year compared to 11.2% during his great 2008 season. His contact rate is the same as his 2008 season. Hell, he’s even making more contact on pitches out of the zone. The major problem is that he is swinging at 24.8% of pitches out of the zone. The only way to really rectify that with his K rate would be to assume that pitchers are throwing him more non-strikes on two strike counts and letting him get himself out.

by abender20 on Jul 23, 2010 8:18 AM PDT reply actions  

I think I was unclear and chose the wrong wording...

I meant his contact in general seems to be weaker, he doesn’t seem to be making solid contact very often. LD rate is down, infield flies are up, flyballs are up in general, and BABIP is way down as a result.

by lailaihei on Jul 23, 2010 8:36 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

If you were disappointed by Griffey I'd suggest that your expectations were a bit high to start with

But there was that chance he would put that swing on the ball one more time, that beautiful swing Seattleites have grown to love, the swing some say is the prettiest lefty swing ever, and hit one more home run.

No, there really wasn’t. He didn’t even have warning track power.

by pdb on Jul 23, 2010 8:31 AM PDT reply actions  

IN the off season, no

but once the season started, it was pretty obvious that what little power he had left was completely gone and to expect anything resembling 2009 would have been…overly optimistic.

by pdb on Jul 23, 2010 8:48 AM PDT up reply actions  

Early in the season, I want to say in early April sometime

He hit a ball to centerfield with that beautiful swing, that in his prime would have ended up on the terrace. It died about 20 feet short of the warning track. That’s kinda when I knew.

by pdb on Jul 23, 2010 8:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

I didn't buy that he would be the same hitter either.

I thought it would be fewer HRs, more singles, and hovering around a .300-.310 wOBA. I was disappointed he was back, but I never expected it to be this bad.

Anyway I approached this post from a preseason expectation vs actual performance angle.

by lailaihei on Jul 23, 2010 8:53 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

He was extremely entertaining, and I was sad when he left.

I also don’t think he was utilized properly, and he was not the 25th best player on the team at the time we got rid of him. No, he’s not a major league player any more, but in a lost season making him the scapegoat seemed a little unfair.

But yeah I put that there as a joke, I didn’t think anything less of Z and crew because of that decision.

by lailaihei on Jul 23, 2010 9:01 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

I don't think he was ever really made a scapegoat

But honestly, that was one of my favorite Z decisions of this year. I really couldn’t stand Byrnes and at first found his antics entertaining… then they got downright weird and annoying.

by E-Lizz on Jul 23, 2010 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

Eric Byrnes was really entertaining.

I remember the botched squeeze bunt, and a lot of people were really angry, but I couldn’t stop laughing. And the bicycle only added to the hilarity of the story. I was seriously disappointed when he was released. I kinda wish he was still on the team…

Milton Bradley is my hero.

by SeaKoala on Jul 24, 2010 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

Again, this is a post about pre-season expectations compared with performance thus far.

I’m a huge Zduriencik fan, and still think we have one of the top 5 FOs in baseball, but he has made some questionable moves this year. The whole roster fiasco with the lack of flexibility, dumping one of our best relievers (who had virtually no service time), and giving Wakamatsu too much control (Lopez batting cleanup in 64/96 games, etc)… He hasn’t made any huge blunders, although League for Morrow looks like it might become one, and he isn’t the cause of our failure this season. The cause of our failure is, obviously, the disappointing performances from a number of our players. Zduriencik has disappointed me with these moves, though, and that’s why he’s on a list of disappointing people.

Are you really not disappointed with those moves or were you expecting better? That’s the point, I was expecting better and I didn’t get it, hence disappointment.

by lailaihei on Jul 23, 2010 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions  

I expected one of two scenarios coming into this season and this was one of them.

Maybe we didn’t arrive here exactly as I expected, but the reasons are pretty much the same; this roster had a huge amount of risk built in.

I didn’t like the Morrow trade when it happened but I also get the feeling that Morrow is a whiny little bitch and it was best for all involved that he move on. No GM in the game (aside from maybe Billy Beane, who is an asshole and really isn’t all that special as a GM at this point) would tell their manager who hits where in the lineup. I also suspect that Wakamatsu had a huge amount of influence on the way the roster ended up looking and the Teixeira DFA, and while that doesn’t make me happy I think that Zduriencik is smart enough that he will learn from his mistakes.

Yeah, this season has sucked and been disappointing but I don’t see how you couldn’t have seen it as at least a realistic possibility coming in. We’re still in far better shape as an organization than we were a year and a half ago. We’re arguably in better shape as an organization now than we were at the end of last season.

by Aaron Campeau on Jul 23, 2010 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

If you thought we had more than a 20% chance to be this bad entering the season, you were one of the more pessimistic Mariner fans.

A ton of players fell off a cliff, we had only a couple breakthrough performances and they have been sustained mostly by luck. Again, I’m not blaming Zduriencik for the season, I’m blaming him for the decisions he has made. If we were in contention and he still made dumb decisions I would still have been disappointed. The results this season are not part of my disappointment with the FO.

by lailaihei on Jul 23, 2010 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions  

In the preseason LL poll, I voted for 73-75 wins. Everything had to go just about right for contention and I couldn't see it all happening.

Yeah, we ended up with the 15th percentile outcome for the season instead of the 85-90 we would have needed to beat Texas.

by abender20 on Jul 23, 2010 9:53 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'm fine with being in the minority most of the time because the majority quite often have no idea what they're talking about.

The decisions he’s made that you’re calling dumb are fairly minor compared to the decision he’s made that have turned out well.

by Aaron Campeau on Jul 23, 2010 9:55 AM PDT up reply actions  

Still worse than my expectations of his decision making abilities.

Maybe he’s done about what you expected, but after the JJ Putz trade and Cliff Lee trade, as well as the Branyan experiment… I thought we may have the best FO in baseball. I had high expectations for Z and crew, that’s why I was disappointed by him.

by lailaihei on Jul 23, 2010 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

There was no way they were ever better than the Rays, but they're really damned good.

If you thought he was never going to make a move you didn’t like, well, that’s kinda your fault.

by Aaron Campeau on Jul 23, 2010 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

High expectations have to be tempered with the realization that nothing's instant though

Go read HumbledFan’s post about perceptions of success. He talks about how these things take time, and he makes some good points. Z had a lot of deadwood to clear out, and expecting good moves to pay instant dividends in baseball is often setting yourself up for failure.

by pdb on Jul 23, 2010 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions  

Somebody here knows the rule 5 rules better than I do, but they decided they needed to get rid of a reliever and they couldn't just send Tex down to the minors.

I like him but he’s become vilified in Seattle by some fans for no good reason at all. A.) He’s a reliever. B.) He’s the exact same reliever in Kansas City as he as in Seattle. Below average. His FIP is actually higher as a Royal.

Let’s move on from him.

by Kenneth Arthur on Jul 23, 2010 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

You can't ignore the fact that he's in the 80th percentile of relievers in GB/FB.

Not taken into account in xFIP. He’s also making league minimum and will for the next two years.

by lailaihei on Jul 23, 2010 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

He's 92nd amongst relievers with minimum 30 ip in xFIP.

Yeah, that makes him our 3rd best reliever in xFIP. No, it doesn’t keep me up at nights.

by Kenneth Arthur on Jul 23, 2010 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

You can't take just xFIP... Aardsma doesn't get ground balls.

Anyway, it’s not about how good he is, it’s that we dumped a useful player who projects to be worth probably ~1-2 WAR over his pre-arb years and making league minimum. Dumping useful players with millions of dollars of equity for nothing is not good decision making.

by lailaihei on Jul 23, 2010 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions  

Trading spare parts for Cliff Lee was a brilliant move.

Trading Cliff Lee for a Smoak level player with the market the way it is/was, not that difficult.

by lailaihei on Jul 23, 2010 10:17 AM PDT up reply actions  

Well, if the Yankees really offered Montero and company as reported, then yeah there were deals out there.

A top 5 pitcher in baseball on a bargain contract attached to 2 draft picks with 17 teams within 5 games of first place of their division that would love to have him… It’s not that hard to imagine that offers were coming in from many of those teams.

by lailaihei on Jul 23, 2010 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions  

Given that we didn't hear about Mark Lowe until the last minute

I have to wonder if the reported Yankees deal had other players leaving our organization in order to get Montero.

by BrianL on Jul 23, 2010 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

That is true.

I don’t think trading Lee for Smoak was even in the top 5 of Zduriencik moves thus far, though in terms of value added.

by lailaihei on Jul 23, 2010 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions  

The fact we got someone like Smoak for Cliff Lee, clearly a rent-a-pitcher, is amazing to me.

Cliff Lee was a win-now trade that was parlayed into a pretty awesome build-for-the-future trade.

by BrianL on Jul 23, 2010 11:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

You see, I never thought of it like that

I never thought Jack looked at it as if it was a “win now” strategy or that he was going “all in”. I think he was presented with an opportunity to make his ballclub better and he took advantage of it, He wasn’t sacrificing the future because it was a move that not only helped the club now, but also helped them in the future.

by nathaniel dawson on Jul 23, 2010 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

I prefer to look at it from the "value added" standpoint.

Three mediocre prospects for Cliff Lee plus two draft picks.
That adds something like $25 million of value to the organization.

Cliff Lee, Mark Lowe, 2 draft picks, and cash for Smoak, a mediocre prospect, and organizational filler.
That is pretty close to a wash, equity added to both teams (the way trades should work), because Texas values now wins more than we do.

by lailaihei on Jul 23, 2010 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions  

Why don't we just skip all the middle stuff and say that Jack Z traded three mediocre prospects for Justin Smoak and three mediocre prospects and call the whole thing brilliant?

He saw two scenarios when he traded for Lee: compete for the playoffs or get some real hitting talent into the organization if the first part doesn’t work out. He made the market work for him, he banked on Lee being dominant in Safeco and in him being easily the most attractive trading chip available and he thought of all that when he acquired Lee then he upped the ante all the way to Smoak, most likely the player he coveted more than any other.

by Kenneth Arthur on Jul 23, 2010 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions  

At some point I think Zduriencik has to step in and tell Wakamatsu to stop batting Lopez cleanup.

Lineup construction doesn’t matter too much, but when your ~worst hitter in the spot where your ~best hitter is supposed to go, that’s a tangible difference.

by lailaihei on Jul 23, 2010 9:55 AM PDT up reply actions  

I agree. all the other blunders in managing this roster put us into a situation where we were forced to trade Lee.

… The return, of course, is uncertain but undoubtedly better than what we gave up to get Lee. However, any leeway that Z had gotten from the fans before should all but be used up. The plan WASN’T all that solid (and trading a SP with potential for a middle reliever with only one season of good evidence BEFORE you have fleshed out a competitive lineup is an unthinkable blunder) and the future looks really hazy at the moment.

Damn, my eyeball tastes good.

by Gekko Mojo on Jul 26, 2010 7:28 AM PDT up reply actions  

An unthinkable blunder?

You of course arrived at that conclusion using evidence gleaned from your years of front-office experience, your many opportunities to construct a roster, and your proven track record at building successful baseball teams WAIT WHAT YOU JUST LISTEN TO KJR AND WATCH ESPN OH GOD PLEASE MAKE IT STOP

by pdb on Jul 26, 2010 7:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

Based on the budget situation, Z has had to make the big moves where he could and smart risks elsewhere.

The big moves have worked out, for the most part (Guti and Lee X2 on the good results side of the ledger, Figgins on the bad). The smart risks worked last year and have backfired this year. That doesn’t mean Z’s strategy was unsound.

The Morrow/League trade was probably my least favorite of the major-ish moves at the time, and it hasn’t looked great so far. But I think at least part of this has to go down to usage – for those at the get-together over the off-season, can you imagine Z or Jeff Kingston wanting Brandon League to throw his splitter less often?

by Chris Hafner on Jul 26, 2010 8:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

"five and a half years of Justin Smoak."

I’ve seen this a lot, but I’m almost positive It’s six and a half. He has a good chance of being a Super Two and reaching arbitration early, but I think it’s impossible for him to get credit for a full year in 2010. The Rangers called him up three or four days after the cutoff date. He’s ours through 2016. Unless I’m missing something.

by Teej on Jul 23, 2010 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

Argh

Chip Kelly is my shepherd, there is nothing I shall want.

by qrsouther on Jul 23, 2010 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

In response to the general debate in this thread

We don’t know the ratio of the responsibility GMZ and Wak share for roster decisions.

Every FO has decisions go wrong, and every FO gets unlucky. It happens. K-Tex is not a big deal, but it’s a minor annoyance in a season full of slightly annoying roster/coaching decisions that add up to “disappointing” for me.

IMO, I would place the whole FO/coaching/managerial staff on the Honorable Mention list for the following reasons:

Sean White
Texeira
Sweeney
Junior
Lopez batting 4th
Bullpen usage
Baserunning gaffes

I’m aware that baserunning might not have much to do with coaching, but hell, there’s blood on someone’s hands for that, and I’m loathe to put it all on the players.

by HititHere on Jul 23, 2010 10:10 AM PDT reply actions  

Theoretically, yeah.

Though that assumes your players aren’t totally braindead and are listening to the base coach’s instructions. Who knows?

by HititHere on Jul 23, 2010 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

So you hated the deal for Jack Wilson but you loved the idea of getting Snell?

I’m not sure if that means you liked the deal or disliked it.

Chone Figgins was more like 6.8 WAR last season when you include baserunning. Makes it all the more puzzling now.

by nathaniel dawson on Jul 23, 2010 1:30 PM PDT reply actions  

Ah, OK.

I wasn’t thinking of the contract offer to Wilson. I can see how those are two different things. I actually didn’t mind the contract, but I didn’t particularly like the original deal.

by nathaniel dawson on Jul 25, 2010 5:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

Jose might be a disappointment if I had any expectations whatsoever.

Turns out that Jose, you are who we thought you were.

According to my calculations, your problem doesn't exist.

by the other side on Jul 23, 2010 2:42 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

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