You Tell Me If You Think This Is Luck
by Jeff Sullivan on Jul 19, 2010 11:48 AM PDT
in Seattle Mariners Stats
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PrintA Chone Figgins comparison, courtesy of Texas Leaguers. Data through July 18th for both.
Or, if you prefer:
It's easy to look at Figgins' numbers and say, "oh, the BABIP is way down, so he's just getting unlucky." But the spray chart is the picture of a guy who isn't hitting the ball as hard in 2010 as he was in 2009. Following visual observation, many of us have wondered how this hitter put up last year's numbers. Answer: he didn't. A better version of this hitter put up last year's numbers.
What's encouraging is that Figgins had a season very much like this one in 2008, sandwiched between a very productive 2007 and a very productive 2009. What's mystifying is how he's gone from hitting the ball with some authority to hitting the ball with no authority to hitting the ball with some authority to hitting the ball with no authority. Veteran consistency. It's overstated.
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He hit it onto the roof!
by Eyebrows on Jul 19, 2010 11:59 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
Don't you get it?
Jeff is saying that Figgins is going to be awesome in 2011 and 2013. Odd year = 6 win player, guaranteed!
by Eyebrows on Jul 19, 2010 12:00 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
If Chone Figgins and Deion Sanders are talking in a room with no lights I can't tell them apart
by lemonverbena on Jul 19, 2010 11:55 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Racist!
Har har.
Milton Bradley apologist
by sanford_and_son on Jul 19, 2010 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions
If he's like me...
He’s not racist because he hates everyone equally.
Is this in response to Dave's recent tweet?
His BABIP is just 80 points lower than last year. That’s not pressing – thats a slump.
It's not a response if it comes from their shared brain
by lemonverbena on Jul 19, 2010 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions
Talking to yourself is still a conversation.
by Drew_D on Jul 19, 2010 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions 5 recs
But sex with an imaginary friend is still just masturbation
Rooting for lovable losers since 1984.
by seattlecougar on Jul 19, 2010 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
What sucks is that he has also been awful in the field
Let’s hope he can bounce back like McLemore did
I think he's just not a very good second baseman.
If he can move back to third and give some defensive value, he at least wouldn’t be a total loss. Like a $36 million dollar Jack Hannahan.
by Fuckmikereilly on Jul 19, 2010 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions
I wonder though. It appeared he wasn't a very good 3rd baseman when he started playing their in 2006/2007. And then he improved those defensive numbers in 2008/2009.
Another year there, he may show improvement. However, it still looks like we never set him up to play 2nd base long term.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jul 19, 2010 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions
It seems that a lot of his struggles/errors have come when he's moving to his left.
I don’t have the data to support this, just eyeballing it. But that seems odd, since a good defensive third baseman would need to be good moving to his left.
Every time you masturbate... God kills a kitten? Fuck kittens.
by Matt Erickson on Jul 19, 2010 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions
I remember seeing a lot of people saying that UZR can be misleading without at least a few years of data to look at.
Is this true? If so, how can we know how Figgins has been defensively and why would there be a stat called UZR/150 if a SSS is misleading?
Boy I sure am glad that we changed the site logo.
by Robert on Jul 19, 2010 12:02 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Figgins' career ISO is .092, but the trend is not good.
Fangraphs of his ISO here.
His ISO was within 21 points of that average every season but two. Unfortunately, those two are 2008 and 2010.
His LD rate is also 3.5 percentage points below his career average (19.8% to 23.3%) with almost all the difference going into ground balls. It just seems that so far he is hitting it on the ground more which is resulting in a lower BABIP overall as well as a drop in ISO.
Ground balls have a higher BABIP...
but they would impact his ISO. Fewer line drives definitely hurt the BABIP, but I think he also just has a lower than usual BABIP on all of his batted ball types.
by Avery Bowron on Jul 19, 2010 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions
Wasn't there a lot of hulabaloo about a new conditioning program implemented in the off season?
I’m reaching for systemic scapegoats here to explain the team’s gigantic power outage. Groundskeepers using kryptonite fertilizer? Dining hall serving Arsenic laced eggs? Gremlins?
I think that was more for the prospects than the pros
but certainly some bi leaguers got in on that.
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jul 19, 2010 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions
Bi leaguers?
I’d hope what players do in their free time and who they date wouldn’t affect on-field performance that much.
by Inkara1 on Jul 19, 2010 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
AKA the Mike Piazza Caucus
aka Piazza Cauc!
by lemonverbena on Jul 19, 2010 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions
For the thousandth time
That program was mandatory for the Minor Leaguers* and NOT for the Major Leaguers with reports being that only a handful took part voluntarily.
*who you might notice are on the whole having a pretty solid 2010.
by Matthew on Jul 19, 2010 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Hey, I didn't have to do it this time.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Jul 19, 2010 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions
Where are the conspiracy theorists?
Baseball needs more of those. Clearly Figgins is a double agent. Also, take note that the doctor who operated on Bedard is the Angels’ team physician. I bet he left a scalpel in his shoulder.
by Snuffleupagus on Jul 19, 2010 12:33 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
This is baseball, we don't need conspiracies, we need superstition.
I’m going to go with by winning the same number of games in 2001 as the 1906 Cubs we took on the Cubs’ curse.
In my head Matthew and Jeff are the Hardly Boys.
by Robert on Jul 19, 2010 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions 5 recs
Hardly Ever Not Being Awesome Boys
is more like it
by Matthew on Jul 19, 2010 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
So, basically, we have a better, more expensive version of Loafie
(in that Figgins is a better player when he’s at his peak, but still has the prolonged periods of being crap)
Well, that’s annoying.
by eponymous_coward on Jul 19, 2010 12:59 PM PDT reply actions
Watching Figgins, its not really a surprise to watch him hit like he has hit this year.
I am more surprised he ever has done as well as he did in the past. He must have been doing something drastically different before because I can not see how the current Figgins hits the ball anywhere near the outfield wall.
He's done it a few times this year
That’s proof of concept. I just can’t imagine him doing it with consistency.
by Jeff Sullivan on Jul 19, 2010 1:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah I just look at the style of hitter that he is and its tough to see how it works
I also don’t understand how he can walk so often without having any power at the plate. Maybe its proof pitchers aren’t that good at throwing strikes.
by Edgar for Pres on Jul 19, 2010 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions
He's never going to derive enough value with his bat alone to be good offensively. He isn't Ichiro.
He gets there by being a slappy speedy spray hitter while also walking a lot.
He's been an above average hitter for his whole career
He’s been up and down, but he has proven that he can give value with his bat. With the way you worded it, I’m not sure whether you’re excluding his walks as part of his batting value, so maybe we’re just not thinking about it the same way. He should be a guy that can give you value offensively by getting on base and running the bases well.
Not at a high enough level that he’s a plus when he’s having a down year, though.
by nathaniel dawson on Jul 19, 2010 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions
I separated his hitting from his walking because the point of Jeff's piece was to look at his hitting.
He’s walking quite a bit. 49 walks for a guy who isn’t any threat to drive the ball is pretty crazy.
He's also 3 feet tall and his strike zone is the size of Gary Coleman's schlong..
...and now I'm here
by CapSea on Jul 19, 2010 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Excelent point.
I’ve long suspected that the reason players seem to get worse when the come here is that they no longer get to face the Mariners.
by wetzelcoal on Jul 19, 2010 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
That's terrifying
He has hit, at MOST, 2 balls that have reached the warning track this year.
Maybe defenders are pulling an insulting little-league trick and moving way up in the OF when Chone comes to the plate, so not even his little bloopers turn into hits. Because he sure can’t get it over anyone’s head.
I can remember at least three to the track, and I was there for one of them
by Graham MacAree on Jul 19, 2010 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions
My memory might be lying, but I think he hit a ball off the wall on the fly in Kansas City
by Jeff Sullivan on Jul 19, 2010 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions
And in Chicago
At least one in Safeco too
by Graham MacAree on Jul 19, 2010 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions
My bad. I was forgetting that the outfield in Safeco is enormous.
So balls that die before the track in Safeco could be warning-trackers on the road.
Chone Figgins' left-handed swing is fucked up right now
It seems panicked, non-committal, arms-only, unbalanced, slow motion, pick your adjective…
Which is not how it looked here: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=6752813
Whatever the root problem is, it’s resulting in the sweet spot not finding the baseball. Obviously this is going to result in fewer line drives, shorter distances, more “oh shit, my attempt to hit that pitch totally sucked” grounders, and a lower BABIP. The question for me is, can he un-fuck his swing and regain some of his missing bat speed? If not, we’re boned.
How about lefty righty comparison? Could be just from the left side.
by lailaihei on Jul 19, 2010 1:27 PM PDT reply actions 5 recs
Seeing it now.
That was strange. At first they all said Data Not Found.
by Fuckmikereilly on Jul 19, 2010 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions
Wait, what? It says something besides Data Not Found?
by seattlesundevil on Jul 19, 2010 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Now mine says No Data Found again.
But for quite a while, I could see it…very bizarre.
by Fuckmikereilly on Jul 19, 2010 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions
Could someone who can see this enlighten us?
He’s clearly worse from the left side?
Does it ever happen that a professional level switch hitter abandons hitting from one side of the plate?
by Snuffleupagus on Jul 19, 2010 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions
This evidence is pretty damning, but I still can't decide if Figgins is really a huge bust or we, the internet dork Mariners fan, just got our hopes up too high about him.
Milton Bradley apologist
by sanford_and_son on Jul 19, 2010 1:32 PM PDT reply actions
Like we expecting another hot shot lead-off low-power hitter who gets on base a lot
and instead we got another Jack Wilson.
Milton Bradley apologist
by sanford_and_son on Jul 19, 2010 1:33 PM PDT up reply actions
It's also important to note that the dots represent where the ball was picked up, not where it landed.
Jeff has mentioned that in previous incarnations of his spray chart pieces and that’s helpful information.
by abender20 on Jul 19, 2010 1:39 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
I had forgotten that - thanks.
I wonder if the OF is playing more shallow and catching more of his soft line drives. Also, look at that cluster near the pitching mound this year. Lots of bunts and weak contact.
He hit the ball with considerably less authority in 2008 as well.
Can’t post graph due to it fucking up similarly to lailaihei’s, but you can do it yourself. He may be hitting the ball further on average in 2010 than he did in 2008.
I read it too!
I forget a lot in 20 minutes.
by Fuckmikereilly on Jul 19, 2010 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions
What are the MLB-wide offensive numbers from 2009 and 2010?
We’ve had 5 no-hitters this season.
Bud wants shorter games.
There has been some clandestine fiddling with the construction of the ball over the last couple of decades.
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
Also looks like he's either swinging later or that he's trying to drive the ball a lot more
I’m seeing a huge difference in the amount of balls hit that are to left field this year vs. a more “even” spray last year. Granted he is a switch hitter, there shouldn’t be much of a difference
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