Series Preview: Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners

by Matthew on Jul 19, 2010 2:00 PM PDT in Seattle Mariners Previews

Seattle: 36-56
Chicago: 50-41

	MARINERS	Δ Ms	WHITE SOX	EDGE
HITTING (wOBA)	-102.9 (29th)	-7.3	-12.6 (20th)	Chicago
FIELDING (UZR)	16.4 (8th)	0.0	-9.8 (21st)	Seattle
ROTATION (tRA)	10.2 (14th)	3.1	37.5 (2nd)	Chicago
BULLPEN (tRA)	-24.4 (29th)	1.4	19.7 (5th)	Chicago
OVERALL(RAA)	-100.8 (26th)	-11.2	34.8 (13th)	CHICAGO

Credit to the pitchers for the White Sox holding the lead in the AL Central so far. Three of the big successes for Chicago on the mound this season have been John Danks and Gavin Floyd who have both increased their ground ball rates and J.J. Putz who is pitching like 2006-Putz again. Danks and Floyd are scheduled to start this series and I would be amazed if we missed Putz completely.

As a note of caution, the Mariner hitters are on the verge of falling below the Astros for dead last in the league. Another series like this past one and it could flip. The Mariners struggled through May the victim of some cripplingly bad luck. The Mariners are struggling through July because they're sucking. I think it is vitally important that we distinguish those two.

Mon Jul 19, 19:10: David Pauley vs. Dan Hudson

Tue Jul 20, 19:10: Doug Fister vs. John Danks*

Wed Jul 21, 19:10: Felix Hernandez vs. Gavin Floyd

Dan Hudson is Jake Peavy's replacement who has been pitching pretty well down in Triple-A and went all the way from A-ball to the Major Leagues last season before heading back down. He should be interesting to take a look at. David Pauley is a lot less interesting, but he is on our team so that counts for something. Seven in fact. It counts for seven things.

The risk that a pitcher like Doug Fister faces is that sometimes he has outings like the one against the Angels. While it certainly seemed like a poor outing, Fister faced 28 hitters and walked only one and avoided any home runs. Overall it was a solid effort from Fister but sometimes you allow a .480 BABIP and when you do not remove many hitters via strikeout than you are susceptible to those hits stringing together into lots of runs.

David Pauley

Doug Fister

Felix Hernandez

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	52%	90	40	35	45
Curve	20%	76	55	35	55
Change	13%	81	80	50	20
Slider	8%	83	30	80	80
Sinker	7%	90	20	80	60
Overall	--	--	55	35	50

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	58%	88	20	65	60
Change	19%	81	40	80	65
Curve	9%	75	55	25	75
Sinker	8%	88	25	50	50
Slider	7%	83	30	80	45
Overall	--	--	20	70	65

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	69%	94	75	60	75
Curve	13%	83	60	50	70
Change	9%	88	75	75	80
Slider	9%	87	75	70	75
Overall	--	--	75	60	75

Dan Hudson

John Danks

Gavin Floyd

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	65%	93	70	35	25
Change	22%	84	70	45	20
Slider	9%	83	25	50	20
Overall	--	--	60	35	20

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	54%	91	75	45	45
Change	22%	83	75	75	65
Sinker	10%	88	65	55	60
Slider	9%	85	40	65	70
Curve	6%	77	25	30	35
Overall	--	--	75	60	55

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	46%	92	45	55	45
Curve	18%	80	70	35	70
Sinker	16%	88	70	55	60
Slider	11%	85	75	80	70
Change	9%	84	60	45	50
Overall	--	--	70	50	55

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Comments

I see no way that we don't win at least 3 games in this series.

by Robert on Jul 19, 2010 2:05 PM PDT reply actions

What a weird team we have.

There are two positive aspects about this team and we still come out with 100 runs below average. Awesome.

by ThundaPC on Jul 19, 2010 2:36 PM PDT reply actions

Well, they're almost last in hitting, which is half the game.

On the run prevention side, the defensive and starters being above average is almost completely eliminated by the suckitude of the bullpen.

by CMC_Stags on Jul 19, 2010 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions

2006 Putz was one of the great seasons a closer has put up the last 15 years.

He’s not quite that good this year, but I’m astounded at how close he is.

Haha, Mets.

by Fuckmikereilly on Jul 19, 2010 2:48 PM PDT reply actions

Thanks again for throwing Vargas in...

by CMC_Stags on Jul 19, 2010 2:51 PM PDT up reply actions

I was looking at Putz's numbers, which got me looking at just how good relievers can be.

I read this excellent article on Beyond the Boxscore about Hall of Fame relievers, but I noticed that Mariano Rivera, the best reliever of all time, has 51.8 career WAR according to Rally and 36.0 WAR according to Fangraphs. There’s a similar discrepency in Trevor Hoffman’s numbers (30.5 vs. 22.6) and JJ Putz’s numbers (10.5 vs. 7.7). What’s going here? I assume they’re weighting the leverage differently, but I’m not really sure. And which one is a more reliable – Fangraphs’ or Rally’s?

by Decatur on Jul 19, 2010 2:56 PM PDT reply actions

2010
HITTING (wOBA)……….-102.9 (29th)
FIELDING (UZR)……….16.4 (8th)
ROTATION (tRA)………..10.2 (14th)
BULLPEN (tRA)…………-24.4 (29th)
OVERALL………………..-100.8 (26th)

by ThundaPC on Jul 19, 2010 3:44 PM PDT reply actions